Ocean heat uptake and its consequences for the magnitude of sea level rise and climate change

Under increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, ocean heat uptake moderates the rate of climate change, and thermal expansion makes a substantial contribution to sea level rise. In this paper we quantify the differences in projections among atmosphere-ocean general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in terms of transient climate response, ocean heat uptake efficiency and expansion efficiency of heat. The CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles have statistically indistinguishable distributions in these parameters. The ocean heat uptake efficiency varies by a factor of two across the models, explaining about 50% of the spread in ocean heat uptake in CMIP5 models with CO2 increasing at 1%/year. It correlates with the ocean global-mean vertical profiles both of temperature and of temperature change, and comparison with observations suggests the models may overestimate ocean heat uptake and underestimate surface warming, because their stratification is too weak. The models agree on the location of maxima of shallow ocean heat uptake (above 700 m) in the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic, and on deep ocean heat uptake (below 2000 m) in areas of the Southern Ocean, in some places amounting to 40% of the top-to-bottom integral in the CMIP3 SRES A1B scenario. The Southern Ocean dominates global ocean heat uptake; consequently the eddy-induced thickness diffusivity parameter, which is particularly influential in the Southern Ocean, correlates with the ocean heat uptake efficiency. The thermal expansion produced by ocean heat uptake is 0.12 m YJ−1, with an uncertainty of about 10% (1 YJ = 1024 J).

Examination of wind storms over Central Europe with respect to circulation weather types and NAO phases

The occurrence of wind storms in Central Europe is investigated with respect to large-scale atmospheric flow and local wind speeds in the investigation area. Two different methods of storm identification are applied for Central Europe as the target region: one based on characteristics of large-scale flow (circulation weather types, CWT) and the other on the occurrence of extreme wind speeds. The identified events are examined with respect to the NAO phases and CWTs under which they occur. Pressure patterns, wind speeds and cyclone tracks are investigated for storms assigned to different CWTs. Investigations are based on ERA40 reanalysis data. It is shown that about 80% of the storm days in Central Europe are connected with westerly flow and that Central European storm events primarily occur during a moderately positive NAO phase, while strongly positive NAO phases (6.4% of all days) account for more than 20% of the storms. A storm occurs over Central Europe during about 10% of the days with a strong positive NAO index. The most frequent pathway of cyclone systems associated with storms over Central Europe leads from the North Atlantic over the British Isles, North Sea and southern Scandinavia into the Baltic Sea. The mean intensity of the systems typically reaches its maximum near the British Isles. Differences between the characteristics for storms identified from the CWT identification procedure (gale days, based on MSLP fields) and those from extreme winds at Central European grid points are small, even though only 70% of the storm days agree. While most storms occur during westerly flow situations, specific characteristics of storms during the other CWTs are also considered. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Housing or property? The dynamics of housing policy and property principles in the right to buy

This paper examines the interplay and tension between housing law and policy and property law, in the specific context of the right to buy (RTB). It focuses on funding arrangements between the RTB tenant and another party. It first examines how courts determine the parties' respective entitlements in the home, highlighting the difficulty of categorising, under traditional property law principles, a contribution in the form of the statutory discount conferred on the RTB tenant. Secondly, it considers possible exploitation of the RTB scheme, both at the macro level of exploitation of the policy underpinning the legislation and, at the micro level, of exploitation of the tenant. The measures contained in the Housing Act 2004 intended to curb exploitation of the RTB are analysed to determine what can be considered to be legitimate and illegitimate uses of the scheme. It is argued that, despite the government's implicit approval, certain funding arrangements by non-resident relatives fail to give effect to the spirit of the scheme.

