Arctic warming, atmospheric blocking and cold European winters in CMIP5 models

Amplified Arctic warming is expected to have a significant longterm influence on the midlatitude atmospheric circulation by the latter half of the 21st century. Potential influences of recent and near future Arctic changes on shorter timescales are much less clear, despite having received much recent attention in the literature. In this letter, climate models from the recent CMIP5 experiment are analysed for evidence of an influence of Arctic temperatures on midlatitude blocking and cold European winters in particular. The focus is on the variability of these features in detrended data and, in contrast to other studies, limited evidence of an influence is found. The occurrence of cold European winters is found to be largely independent of the temperature variability in the key Barents–Kara Sea region. Positive correlations of the Barents–Kara temperatures with Eurasian blocking are found in some models, but significant correlations are limited.

A new Rossby Wave-breaking interpretation of the North Atlantic Oscillation

This paper proposes the hypothesis that the low-frequency variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) arises as a result of variations in the occurrence of upper-level Rossby wave–breaking events over the North Atlantic. These events lead to synoptic situations similar to midlatitude blocking that are referred to as high-latitude blocking episodes. A positive NAO is envisaged as being a description of periods in which these episodes are infrequent and can be considered as a basic, unblocked situation. A negative NAO is a description of periods in which episodes occur frequently. A similar, but weaker, relationship exists between wave breaking over the Pacific and the west Pacific pattern. Evidence is given to support this hypothesis by using a two-dimensional potential-vorticity-based index to identify wave breaking at various latitudes. This is applied to Northern Hemisphere winter data from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40), and the events identified are then related to the NAO. Certain dynamical precursors are identified that appear to increase the likelihood of wave breaking. These suggest mechanisms by which variability in the tropical Pacific, and in the stratosphere, could affect the NAO.

The release of silicon from amorphous silica and rice straw in Sri Lankan soils

Silicon release from rice straw and amorphous silica when shaken in solution with five Sri Lankan soils was studied indirectly using sorption isotherms and changes in concentration and directly using straw in dialysis bags examined using electron microscopy. The aim was to further our understanding of the processes and factors affecting the release of straw-Si in soils and its availability to rice. The soils (alfisols and ultisols) shaken with 0.1 M NaCl (5 g per 125 mL for 250 days) produced concentrations of 1 - 4 mg L-1 of monosilicic acid-Si. Amorphous silica added to these suspensions (36.5 mg, containing 17 mg Si) raised the concentrations to 20 - 40 mg L-1, and added rice straw (0.5 g, containing 17 mg Si) gave 10 - 25 mg L-1. Sorption isotherms (7 days equilibrations) were used to calculate from the concentrations the amounts of Si released ( 24 - 38% and 8 - 21%, respectively). Both materials gave about 40 mg L-1 of monosilicic acid-Si plus 30 mg L-1 of disilicic acid-Si when shaken in solution alone (5 g per 125 mL). Straw in dialysis bags ( 0.5 g per 25 mL in 0.1 M NaCl) was shaken in soil suspension ( 5 g per 100 mL) for 60 days. Similar concentrations and releases were measured to those obtained above. About one fifth of the mass of straw was lost by decomposition in the first 15 days. A chloroform treatment prevented decomposition, but Si release was unaffected. Disintegration continued throughout the experiments, with phytoliths being exposed and dissolved. Compared to the rate of release from straw into solution without soil, the release of Si into soil suspensions was increased during the first 20 days by adsorption on the soil, but was then reduced probably through the effect of Fe and Al on the phytolith surfaces. The extent of this blocking effect varied between soils and was not simply related to soil pH.

Tracing pre-eruptive magma degassing using (Pb-210/Ra-226) disequilibria in the volcanic deposits of the 1980-1986 eruption of Mount St. Helens

Disequilibria between Pb-210 and Ra-226 can be used to trace magma degassing, because the intermediate nuclides, particularly Rn-222, are volatile. Products of the 1980-1986 eruptions of Mount St. Helens have been analysed for (Pb-210/Ra-226). Both excesses and deficits of Pb-210 are encountered suggesting rapid gas transfer. The time scale of diffuse, non-eruptive gas escape prior to 1980 as documented by Pb-210 deficits is on the order of a decade using the model developed by Gauthier and Condomines (Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 172 (1999) 111-126) for a non-renewed magma chamber and efficient Rn removal. The time required to build-up Pb-210 excess is much shorter (months) as can be observed from steady increases of (Pb-210/Ra-226) with time during 1980-1982. The formation of Pb-210 excess requires both rapid gas transport through the magma and periodic blocking of gas escape routes. Superposed on this time trend is the natural variability of (Pb-210/Ra-226) in a single eruption caused by tapping magma from various depths. The two time scales of gas transport, to create both Pb-210 deficits and Pb-210 excesses, cannot be reconciled in a single event. Rather Pb-210 deficits are associated with pre-eruptive diffuse degassing, while Pb-210 excesses document the more vigorous degassing associated with eruption and recharge of the system. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of aluminum hydroxide on potassium release from two Colombian soils

