Coupling ensemble weather predictions based on TIGGE database with Grid-Xinanjiang model for flood forecast

The incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) into a flood forecasting system can increase forecast lead times from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP forecast from a single forecast centre, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and lead to a high number of false alarms. The availability of global ensemble numerical weather prediction systems through the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a new opportunity for flood forecast. The Grid-Xinanjiang distributed hydrological model, which is based on the Xinanjiang model theory and the topographical information of each grid cell extracted from the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), is coupled with ensemble weather predictions based on the TIGGE database (CMC, CMA, ECWMF, UKMO, NCEP) for flood forecast. This paper presents a case study using the coupled flood forecasting model on the Xixian catchment (a drainage area of 8826 km2) located in Henan province, China. A probabilistic discharge is provided as the end product of flood forecast. Results show that the association of the Grid-Xinanjiang model and the TIGGE database gives a promising tool for an early warning of flood events several days ahead.

Fire history and the Global Charcoal Database: a new tool for hypothesis testing and data exploration

Version 1 of the Global Charcoal Database is now available for regional fire history reconstructions, data exploration, hypothesis testing, and evaluation of coupled climate–vegetation–fire model simulations. The charcoal database contains over 400 radiocarbon-dated records that document changes in charcoal abundance during the Late Quaternary. The aim of this public database is to stimulate cross-disciplinary research in fire sciences targeted at an increased understanding of the controls and impacts of natural and anthropogenic fire regimes on centennial-to-orbital timescales. We describe here the data standardization techniques for comparing multiple types of sedimentary charcoal records. Version 1 of the Global Charcoal Database has been used to characterize global and regional patterns in fire activity since the last glacial maximum. Recent studies using the charcoal database have explored the relation between climate and fire during periods of rapid climate change, including evidence of fire activity during the Younger Dryas Chronozone, and during the past two millennia.

Deficits in agency in schizophrenia, and additional deficits in body image, body schema, and internal timing, in passivity symptoms

Individuals with schizophrenia, particularly those with passivity symptoms, may not feel in control of their actions, believing them to be controlled by external agents. Cognitive operations that contribute to these symptoms may include abnormal processing in agency as well as body representations that deal with body schema and body image. However, these operations in schizophrenia are not fully understood, and the questions of general versus specific deficits in individuals with different symptom profiles remain unanswered. Using the projected-hand illusion (a digital video version of the rubber-hand illusion) with synchronous and asynchronous stroking (500 ms delay), and a hand laterality judgment task, we assessed sense of agency, body image, and body schema in 53 people with clinically stable schizophrenia (with a current, past, and no history of passivity symptoms) and 48 healthy controls. The results revealed a stable trait in schizophrenia with no difference between clinical subgroups (sense of agency) and some quantitative (specific) differences depending on the passivity symptom profile (body image and body schema). Specifically, a reduced sense of self-agency was a common feature of all clinical subgroups. However, subgroup comparisons showed that individuals with passivity symptoms (both current and past) had significantly greater deficits on tasks assessing body image and body schema, relative to the other groups. In addition, patients with current passivity symptoms failed to demonstrate the normal reduction in body illusion typically seen with a 500 ms delay in visual feedback (asynchronous condition), suggesting internal timing problems. Altogether, the results underscore self-abnormalities in schizophrenia, provide evidence for both trait abnormalities and state changes specific to passivity symptoms, and point to a role for internal timing deficits as a mechanistic explanation for external cues becoming a possible source of self-body input.

The Italian Academies, 1525-1700: a themed collection database, London, British Library

A database of books published by Italian Academies between 1525 and 1700. The Italian Academies Themed Collection provides a detailed searchable database for locating printed material relating to the Italian learned Academies active in Avellino, Bari, Benevento, Bologna, Brindisi, Caltanissetta, Catania, Catanzaro, Enna, L’Aquila, Lecce, Mantua, Naples, Padua, Palermo, Rome, Salerno, Siena, Syracuse, Trapani, and Venice in the period 1525-1700 and now held in the collections of the British Library.