Towards more precise sugar beet management based on geostatistical analysis of spatial variability within fields

Within-field variation in sugar beet yield and quality was investigated in three commercial sugar beet fields in the east of England to identify the main associated variables and to examine the possibility of predicting yield early in the season with a view to spatially variable management of sugar beet crops. Irregular grid sampling with some purposively-located nested samples was applied. It revealed the spatial variability in each sugar beet field efficiently. In geostatistical analyses, most variograms were isotropic with moderate to strong spatial dependency indicating a significant spatial variation in sugar beet yield and associated growth and environmental variables in all directions within each field. The Kriged maps showed spatial patterns of yield variability within each field and visual association with the maps of other variables. This was confirmed by redundancy analyses and Pearson correlation coefficients. The main variables associated with yield variability were soil type, organic matter, soil moisture, weed density and canopy temperature. Kriged maps of final yield variability were strongly related to that in crop canopy cover, LAI and intercepted solar radiation early in the growing season, and the yield maps of previous crops. Therefore, yield maps of previous crops together with early assessment of sugar beet growth may make an early prediction of within-field variability in sugar beet yield possible. The Broom’s Barn sugar beet model failed to account for the spatial variability in sugar yield, but the simulation was greatly improved when corrected for early canopy development cover and when the simulated yield was adjusted for weeds and plant population. Further research to optimize inputs to maximise sugar yield should target the irrigation and fertilizing of areas within fields with low canopy cover early in the season.

Analysis of water-level response to rainfall and implications for recharge pathways in the Chalk aquifer, SE England

Water table response to rainfall was investigated at six sites in the Upper, Middle and Lower Chalk of southern England. Daily time series of rainfall and borehole water level were cross-corretated to investigate seasonal variations in groundwater-level response times, based on periods of 3-month duration. The time tags (in days) yielding significant correlations were compared with the average unsaturated zone thickness during each 3-month period. In general, for cases when the unsaturated zone was greater than 18 m thick, the time tag for a significant water-level response increased rapidly once the depth to the water table exceeded a critical value, which varied from site to site. For shallower water tables, a linear relationship between the depth to the water table and the water-level response time was evident. The observed variations in response time can only be partially accounted for using a diffusive model for propagation through the unsaturated matrix, suggesting that some fissure flow was occurring. The majority of rapid responses were observed during the winter/spring recharge period, when the unsaturated zone is thinnest and the unsaturated zone moisture content is highest, and were more likely to occur when the rainfall intensity exceeded 5 mm/day. At some sites, a very rapid response within 24 h of rainfall was observed in addition to the longer term responses even when the unsaturated zone was up to 64 m thick. This response was generally associated with the autumn period. The results of the cross-correlation analysis provide statistical support for the presence of fissure flow and for the contribution of multiple pathways through the unsaturated zone to groundwater recharge. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An analysis of the management of a public sector project: a systems-based case study

The management of a public sector project is analysed using a model developed from systems theory. Linear responsibility analysis is used to identify the primary and key decision structure of the project and to generate quantitative data regarding differentiation and integration of the operating system, the managing system and the client/project team. The environmental context of the project is identified. Conclusions are drawn regarding the project organization structure's ability to cope with the prevailing environmental conditions. It is found that the complexity of the managing system imposed on the project was unable to achieve this and created serious deficiencies in the outcome of the project.

Metrics for solar wind prediction models: Comparison of empirical, hybrid, and physics-based schemes with 8 years of L1 observations

Space weather effects on technological systems originate with energy carried from the Sun to the terrestrial environment by the solar wind. In this study, we present results of modeling of solar corona-heliosphere processes to predict solar wind conditions at the L1 Lagrangian point upstream of Earth. In particular we calculate performance metrics for (1) empirical, (2) hybrid empirical/physics-based, and (3) full physics-based coupled corona-heliosphere models over an 8-year period (1995–2002). L1 measurements of the radial solar wind speed are the primary basis for validation of the coronal and heliosphere models studied, though other solar wind parameters are also considered. The models are from the Center for Integrated Space-Weather Modeling (CISM) which has developed a coupled model of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, from the solar photosphere to the terrestrial thermosphere. Simple point-by-point analysis techniques, such as mean-square-error and correlation coefficients, indicate that the empirical coronal-heliosphere model currently gives the best forecast of solar wind speed at 1 AU. A more detailed analysis shows that errors in the physics-based models are predominately the result of small timing offsets to solar wind structures and that the large-scale features of the solar wind are actually well modeled. We suggest that additional “tuning” of the coupling between the coronal and heliosphere models could lead to a significant improvement of their accuracy. Furthermore, we note that the physics-based models accurately capture dynamic effects at solar wind stream interaction regions, such as magnetic field compression, flow deflection, and density buildup, which the empirical scheme cannot.

