Monthly average temperature modelling

This research is associated with the goal of the horticultural sector of the Colombian southwest, which is to obtain climatic information, specifically, to predict the monthly average temperature in sites where it has not been measured. The data correspond to monthly average temperature, and were recorded in meteorological stations at Valle del Cauca, Colombia, South America. Two components are identified in the data of this research: (1) a component due to the temporal aspects, determined by characteristics of the time series, distribution of the monthly average temperature through the months and the temporal phenomena, which increased (El Nino) and decreased (La Nina) the temperature values, and (2) a component due to the sites, which is determined for the clear differentiation of two populations, the valley and the mountains, which are associated with the pattern of monthly average temperature and with the altitude. Finally, due to the closeness between meteorological stations it is possible to find spatial correlation between data from nearby sites. In the first instance a random coefficient model without spatial covariance structure in the errors is obtained by month and geographical location (mountains and valley, respectively). Models for wet periods in mountains show a normal distribution in the errors; models for the valley and dry periods in mountains do not exhibit a normal pattern in the errors. In models of mountains and wet periods, omni-directional weighted variograms for residuals show spatial continuity. The random coefficient model without spatial covariance structure in the errors and the random coefficient model with spatial covariance structure in the errors are capturing the influence of the El Nino and La Nina phenomena, which indicates that the inclusion of the random part in the model is appropriate. The altitude variable contributes significantly in the models for mountains. In general, the cross-validation process indicates that the random coefficient model with spatial spherical and the random coefficient model with spatial Gaussian are the best models for the wet periods in mountains, and the worst model is the model used by the Colombian Institute for Meteorology, Hydrology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM) to predict temperature.

Identifying adaptive genetic divergence among populations from genome scans

The identification of signatures of natural selection in genomic surveys has become an area of intense research, stimulated by the increasing ease with which genetic markers can be typed. Loci identified as subject to selection may be functionally important, and hence (weak) candidates for involvement in disease causation. They can also be useful in determining the adaptive differentiation of populations, and exploring hypotheses about speciation. Adaptive differentiation has traditionally been identified from differences in allele frequencies among different populations, summarised by an estimate of F-ST. Low outliers relative to an appropriate neutral population-genetics model indicate loci subject to balancing selection, whereas high outliers suggest adaptive (directional) selection. However, the problem of identifying statistically significant departures from neutrality is complicated by confounding effects on the distribution of F-ST estimates, and current methods have not yet been tested in large-scale simulation experiments. Here, we simulate data from a structured population at many unlinked, diallelic loci that are predominantly neutral but with some loci subject to adaptive or balancing selection. We develop a hierarchical-Bayesian method, implemented via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and assess its performance in distinguishing the loci simulated under selection from the neutral loci. We also compare this performance with that of a frequentist method, based on moment-based estimates of F-ST. We find that both methods can identify loci subject to adaptive selection when the selection coefficient is at least five times the migration rate. Neither method could reliably distinguish loci under balancing selection in our simulations, even when the selection coefficient is twenty times the migration rate.

Free radicals, metals and antioxidants in oxidative stress-induced cancer

Oxygen-free radicals, more generally known as reactive oxygen species (ROS) along with reactive nitrogen species (RNS) are well recognised for playing a dual role as both deleterious and beneficial species. The "two-faced" character of ROS is substantiated by growing body of evidence that ROS within cells act as secondary messengers in intracellular signalling cascades, which induce and maintain the oncogenic phenotype of cancer cells, however, ROS can also induce cellular senescence and apoptosis and can therefore function as anti-tumourigenic species. The cumulative production of ROS/RNS through either endogenous or exogenous insults is termed oxidative stress and is common for many types of cancer cell that are linked with altered redox regulation of cellular signalling pathways. Oxidative stress induces a cellular redox imbalance which has been found to be present in various cancer cells compared with normal cells; the redox imbalance thus may be related to oncogenic stimulation. DNA mutation is a critical step in carcinogenesis and elevated levels of oxidative DNA lesions (8-OH-G) have been noted in various tumours, strongly implicating such damage in the etiology of cancer. It appears that the DNA damage is predominantly linked with the initiation process. This review examines the evidence for involvement of the oxidative stress in the carcinogenesis process. Attention is focused on structural, chemical and biochemical aspects of free radicals, the endogenous and exogenous sources of their generation, the metal (iron, copper, chromium, cobalt, vanadium, cadmium, arsenic, nickel)-mediated formation of free radicals (e.g. Fenton chemistry), the DNA damage (both mitochondrial and nuclear), the damage to lipids and proteins by free radicals, the phenomenon of oxidative stress, cancer and the redox environment of a cell, the mechanisms of carcinogenesis and the role of signalling cascades by ROS; in particular. ROS activation of AP-1 (activator protein) and NF-kappa B (nuclear factor kappa B) signal transduction pathways, which, in turn lead to the transcription of genes involved in cell growth regulatory pathways. The role of enzymatic (superoxide dismutase (Cu. Zn-SOD. Mn-SOD), catalase, glutathione peroxidase) and non-enzymatic antioxidants (Vitamin C, Vitamin E, carotenoids, thiol antioxidants (glutathione, thioredoxin and lipoic acid), flavonoids, selenium and others) in the process of careinogenesis as well as the antioxidant interactions with various regulatory factors, including Ref-1, NF-kappa B, AP-1 are also reviewed. 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact damage characterisation of thermoplastic matrix composites using transmission transient thermography