The effect of macro and micro-nutrient fortification of biscuits on their sensory properties and on hedonic liking of older people

BACKGROUND: Under-nutrition in older adults is widespread. Oral nutritional supplement beverages (ONS) are prescribed, yet consumption by older people is often insufficient. A variety of supplement formats may improve nutrient intake. This study developed protein and micro-nutrient fortified biscuits and evaluated their sensory attributes and liking by older people. Two micro-nutrient strategies were taken, to match typical ONS and to customise to the needs of older people. RESULTS: Oat biscuits and gluten-free biscuits developed contained over 12% protein and over 460 kcal 100 g-1 . Two small (40 g) biscuits developed to match ONS provided approximately 40% of an ONS portion of micro-nutrients and 60% of macro-nutrients; however, the portion size was considered realistic whereas the average ONS portion (200 mL) is excessive. Biscuits developed to the needs of older adults provided, on average, 18% of the reference nutrient intake of targeted micro-nutrients. Sensory characteristics were similar between biscuits with and without micro-nutrient fortification, leading to no differences in liking. Fortified oat biscuits were less liked than commercial oat biscuits, partly attributed to flavour imparted by whey protein fortification. CONCLUSION: Macro- and micro-nutrient fortification of biscuits could provide an alternative fortified snack to help alleviate malnutrition in older adults.

Milk: white elixir or white poison? An examination of the associations between dairy consumption and disease in human subjects

Implications Overall, milk consumption provides health benefits to all age groups. Effects of cheese, butter, and fat-reduced and saturated fat-reduced milk and dairy products are less clear and require more research. Public health nutrition policy related to milk consumption should be based on the evidence presented and not solely on the believed negative effects of dietary fat. Milk is not a white elixir since no study has reported eternal youth from drinking it, but there is certainly no evidence that milk is a white poison!

Fish oil supplementation alters numbers of circulating endothelial progenitor cells and micro particles independent of eNOS genotype

Background Emerging cellular markers of endothelial damage and repair include endothelial microparticles (EMPs) and endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs) respectively. Effects of long chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC n-3 PUFA) and influence of genetic background on these markers are not known. Objective This study investigated the effects of fish oil supplementation on both classical and novel markers of endothelial function in subjects prospectively genotyped for the Asp298 eNOS polymorphism and at moderate risk of CVD. Design 84 subjects with moderate risk of CVD (n=40 GG and n=44 GT/TT) completed a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 8-week cross-over trial of fish oil supplementation providing 1.5 g/d LC n-3 PUFA. Effects of genotype and fish oil supplementation on the blood lipid profile, inflammatory markers, vascular function (EndoPAT) and numbers of circulating EPCs and EMP (flow cytometry) were assessed. Results There was no significant effect of fish oil supplementation on blood pressure, plasma lipids or plasma glucose, although there was a trend (P = 0.069) towards a decrease in plasma TG concentration after FO supplementation compared to placebo. GT/TT subjects tended to have higher levels of total cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol, but vascular function was not affected by either treatment or eNOS genotype. Biochemical markers of endothelial function were also unaffected by treatment and eNOS genotype. In contrast, there was a significant effect of fish oil supplementation on cellular markers of endothelial function. Fish oil supplementation increased numbers of EPCs and reduced numbers of EMPs relative to the placebo, potentially favouring maintenance of endothelial integrity. There was no influence of genotype for any of the cellular markers of endothelial function, indicating that the effects of fish oil supplementation were independent of eNOS genotype. Conclusions Emerging cellular markers of endothelial damage, integrity and repair appear to be sensitive to potentially beneficial modification by dietary n-3 PUFA.

Institutions, unionization and voice: the relative impact of context and actors on firm level practice

Trade unions provide a voice in the way firms are run, an input into reward systems and increased security of employment. But these vary with national context. Using transnational survey evidence, this article explores the relative impact of setting, and of unions and collective bargaining, on these issues. It is found that, irrespective of context, organizations are significantly more likely to make use of compulsory redundancies in the absence of unions and collective bargaining. However, in other areas, the impact of unions appeared less pronounced than that of the wider context. The article explores the reasons behind this, and the broader policy implications thereof.

