Climatic impacts of fresh water hosing under Last Glacial Maximum conditions: a multi-model study

Fresh water hosing simulations, in which a fresh water flux is imposed in the North Atlantic to force fluctuations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, have been routinely performed, first to study the climatic signature of different states of this circulation, then, under present or future conditions, to investigate the potential impact of a partial melting of the Greenland ice sheet. The most compelling examples of climatic changes potentially related to AMOC abrupt variations, however, are found in high resolution palaeo-records from around the globe for the last glacial period. To study those more specifically, more and more fresh water hosing experiments have been performed under glacial conditions in the recent years. Here we compare an ensemble constituted by 11 such simulations run with 6 different climate models. All simulations follow a slightly different design, but are sufficiently close in their design to be compared. They all study the impact of a fresh water hosing imposed in the extra-tropical North Atlantic. Common features in the model responses to hosing are the cooling over the North Atlantic, extending along the sub-tropical gyre in the tropical North Atlantic, the southward shift of the Atlantic ITCZ and the weakening of the African and Indian monsoons. On the other hand, the expression of the bipolar see-saw, i.e., warming in the Southern Hemisphere, differs from model to model, with some restricting it to the South Atlantic and specific regions of the southern ocean while others simulate a widespread southern ocean warming. The relationships between the features common to most models, i.e., climate changes over the north and tropical Atlantic, African and Asian monsoon regions, are further quantified. These suggest a tight correlation between the temperature and precipitation changes over the extra-tropical North Atlantic, but different pathways for the teleconnections between the AMOC/North Atlantic region and the African and Indian monsoon regions.

A multithickness sea ice model accounting for sliding friction

A multithickness sea ice model explicitly accounting for the ridging and sliding friction contributions to sea ice stress is developed. Both ridging and sliding contributions depend on the deformation type through functions adopted from the Ukita and Moritz kinematic model of floe interaction. In contrast to most previous work, the ice strength of a uniform ice sheet of constant ice thickness is taken to be proportional to the ice thickness raised to the 3/2 power, as is revealed in discrete element simulations by Hopkins. The new multithickness sea ice model for sea ice stress has been implemented into the Los Alamos “CICE” sea ice model code and is shown to improve agreement between model predictions and observed spatial distribution of sea ice thickness in the Arctic.

Ice-stream initiation, duration and thinning on James Ross Island, northern Antarctic Peninsula

Predicting the future response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change requires an understanding of the ice streams that dominate its dynamics. Here we use cosmogenic isotope exposure-age dating (26Al, 10Be and 36Cl) of erratic boulders on ice-free land on James Ross Island, north-eastern Antarctic Peninsula, to define the evolution of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ice in the adjacent Prince Gustav Channel. These data include ice-sheet extent, thickness and dynamical behaviour. Prior to ∼18 ka, the LGM Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet extended to the continental shelf-edge and transported erratic boulders onto high-elevation mesas on James Ross Island. After ∼18 ka there was a period of rapid ice-sheet surface-lowering, coincident with the initiation of the Prince Gustav Ice Stream. This timing coincided with rapid increases in atmospheric temperature and eustatic sea-level rise around the Antarctic Peninsula. Collectively, these data provide evidence for a transition from a thick, cold-based LGM Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet to a thinner, partially warm-based ice sheet during deglaciation.

