Interactions between mass balance, atmospheric circulation, and recent climate change on the Djankuat Glacier, Caucasus Mountains, Russia

This paper reports recent changes in the mass balance record from the Djankuat Glacier, central greater Caucasus, Russia, and investigates possible relationships between the components of mass balance, local climate, and distant atmospheric forcing. The results clearly show that a strong warming signal has emerged in the central greater Caucasus, particularly since the 1993/1994 mass balance year, and this has led to a significant increase in the summer ablation of Djankuat. At the same time, there has been no compensating consistent increase in winter precipitation and accumulation leading to the strong net loss of mass and increase in glacier runoff. Interannual variability in ablation and accumulation is partly associated with certain major patterns of Northern Hemisphere climatic variability. The positive phase of the North Pacific (NP) teleconnection pattern forces negative geopotential height and temperature anomalies over the Caucasus in summer and results in reduced summer melt, such as in the early 1990s, when positive NP extremes resulted in a temporary decline in ablation rates. The positive phase of the NP is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation, and it is possible that a teleconnection between the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and summer air temperatures in the Caucasus is bridged through the NP pattern. More recently, the NP pattern was predominantly negative, and this distant moderating forcing on summer ablation in the Caucasus was absent. Statistically significant correlations are observed between accumulation and the Scandinavian (SCA) teleconnection pattern. The frequent occurrence of the positive SCA phase at the beginning of accumulation season results in lower than average snowfall and reduced accumulation. The relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation, and accumulation is weak, although positive precipitation anomalies in the winter months are associated with the negative phase of the NAO. A stronger positive correlation is observed between accumulation on Djankuat and geopotential height over the Bay of Biscay unrelated to the established modes of the Northern Hemisphere climatic variability. These results imply that the mass balance of Djankuat is sensitive to the natural variability in the climate system. Distant forcing, however, explains only 16% of the variance in the ablation record and cannot fully explain the recent increase in ablation and negative mass balance.

Effect of acyl chain length on transfection efficiency and toxicity of polyethylenimine

Polyethylenimine (PEI) is an efficient nonviral gene delivery vector because of its high buffering capacity and DNA condensation ability. In our study, the amino groups on the polymeric backbone were acylated using acetic or propionic anhydride to alter the protonation behaviour and the hydrophilic/hydrophobic balance of the polymer. The concentration of acylated primary amines was determined using trinitrobenzene sulphonic acid assay. Results showed that our modified polymers had lower buffering capacities in solutions compared to PEI. The polymers were complexed with plasmid encoding enhanced green fluorescent protein at three different ratios (1:1, 1:2 and 1:10 w/w DNA to polymer) to form polyplexes and their toxicities and transfection efficiencies were evaluated in HEK 293 cells. Acylation reduced the number of primary amines on the polymer and the surface charge, improving haemocompatibility and reducing cytotoxicity. The reduction in the concentration of amino groups helped to optimise DNA compaction and facilitated polyplex dissociation in the cell, which increased transfection efficiency of the modified polymers compared to the parent polymer. Polymers with buffering capacities greater than 50% and less than 80% relative to PEI, showed higher transfection efficiencies than PEI. The propionic anhydride modified polymers had appropriate interactions with DNA which provided both DNA compaction and polyplex dissociation. These systems interacted better with the cell membrane because of their slightly higher lipophilicity and formed polyplexes which were less cytotoxic than polyplexes of acetic anhydride modified polymers. Among the vectors tested, 1:0.3 mol/mol PEI:propionic anhydride in a 1:2 w/w DNA:polymer composition provided the best transfection system with improved transfection efficiency and reduced cytotoxicity.

Shock persistence in a dual economy model of India

This article examines shock persistence in agricultural and industrial output in India. Drawing on the dual economy literature, the linkages between the sectors through the terms of trade are emphasised. However different dual economy models make differing assumptions regarding the categorisation of variables as being either endogenous or exogenous and this distinction is crucial in explaining the pattern of shock persistence. Using annual data for 1955-95, our results show that shocks to both output series are permanent while those to the terms of trade are transient.

