Statistical characterisation of the growth and spatial scales of the substorm onset arc

We present the first multi-event study of the spatial and temporal structuring of the aurora to provide statistical evidence of the near-Earth plasma instability which causes the substorm onset arc. Using data from ground-based auroral imagers, we study repeatable signatures of along-arc auroral beads, which are thought to represent the ionospheric projection of magnetospheric instability in the near-Earth plasma sheet. We show that the growth and spatial scales of these wave-like fluctuations are similar across multiple events, indicating that each sudden auroral brightening has a common explanation. We find statistically that growth rates for auroral beads peak at low wavenumber with the most unstable spatial scales mapping to an azimuthal wavelength λ≈1700 − 2500 km in the equatorial magnetosphere at around 9-12 RE. We compare growth rates and spatial scales with a range of theoretical predictions of magnetotail instabilities, including the cross-field current instability and the shear-flow ballooning instability. We conclude that, although the cross-field current instability can generate similar magnitude of growth rates, the range of unstable wavenumbers indicates that the shear-flow ballooning instability is the most likely explanation for our observations.

Echoes of 1992: the NAFTA negotiations and North America now

Two decades ago, Canada, Mexico, and the United States created a continental economy. The road to integration from the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement has not been a smooth one. Along the way, Mexico lived through a currency crisis, a democratic transition, and the rising challenge of Asian manufacturing. Canada stayed united despite surging Quebecois nationalism during the 1990s; since then, it has seen dramatic economic changes with the explosion of hydrocarbon production and a much stronger currency. The United States saw a stock-market bust, the shock of 9/11, and the near-collapse of its financial system. All of these events have transformed the relationships that emerged after NAFTA entered into force in 1994. Given the tremendous changes, one might be skeptical that the circumstances and details of the negotiation and ratification of NAFTA hold lessons for the future of North America. However, the road to NAFTA had its own difficulties, and many of the issues involved in the negotiations underpin today's challenges. NAFTA was conceived at a time of profound change in the international system. When Mexican leaders surveyed the world two decades ago, they saw emerging regional groupings in Europe, Asia, and South America. Faced with a lack of interest or compatibility, they instead doubled down on North America. How did Mexican leaders reconsider their national interests and redefine Mexico's role in the world in light of those transformations? Unpublished Mexican documents from SECOFI, the secretariate most involved in negotiating NAFTA, help illustrate Mexican thinking about its interests and role at that time. Combining those insights with analysis of newly available evidence from U.S. presidential archives, this paper sheds light on the negotiations that concluded two decades ago.

Institutional investors: arbitrageurs or rational trend chasers?

This paper studies the relationship between institutional investor holdings and stock misvaluation in the U.S. between 1980 and 2010. I find that institutional investors overweigh overvalued and underweigh undervalued stocks in their portfolio, taking the market portfolio as a benchmark. Cross-sectionally, institutional investors hold more overvalued stocks than undervalued stocks. The time-series studies also show that institutional ownership of overvalued portfolios increases as the portfolios' degree of overvaluation. As an investment strategy, institutional investors' ride of stock misvaluation is neither driven by the fund flows from individual investors into institutions, nor industry-specific. Consistent with the agency problem explanation, investment companies and independent investment advisors have a higher tendency to ride stock misvaluation than other institutions. There is weak evidence that institutional investors make positive profit by riding stock misvaluation. My findings challenge the models that view individual investors as noise traders and disregard the role of institutional investors in stock market misvaluation.

Impact of increasing fruit and vegetables and flavonoid intake on the human gut microbiota

Epidemiological studies have shown protective effects of fruits and vegetables (F&V) in lowering the risk of developing cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and cancers. Plant-derived dietary fibre (non-digestible polysaccharides) and/or flavonoids may mediate the observed protective effects particularly through their interaction with the gut microbiota. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake on gut microbiota, with an emphasis on the role of flavonoids, and further to explore relationships between microbiota and factors associated with CVD risk. In the study, a parallel design with 3 study groups, participants in the two intervention groups representing high-flavonoid (HF) and low flavonoid (LF) intakes were asked to increase their daily F&V intake by 2, 4 and 6 portions for a duration of 6 weeks each, while a third (control) group continued with their habitual diet. Faecal samples were collected at baseline and after each dose from 122 subjects. Faecal bacteria enumeration was performed by fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH). Correlations of dietary components, flavonoid intake and markers of CVD with bacterial numbers were also performed. A significant dose X treatment interaction was only found for Clostidium leptum-Ruminococcus bromii/flavefaciens with a significant increase after intake of 6 additional portions in the LF group. Correlation analysis of the data from all 122 subjects independent from dietary intervention indicated an inhibitory role of F&V intake, flavonoid content and sugars against the growth of potentially pathogenic clostridia. Additionally, we observed associations between certain bacterial populations and CVD risk factors including plasma TNF-α, plasma lipids and BMI/waist circumference.