Dynamic Devensian ice flow in NE England: a sedimentological reconstruction

This study reconstructs the depositional environments that accompanied both ice advance and ice retreat of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet in NE England during the Last Glacial Maximum, and proposes three regional ice-flow phases. The Late Devensian (29–22 cal. ka BP) Tyne Gap Ice Stream initially deposited the Blackhall Till Formation during shelf-edge glaciation (Phase I). This subglacial traction till comprises several related facies, including stratified and laminated diamictons, tectonites, and sand and gravel beds deposited both in subglacial canals and in proglacial streams. Eventually, stagnation of the Tyne Gap Ice Stream led to ice-marginal sedimentation in County Durham (Phase II). During the Dimlington Stadial (21 cal. ka BP), the North Sea Lobe advanced towards the coastline of N Norfolk. This resulted initially in sandur deposition (widespread, tabular sand and gravel; the Peterlee Sand and Gravel Formation; Phase II) and ultimately in deposition of the Horden Till Formation (Phase III), a massive subglacial till. As the North Sea Lobe overrode previous formations, it thrusted and stacked sediments in County Durham, and dammed proglacial lakes between the east-coast ice, the Pennine uplands and the remaining Pennine ice. The North Sea Lobe retreated after Heinrich Event 1 (16 ka). This study highlights the complexity of ice flow during the Late Devensian glaciation of NE England, with changing environmental and oceanic conditions forcing a mobile and sensitive ice sheet.

A 2000-year annual record of snow accumulation rates for Law Dome, East Antarctica

Accurate high-resolution records of snow accumulation rates in Antarctica are crucial for estimating ice sheet mass balance and subsequent sea level change. Snowfall rates at Law Dome, East Antarctica, have been linked with regional atmospheric circulation to the mid-latitudes as well as regional Antarctic snowfall. Here, we extend the length of the Law Dome accumulation record from 750 years to 2035 years, using recent annual layer dating that extends to 22 BCE. Accumulation rates were calculated as the ratio of measured to modelled layer thicknesses, multiplied by the long-term mean accumulation rate. The modelled layer thicknesses were based on a power-law vertical strain rate profile fitted to observed annual layer thickness. The periods 380–442, 727–783 and 1970–2009 CE have above-average snow accumulation rates, while 663–704, 933–975 and 1429–1468 CE were below average, and decadal-scale snow accumulation anomalies were found to be relatively common (74 events in the 2035-year record). The calculated snow accumulation rates show good correlation with atmospheric reanalysis estimates, and significant spatial correlation over a wide expanse of East Antarctica, demonstrating that the Law Dome record captures larger-scale variability across a large region of East Antarctica well beyond the immediate vicinity of the Law Dome summit. Spectral analysis reveals periodicities in the snow accumulation record which may be related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) frequencies.

A moving point approach to model shallow ice sheets: a study case with radially-symmetrical ice sheets

Predicting the evolution of ice sheets requires numerical models able to accurately track the migration of ice sheet continental margins or grounding lines. We introduce a physically based moving point approach for the flow of ice sheets based on the conservation of local masses. This allows the ice sheet margins to be tracked explicitly and the waiting time behaviours to be modelled efficiently. A finite difference moving point scheme is derived and applied in a simplified context (continental radially-symmetrical shallow ice approximation). The scheme, which is inexpensive, is validated by comparing the results with moving-margin exact solutions and steady states. In both cases the scheme is able to track the position of the ice sheet margin with high precision.

A Glacial Geomorphological Map of Victoria Island, Canadian Arctic

Victoria Island lies at the north-western extremity of the region covered by the vast North American Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. This area is significant because it linked the interior of the LIS to the Arctic Ocean, probably via a number of ice streams. Victoria Island, however, exhibits a remarkably complex glacial landscape, with several successive generations of ice flow indicators superimposed on top of each other and often at abrupt (90 degrees) angles. This complexity represents a major challenge to those attempting to produce a detailed reconstruction of the glacial history of the region. This paper presents a map of the glacial geomorphology of Victoria Island. The map is based on analysis of Landsat Enhanced Thematic Plus (ETM+) satellite imagery and contains over 58,000 individual glacial features which include: glacial lineations, moraines (terminal, lateral, subglacial shear margin), hummocky moraine, ribbed moraine, eskers, glaciofluvial deposits, large meltwater channels, and raised shorelines. The glacial features reveal marked changes in ice flow direction and vigour over time. Moreover, the glacial geomorphology indicates a non-steady withdrawal of ice during deglaciation, with rapidly flowing ice streams focussed into the inter-island troughs and several successively younger flow patterns superimposed on older ones. It is hoped that detailed analysis of this map will lead to an improved reconstruction of the glacial history of this area which will provide other important insights, for example, with respect to the interactions between ice streaming, deglaciation and Arctic Ocean meltwater events.

