Moisture transport in mid-latitude cyclones

We discuss how synoptic-scale variability controls the transport of atmospheric water vapour by mid-latitude cyclones. Idealised simulations are used to investigate quantitatively what factors determine the magnitude of cyclone moisture transport. It is demonstrated that large-scale ascent on the warmconveyor belt and shallow cumulus convection are equally important for ventilating moisture from the boundary layer into the free troposphere, and that ventilated moisture can be transported large distances eastwards and polewards by the cyclone, before being returned to the surface as precipitation. The initial relative humidity is shown to have little affect on the ability of the cyclone to transport moisture, whilst the absolute temperature and meridional temperature gradient provide much stronger controls. Scaling arguments are presented to quantify the dependence of moisture transport on large-scale and boundary-layer parameters. It is shown that ventilation by shallow convection and warm-conveyor belt advection vary in the same way with changes to large-scale parameters. However, shallow convective ventilation has a much stronger dependence on boundary-layer parameters than warm-conveyor belt ventilation.

Pre-CME onset fuses: do the STEREO heliospheric imagers hold the clues to the CME onset process?

Understanding the onset of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is surely one of the holy grails of solar physics today. Inspection of data from the Heliospheric Imagers (HI), which are part of the SECCHI instrument suite aboard the two NASA STEREO spacecraft, appears to have revealed pre-eruption signatures which may provide valuable evidence for identifying the CME onset mechanism. Specifically, an examination of the HI images has revealed narrow rays comprised of a series of outward-propagating plasma blobs apparently forming near the edge of the streamer belt prior to many CME eruptions. In this pilot study, we inspect a limited dataset to explore the significance of this phenomenon, which we have termed a pre-CME ‘fuse’. Although, the enhanced expulsion of blobs may be consistent with an increase in the release of outward-propagating blobs from the streamers themselves, it could also be interpreted as evidence for interchange reconnection in the period leading to a CME onset. Indeed, it is argued that the latter could even have implications for the end-of-life of CMEs. Thus, the presence of these pre-CME fuses provides evidence that the CME onset mechanism is either related to streamer reconnection processes or the reconnection between closed field lines in the streamer belt and adjacent, open field lines. We investigate the nature of these fuses, including their timing and location with respect to CME launch sites, as well as their speed and topology.

Post War land reform and the impact on planning in Japan

One feature of Japanese urban areas in the 21st century that is bound to strike any Western visitor is the extensive spread of its suburbs with their varied mixing of land-uses. It is almost impossible to pinpoint precisely where the city begins and where it ends. During the post-War period, this characteristic pattern of land-use sprawled over the countryside, seemingly unimpeded by planning restrictions. The number of studies that highlight the problems of Japanese planning outweighs the research that explores its underlying causes. This paper aims to partly redress this imbalance by describing a case study of the failed implementation of the green belt around Tokyo and to link this with the Allied Occupation’s postwar land reforms and drafting of a new constitution in the period 1946-1951. Overall, we aim to highlight how the ostensible benefits and aims of a land reform programme can entail substantial disbenefits or unforeseen outcomes in terms of land-use planning..

A global blended tropopause based on ERA data, Part I: Climatology

A new tropopause definition, based on a flow-dependent blending of the traditional thermal tropopause with one based on potential vorticity, has been developed. The benefits of such a blending algorithm are most apparent in regions with synoptic scale fluctuations between tropical and extratropical airmasses. The properties of the local airmass determine the relative contributions to the location of the blended tropopause, rather than this being determined by a specified function of latitude. Global climatologies of tropopause height, temperature, potential temperature and zonal wind, based on European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA) ERA-Interim data, are presented for the period 1989-2007. Features of the seasonal-mean tropopause are discussed on a global scale, alongside a focus on selected monthly climatologies for the two high latitude regions and the tropical belt. The height differences between climatologies based on ERA-Interim and ERA-40 data are also presented. Key spatial and temporal features seen in earlier climatologies, based mainly on the World Meteorological Organization thermal tropopause definition, are reproduced with the new definition. Tropopause temperatures are consistent with those from earlier climatologies, despite some differences in height in the extratropics.

