Cyclic loss of open solar flux since 1868: the link to heliospheric current sheet tilt and implications for the Maunder Minimum

Open solar flux (OSF) variations can be described by the imbalance between source and loss terms. We use spacecraft and geomagnetic observations of OSF from 1868 to present and assume the OSF source, S, varies with the observed sunspot number, R. Computing the required fractional OSF loss, χ, reveals a clear solar cycle variation, in approximate phase with R. While peak R varies significantly from cycle to cycle, χ is surprisingly constant in both amplitude and waveform. Comparisons of χ with measures of heliospheric current sheet (HCS) orientation reveal a strong correlation. The cyclic nature of χ is exploited to reconstruct OSF back to the start of sunspot records in 1610. This agrees well with the available spacecraft, geomagnetic, and cosmogenic isotope observations. Assuming S is proportional to R yields near-zero OSF throughout the Maunder Minimum. However, χ becomes negative during periods of low R, particularly the most recent solar minimum, meaning OSF production is underestimated. This is related to continued coronal mass ejection (CME) activity, and therefore OSF production, throughout solar minimum, despite R falling to zero. Correcting S for this produces a better match to the recent solar minimum OSF observations. It also results in a cycling, nonzero OSF during the Maunder Minimum, in agreement with cosmogenic isotope observations. These results suggest that during the Maunder Minimum, HCS tilt cycled as over recent solar cycles, and the CME rate was roughly constant at the levels measured during the most recent two solar minima.

Predicting the arrival of high-speed solar wind streams at Earth using the STEREO Heliospheric Imagers

High-speed solar wind streams modify the Earth's geomagnetic environment, perturbing the ionosphere, modulating the flux of cosmic rays into the Earth atmosphere, and triggering substorms. Such activity can affect modern technological systems. To investigate the potential for predicting the arrival of such streams at Earth, images taken by the Heliospheric Imager (HI) on the STEREO-A spacecraft have been used to identify the onsets of high-speed solar wind streams from observations of regions of increased plasma concentrations associated with corotating interaction regions, or CIRs. In order to confirm that these transients were indeed associated with CIRs and to study their average properties, arrival times predicted from the HI images were used in a superposed epoch analysis to confirm their identity in near-Earth solar wind data obtained by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft and to observe their influence on a number of salient geophysical parameters. The results are almost identical to those of a parallel superposed epoch analysis that used the onset times of the high-speed streams derived from east/west deflections in the ACE measurements of solar wind speed to predict the arrival of such streams at Earth, assuming they corotated with the Sun with a period of 27 days. Repeating the superposed epoch analysis using restricted data sets demonstrates that this technique can provide a timely prediction of the arrival of CIRs at least 1 day ahead of their arrival at Earth and that such advanced warning can be provided from a spacecraft placed 40° ahead of Earth in its orbit.

Age related changes in speed and mechanism of adult skeletal muscle stem cell migration

Skeletal muscle undergoes a progressive age-related loss in mass and function. Preservation of muscle mass depends in part on satellite cells, the resident stem cells of skeletal muscle. Reduced satellite cell function may contribute to the age-associated decrease in muscle mass. Here we focused on characterising the effect of age on satellite cell migration. We report that aged satellite cells migrate at less than half the speed of young cells. In addition, aged cells show abnormal membrane extension and retraction characteristics required for amoeboid based cell migration. Aged satellite cells displayed low levels of integrin expression. By deploying a mathematical model approach to investigate mechanism of migration, we have found that young satellite cells move in a random ‘memoryless’ manner whereas old cells demonstrate superdiffusive tendencies. Most importantly, we show that nitric oxide, a key regulator of cell migration, reversed the loss in migration speed and reinstated the unbiased mechanism of movement in aged satellite cells. Finally we found that although Hepatocyte Growth Factor increased the rate of aged satellite cell movement it did not restore the memoryless migration characteristics displayed in young cells. Our study shows that satellite cell migration, a key component of skeletal muscle regeneration, is compromised during aging. However, we propose clinically approved drugs could be used to overcome these detrimental changes.

Solar cycle 24: what is the sun up to?

March 2012 brought the first solar and geomagnetic disturbances of any note during solar cycle 24. But perhaps what was most remarkable about these events was how unremarkable they were compared to others during the space-age, attracting attention only because solar activity had been so quiet. This follows an exceptionally low and long-lived solar cycle minimum, and so the current cycle looks likely to extend a long-term decline in solar activity that started around 1985 and that could even lead to conditions similar to the Maunder minimum within 40 years from now, with implications for solar-terrestrial science and the mitigation of space weather hazards and maybe even for climate in certain regions and seasons.