In this work, IR thermography is used as a non-destructive tool for impact damage characterisation on thermoplastic E-glass/polypropylene composites for automotive applications. The aim of this experimentation was to compare impact resistance and to characterise damage patterns of different laminates, in order to provide indications for their use in components. Two E-glass/polypropylene composites, commingled ®Twintex (with three different weave structures: directional, balanced and 3-D) and random reinforced GMT, were in particular characterised. Directional and balanced Twintex were also coupled in a number of hybrid configurations with GMT to evaluate the possible use of GMT/Twintex hybrids in high-energy absorption components. The laminates were impacted using a falling weight tower, with impact energies ranging from 15 J to penetration. Using IR thermography during cooling down following a long pulse (3 s), impact damaged areas were characterised and the influence of weave structure on damage patterns was studied. IR thermography offered good accuracy for laminates with thickness not exceeding 3.5 mm: this appears to be a limit for the direct use of this method on components, where more refined signal treatment would probably be needed for impact damage characterisation.

Age-associated changes in protein oxidation and proteasome activities in rat brain: modulation by antioxidants

The free radical theory of ageing postulates that age-associated neurodegeneration is caused by an imbalance between pro-oxidants and antioxidants resulting in oxidative stress. The current study showed regional variation in brain susceptibility to age-associated oxidative stress as shown by increased lipofuscin deposition and protein carbonyl levels in male rats of age 15-16 months compared to control ones (3-5 months). The hippocampus is the area most vulnerable to change compared to the cortex and cerebellum. However, proteasomal enzyme activity was not affected by age in any of the brain regions studied. Treatment with melatonin or coenzyme Q10 for 4 weeks reduced the lipofuscin content of the hippocampus and carbonyl level. However, both melatonin and coenzyme Q10 treatments inhibited beta-glutamyl peptide hydrolase activity. This suggests that these molecules can alter proteasome function independently of their antioxidant actions. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dietary PUFA and the metabolic syndrome in Indian Asians living in the UK

Indian Asians living in the UK have a 50% higher CHD mortality rate compared with the indigenous Caucasian population, which cannot be attributed to traditional risk factors. Instead, features of the metabolic syndrome, including raised plasma triacylglycerol, reduced HDL-cholesterol (HDL-C) and an increased proportion of small dense LDL particles, together with insulin resistance and central obesity, are prevalent among this population. The present review examines evidence to support the hypothesis that an imbalance in dietary PUFA intake, specifically a higher intake of n-6 PUFA in combination with a lower intake of the long-chain (LC) n-3 PUFA, plays an important role in the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome observed in Indian Asians. Data are presented to illustrate the impact of manipulation of the background n-6 PUFA intake (moderate or high n-6 PUFA) and the subsequent response to supplementation with LC n-3 PUFA on blood lipids and insulin action in a group of Indian Asian volunteers. The results demonstrate that supplementation with LC n-3 PUFA had no impact on insulin action in those subjects consuming either the moderate-or high-n-6 PUFA diet. In the postprandial phase reductions in plasma triacylglycerol concentrations were greater in those consuming the high-n-6 PUFA background diet subsequent to fish oil supplementation. The present study concludes that, contrary to the central hypothesis, the prevalence of metabolic abnormalities in Indian Asians compared with Caucasians may not be attributable to differences in intakes of n-6 and n-3 PUFA.