Carolingian culture in the North Sea world: rethinking the cultural dynamics of personal adornment in Viking age England

Boosted by a proliferation in metal-detected finds, categories of personal adornment now constitute a vital archaeological source for interpreting Viking-age cultural interaction in the North Sea region. Previous research in England has explored the potential of this metalwork in relation to the formation of ‘Anglo-Scandinavian’ identity, but without due consideration of a wider spectrum of cultural influences. This article redresses the balance by shifting attention to twenty-eight belt fittings derived from richly embellished baldrics, equestrian equipment, and waist belts manufactured on the Frankish continent during the period of Carolingian hegemony in the later eighth and ninth centuries ad. The metalwork is classified and then contextualized in order to track import mechanisms and to assess the impact of Carolingian culture on the northern peripheries of the Frankish empire. The main conclusion is that the adoption, adaptation, and strategic manipulation of Carolingian/northern Frankish identity formed an embedded component of cultural dynamics in Viking-age England, scrutiny of which sheds new light on patterns of interconnectivity linking peoples of the North Sea world.

Boundary-layer friction in midlatitude cyclone

Results from an idealized three-dimensional baroclinic life-cycle model are interpreted in a potential vorticity (PV) framework to identify the physical mechanisms by which frictional processes acting in the atmospheric boundary layer modify and reduce the baroclinic development of a midlatitude storm. Considering a life cycle where the only non-conservative process acting is boundary-layer friction, the rate of change of depth-averaged PV within the boundary layer is governed by frictional generation of PV and the flux of PV into the free troposphere. Frictional generation of PV has two contributions: Ekman generation, which is directly analogous to the well-known Ekman-pumping mechanism for barotropic vortices, and baroclinic generation, which depends on the turning of the wind in the boundary layer and low-level horizontal temperature gradients. It is usually assumed, at least implicitly, that an Ekman process of negative PV generation is the mechanism whereby friction reduces the strength and growth rates of baroclinic systems. Although there is evidence for this mechanism, it is shown that baroclinic generation of PV dominates, producing positive PV anomalies downstream of the low centre, close to developing warm and cold fronts. These PV anomalies are advected by the large-scale warm conveyor belt flow upwards and polewards, fluxed into the troposphere near the warm front, and then advected westwards relative to the system. The result is a thin band of positive PV in the lower troposphere above the surface low centre. This PV is shown to be associated with a positive static stability anomaly, which Rossby edge wave theory suggests reduces the strength of the coupling between the upper- and lower-level PV anomalies, thereby reducing the rate of baroclinic development. This mechanism, which is a result of the baroclinic dynamics in the frontal regions, is in marked contrast with simple barotropic spin-down ideas. Finally we note the implications of these frictionally generated PV anomalies for cyclone forecasting.

Vegetation and environmental dynamics in the southern Black Sea region since 18 kyr BP derived from the marine core 22-GC3

Sediments from the Black Sea, a region historically dominated by forests and steppe landscapes, are a valuable source of detailed information on the changes in regional terrestrial and aquatic environments at decadal to millennial scales. Here we present multi-proxy environmental records (pollen, dinoflagellate cysts, Ca, Ti and oxygen isotope data) from the uppermost 305 cm of the core 22-GC3 (42°13.53′N, 36°29.55′E) collected from a water depth of 838 m in the southern part of the Black Sea in 2007. The records span the last ~ 18 kyr (all ages are given in cal kyr BP). The pollen data reveal the dominance of the Artemisia-steppe in the region, suggesting rather dry/cold environments ~ 18–14.5 kyr BP. Warming/humidity increase during melt-water pulses (~ 16.1–14.5 kyr BP), indicated by δ18O records from the 22-GC3 core sediment and from the Sofular Cave stalagmite, is expressed in more negative δ13C values from the Sofular Cave, usually interpreted as the spreading of C3 plants. The records representing the interstadial complex (~ 14.5–12.9 kyr BP) show an increase in temperature and moisture, indicated by forest development, increased primary productivity and reduced surface run-off, whereas the switch from primary terrigenous to primary authigenic Ca origin occurs ~ 500 yr later. The Younger Dryas cooling is clearly demonstrated by more negative δ13C values from the Sofular Cave and a reduction of pines. The early Holocene (11.7–8.5 kyr BP) interval reveals relatively dry conditions compared to the mostly moist and warm middle Holocene (8.5–5 kyr BP), which is characterized by the establishment of the species-rich warm mixed and temperate deciduous forests in the low elevation belt, temperate deciduous beech-hornbeam forests in the middle and cool conifer forest in upper mountain belt. The border between the early and middle Holocene in the vegetation records coincides with the opening of the Mediterranean corridor at ~ 8.3 kyr BP, as indicated by a marked change in the dinocyst assemblages and in the sediment lithology. Changes in the pollen assemblages indicate a reduction in forest cover after ~ 5 kyr BP, which was likely caused by increased anthropogenic pressure on the regional vegetation.