Family-based association analysis with ordered categorical phenotypes, covariates and interactions

Genetic association analyses of family-based studies with ordered categorical phenotypes are often conducted using methods either for quantitative or for binary traits, which can lead to suboptimal analyses. Here we present an alternative likelihood-based method of analysis for single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotypes and ordered categorical phenotypes in nuclear families of any size. Our approach, which extends our previous work for binary phenotypes, permits straightforward inclusion of covariate, gene-gene and gene-covariate interaction terms in the likelihood, incorporates a simple model for ascertainment and allows for family-specific effects in the hypothesis test. Additionally, our method produces interpretable parameter estimates and valid confidence intervals. We assess the proposed method using simulated data, and apply it to a polymorphism in the c-reactive protein (CRP) gene typed in families collected to investigate human systemic lupus erythematosus. By including sex interactions in the analysis, we show that the polymorphism is associated with anti-nuclear autoantibody (ANA) production in females, while there appears to be no effect in males.

Comparison of energy evaluation systems and a mechanistic model for milk production by dairy cattle offered fresh grass-based diets

Grass-based diets are of increasing social-economic importance in dairy cattle farming, but their low supply of glucogenic nutrients may limit the production of milk. Current evaluation systems that assess the energy supply and requirements are based on metabolisable energy (ME) or net energy (NE). These systems do not consider the characteristics of the energy delivering nutrients. In contrast, mechanistic models take into account the site of digestion, the type of nutrient absorbed and the type of nutrient required for production of milk constituents, and may therefore give a better prediction of supply and requirement of nutrients. The objective of the present study is to compare the ability of three energy evaluation systems, viz. the Dutch NE system, the agricultural and food research council (AFRC) ME system, and the feed into milk (FIM) ME system, and of a mechanistic model based on Dijkstra et al. [Simulation of digestion in cattle fed sugar cane: prediction of nutrient supply for milk production with locally available supplements. J. Agric. Sci., Cambridge 127, 247-60] and Mills et al. [A mechanistic model of whole-tract digestion and methanogenesis in the lactating dairy cow: model development, evaluation and application. J. Anim. Sci. 79, 1584-97] to predict the feed value of grass-based diets for milk production. The dataset for evaluation consists of 41 treatments of grass-based diets (at least 0.75 g ryegrass/g diet on DM basis). For each model, the predicted energy or nutrient supply, based on observed intake, was compared with predicted requirement based on observed performance. Assessment of the error of energy or nutrient supply relative to requirement is made by calculation of mean square prediction error (MSPE) and by concordance correlation coefficient (CCC). All energy evaluation systems predicted energy requirement to be lower (6-11%) than energy supply. The root MSPE (expressed as a proportion of the supply) was lowest for the mechanistic model (0.061), followed by the Dutch NE system (0.082), FIM ME system (0.097) and AFRCME system(0.118). For the energy evaluation systems, the error due to overall bias of prediction dominated the MSPE, whereas for the mechanistic model, proportionally 0.76 of MSPE was due to random variation. CCC analysis confirmed the higher accuracy and precision of the mechanistic model compared with energy evaluation systems. The error of prediction was positively related to grass protein content for the Dutch NE system, and was also positively related to grass DMI level for all models. In conclusion, current energy evaluation systems overestimate energy supply relative to energy requirement on grass-based diets for dairy cattle. The mechanistic model predicted glucogenic nutrients to limit performance of dairy cattle on grass-based diets, and proved to be more accurate and precise than the energy systems. The mechanistic model could be improved by allowing glucose maintenance and utilization requirements parameters to be variable. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic parameters and evaluations from single- and multiple-trait analysis of dairy cow fertility and milk production