The sea level conundrum: insights from paleo studies

Empirical Constraints on Future Sea Level Rise; Bern, Switzerland, 25–29 August 2008; Eustatic sea level (ESL) rise during the 21st century is perhaps the greatest threat from climate change, but its magnitude is contested. Geological records identify examples of nonlinear ice sheet response to climate forcing, suggesting a strategy for refining estimates of 21st-century sea level change. In August 2008, Past Global Changes (PAGES), International Marine Past Global Change Study (IMAGES), and the University of Bern cosponsored a workshop to address this possibility. The workshop highlighted several ways that paleoceanography studies can place limits on future sea level rise, and these are enlarged upon here.

The sea-level conundrum: case studies from palaeo-archives

Uncertainties in sea-level projections for the 21st century have focused ice sheet modelling efforts to include the processes that are thought to be contributing to the recently observed rapid changes at ice sheet margins. This effort is still in its infancy, however, leaving us unable to make reliable predictions of ice sheet responses to a warming climate if such glacier accelerations were to increase in size and frequency. The geological record, however, has long identified examples of nonlinear ice sheet response to climate forcing (Shackleton NJ, Opdyke ND. 1973. Oxygen isotope and paleomagnetic stratigraphy of equatorial Pacific core V28–239, late Pliocene to latest Pleistocene. Geological Society of America Memoirs145: 449–464; Fairbanks RG. 1989. A 17,000 year glacio-eustatic sea level record: influence of glacial melting rates on the Younger Dryas event and deep ocean circulation. Nature342: 637–642; Bard E, Hamelin B, Arnold M, Montaggioni L, Cabioch G, Faure G, Rougerie F. 1996. Sea level record from Tahiti corals and the timing of deglacial meltwater discharge. Nature382: 241–244), thus suggesting an alternative strategy for constraining the rate and magnitude of sea-level change that we might expect by the end of this century. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Some physical drivers of changes in the winter storm tracks over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean during the Holocene

The winter climate of Europe and the Mediterranean is dominated by the weather systems of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The behaviour of the storm tracks is highly variable, particularly in the eastern North Atlantic, and has a profound impact on the hydroclimate of the Mediterranean region. A deeper understanding of the storm tracks and the factors that drive them is therefore crucial for interpreting past changes in Mediterranean climate and the civilizations it has supported over the last 12 000 years (broadly the Holocene period). This paper presents a discussion of how changes in climate forcing (e.g. orbital variations, greenhouse gases, ice sheet cover) may have impacted on the ‘basic ingredients’ controlling the mid-latitude storm tracks over the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean on intermillennial time scales. Idealized simulations using the HadAM3 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) are used to explore the basic processes, while a series of timeslice simulations from a similar atmospheric GCM coupled to a thermodynamic slab ocean (HadSM3) are examined to identify the impact these drivers have on the storm track during the Holocene. The results suggest that the North Atlantic storm track has moved northward and strengthened with time since the Early to Mid-Holocene. In contrast, the Mediterranean storm track may have weakened over the same period. It is, however, emphasized that much remains still to be understood about the evolution of the North Atlantic and Mediterranean storm tracks during the Holocene period.