Effects of Thomson-scattering geometry on white-light imaging of an interplanetary shock: synthetic observations from forward magnetohydrodynamic modelling

Stereoscopic white-light imaging of a large portion of the inner heliosphere has been used to track interplanetary coronal mass ejections. At large elongations from the Sun, the white-light brightness depends on both the local electron density and the efficiency of the Thomson-scattering process. To quantify the effects of the Thomson-scattering geometry, we study an interplanetary shock using forward magnetohydrodynamic simulation and synthetic white-light imaging. Identifiable as an inclined streak of enhanced brightness in a time–elongation map, the travelling shock can be readily imaged by an observer located within a wide range of longitudes in the ecliptic. Different parts of the shock front contribute to the imaged brightness pattern viewed by observers at different longitudes. Moreover, even for an observer located at a fixed longitude, a different part of the shock front will contribute to the imaged brightness at any given time. The observed brightness within each imaging pixel results from a weighted integral along its corresponding ray-path. It is possible to infer the longitudinal location of the shock from the brightness pattern in an optical sky map, based on the east–west asymmetry in its brightness and degree of polarisation. Therefore, measurement of the interplanetary polarised brightness could significantly reduce the ambiguity in performing three-dimensional reconstruction of local electron density from white-light imaging.

Observational tracking of the 2D structure of coronal mass ejections between the sun and 1 AU

The Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) provides high cadence and high resolution images of the structure and morphology of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the inner heliosphere. CME directions and propagation speeds have often been estimated through the use of time-elongation maps obtained from the STEREO Heliospheric Imager (HI) data. Many of these CMEs have been identified by citizen scientists working within the SolarStormWatch project ( www.solarstormwatch.com ) as they work towards providing robust real-time identification of Earth-directed CMEs. The wide field of view of HI allows scientists to directly observe the two-dimensional (2D) structures, while the relative simplicity of time-elongation analysis means that it can be easily applied to many such events, thereby enabling a much deeper understanding of how CMEs evolve between the Sun and the Earth. For events with certain orientations, both the rear and front edges of the CME can be monitored at varying heliocentric distances (R) between the Sun and 1 AU. Here we take four example events with measurable position angle widths and identified by the citizen scientists. These events were chosen for the clarity of their structure within the HI cameras and their long track lengths in the time-elongation maps. We show a linear dependency with R for the growth of the radial width (W) and the 2D aspect ratio (χ) of these CMEs, which are measured out to ≈ 0.7 AU. We estimated the radial width from a linear best fit for the average of the four CMEs. We obtained the relationships W=0.14R+0.04 for the width and χ=2.5R+0.86 for the aspect ratio (W and R in units of AU).

Heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays during grand solar minima: past and future variations

Galactic cosmic ray flux at Earth is modulated by the heliospheric magnetic field. Heliospheric modulation potential, Φ, during grand solar minima is investigated using an open solar flux (OSF) model with OSF source based on sunspot number, R, and OSF loss on heliospheric current sheet inclination. Changing dominance between source and loss means Φ varies in- (anti-) phase with R during strong (weak) cycles, in agreement with Φ estimates from ice core records of 10Be concentration, which are in-phase during most of the last 300 years, but anti-phase during the Maunder Minimum. Model results suggest “flat” OSF cycles, such as solar cycle 20 result from OSF source and loss terms temporarily balancing throughout the cycle. Thus even if solar activity continues to decline steadily, the long-term drop in OSF through SC21 to SC23 may plateau during SC24, though reemerge in SC25 with the inverted phase relation.

Multispacecraft observation of magnetic cloud erosion by magnetic reconnection during propagation

During propagation, Magnetic Clouds (MC) interact with their environment and, in particular, may reconnect with the solar wind around it, eroding away part of its initial magnetic flux. Here we quantitatively analyze such an interaction using combined, multipoint observations of the same MC flux rope by STEREO A, B, ACE, WIND and THEMIS on November 19–20, 2007. Observation of azimuthal magnetic flux imbalance inside a MC flux rope has been argued to stem from erosion due to magnetic reconnection at its front boundary. The present study adds to such analysis a large set of signatures expected from this erosion process. (1) Comparison of azimuthal flux imbalance for the same MC at widely separated points precludes the crossing of the MC leg as a source of bias in flux imbalance estimates. (2) The use of different methods, associated errors and parametric analyses show that only an unexpectedly large error in MC axis orientation could explain the azimuthal flux imbalance. (3) Reconnection signatures are observed at the MC front at all spacecraft, consistent with an ongoing erosion process. (4) Signatures in suprathermal electrons suggest that the trailing part of the MC has a different large-scale magnetic topology, as expected. The azimuthal magnetic flux erosion estimated at ACE and STEREO A corresponds respectively to 44% and 49% of the inferred initial azimuthal magnetic flux before MC erosion upon propagation. The corresponding average reconnection rate during transit is estimated to be in the range 0.12–0.22 mV/m, suggesting most of the erosion occurs in the inner parts of the heliosphere. Future studies ought to quantify the influence of such an erosion process on geo-effectiveness.

Characterizing typographic expertise: do we process typefaces like faces?