Genetic parameters and breeding values for dairy cow fertility were estimated from 62 443 lactation records. Two-trait analysis of fertility and milk yield was investigated as a method to estimate fertility breeding values when culling or selection based on milk yield in early lactation determines presence or absence of fertility observations in later lactations. Fertility traits were calving interval, intervals from calving to first service, calving to conception and first to last service, conception success to first service and number of services per conception. Milk production traits were 305-day milk, fat and protein yield. For fertility traits, range of estimates of heritability (h(2)) was 0.012 to 0.028 and of permanent environmental variance (c(2)) was 0.016 to 0.032. Genetic correlations (r(g)) among fertility traits were generally high ( > 0.70). Genetic correlations of fertility with milk production traits were unfavourable (range -0.11 to 0.46). Single and two-trait analyses of fertility were compared using the same data set. The estimates of h(2) and c(2) were similar for two types of analyses. However, there were differences between estimated breeding values and rankings for the same trait from single versus multi-trait analyses. The range for rank correlation was 0.69-0.83 for all animals in the pedigree and 0.89-0.96 for sires with more than 25 daughters. As single-trait method is biased due to selection on milk yield, a multi-trait evaluation of fertility with milk yield is recommended. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Juvenile-mature wood transition in pine: correlation between wood properties and candidate gene expression profiles

There is a strong desire to exploit transcriptomics data from model species for the genetic improvement of non-model crops. Here, we use gene expression profiles from the commercial model Pinus taeda to identify candidate genes implicated in juvenile-mature wood transition in the non-model relative, P. sylvestris. Re-analysis of 'public domain' SAGE data from xylem tissues of P. taeda revealed 283 mature-abundant and 396 juvenile-abundant tags (P < 0.01), of which 70 and 137, respectively matched to genes with known function. Based on sequence similarity, we then isolated 16 putative homologues of genes that in P. taeda exhibited widest divergence in expression between juvenile and mature samples. Candidate expression levels in P. sylvestris were almost invariably differential between juvenile and mature woody tissue samples among two cohorts of five trees collected from the same seed source and selected for genetic uniformity by genetic distance analysis. However, the direction of differential expression was not always consistent with that described in the original P. taeda SAGE data. Correlation was observed between gene expression and juvenile-mature wood anatomical characteristics by OPLS analysis. Four candidates (alpha-tubulin, porin MIP1, lipid transfer protein and aquaporin like protein) apparently had greatest influence on the wood traits measured. Speculative function of these genes in relation to juvenile-mature wood transition is briefly explored. Thus, we demonstrate the feasibility of exploiting SAGE data from a model species to identify consistently differentially expressed candidates in a related non-model species.

13C-2H correlation NMR spectroscopy studies of the in vivo transformations of natural products from Artemisia annua

13C-2H correlation NMR spectroscopy (13C-2H COSY) permits the identification of 13C and 2H nuclei which are connected to one another by a single chemical bond via the sizeable 1JCD coupling constant. The practical development of this technique is described using a 13C-2H COSY pulse sequence which is derived from the classical 13C-1H correlation experiment. An example is given of the application of 13C-2H COSY to the study of the biogenesis of natural products from the anti-malarial plant Artemisia annua, using a doubly-labelled precursor molecule. Although the biogenesis of artemisinin, the anti-malarial principle from this species, has been extensively studied over the past twenty years there is still no consensus as to the true biosynthetic route to this important natural product – indeed, some published experimental results are directly contradictory. One possible reason for this confusion may be the ease with which some of the metabolites from A. annua undergo spontaneous autoxidation, as exemplified by our recent in vitro studies of the spontaneous autoxidation of dihydroartemisinic acid, and the application of 13C-2H COSY to this biosynthetic problem has been important in helping to mitigate against such processes. In this in vivo application of 13C-2H COSY, [15-13C2H3]-dihydroartemisinic acid (the doubly-labelled analogue of the natural product from this species which was obtained through synthesis) was fed to A. annua plants and was shown to be converted into several natural products which have been described previously, including artemisinin. It is proposed that all of these transformations occurred via a tertiary hydroperoxide intermediate, which is derived from dihyroartemisinic acid. This intermediate was observed directly in this feeding experiment by the 13C-2H COSY technique; its observation by more traditional procedures (e.g., chromatographic separation, followed by spectroscopic analysis of the purified product) would have been difficult owing to the instability of the hydroperoxide group (as had been established previously by our in vitro studies of the spontaneous autoxidation of dihydroartemisinic acid). This same hydroperoxide has been reported as the initial product of the spontaneous autoxidation of dihydroartemisinic acid in our previous in vitro studies. Its observation in this feeding experiment by the 13C-2H COSY technique, a procedure which requires the minimum of sample manipulation in order to achieve a reliable identification of metabolites (based on both 13C and 2H chemical shifts at the 15-position), provides the best possible evidence for its status as a genuine biosynthetic intermediate, rather than merely as an artifact of the experimental procedure.