The last glacial cycle: transient simulations with an AOGCM

A number of transient climate runs simulating the last 120kyr have been carried out using FAMOUS, a fast atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). This is the first time such experiments have been done with a full AOGCM, providing a three-dimensional simulation of both atmosphere and ocean over this period. Our simulation thus includes internally generated temporal variability over periods from days to millennia, and physical, detailed representations of important processes such as clouds and precipitation. Although the model is fast, computational restrictions mean that the rate of change of the forcings has been increased by a factor of 10, making each experiment 12kyr long. Atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), northern hemisphere ice sheets and variations in solar radiation arising from changes in the Earth's orbit are treated as forcing factors, and are applied either separately or combined in different experiments. The long-term temperature changes on Antarctica match well with reconstructions derived from ice-core data, as does variability on timescales longer than 10 kyr. Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) cooling on Greenland is reasonably well simulated, although our simulations, which lack ice-sheet meltwater forcing, do not reproduce the abrupt, millennial scale climate shifts seen in northern hemisphere climate proxies or their slower southern hemisphere counterparts. The spatial pattern of sea surface cooling at the LGM matches proxy reconstructions reasonably well. There is significant anti-correlated variability in the strengths of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) on timescales greater than 10kyr in our experiments. We find that GHG forcing weakens the AMOC and strengthens the ACC, whilst the presence of northern hemisphere ice-sheets strengthens the AMOC and weakens the ACC. The structure of the AMOC at the LGM is found to be sensitive to the details of the ice-sheet reconstruction used. The precessional component of the orbital forcing induces ~20kyr oscillations in the AMOC and ACC, whose amplitude is mediated by changes in the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit. These forcing influences combine, to first order, in a linear fashion to produce the mean climate and ocean variability seen in the run with all forcings.

Understanding and projecting sea level change

There is intense scientific and public interest in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of sea level for the twenty-first century and beyond. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) projections, obtained by applying standard methods to the results of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Experiment, includes estimates of ocean thermal expansion, the melting of glaciers and ice caps (G&ICs), increased melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and increased precipitation over Greenland and Antarctica, partially offsetting other contributions. The AR4 recognized the potential for a rapid dynamic ice sheet response but robust methods for quantifying it were not available. Illustrative scenarios suggested additional sea level rise on the order of 10 to 20 cm or more, giving a wide range in the global averaged projections of about 20 to 80 cm by 2100. Currently, sea level is rising at a rate near the upper end of these projections. Since publication of the AR4 in 2007, biases in historical ocean temperature observations have been identified and significantly reduced, resulting in improved estimates of ocean thermal expansion. Models that include all climate forcings are in good agreement with these improved observations and indicate the importance of stratospheric aerosol loadings from volcanic eruptions. Estimates of the volumes of G&ICs and their contributions to sea level rise have improved. Results from recent (but possibly incomplete) efforts to develop improved ice sheet models should be available for the 2013 IPCC projections. Improved understanding of sea level rise is paving the way for using observations to constrain projections. Understanding of the regional variations in sea level change as a result of changes in ocean properties, wind-stress patterns, and heat and freshwater inputs into the ocean is improving. Recently, estimates of sea level changes resulting from changes in Earth's gravitational field and the solid Earth response to changes in surface loading have been included in regional projections. While potentially valuable, semi-empirical models have important limitations, and their projections should be treated with caution

High resolution Northern Hemisphere wintertime mid-latitude dynamics during the Last Glacial Maximum

Hourly winter weather of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is simulated using the Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3) on a globally resolved T170 (75 km) grid. Results are compared to a longer LGM climatological run with the same boundary conditions and monthly saves. Hourly-scale animations are used to enhance interpretations. The purpose of the study is to explore whether additional insights into ice age conditions can be gleaned by going beyond the standard employment of monthly average model statistics to infer ice age weather and climate. Results for both LGM runs indicate a decrease in North Atlantic and increase in North Pacific cyclogenesis. Storm trajectories react to the mechanical forcing of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, with Pacific storms tracking over middle Alaska and northern Canada, terminating in the Labrador Sea. This result is coincident with other model results in also showing a significant reduction in Greenland wintertime precipitation – a response supported by ice core evidence. Higher-temporal resolution puts in sharper focus the close tracking of Pacific storms along the west coast of North America. This response is consistent with increased poleward heat transport in the LGM climatological run and could help explain “early” glacial warming inferred in this region from proxy climate records. Additional analyses shows a large increase in central Asian surface gustiness that support observational inferences that upper-level winds associated with Asian- Pacific storms transported Asian dust to Greenland during the LGM.

