Mean climate and transience in the tropics of the UGAMP GCM - sensitivity to convective parametrization

The sensitivity of the UK Universities Global Atmospheric Modelling Programme (UGAMP) General Circulation Model (UGCM) to two very different approaches to convective parametrization is described. Comparison is made between a Kuo scheme, which is constrained by large-scale moisture convergence, and a convective-adjustment scheme, which relaxes to observed thermodynamic states. Results from 360-day integrations with perpetual January conditions are used to describe the model's tropical time-mean climate and its variability. Both convection schemes give reasonable simulations of the time-mean climate, but the representation of the main modes of tropical variability is markedly different. The Kuo scheme has much weaker variance, confined to synoptic frequencies near 4 days, and a poor simulation of intraseasonal variability. In contrast, the convective-adjustment scheme has much more transient activity at all time-scales. The various aspects of the two schemes which might explain this difference are discussed. The particular closure on moisture convergence used in this version of the Kuo scheme is identified as being inappropriate.

Seeing things: perception, experience and the constraints of excavation

Recent attempts to problematize archaeological fieldwork concerned with excavation at the expense of surface survey, and with questions of procedure more than interpretations of the past. In fact these two kinds of fieldwork offer quite different possibilities and suffer from different constraints. Thought must be given to ways in which they can be combined if they are to make a real contribution to social archaeology. The argument is illustrated by a project carried out at a megalithic cemetery in Scotland.

TIGGE: Comparison of the prediction of northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones by different ensemble prediction systems

The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) is a World Weather Research Programme project. One of its main objectives is to enhance collaboration on the development of ensemble prediction between operational centers and universities by increasing the availability of ensemble prediction system (EPS) data for research. This study analyzes the prediction of Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones by nine different EPSs archived as part of the TIGGE project for the 6-month time period of 1 February 2008–31 July 2008, which included a sample of 774 cyclones. An objective feature tracking method has been used to identify and track the cyclones along the forecast trajectories. Forecast verification statistics have then been produced [using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analysis as the truth] for cyclone position, intensity, and propagation speed, showing large differences between the different EPSs. The results show that the ECMWF ensemble mean and control have the highest level of skill for all cyclone properties. The Japanese Meteorological Administration (JMA), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Met Office (UKMO), and the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) have 1 day less skill for the position of cyclones throughout the forecast range. The relative performance of the different EPSs remains the same for cyclone intensity except for NCEP, which has larger errors than for position. NCEP, the Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC), and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) all have faster intensity error growth in the earlier part of the forecast. They are also very underdispersive and significantly underpredict intensities, perhaps due to the comparatively low spatial resolutions of these EPSs not being able to accurately model the tilted structure essential to cyclone growth and decay. There is very little difference between the levels of skill of the ensemble mean and control for cyclone position, but the ensemble mean provides an advantage over the control for all EPSs except CPTEC in cyclone intensity and there is an advantage for propagation speed for all EPSs. ECMWF and JMA have an excellent spread–skill relationship for cyclone position. The EPSs are all much more underdispersive for cyclone intensity and propagation speed than for position, with ECMWF and CMC performing best for intensity and CMC performing best for propagation speed. ECMWF is the only EPS to consistently overpredict cyclone intensity, although the bias is small. BoM, NCEP, UKMO, and CPTEC significantly underpredict intensity and, interestingly, all the EPSs underpredict the propagation speed, that is, the cyclones move too slowly on average in all EPSs.

Lighting the homes of people who are visually impaired

An extended research project, funded by the Thomas Pocklington Trust, and carried out by the Research Group for Inclusive Environments (RGIE) at The University of Reading, has examined the lighting found in the homes of people who are visually impaired (VIP). This paper will summarise the results of this substantive study. All the surveyed homes have been occupied by people with sight loss, some of the dwellings were shared with sighted partners. There are several safety issues concerning domestic lighting where inadequate provision may contribute to the incidence of personal injuries occurring in the home. Qualitative and quantitative data from questionnaires, photometric surveys and faceto- face interviews have been obtained from 57 homes. The nature and extent of the visual impairment of each study participant has been identified. This paper will identify important findings from the study, including: a range of areas and tasks within the home that visually impaired people find inadequately lit; the variability of illuminance provided for task lighting and general lighting; and how effective visually impaired people find a selection different lighting systems to those that they commonly use. The research team are able to offer preliminary design guidance for lighting the homes of people who are visually impaired. These will be summarised in the paper.

