Characteristics of tropical cyclones in high-resolution models in the present climate

The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) fields in two types of experiments, using climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TC frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models.

The DYMECS project: a statistical approach for the evaluation of convective storms in high-resolution NWP models

A new frontier in weather forecasting is emerging by operational forecast models now being run at convection-permitting resolutions at many national weather services. However, this is not a panacea; significant systematic errors remain in the character of convective storms and rainfall distributions. The DYMECS project (Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms) is taking a fundamentally new approach to evaluate and improve such models: rather than relying on a limited number of cases, which may not be representative, we have gathered a large database of 3D storm structures on 40 convective days using the Chilbolton radar in southern England. We have related these structures to storm life-cycles derived by tracking features in the rainfall from the UK radar network, and compared them statistically to storm structures in the Met Office model, which we ran at horizontal grid length between 1.5 km and 100 m, including simulations with different subgrid mixing length. We also evaluated the scale and intensity of convective updrafts using a new radar technique. We find that the horizontal size of simulated convective storms and the updrafts within them is much too large at 1.5-km resolution, such that the convective mass flux of individual updrafts can be too large by an order of magnitude. The scale of precipitation cores and updrafts decreases steadily with decreasing grid lengths, as does the typical storm lifetime. The 200-m grid-length simulation with standard mixing length performs best over all diagnostics, although a greater mixing length improves the representation of deep convective storms.

Diet rich in high glucoraphanin broccoli reduces plasma LDL cholesterol: evidence from randomised controlled trials

Cruciferous-rich diets have been associated with reduction in plasma LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C), which may be due to the action of isothiocyanates derived from glucosinolates that accumulate in these vegetables. This study tests the hypothesis that a diet rich in high glucoraphanin (HG) broccoli will reduce plasma LDL-C. METHODS AND RESULTS: One hundred and thirty volunteers were recruited to two independent double-blind, randomly allocated parallel dietary intervention studies, and were assigned to consume either 400 g standard broccoli or 400 g HG broccoli per week for 12 weeks. Plasma lipids were quantified before and after the intervention. In study 1 (37 volunteers), the HG broccoli diet reduced plasma LDL-C by 7.1% (95% CI: -1.8%, -12.3%, p = 0.011), whereas standard broccoli reduced LDL-C by 1.8% (95% CI +3.9%, -7.5%, ns). In study 2 (93 volunteers), the HG broccoli diet resulted in a reduction of 5.1% (95% CI: -2.1%, -8.1%, p = 0.001), whereas standard broccoli reduced LDL-C by 2.5% (95% CI: +0.8%, -5.7%, ns). When data from the two studies were combined the reduction in LDL-C by the HG broccoli was significantly greater than standard broccoli (p = 0.031). CONCLUSION: Evidence from two independent human studies indicates that consumption of high glucoraphanin broccoli significantly reduces plasma LDL-C

Convective updraught evaluation in high-resolution NWP simulations using single-Doppler radar measurements

This study presents an evaluation of the size and strength of convective updraughts in high-resolution simulations by the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM). Updraught velocities have been estimated from range–height indicator (RHI) Doppler velocity measurements using the Chilbolton advanced meteorological radar, as part of the Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms (DYMECS) project. Based on mass continuity and the vertical integration of the observed radial convergence, vertical velocities tend to be underestimated for convective clouds due to the undetected cross-radial convergence. Velocity fields from the UM at a resolution corresponding to the radar observations are used to scale such estimates to mitigate the inherent biases. The analysis of more than 100 observed and simulated storms indicates that the horizontal scale of updraughts in simulations tend to decrease with grid length; the 200 m grid length agreed most closely with the observations. Typical updraught mass fluxes in the 500 m grid length simulations were up to an order of magnitude greater than observed, and greater still in the 1.5 km grid length simulations. The effect of increasing the mixing length in the sub-grid turbulence scheme depends on the grid length. For the 1.5 km simulations, updraughts were weakened though their horizontal scale remained largely unchanged. Progressively more so for the sub-kilometre grid lengths, updraughts were broadened and intensified; horizontal scale was now determined by the mixing length rather than the grid length. In general, simulated updraughts were found to weaken too quickly with height. The findings were supported by the analysis of the widths of reflectivity patterns in both the simulations and observations.

Reading aloud in high schools: students and teachers across the curriculum

Reading aloud is apparently an indispensible part of teaching. Nevertheless, little is known about reading aloud across the curriculum by students and teachers in high schools. Nor do we understand teachers’ attitudes towards issues such as error correction, rehearsal time, and selecting students to read. A survey of 360 teachers in England shows that, although they have little training in reading aloud, they are extremely confident. Reading aloud by students and teachers is strongly related, and serves to further understanding rather than administrative purposes or pupils’ enjoyment. Unexpectedly, Modern Language teachers express views that set them apart from other subjects.

Aspects of particle filtering in high-dimensional spaces

Nonlinear data assimilation is high on the agenda in all fields of the geosciences as with ever increasing model resolution and inclusion of more physical (biological etc.) processes, and more complex observation operators the data-assimilation problem becomes more and more nonlinear. The suitability of particle filters to solve the nonlinear data assimilation problem in high-dimensional geophysical problems will be discussed. Several existing and new schemes will be presented and it is shown that at least one of them, the Equivalent-Weights Particle Filter, does indeed beat the curse of dimensionality and provides a way forward to solve the problem of nonlinear data assimilation in high-dimensional systems.