The effect of sesquioxides on the mechanisms of chemical reactions that govern the transformation between exchangeable potassium (Kex) and non-exchangeable K (Knex) was studied on acid tropical soils from Colombia: Caribia with predominantly 2 : 1 clay minerals and High Terrace with predominantly 1 : 1 clay minerals and sesquioxides. Illite and vermiculite are the main clay minerals in Caribia followed by kaolinite, gibbsite, and plagioclase, and kaolinite is the major clay mineral in High Terrace followed by hydroxyl-Al interlayered vermiculite, quartz, and pyrophyllite. The soils have 1.8 and 0.5% of K2O, respectively. They were used either untreated or prepared by adding AlCl3 and NaOH, which produced aluminum hydroxide. The soils were percolated continuously with 10mM NH4OAc at pH 7.0 and 10 mM CaCl2 at pH 5.8 for 120 h at 6 mL h(-1) to examine the release of Kex and Knex. In the untreated soils, NH4+ and Ca-2(+) released the same amounts of Kex from Caribia, whereas NH4+ released about twice as much Kex as Ca2+ from High Terrace. This study proposes that the small ionic size of NH4+ (0.54nm) enables it to enter more easily into the K sites at the broken edges of the kaolinite where Ca2+ (0.96 nm) cannot have access. As expected for a soil dominated by 2 : 1 clay minerals, Ca2+ caused Knex to be released from Caribia with no release by NH4+. No Knex was released by either ion from High Terrace. After treatment with aluminum hydroxide, K release from the exchangeable fraction was reduced in Caribia due to the blocking of the exchange sites but release of Knex was not affected. The treatment increased the amount of Kex released from the High Terrace soil and the release of Knex remained negligible although with Ca2+ the distinction between Kex and Knex was unclear. The increase in Kex was attributed to the initially acidic conditions produced by adding AlCl3 which may have dissolved interlayered aluminum hydroxide from the vermiculite present, thus exposing trapped K as exchangeable K. The subsequent precipitation of aluminum hydroxide when NaOH was added did not interfere with the release of this K, and so was probably formed mostly on the surface of the dominant kaolinite. Measurement of availability of K by standard methods using NH4 salts could result in overestimates in High Terrace and this may be a more general shortcoming of the methods in kaolinitic soils.

The release of silicon from amorphous silica and rice straw in Sri Lankan soils

Silicon release from rice straw and amorphous silica when shaken in solution with five Sri Lankan soils was studied indirectly using sorption isotherms and changes in concentration and directly using straw in dialysis bags examined using electron microscopy. The aim was to further our understanding of the processes and factors affecting the release of straw-Si in soils and its availability to rice. The soils (alfisols and ultisols) shaken with 0.1 M NaCl (5 g per 125 mL for 250 days) produced concentrations of 1 - 4 mg L-1 of monosilicic acid-Si. Amorphous silica added to these suspensions (36.5 mg, containing 17 mg Si) raised the concentrations to 20 - 40 mg L-1, and added rice straw (0.5 g, containing 17 mg Si) gave 10 - 25 mg L-1. Sorption isotherms (7 days equilibrations) were used to calculate from the concentrations the amounts of Si released ( 24 - 38% and 8 - 21%, respectively). Both materials gave about 40 mg L-1 of monosilicic acid-Si plus 30 mg L-1 of disilicic acid-Si when shaken in solution alone (5 g per 125 mL). Straw in dialysis bags ( 0.5 g per 25 mL in 0.1 M NaCl) was shaken in soil suspension ( 5 g per 100 mL) for 60 days. Similar concentrations and releases were measured to those obtained above. About one fifth of the mass of straw was lost by decomposition in the first 15 days. A chloroform treatment prevented decomposition, but Si release was unaffected. Disintegration continued throughout the experiments, with phytoliths being exposed and dissolved. Compared to the rate of release from straw into solution without soil, the release of Si into soil suspensions was increased during the first 20 days by adsorption on the soil, but was then reduced probably through the effect of Fe and Al on the phytolith surfaces. The extent of this blocking effect varied between soils and was not simply related to soil pH.