Isotopic examination of links between diet, social differentiation and DISH at the post-medieval Carmelite Friary of Aalst, Belgium

Stable isotope ratios (δ13C and δ15N) were measured in human burials from the post-medieval (16th–18th c. AD) Carmelite friary burial grounds at Aalst, a town in Flanders, Belgium. Dietary patterns of 39 adult individuals were analyzed, from a mixed monastic and lay population buried in three different locations, reflecting groups with differing social status. The data show significant variation in the consumption of perhaps meat, but certainly also marine protein between females and males. This result represents a remarkable continuity with medieval dietary patterns, suggesting that the social and economic changes of the early modern period had a limited effect on everyday life. When both sexes were examined together, individuals buried in the cloister garth consumed significantly less marine protein compared to people buried in the church, likely reflecting social stratification. No statistical differences were observed between isotopic values from the church and the cloister alley, suggesting a similarly diverse diet of the monastic part of the buried population and that of the richer lay population. Finally, the hypothesis that diffuse idiopathic skeletal hyperostosis (DISH) is linked to a diet rich in animal protein was tested. No systematic or statistically significant differences between pathological and non-pathological bones from the same individuals affected with DISH were observed, and no statistical differences were found between individuals with DISH and individuals without DISH

Consent and the use of force: an examination of ‘intervention by invitation’ as a basis for US drone strikes in Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen

Drone strikes are becoming a key feature of the United States’ global military response to nonstate actors, and it has been widely adduced that these strikes have been carried out with the consent of the host states in which such non-state actors reside. This article examines the degree to which assertions of consent (or ‘intervention by invitation’), provided as a justification for drone strikes by the United States in Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia, can be said to accord with international law. First the article provides a broad sketch of the presence of consent in international law. It then analyses in detail the individual elements of consent as provided by Article 20 of the International Law Commission Draft Articles of State Responsibility. These require that consent should be ‘valid’, given by the legitimate government and expressed by an official empowered to do so. These elements will be dealt with individually, and each in turn will be applied to the cases of Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia. Finally, the article will examine the breadth of the exculpatory power of consent, and the extent to which it can preclude the wrongfulness of acts carried out in contravention of international law other than the prohibition of the use of force under Article 2(4) of the Charter of the United Nations.

Creativity, entrepreneurship and economic development: city-level evidence on creativity spillover of entrepreneurship

We examine the black box of creativity, entrepreneurship and economic development by asking about the mechanisms through which creativity can influence economic development in cities. We propose that, like the knowledge spillover theory of entrepreneurship, creativity spillovers occur and can be slowed by a creativity filter. We examine how creativity and entrepreneurship, and creativity and a melting pot environment, interact to influence urban economic development. Using data on 187 cities in 15 European countries for the period 1999–2009, we advance the extant literature by providing evidence on the existence and dynamics of a creativity filter.

Analysis of the genetic diversity and structure across a wide range of germplasm reveals prominent gene flow in apple at the European level

Abstract Background: The amount and structure of genetic diversity in dessert apple germplasm conserved at a European level is mostly unknown, since all diversity studies conducted in Europe until now have been performed on regional or national collections. Here, we applied a common set of 16 SSR markers to genotype more than 2,400 accessions across 14 collections representing three broad European geographic regions (North+East, West and South) with the aim to analyze the extent, distribution and structure of variation in the apple genetic resources in Europe. Results: A Bayesian model-based clustering approach showed that diversity was organized in three groups, although these were only moderately differentiated (FST=0.031). A nested Bayesian clustering approach allowed identification of subgroups which revealed internal patterns of substructure within the groups, allowing a finer delineation of the variation into eight subgroups (FST=0.044). The first level of stratification revealed an asymmetric division of the germplasm among the three groups, and a clear association was found with the geographical regions of origin of the cultivars. The substructure revealed clear partitioning of genetic groups among countries, but also interesting associations between subgroups and breeding purposes of recent cultivars or particular usage such as cider production. Additional parentage analyses allowed us to identify both putative parents of more than 40 old and/or local cultivars giving interesting insights in the pedigree of some emblematic cultivars. Conclusions: The variation found at group and sub-group levels may reflect a combination of historical processes of migration/selection and adaptive factors to diverse agricultural environments that, together with genetic drift, have resulted in extensive genetic variation but limited population structure. The European dessert apple germplasm represents an important source of genetic diversity with a strong historical and patrimonial value. The present work thus constitutes a decisive step in the field of conservation genetics. Moreover, the obtained data can be used for defining a European apple core collection useful for further identification of genomic regions associated with commercially important horticultural traits in apple through genome-wide association studies.