Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model—I: description of the system and the impact of radar-derived surface precipitation rates

A key strategy to improve the skill of quantitative predictions of precipitation, as well as hazardous weather such as severe thunderstorms and flash floods is to exploit the use of observations of convective activity (e.g. from radar). In this paper, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) aimed at addressing the problems of forecasting localized weather events with relatively short predictability time scale and based on a 1.5 km grid-length version of the Met Office Unified Model is presented. Particular attention is given to the impact of using predicted observations of radar-derived precipitation intensity in the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) used within the EPS. Our initial results based on the use of a 24-member ensemble of forecasts for two summer case studies show that the convective-scale EPS produces fairly reliable forecasts of temperature, horizontal winds and relative humidity at 1 h lead time, as evident from the inspection of rank histograms. On the other hand, the rank histograms seem also to show that the EPS generates too much spread for forecasts of (i) surface pressure and (ii) surface precipitation intensity. These may indicate that for (i) the value of surface pressure observation error standard deviation used to generate surface pressure rank histograms is too large and for (ii) may be the result of non-Gaussian precipitation observation errors. However, further investigations are needed to better understand these findings. Finally, the inclusion of predicted observations of precipitation from radar in the 24-member EPS considered in this paper does not seem to improve the 1-h lead time forecast skill.

Development of a semantic graph-based scene description

Software representations of scenes, i.e. the modelling of objects in space, are used in many application domains. Current modelling and scene description standards focus on visualisation dimensions, and are intrinsically limited by their dependence upon their semantic interpretation and contextual application by humans. In this paper we propose the need for an open, extensible and semantically rich modelling language, which facilitates a machine-readable semantic structure. We critically review existing standards and techniques, and highlight a need for a semantically focussed scene description language. Based on this defined need we propose a preliminary solution, based on hypergraph theory, and reflect on application domains.

A largely intolerable combination of two mainly unconnected texts: 1. Description of the Barefoot in the Head event, at BHQU, NY, 12/11/09; 2. Fictioning and the End

An evaluation of the 'Barefoot in the Head' performance event, I co-curated with Alun Rowlands and Mark Beasley, at Bruce High Quality Foundation University, New York, as part of Performa 09 New York, 12 November 2009 - an examination of my own performance and the other performances occurring simultaneously at the event.

Implementation of a new urban energy budget scheme in the MetUM. Part I: Description and idealized simulations

This paper describes the formulation of a new urban scheme, MORUSES (Met Office–Reading Urban Surface Exchange Scheme) for use in the Met Office Unified Model. The implementation of the new scheme ensures that (1) the new scheme offers more flexibility in the parametrization of the building properties, and hence provides a more realistic representation of the fluxes; (2) the bulk outputs are in satisfactory agreement with previous observational studies; and (3) the impact of the new scheme on the energy balance fluxes is similar to the impact of the current urban scheme when set up to mimic it. As well as having a better physical basis, MORUSES also gains in flexibility in applications and adaptations to different urban materials as well as urban planning. The new scheme represents the urban area as a composition of two tiles, a canyon and a roof, using a simple 2D geometry. Sensitivity analysis to canyon geometry and thickness of the roof canopy emphasizes the gain in flexibility captured by the new scheme. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright

The FAMOUS climate model (versions XFXWB and XFHCC): description update to version XDBUA

FAMOUS is an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model of low resolution, based on version 4.5 of the UK MetOffice Unified Model. Here we update the model description to account for changes in the model as it is used in the CMIP5 EMIC model intercomparison project (EMICmip) and a number of other studies. Most of these changes correct errors found in the code. The EMICmip version of the model (XFXWB) has a better-conserved water budget and additional cooling in some high latitude areas, but otherwise has a similar climatology to previous versions of FAMOUS. A variant of XFXWB is also described, with changes to the dynamics at the top of the model which improve the model climatology (XFHCC).