Do High-Frequency Eddies Contribute to Low-Frequency Teleconnection Tendencies?*

An isentropic potential vorticity (PV) budget analysis is employed to examine the role of synoptic transients, advection, and nonconservative processes as forcings for the evolution of the low-frequency PV anomalies locally and those associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern. Specifically, the rate of change of the low-frequency PV is expressed as a sum of tendencies due to divergence of eddy transport, advection by the low-frequency flow (hereafter referred to as advection), and the residual nonconservative processes. The balance between the variances and covariances of these terms is illustrated using a novel vector representation. It is shown that for most locations, as well as for the PNA pattern, the PV variability is dominantly driven by advection. The eddy forcing explains a small amount of the tendency variance. For the NAO, the role of synoptic eddy fluxes is found to be stronger, explaining on average 15% of the NAO tendency variance. Previous studies have not assessed quantitively how the various forcings balance the tendency. Thus, such studies may have overestimated the role of eddy fluxes for the evolution of teleconnections by examining, for example, composites and regressions that indicate maintenance, rather than evolution driven by the eddies. The authors confirm this contrasting view by showing that during persistent blocking (negative NAO) episodes the eddy driving is relatively stronger.

Phenolic contents of lettuce, strawberry, raspberry, and blueberry crops cultivated under plastic films varying in ultraviolet transparency

The levels of health-related phytochemicals were determined in lettuce leaf and in strawberry, raspberry and blueberry fruits grown in near-commercial conditions under plastic films of three different UV transparencies. In the red lettuce Lollo Rosso, total phenolics, anthocyanin, luteolin and quercetin levels were all raised by changing from a UV blocking film to a film of low UV transparency, and to a film of high UV transparency. The related green lettuce, Lollo Biondo, cultivated under the same conditions, showed virtually no phytochemical responses to the same variation in UV levels. Overall, the phenolic levels of strawberries, raspberries, and blueberries were unresponsive to the UV transparency of the plastic film under which the crops were grown. The significance of these findings is discussed in relation to the nutritional quality of soft fruit and salad crops which are increasingly being grown commercially under plastic tunnels.

Hybridization between Brassica napus and B. rapa on a national scale in the United Kingdom

Measures blocking hybridization would prevent or reduce biotic or environmental change caused by gene flow from genetically modified (GM) crops to wild relatives. The efficacy of any such measure depends on hybrid numbers within the legislative region over the life-span of the GM cultivar. We present a national assessment of hybridization between rapeseed (Brassica napus) and B. rapa from a combination of sources, including population surveys, remote sensing, pollen dispersal profiles, herbarium data, local Floras, and other floristic databases. Across the United Kingdom, we estimate that 32,000 hybrids form annually in waterside B. rapa populations, whereas the less abundant weedy populations contain 17,000 hybrids. These findings set targets for strategies to eliminate hybridization and represent the first step toward quantitative risk assessment on a national scale.

The interaction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation with the Maritime Continent in a GCM

Previous studies using the Hadley Centre coupled model (HadCM3) have shown that the islands of the Maritime Continent act as an unrealistic block to the eastward propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This blocking effect is investigated using a simplified, aqua-planet version of this GCM, with various idealized configurations of the Maritime Continent islands placed on the equator, and an MJO-like convective signal forced by a propagating sea-surface temperature anomaly dipole. Results suggest that it is the orography of the islands, rather than the presence of the islands themselves, which results in the blocking of the MJO. Although the peak elevation of the orography in the GCM is very much lower than in reality, it appears to act as effective block to the eastward propagation of the low-level Kelvin wave signal which accompanies the MJO. In particular, the representation of Sumatra in the GCM, as a north-south oriented ridge straddling the equator, seems to be particularly effective at blocking the Kelvin wave signal, which in a full GCM would result in the weakening or complete extinction of the MJO signal to the east of the Maritime Continent.

The physical properties of the atmosphere in the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1). Part II: Aspects of variability and regional climate

The performance of the atmospheric component of the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1) is assessed in terms of its ability to represent a selection of key aspects of variability in the Tropics and extratropics. These include midlatitude storm tracks and blocking activity, synoptic variability over Europe, and the North Atlantic Oscillation together with tropical convection, the Madden-Julian oscillation, and the Asian summer monsoon. Comparisons with the previous model, the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), demonstrate that there has been a considerable increase in the transient eddy kinetic energy (EKE), bringing HadGEM1 into closer agreement with current reanalyses. This increase in EKE results from the increased horizontal resolution and, in combination with the improved physical parameterizations, leads to improvements in the representation of Northern Hemisphere storm tracks and blocking. The simulation of synoptic weather regimes over Europe is also greatly improved compared to HadCM3, again due to both increased resolution and other model developments. The variability of convection in the equatorial region is generally stronger and closer to observations than in HadCM3. There is, however, still limited convective variance coincident with several of the observed equatorial wave modes. Simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation is improved in HadGEM1: both the activity and interannual variability are increased and the eastward propagation, although slower than observed, is much better simulated. While some aspects of the climatology of the Asian summer monsoon are improved in HadGEM1, the upper-level winds are too weak and the simulation of precipitation deteriorates. The dominant modes of monsoon interannual variability are similar in the two models, although in HadCM3 this is linked to SST forcing, while in HadGEM1 internal variability dominates. Overall, analysis of the phenomena considered here indicates that HadGEM1 performs well and, in many important respects, improves upon HadCM3. Together with the improved representation of the mean climate, this improvement in the simulation of atmospheric variability suggests that HadGEM1 provides a sound basis for future studies of climate and climate change.