Increased n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids do not attenuate the effects of long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids on insulin sensitivity or triacylglycerol reduction in Indian Asians

Background: Indian Asians in Western countries have a higher rate of coronary artery disease than do the indigenous white populations, and this higher rate may be influenced by a dietary imbalance of n-6 and n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs). Objective: The objective of the study was to test the hypothesis that a high background dietary intake of n-6 PUFA attenuates the effects of fish-oil supplementation on insulin sensitivity and associated blood lipids of the metabolic syndrome. Design: Twenty-nine Indian Asian men were recruited to participate in a 12-wk dietary intervention trial. Volunteers were randomly assigned to receive either a moderate or a high n-6 PUFA diet featuring modified oils and spreads over a 6-wk period. After this 6-wk period, both groups were supplemented with 4.0 g fish oil/d (2.5 g eicosapentaenoic acid + docosahexaenoic acid) for an additional 6 wk in combination with the dietary treatment. Volunteers participated in a postprandial study and an insulin sensitivity test after the 6-wk dietary intervention and again after the fish-oil supplementation period. Results: There was no significant time X treatment interaction for blood lipids or insulin action after dietary intervention with the moderate or high n-6 PUFA diets in combination with fish oil. After the 6-wk period of fish oil supplementation, fasting and postprandial plasma triacylglycerol concentrations decreased significantly. Conclusion: The background dietary n-6 PUFA concentration did not modulate the effect of fish-oil supplementation on blood lipids or measures of insulin sensitivity in this ethnic group.

Invasive neural prosthesis for neural signal detection and nerve stimulation

This paper specifically examines the implantation of a microelectrode array into the median nerve of the left arm of a healthy male volunteer. The objective was to establish a bi-directional link between the human nervous system and a computer, via a unique interface module. This is the first time that such a device has been used with a healthy human. The aim of the study was to assess the efficacy, compatibility, and long term operability of the neural implant in allowing the subject to perceive feedback stimulation and for neural activity to be detected and processed such that the subject could interact with remote technologies. A case study demonstrating real-time control of an instrumented prosthetic hand by means of the bi-directional link is given. The implantation did not result in infection, and scanning electron microscope images of the implant post extraction have not indicated significant rejection of the implant by the body. No perceivable loss of hand sensation or motion control was experienced by the subject while the implant was in place, and further testing of the subject following the removal of the implant has not indicated any measurable long term defects. The implant was extracted after 96 days. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Finding the point on Bezier Curves with the normal vector passing an external point

Two algorithms for finding the point on non-rational/rational Bezier curves of which the normal vector passes through a given external point are presented. The algorithms are based on Bezier curves generation algorithms of de Casteljau's algorithm for non-rational Bezier curve or Farin's recursion for rational Bezier curve, respectively. Orthogonal projections from the external point are used to guide the directional search used in the proposed iterative algorithms. Using Lyapunov's method, it is shown that each algorithm is able to converge to a local minimum for each case of non-rational/rational Bezier curves. It is also shown that on convergence the distance between the point on curves to the external point reaches a local minimum for both approaches. Illustrative examples are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.

Shaking hands: Priming by social action effects

In a semi-naturalistic response-effect compatibility paradigm, participants were given the opportunity to learn that hand-shaking actions would be followed by social effects (human hand-shaking stimuli from a third-person perspective) or inanimate effects (block arrow stimuli). Relative to the actions, these effects appeared on the same or the opposite side of the screen (positional compatibility), and pointed towards or away from the response hand (directional compatibility). After learning, response times indicated a positional compatibility effect for both social and inanimate effects, but a directional compatibility effect occurred only for social action effects. These findings indicate that actions can be represented, not only by their effects on the inanimate world, but also by their effects on the actions of others. They are consistent with ideomotor theory, and with the view that actions are represented by bidirectional response-effect associations. They also have implications with respect to the origins and on-line control of imitation and the systems supporting imitation.

In situ signatures of interchange reconnection between magnetic clouds and open magnetic fields: a mechanism for the erosion of polar coronal holes?

We outline a method to determine the direction of solar open flux transport that results from the opening of magnetic clouds (MCs) by interchange reconnection at the Sun based solely on in-situ observations. This method uses established findings about i) the locations and magnetic polarities of emerging MC footpoints, ii) the hemispheric dependence of the helicity of MCs, and iii) the occurrence of interchange reconnection at the Sun being signaled by uni-directional suprathermal electrons inside MCs. Combining those observational facts in a statistical analysis of MCs during solar cycle 23 (period 1995 – 2007), we show that the time of disappearance of the northern polar coronal hole (1998 – 1999), permeated by an outward-pointing magnetic field, is associated with a peak in the number of MCs originating from the northern hemisphere and connected to the Sun by outward-pointing magnetic field lines. A similar peak is observed in the number of MCs originating from the southern hemisphere and connected to the Sun by inward-pointing magnetic field lines. This pattern is interpreted as the result of interchange reconnection occurring between MCs and the open field lines of nearby polar coronal holes. This reconnection process closes down polar coronal hole open field lines and transports these open field lines equatorward, thus contributing to the global coronal magnetic field reversal process. These results will be further constrainable with the rising phase of solar cycle 24.