(Non-)ergodicity of a degenerate diffusion modeling the fiber lay down process

We analyze the large time behavior of a stochastic model for the lay down of fibers on a moving conveyor belt in the production process of nonwovens. It is shown that under weak conditions this degenerate diffusion process has a unique invariant distribution and is even geometrically ergodic. This generalizes results from previous works [M. Grothaus and A. Klar, SIAM J. Math. Anal., 40 (2008), pp. 968–983; J. Dolbeault et al., arXiv:1201.2156] concerning the case of a stationary conveyor belt, in which the situation of a moving conveyor belt has been left open.

Indian summer monsoon variations could have affected the early Holocene woodland expansion in the Near East

Postglacial expansion of deciduous oak woodlands of the Zagros—Anti-Taurus Mountains, a major biome of the Near East, was delayed until the middle Holocene at ~6300 cal. yr BP. The current hypotheses explain this delay as a consequence of a regional aridity during the early Holocene, slow migration rates of forest trees, and/or a long history of land use and agro-pastoralism in this region. In the present paper, support is given to a hypothesis that suggests different precipitation seasonalities during the early Holocene compared with the late Holocene. The oak species of the Zagros—Anti-Taurus Mts, particularly Quercus brantii Lindl., are strongly dependent on spring precipitation for regeneration and are sensitive to a long dry season. Detailed analysis of modern atmospheric circulation patterns in SW Asia during the late spring suggests that the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) intensification can modify the amount of late spring and/or early summer rainfall in western/northwestern Iran and eastern Anatolia, which could in turn have controlled the development of the Zagros—Anti-Taurus deciduous oak woodlands. During the early Holocene, the northwestward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) could have displaced the subtropical anticyclonic belt or associated high pressure ridges to the northwest. The latter could, in turn, have prevented the southeastward penetration of low pressure systems originating from the North Atlantic and Black Sea regions. Such atmospheric configuration could have reduced or eliminated the spring precipitation creating a typical Mediterranean continental climate characterized by winter-dominated precipitation. This scenario highlights the complexity of biome response to climate system interactions in transitional climatic and biogeographical regions.

The expression of the end-Cenomanian oceanic anoxic event (OAE 2) in the Helvetic Alps