Oxygen isotope ratios in the shell of Mytilus edulis: archives of glacier meltwater in Greenland?

Melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is accelerating and will contribute significantly to global sea level rise during the 21st century. Instrumental data on GrIS melting only cover the last few decades, and proxy data extending our knowledge into the past are vital for validating models predicting the influence of ongoing climate change. We investigated a potential meltwater proxy in Godthåbsfjord (West Greenland), where glacier meltwater causes seasonal excursions with lower oxygen isotope water (δ18Ow) values and salinity. The blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) potentially records these variations, because it precipitates its shell calcite in oxygen isotopic equilibrium with ambient seawater. As M. edulis shells are known to occur in raised shorelines and archaeological shell middens from previous Holocene warm periods, this species may be ideal in reconstructing past meltwater dynamics. We investigate its potential as a palaeo-meltwater proxy. First, we confirmed that M. edulis shell calcite oxygen isotope (δ18Oc) values are in equilibrium with ambient water and generally reflect meltwater conditions. Subsequently we investigated if this species recorded the full range of δ18Ow values occurring during the years 2007 to 2010. Results show that δ18Ow values were not recorded at very low salinities (< ~ 19), because the mussels appear to cease growing. This implies that Mytilus edulis δ18Oc values are suitable in reconstructing past meltwater amounts in most cases, but care has to be taken that shells are collected not too close to a glacier, but rather in the mid-region or mouth of the fjord. The focus of future research will expand on the geographical and temporal range of the shell measurements by sampling mussels in other fjords in Greenland along a south–north gradient, and by sampling shells from raised shorelines and archaeological shell middens from prehistoric settlements in Greenland.

Timing and depositional environments of a Middle Pleistocene glaciation of northeast England: New evidence from Warren House Gill, County Durham

At various times during the Quaternary, north-eastern England was a zone of confluence between dynamic ice lobes sourced from the Pennines, northern Scotland, the Cheviots, and Scandinavia. The region thus has some of the most complex exposures of Middle to Late Pleistocene sediments in Britain, with both interglacial and glacial sediments deposited in terrestrial and marine settings. We investigated sedimentary sequences exposed on the coastline of County Durham at Warren House Gill, and present a new model of British and Fennoscandian Ice Sheet interaction in the North Sea Basin during the Middle Pleistocene. The stratigraphy at Warren House Gill consists of a lower diamicton and upper estuarine sediments, both part of the Warren House Formation. They are separated from the overlying Weichselian Blackhall and Horden tills by a substantial unconformity. The lower diamicton of the Warren House Formation is re-interpreted here as an MIS 8 to 12 glaciomarine deposit containing ice-rafted lithics from north-eastern Scotland and the northeast North Sea, and is renamed the ‘Ash Gill Member’. It is dated by lithological comparison to the Easington Raised Beach, Middle Pleistocene Amino Acid Racemisation values, and indirectly by optically stimulated luminescence. The overlying shallow subaqueous sediments were deposited in an estuarine environment by suspension settling and bottom current activity. They are named the ‘Whitesides Member’, and form the uppermost member of the Warren House Formation. During glaciation, ice-rafted material was deposited in a marine embayment. There is no evidence of a grounded, onshore Scandinavian ice sheet in County Durham during MIS 6, which has long been held as the accepted stratigraphy. This has major implications for the currently accepted British Quaternary Stratigraphy. Combined with recent work on the Middle Pleistocene North Sea Drift from Norfolk, which is now suggested to have been deposited by a Scottish ice sheet, the presence of a Scandinavian ice sheet in eastern England at any time during the Quaternary is becoming increasingly doubtful.