A framework for graphic description in book design

This project is concerned with the way that illustrations, photographs, diagrams and graphs, and typographic elements interact to convey ideas on the book page. A framework for graphic description is proposed to elucidate this graphic language of ‘complex texts’. The model is built up from three main areas of study, with reference to a corpus of contemporary children’s science books. First, a historical survey puts the subjects for study in context. Then a multidisciplinary discussion of graphic communication provides a theoretical underpinning for the model; this leads to various proposals, such as the central importance of ratios and relationships among parts in creating meaning in graphic communication. Lastly a series of trials in description contribute to the structure of the model itself. At the heart of the framework is an organising principle that integrates descriptive models from fields of design, literary criticism, art history, and linguistics, among others, as well as novel categories designed specifically for book design. Broadly, design features are described in terms of elemental component parts (micro-level), larger groupings of these (macro-level), and finally in terms of overarching, ‘whole book’ qualities (meta-level). Various features of book design emerge at different levels; for instance, the presence of nested discursive structures, a form of graphic recursion in editorial design, is proposed at the macro-level. Across these three levels are the intersecting categories of ‘rule’ and ‘context’, offering different perspectives with which to describe graphic characteristics. Contextbased features are contingent on social and cultural environment, the reader’s previous knowledge, and the actual conditions of reading; rule-based features relate to the systematic or codified aspects of graphic language. The model aims to be a frame of reference for graphic description, of use in different forms of qualitative or quantitative research and as a heuristic tool in practice and teaching.

A reconstruction of stencilling based on the description by Gilles Filleau des Billettes

This essay recounts and illustrates the reconstruction and testing of tools, furniture and working methods for stencilling texts. The description on which the reconstruction is based, written by Gilles Filleau des Billettes in Paris in the 1690s, is supplied elsewhere in this volume, together with an English translation. From the reconstruction and tests conducted with it, observations and conclusions are drawn about its effectiveness and its likely relationship to (then) contemporary stencilling practices. Four appendices are also included dealing with Des Billettes's method of designing and spacing letters; the cutting of stencils; the engraving by Louis Simonneau that accompanies Des Billettes's text; and later stencil configurations and working methods that incorporate the same or similar features to those described by Des Billettes.

Paul the Silentiary’s description of Hagia Sophia in the light of new archaeological evidence

A discussion of the implications of of recent archaeological work at Hagia Sophia in Istanbul for understanding Paul the Silentiary's sixth-century Ekphrasis of the Byzantine church.

Description and process evaluation of pharmacists’ interventions in a pharmacist-led information technology-enabled multicentre cluster randomised controlled trial for reducing medication errors in general practice (PINCER trial)

Objective To undertake a process evaluation of pharmacists' recommendations arising in the context of a complex IT-enabled pharmacist-delivered randomised controlled trial (PINCER trial) to reduce the risk of hazardous medicines management in general practices. Methods PINCER pharmacists manually recorded patients’ demographics, details of interventions recommended, actions undertaken by practice staff and time taken to manage individual cases of hazardous medicines management. Data were coded and double entered into SPSS v15, and then summarised using percentages for categorical data (with 95% CI) and, as appropriate, means (SD) or medians (IQR) for continuous data. Key findings Pharmacists spent a median of 20 minutes (IQR 10, 30) reviewing medical records, recommending interventions and completing actions in each case of hazardous medicines management. Pharmacists judged 72% (95%CI 70, 74) (1463/2026) of cases of hazardous medicines management to be clinically relevant. Pharmacists recommended 2105 interventions in 74% (95%CI 73, 76) (1516/2038) of cases and 1685 actions were taken in 61% (95%CI 59, 63) (1246/2038) of cases; 66% (95%CI 64, 68) (1383/2105) of interventions recommended by pharmacists were completed and 5% (95%CI 4, 6) (104/2105) of recommendations were accepted by general practitioners (GPs), but not completed at the end of the pharmacists’ placement; the remaining recommendations were rejected or considered not relevant by GPs. Conclusions The outcome measures were used to target pharmacist activity in general practice towards patients at risk from hazardous medicines management. Recommendations from trained PINCER pharmacists were found to be broadly acceptable to GPs and led to ameliorative action in the majority of cases. It seems likely that the approach used by the PINCER pharmacists could be employed by other practice pharmacists following appropriate training.

The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description – part 1: energy and water fluxes

This manuscript describes the energy and water components of a new community land surface model called the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). This is developed from the Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme (MOSES). It can be used as a stand alone land surface model driven by observed forcing data, or coupled to an atmospheric global circulation model. The JULES model has been coupled to the Met Office Unified Model (UM) and as such provides a unique opportunity for the research community to contribute their research to improve both world-leading operational weather forecasting and climate change prediction systems. In addition JULES, and its forerunner MOSES, have been the basis for a number of very high-profile papers concerning the land-surface and climate over the last decade. JULES has a modular structure aligned to physical processes, providing the basis for a flexible modelling platform.