The contribution of building research to the independence and quality of life of older people

Many nations are experiencing rapid rises in the life expectancy of their citizens. The implications of this major demographic shift are considerable offering opportunities as well as challenges to reconsider how people should spend their later years. A key task is enhancing the quality of life of older people through enabling them to continue to live independently even though illness, accident or frailty may have severely reduced their physical and sensory abilities and, possibly, mental health. Yet the needs of older people and disabled people have been largely ignored in the design of everyday consumer products, the home, transport systems and the built environment in general. Whilst the need for designers, engineers and technologists to provide products, environments and systems which are inclusive of all members of society is widely accepted, there is little understanding of how this can be achieved. In 1998 the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council established its EQUAL Initiative. This has encouraged design, engineering and technology researchers in universities to join with their colleagues from the social, medical and health sciences to investigate a wide range of issues experienced by older and disabled people and to propose solutions. Their research, which directly involves older and disabled people and, for example, social housing providers, social services departments, charities, engineering and architectural consultants, and transport firms, has been extremely successful. In a very short time it has influenced government policy on housing, long-term care, and building standards, and findings have been taken up by architects, designers, health-care professionals and bodies which represent older and disabled people.

Position paper on the future of social networking

Social networking mediated by web sites is a relatively new phenomenon and as with all technological innovations there continues to be a period of both technical and social adjustment to fit the services in with people’s behaviours, and for people to adjust their practices in the light of the affordances provided by the technology. Social networking benefits strongly from large scale availability. Users gain greater benefit from social networking services when more of their friends are using them.This applies in social terms, but also in eLearning and professional networks. The network effect provides one explanation for the popularity of internet based social networking sites (SNS) because the number of connections between people which can be maintained by using them is greatly increased in comparison to the networks available before the internet. The ability of users to determine how much they trust information available to them from contacts within their social network is important in almost all modes of use. As sources of information on a range of topics from academic to shopping advice, the level of trust which a user can put in other nodes is a key aspect of the utility of the system.

Sleeping with half open eyes: dreams and realities in The Cry of the Owl

This article is a close analysis of The Cry of the Owl (Thraves, 2009). It is also part of larger project to bring together traditions of detailed criticism with those of production history, which culminates in second article on the film due to be published in 2011. The detail of the argument concerns analysing a range of the film’s key signifying systems, with a particular interest in the way the film explores the gap between images / impressions and characters’ realities; engages in a complex way with generic traditions and modes of address; establishes complex patterns of connection and contrast through blocking, camera strategies and narrative structure.

Processes governing the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a coupled GCM

The processes that govern the predictability of decadal variations in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) are investigated in a long control simulation of the ECHO-G coupled atmosphere–ocean model. We elucidate the roles of local stochastic forcing by the atmosphere, and other potential ocean processes, and use our results to build a predictive regression model. The primary influence on MOC variability is found to come from air–sea heat fluxes over the Eastern Labrador Sea. The maximum correlation between such anomalies and the variations in the MOC occurs at a lead time of 2 years, but we demonstrate that the MOC integrates the heat flux variations over a period of 10 years. The corresponding univariate regression model accounts for 74.5% of the interannual variability in the MOC (after the Ekman component has been removed). Dense anomalies to the south of the Greenland-Scotland ridge are also shown to precede the overturning variations by 4–6 years, and provide a second predictor. With the inclusion of this second predictor the resulting regression model explains 82.8% of the total variance of the MOC. This final bivariate model is also tested during large rapid decadal overturning events. The sign of the rapid change is always well represented by the bivariate model, but the magnitude is usually underestimated, suggesting that other processes are also important for these large rapid decadal changes in the MOC.

Out of the ivory tower: the impact of wider social contact on the values, religious beliefs and identities of Chinese postgraduate students in the UK

This article explores the impact of wider social contact on the experience of Chinese postgraduate students of adaptation to life in the UK. Focus group and individual interviews were conducted with a group of 11 Chinese students on an MA programme at a university in southern England and individual interviews with three representatives of a local volunteer group (LVG) offering support to the Chinese students. Although it was perceived that the students’ support needs were not adequately met by the University, the additional support offered outside the University was unanimously valued and considered as enriching their cultural and linguistic experiences and meeting their expectations. However, frequent social contact with the LVG, whose members were mostly Christians, also had an impact on their values, religious beliefs and identities. In a discussion framed within the sociological perspective of proselytization or religious conversion and the broad framework of international education and globalization, the different responses to this contact are described in terms of believers, doubters, empathisers and commentators. Implications are considered for universities, people involved in providing social support for international students, and sponsors of international students.