First structural analysis of a naphthalene-based poly(ether ketone): Crystal and molecular simulation from X-ray powder data and diffraction modeling

Polycondensation of 2,6-dihydroxynaphthalene with 4,4'-bis(4"-fluorobenzoyl)biphenyl affords a novel, semicrystalline poly(ether ketone) with a melting point of 406 degreesC and glass transition temperature (onset) of 168 degreesC. Molecular modeling and diffraction-simulation studies of this polymer, coupled with data from the single-crystal structure of an oligomer model, have enabled the crystal and molecular structure of the polymer to be determined from X-ray powder data. This structure-the first for any naphthalene-containing poly(ether ketone)-is fully ordered, in monoclinic space group P2(1)/b, with two chains per unit cell. Rietveld refinement against the experimental powder data gave a final agreement factor (R-wp) of 6.7%.

Potential energy surface and MULTIMODE vibrational analysis of C2H3+

A full dimensional, ab initio-based semiglobal potential energy surface for C2H3+ is reported. The ab initio electronic energies for this molecule are calculated using the spin-restricted, coupled cluster method restricted to single and double excitations with triples corrections [RCCSD(T)]. The RCCSD(T) method is used with the correlation-consistent polarized valence triple-zeta basis augmented with diffuse functions (aug-cc-pVTZ). The ab initio potential energy surface is represented by a many-body (cluster) expansion, each term of which uses functions that are fully invariant under permutations of like nuclei. The fitted potential energy surface is validated by comparing normal mode frequencies at the global minimum and secondary minimum with previous and new direct ab initio frequencies. The potential surface is used in vibrational analysis using the "single-reference" and "reaction-path" versions of the code MULTIMODE. (c) 2006 American Institute of Physics.

An entropy-based financial decision support system (e-FDSS) for project analysis in construction SMEs

Uncertainty contributes a major part in the accuracy of a decision-making process while its inconsistency is always difficult to be solved by existing decision-making tools. Entropy has been proved to be useful to evaluate the inconsistency of uncertainty among different respondents. The study demonstrates an entropy-based financial decision support system called e-FDSS. This integrated system provides decision support to evaluate attributes (funding options and multiple risks) available in projects. Fuzzy logic theory is included in the system to deal with the qualitative aspect of these options and risks. An adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA) is also employed to solve the decision algorithm in the system in order to provide optimal and consistent rates to these attributes. Seven simplified and parallel projects from a Hong Kong construction small and medium enterprise (SME) were assessed to evaluate the system. The result shows that the system calculates risk adjusted discount rates (RADR) of projects in an objective way. These rates discount project cash flow impartially. Inconsistency of uncertainty is also successfully evaluated by the use of the entropy method. Finally, the system identifies the favourable funding options that are managed by a scheme called SME Loan Guarantee Scheme (SGS). Based on these results, resource allocation could then be optimized and the best time to start a new project could also be identified throughout the overall project life cycle.

An analysis of real time implementation of Fourier transform-based frequency recognition algorithms

Frequency recognition is an important task in many engineering fields such as audio signal processing and telecommunications engineering, for example in applications like Dual-Tone Multi-Frequency (DTMF) detection or the recognition of the carrier frequency of a Global Positioning, System (GPS) signal. This paper will present results of investigations on several common Fourier Transform-based frequency recognition algorithms implemented in real time on a Texas Instruments (TI) TMS320C6713 Digital Signal Processor (DSP) core. In addition, suitable metrics are going to be evaluated in order to ascertain which of these selected algorithms is appropriate for audio signal processing(1).

Slogger: a profiling and analysis system based on semantic web technologies

Increasingly, distributed systems are being used to host all manner of applications. While these platforms provide a relatively cheap and effective means of executing applications, so far there has been little work in developing tools and utilities that can help application developers understand problems with the supporting software, or the executing applications. To fully understand why an application executing on a distributed system is not behaving as would be expected it is important that not only the application, but also the underlying middleware, and the operating system are analysed too, otherwise issues could be missed and certainly overall performance profiling and fault diagnoses would be harder to understand. We believe that one approach to profiling and the analysis of distributed systems and the associated applications is via the plethora of log files generated at runtime. In this paper we report on a system (Slogger), that utilises various emerging Semantic Web technologies to gather the heterogeneous log files generated by the various layers in a distributed system and unify them in common data store. Once unified, the log data can be queried and visualised in order to highlight potential problems or issues that may be occurring in the supporting software or the application itself.