Upper Cenomanian pelagic sediments from the northern Alpine Helvetic fold-and-thrust belt (northern Tethyan margin) coeval with Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE) 2 are characterized by the temporal persistence of micrite sedimentation and lack of organic carbon-rich layers. We studied an expanded section in the Chrummflueschlucht (east of Euthal, Switzerland), which encompasses the OAE 2 time interval. In order to identify the paleoceanographic and paleoenvironmental conditions during OAE 2 in this part of the northern Tethyan margin, and more specifically to trace eventual changes in nutrient levels and oxic conditions, we investigated the biostratigraphy (planktonic foraminifera), the bulk-rock mineralogy, and measured stable carbon- and oxygen-isotopes, total phosphorus (P) and redox-sensitive trace-element (RSTE) contents. We were able to determine – with some remaining uncertainties – the different planktonic foraminiferal biozones characteristic of the Cenomanian–Turonian boundary interval (Rotalipora cushmani, Whiteinella archaeocretacea and Helvetoglobotruncana helvetica zones). In the lower part of the section (R. cushmani total range zone), the bulk-rock δ13C record shows a long-term increase. Within sediments attributed to the W. archaeocretacea partial range zone, δ13C values reach a maximum of 3.3‰ (peak “a”). In the following the values decrease and increase again to arrive at a plateau with high δ13C values of around 3.1‰, which ends with a peak of 3.3‰ (peak “c”). At the top of the section, in sediments belonging to the H. helvetica total range zone, δ13C values decrease to post-OAE values of around 2.2‰. The last occurrence of R. cushmani is observed just above the positive δ13C shift characterizing OAE 2. P contents display small variations along the section with a long-term decreasing trend towards the top. Before the OAE 2 interval, P values show higher values and relatively good covariation with detrital input, indicating higher nutrient input before OAE 2. In sediments corresponding to the onset of the δ13C positive excursion, P content is marked by a sharp peak probably linked to a slowdown in sedimentation rates and/or the presence of a small hiatus, as is shown by the presence of glauconite and phosphatic grains. In the interval corresponding to OAE 2, P values remain low and increase slightly at the end of the positive shift in the δ13C record (in the H. helvetica total range zone). The average contents of RSTE (U, V, As, Co, Mo and Mn) remain low throughout the section and appreciable RSTE enrichments have not been observed for the sedimentary interval corresponding to OAE 2. No correlation is observed with stratigraphic trends in RSTE contents in organic-rich deeper-water sections. The presence of double-keeled planktonic foraminifera species during most of the Cenomanian/Turonian boundary event is another evidence of relatively well-oxygenated conditions in this part of the northern Tethyan outer shelf. Our results show that the Chrummflueschlucht section corresponds to one of the most complete section for the Cenomanian–Turonian boundary interval known from the Helvetic realm even if a small hiatus may be present at the onset of the δ13C record (peak “a”). The evolution of P contents suggests an increase in input of this nutritive element at the onset of OAE2. However, the trends in RSTE contents and the planktonic foraminifera assemblages show that the Helvetic realm has not been affected by strongly depleted oxygen conditions during OAE 2.

Diabatic processes modifying potential vorticity in a North Atlantic cyclone

Potential vorticity (PV) succinctly describes the evolution of large-scale atmospheric flow because of its material conservation and invertibility properties. However, diabatic processes in extratropical cyclones can modify PV and influence both mesoscale weather and the evolution of the synoptic-scale wave pattern. In this investigation, modification of PV by diabatic processes is diagnosed in a Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) simulation of a North Atlantic cyclone using a set of PV tracers. The structure of diabatic PV within the extratropical cyclone is investigated and linked to the processes responsible for it. On the mesoscale, a tripole of diabatic PV is generated across the tropopause fold extending down to the cold front. The structure results from a dipole in heating across the frontal interface due to condensation in the warm conveyor belt flanking the upper side of the fold and evaporation of precipitation in the dry intrusion and below. On isentropic surfaces intersecting the tropopause, positive diabatic PV is generated on the stratospheric side, while negative diabatic PV is generated on the tropospheric side. The stratospheric diabatic PV is generated primarily by long-wave cooling which peaks at the tropopause itself due to the sharp gradient in humidity there. The tropospheric diabatic PV originates locally from the long-wave radiation and non-locally by advection out of the top of heating associated with the large-scale cloud, convection and boundary layer schemes. In most locations there is no diabatic modification of PV at the tropopause itself but diabatic PV anomalies would influence the tropopause indirectly through the winds they induce and subsequent advection. The consequences of this diabatic PV dipole for the evolution of synoptic-scale wave patterns are discussed.

Adoption of green revolution services and poverty reduction in Ghana

In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) the technological advances of the Green Revolution (GR) have not been very successful. However, the efforts being made to re-introduce the revolution call for more socio-economic research into the adoption and the effects of the new technologies. The paper discusses an investigation on the effects of GR technology adoption on poverty among households in Ghana. Maximum likelihood estimation of a poverty model within the framework of Heckman's two stage method of correcting for sample selection was employed. Technology adoption was found to have positive effects in reducing poverty. Other factors that reduce poverty include education, credit, durable assets, living in the forest belt and in the south of the country. Technology adoption itself was also facilitated by education, credit, non-farm income and household labour supply as well as living in urban centres. Inarguably, technology adoption can be taken seriously by increasing the levels of complementary inputs such as credit, extension services and infrastructure. Above all, the fundamental problems of illiteracy, inequality and lack of effective markets must be addressed through increasing the levels of formal and non-formal education, equitable distribution of the 'national cake' and a more pragmatic management of the ongoing Structural Adjustment Programme.