Studies of face recognition and discrimination provide a rich source of data and debate on the nature of their processing, in particular through using inverted faces. This study draws parallels between the features of typefaces and faces, as letters share a basic configuration, regardless of typeface, that could be seen as similar to faces. Typeface discrimination is compared using paragraphs of upright letters and inverted letters at three viewing durations. Based on previously reported effects of expertise, the prediction that designers would be less accurate when letters are inverted, whereas nondesigners would have similar performance in both orientations, was confirmed. A proposal is made as to which spatial relations between typeface components constitute holistic and configural processing, posited as the basis for better discrimination of the typefaces of upright letters. Such processing may characterize designers’ perceptual abilities, acquired through training.

Where theory meets practice: a critical comparison of research into identifying letters and craft knowledge of type design

This paper introduces scientific research findings and accounts of skilled design judgement to: (i) develop an interdisciplinary account of what affects our identification of letters when reading; (ii) analyse the relationship between the approaches of psychologists and designers to explaining how we identify letters; (iii) propose ways in which collaboration may work to make psychological research more relevant to typographic practice. The topics reviewed are addressed within each discipline and cover the contribution of letters and words to reading; letter features; essential or structural forms; uniformity within font design; and letter spacing. Analysis of the literature identifies possible means of reconciling different perspectives, points out some anomalies in interpretation of findings, and proposes how designers may contribute to research planning and dissemination.

The myths of modern primitivism

RE/Search Publications’ Modern Primitives (Vale and Juno 1989) changed countless lives, bringing what had been a localized and niche set of body modification practices, aesthetics and philosophies out of San Francisco to a global audience, dominating scholarly and popular discourse around body modification subculture for more than a decade afterwards. The voice of Fakir Musafar dominates the book. This article argues that modern primitives as Musafar defines them never really existed (and never could have existed) in the terms he suggests, and goes on to address an important sub-strand within Modern Primitives almost entirely ignored by critics and commentators, who have read the book as generally representative of the body modification culture as a whole. With specific reference to contributors such as infamous tattoo artist Don Ed Hardy who do not frame their practice in ‘primitive’ terms, the article concludes with a study of an alternative account presented by Vale and Juno’s book: body modification as artistic practice.

Typography for children with reading difficulties: preferences for type in reading books

For children with developmental dyslexia the already challenging task of learning to read is made harder by difficulties with phonological processing and perceptual distortions. As a result, these children may be less motivated to practise their literacy skills. This is problematic in that literacy can only be gained through constant and continued exposure to reading scenarios, and children who are unmotivated to practise are unlikely to develop into fluent readers. Children are active in choosing the books they read and it is therefore important to understand how the typography in those books influences their choice. Research with typically developing children has shown that they have clear opinions about the typography in their reading materials and that these opinions are likely to influence their motivation to read particular books. However, it cannot be assumed that children with reading difficulties read and respond to texts in the same way as children who do not struggle. Through case-studies of three children with reading difficulties, preferences for the typography in their reading books is examined. Looking at elements of typesetting such as spacing and size shows that this group of children is aware of differences in typography and that they have preferences for how their reading books are typeset. These children showed a preference for books that resembled those that their peers are reading rather than those that would, by typographic convention, be considered easier to read. This study is part of ongoing research into the development of alternative materials for teaching literacy skills to children with dyslexia.

Searching for happiness across cultures

Three experiments examined the cultural relativity of emotion recognition using the visual search task. Caucasian-English and Japanese participants were required to search for an angry or happy discrepant face target against an array of competing distractor faces. Both cultural groups performed the task with displays that consisted of Caucasian and Japanese faces in order to investigate the effects of racial congruence on emotion detection performance. Under high perceptual load conditions, both cultural groups detected the happy face more efficiently than the angry face. When perceptual load was reduced such that target detection could be achieved by feature-matching, the English group continued to show a happiness advantage in search performance that was more strongly pronounced for other race faces. Japanese participants showed search time equivalence for happy and angry targets. Experiment 3 encouraged participants to adopt a perceptual based strategy for target detection by removing the term 'emotion' from the instructions. Whilst this manipulation did not alter the happiness advantage displayed by our English group, it reinstated it for our Japanese group, who showed a detection advantage for happiness only for other race faces. The results demonstrate cultural and linguistic modifiers on the perceptual saliency of the emotional signal and provide new converging evidence from cognitive psychology for the interactionist perspective on emotional expression recognition.

Using paint to investigate fires: an ATR-IR study of the degradation of paint samples upon heating

Fire investigation is a challenging area for the forensic investigator. The aim of this work was to use spectral changes to paint samples to estimate the temperatures to which a paint has been heated. Five paint samples (one clay paint, two car paints, one metallic paint, and one matt emulsion) have been fully characterized by a combination of attenuated total reflectance Fourier transform infrared (ATR-IR), Raman, X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy and powder X-ray diffraction. The thermal decomposition of these paints has been investigated by means of ATR-IR and thermal gravimetric analysis. Clear temperature markers are observed in the ATR-IR spectra namely: loss of m(C = O) band, >300°C; appearance of water bands on cooling, >500°C; alterations to m(Si–O) bands due to dehydration of silicate clays, >700°C; diminution of m(CO3) and d(CO3) modes of CaCO3, >950°C. We suggest the possible use of portable ATR-IR for nondestructive, in situ analysis of paints.