Characteristics and variability of storm tracks in the north Pacific, Bering Sea, and Alaska

The North Pacific and Bering Sea regions represent loci of cyclogenesis and storm track activity. In this paper climatological properties of extratropical storms in the North Pacific/Bering Sea are presented based upon aggregate statistics of individual storm tracks calculated by means of a feature-tracking algorithm run using NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data from 1948/49 to 2008, provided by the NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory and the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Climate Diagnostics Center. Storm identification is based on the 850-hPa relative vorticity field (ζ) instead of the often-used mean sea level pressure; ζ is a prognostic field, a good indicator of synoptic-scale dynamics, and is directly related to the wind speed. Emphasis extends beyond winter to provide detailed consideration of all seasons. Results show that the interseasonal variability is not as large during the spring and autumn seasons. Most of the storm variables—genesis, intensity, track density—exhibited a maxima pattern that was oriented along a zonal axis. From season to season this axis underwent a north–south shift and, in some cases, a rotation to the northeast. This was determined to be a result of zonal heating variations and midtropospheric moisture patterns. Barotropic processes have an influence in shaping the downstream end of storm tracks and, together with the blocking influence of the coastal orography of northwest North America, result in high lysis concentrations, effectively making the Gulf of Alaska the “graveyard” of Pacific storms. Summer storms tended to be longest in duration. Temporal trends tended to be weak over the study area. SST did not emerge as a major cyclogenesis control in the Gulf of Alaska.

Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity?

Solar activity during the current sunspot minimum has fallen to levels unknown since the start of the 20th century. The Maunder minimum (about 1650–1700) was a prolonged episode of low solar activity which coincided with more severe winters in the United Kingdom and continental Europe. Motivated by recent relatively cold winters in the UK, we investigate the possible connection with solar activity. We identify regionally anomalous cold winters by detrending the Central England temperature (CET) record using reconstructions of the northern hemisphere mean temperature. We show that cold winter excursions from the hemispheric trend occur more commonly in the UK during low solar activity, consistent with the solar influence on the occurrence of persistent blocking events in the eastern Atlantic. We stress that this is a regional and seasonal effect relating to European winters and not a global effect. Average solar activity has declined rapidly since 1985 and cosmogenic isotopes suggest an 8% chance of a return to Maunder minimum conditions within the next 50 years (Lockwood 2010 Proc. R. Soc. A 466 303–29): the results presented here indicate that, despite hemispheric warming, the UK and Europe could experience more cold winters than during recent decades.

On the relationship of normal modes to local modes in molecular vibrations

A simple model for the effective vibrational hamiltonian of the XH stretching vibrations in H2O, NH3 and CH4 is considered, based on a morse potential function for the bond stretches plus potential and kinetic energy coupling between pairs of bond oscillators. It is shown that this model can be set up as a matrix in local mode basis functions, or as a matrix in normal mode basis functions, leading to identical results. The energy levels obtained exhibit normal mode patterns at low vibrational excitation, and local mode patterns at high excitation. When the hamiltonian is set up in the normal mode basis it is shown that Darling-Dennison resonances must be included, and simple relations are found to exist between the xrs, gtt, and Krrss anharmonic constants (where the Darling-Dennison coefficients are denoted K) due to their contributions from morse anharmonicity in the bond stretches. The importance of the Darling-Dennison resonances is stressed. The relationship of the two alternative representations of this local mode/normal mode model are investigated, and the potential uses and limitations of the model are discussed.

Enhanced signature of solar variability in Eurasian winter climate

We demonstrate that a new geomagnetic index of solar variability exhibits stronger correlations with atmospheric circulation variations than conventional measures. The circulation anomalies are particularly enhanced over the North Atlantic / Eurasian sector, where there are large changes in the occurrence of blocking and the winter mean surface temperature differs by several degrees between high- and low-solar terciles. The relationship is also simpler, being largely linear between high- and low-solar winters. While the circulation anomalies strongly resemble the North Atlantic Oscillation they also extend deeper into Eurasia, in a distinct signature which may be useful for the detection and attribution of observed changes and also the identification of dynamical mechanisms.