Post War land reform and the impact on planning in Japan

One feature of Japanese urban areas in the 21st century that is bound to strike any Western visitor is the extensive spread of its suburbs with their varied mixing of land-uses. It is almost impossible to pinpoint precisely where the city begins and where it ends. During the post-War period, this characteristic pattern of land-use sprawled over the countryside, seemingly unimpeded by planning restrictions. The number of studies that highlight the problems of Japanese planning outweighs the research that explores its underlying causes. This paper aims to partly redress this imbalance by describing a case study of the failed implementation of the green belt around Tokyo and to link this with the Allied Occupation’s postwar land reforms and drafting of a new constitution in the period 1946-1951. Overall, we aim to highlight how the ostensible benefits and aims of a land reform programme can entail substantial disbenefits or unforeseen outcomes in terms of land-use planning..

The changing atmospheric water cycle in polar regions in a warmer climate

We have examined the atmospheric water cycle of both Polar Regions, pole wards of 60°N and 60°S, using the ERA-Interim re-analysis and high-resolution simulations with the ECHAM5 model for both the present and future climate based on the IPCC, A1B scenario, representative of the last three decades of the 21st century. The annual precipitation in ERA-Interim amounts to ~17000 km3 and is more or less the same in the Arctic and the Antarctic, but it is composed differently. In the Arctic the annual evaporation is some 8000 km3 but some 3000 km3 less in the Antarctica where the net horizontal transport is correspondingly larger. The net water transport of the model is more intense than in ERA-Interim, in the Arctic the difference is 2.5% and in the Antarctic it is 6.2%. Precipitation and net horizontal transport in the Arctic has a maximum in August and September. Evaporation peaks in June and July. The seasonal cycle is similar in Antarctica with the highest precipitation in the austral autumn. The largest net transport occurs at the end of the major extra-tropical storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere such as the eastern Pacific and eastern north Atlantic. The variability of the model is virtually identical to that of the re-analysis and there are no changes in variability between the present climate and the climate at the end of the 21st century when normalized with the higher level of moisture. The changes from year to year are substantial with the 20 and 30-year records being generally too short to identify robust trends in the hydrological cycle. In the A1B climate scenario the strength of the water cycle increases by some 25% in the Arctic and by 19% in the Antarctica, as measured by annual precipitation. The increase in the net horizontal transport is 29% and 22% respectively, and the increase in evaporation correspondingly less. The net transport follows closely the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. There is 2 a minor change in the annual cycle of the Arctic atmospheric water cycle with the maximum transport and precipitation occurring later in the year. There is a small imbalance of some 4-6% between the net transport and precipitation minus evaporation. We suggest that this is mainly due to the fact the transport is calculated from instantaneous 6-hourly data while precipitation and evaporation is accumulated over a 6 hour period. The residual difference is proportionally similar for all experiments and hardly varies from year to year.

Forecasting UK real estate cycle phases with leading indicators: a probit approach

This paper examines the significance of widely used leading indicators of the UK economy for predicting the cyclical pattern of commercial real estate performance. The analysis uses monthly capital value data for UK industrials, offices and retail from the Investment Property Databank (IPD). Prospective economic indicators are drawn from three sources namely, the series used by the US Conference Board to construct their UK leading indicator and the series deployed by two private organisations, Lombard Street Research and NTC Research, to predict UK economic activity. We first identify turning points in the capital value series adopting techniques employed in the classical business cycle literature. We then estimate probit models using the leading economic indicators as independent variables and forecast the probability of different phases of capital values, that is, periods of declining and rising capital values. The forecast performance of the models is tested and found to be satisfactory. The predictability of lasting directional changes in property performance represents a useful tool for real estate investment decision-making.

ERP correlates of shared control mechanisms involved in saccade preparation and in covert attention

We investigated whether attention shifts and eye movement preparation are mediated by shared control mechanisms, as claimed by the premotor theory of attention. ERPs were recorded in three tasks where directional cues presented at the beginning of each trial instructed participants to direct their attention to the cued side without eye movements (Covert task), to prepare an eye movement in the cued direction without attention shifts (Saccade task) or both (Combined task). A peripheral visual Go/Nogo stimulus that was presented 800 ms after cue onset signalled whether responses had to be executed or withheld. Lateralised ERP components triggered during the cue–target interval, which are assumed to reflect preparatory control mechanisms that mediate attentional orienting, were very similar across tasks. They were also present in the Saccade task, which was designed to discourage any concomitant covert attention shifts. These results support the hypothesis that saccade preparation and attentional orienting are implemented by common control structures. There were however systematic differences in the impact of eye movement programming and covert attention on ERPs triggered in response to visual stimuli at cued versus uncued locations. It is concluded that, although the preparatory processes underlying saccade programming and covert attentional orienting may be based on common mechanisms, they nevertheless differ in their spatially specific effects on visual information processing.