Simulation of hurricane-type vortices in a general circulation model

A study of intense hurricane-type vortices in the ECMWF operational model is reported. These vortices develop around day 4 in the forecast and occur in the tropical belt in areas and at times where intense tropical cyclones normally occur. The frequency resembles that observed over most tropical regions with a pronounced maximum in the western North Pacific. The life time of the vortices and their 3-dimensional structure agree in some fundamental way with observations although, because of the resolution, the systems are less intense than the observed ones. The general large-scale conditions for active and inactive cyclone periods are discussed. The model cyclones are sensitive to the sea-surface temperature and do not develop with sea surface temperatures lower than 28–29°C. The dynamical conditions favouring cyclone development are characterized by intense large-scale divergence in the upper troposphere. Cyclogenesis appears to take place when these conditions are found outside the equatorial zone and over oceans where the water is sufficiently warm.

Climate predictability experiments with a general circulation model

The atmospheric response to the evolution of the global sea surface temperatures from 1979 to 1992 is studied using the Max-Planck-Institut 19 level atmospheric general circulation model, ECHAM3 at T 42 resolution. Five separate 14-year integrations are performed and results are presented for each individual realization and for the ensemble-averaged response. The results are compared to a 30-year control integration using a climate monthly mean state of the sea surface temperatures and to analysis data. It is found that the ECHAM3 model, by and large, does reproduce the observed response pattern to El Nin˜o and La Nin˜a. During the El Nin˜ o events, the subtropical jet streams in both hemispheres are intensified and displaced equatorward, and there is a tendency towards weak upper easterlies over the equator. The Southern Oscillation is a very stable feature of the integrations and is accurately reproduced in all experiments. The inter-annual variability at middle- and high-latitudes, on the other hand, is strongly dominated by chaotic dynamics, and the tropical SST forcing only modulates the atmospheric circulation. The potential predictability of the model is investigated for six different regions. Signal to noise ratio is large in most parts of the tropical belt, of medium strength in the western hemisphere and generally small over the European area. The ENSO signal is most pronounced during the boreal spring. A particularly strong signal in the precipitation field in the extratropics during spring can be found over the southern United States. Western Canada is normally warmer during the warm ENSO phase, while northern Europe is warmer than normal during the ENSO cold phase. The reason is advection of warm air due to a more intense Pacific low than normal during the warm ENSO phase and a more intense Icelandic low than normal during the cold ENSO phase, respectively.

Solar origin of heliospheric magnetic field inversions: evidence for coronal loop opening within pseudostreamers

The orientation of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) in near‒Earth space is generally a good indicator of the polarity of HMF foot points at the photosphere. There are times, however, when the HMF folds back on itself (is inverted), as indicated by suprathermal electrons locally moving sunward, even though they must ultimately be carrying the heat flux away from the Sun. Analysis of the near‒Earth solar wind during the period 1998–2011 reveals that inverted HMF is present approximately 5.5% of the time and is generally associated with slow, dense solar wind and relatively weak HMF intensity. Inverted HMF is mapped to the coronal source surface, where a new method is used to estimate coronal structure from the potential‒field source‒surface model. We find a strong association with bipolar streamers containing the heliospheric current sheet, as expected, but also with unipolar or pseudostreamers, which contain no current sheet. Because large‒scale inverted HMF is a widely accepted signature of interchange reconnection at the Sun, this finding provides strong evidence for models of the slow solar wind which involve coronal loop opening by reconnection within pseudostreamer belts as well as the bipolar streamer belt. Occurrence rates of bipolar‒ and pseudostreamers suggest that they are equally likely to result in inverted HMF and, therefore, presumably undergo interchange reconnection at approximately the same rate. Given the different magnetic topologies involved, this suggests the rate of reconnection is set externally, possibly by the differential rotation rate which governs the circulation of open solar flux.