Determination of the optical properties of plastic films used as cladding materials in novel energy efficient greenhouses

Greenhouse cladding materials are a major component in the design of energy efficient greenhouses. The optical properties of cladding materials determine a major part of the overall performance of a greenhouse both in terms of the energy balance of the greenhouse and on crop behavior. Various film plastic greenhouse-cladding materials were measured under laboratory conditions using a spectroradiometer equipped with an integrating sphere. Films were measured over a range of angles of incidence and the effect of increasing distance between double films was also measured. PAR transmission remained nearly constant for angles of incidence increased up to 30 degrees but fell rapidly thereafter as the angles of incidence increased up to 90 degrees. Increasing distance between double films did not significantly affect PAR transmission in all films examined. These results are discussed in relation to the design criteria for an energy efficient greenhouse.

Phylloxera and the grapevine: a sense of common purpose?

The purpose of life is its continuation: survival is the reason things live. Here we explore this 'basic' of biology, by reference to the extraordinary life-cycle of the aphid-like pest phylloxera, and the complexity of its relationship with its host the grapevine. The effort and ingenuity that phylloxera employs to continue itself leads to a doubt that survival alone is sufficient reason. It has frequently been suggested that the reduction of life to a catalogue of facts (by science) creates this doubt, because it robs existence of its essence (which is something other than its mechanics). The part that science is said to steal is what Robert Pirsig calls Quality-the harmonious balance of things. Pirsig seems to imply that this is something inherent in things-and independent from us. A more mundane explanation is that the difference between facts and the complete reality is us-the tendency of mind to connect freely between different kinds of information. This possibility is briefly illustrated here by a myth based on the facts of phylloxera.

Control of human immunodeficiency virus type-1 protease activity in insect cells expressing Gag-Pol rescues assembly of immature but not mature virus-like particles

Expression of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) Gag protein in insect cells using baculovirus vectors leads to the abundant production of virus-like particles (VLPs) that represent the immature form of the virus. When Gag-Pol is included, however, VLP production is abolished, a result attributed to premature protease activation degrading the intracellular pool of Gag precursor before particle assembly can occur. As large-scale synthesis of mature noninfectious VLPs would be useful, we have sought to control HIV protease activity in insect cells to give a balance of Gag and Gag-Pol that is compatible with mature particle formation. We show here that intermediate levels of protease activity in insect cells can be attained through site-directed mutagenesis of the protease and through antiprotease drug treatment. However, despite Gag cleavage patterns that mimicked those seen in mammalian cells, VLP synthesis exhibited an essentially all-or-none response in which VLP synthesis occurred but was immature or failed completely. Our data are consistent with a requirement for specific cellular factors in addition to the correct ratio of Gag and Gag-Pol for assembly of mature retrovirus particles in heterologous cell types. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

The impact of multiskilling on UK construction manpower

The overall significance of the construction and building services sector internationally cannot be overemphasised. In the UK, the industry currently accounts for 10% gross domestic product (GDP) and employs 2 million people, which is more than 1 in 14 of the total workforce. However, regardless of its output (approximately £65 billion annually) there has been a steady decline in the number of trade entrants into the construction and building services sector. Consequently, the available ‘pool of labour’ is inadequately resourced; productivity is low; the existing labour force is overstressed; there is an increase in site deaths; and a long-term labour shortage is envisaged. Today, the evidence seems to suggest that multiskilling is a tentative redress for ameliorating the skills crisis in the construction and building sectors. A 43-year time-series of data on 23 manpower attributes was evaluated as part of this investigation. The developed linear regression models show that the concept of multiskilling obeys the ‘law of diminishing returns'. That is, a weak relation was found between construction output and a three or more combination of manpower attributes. An optimisation model is prescribed for traditional trades.

UK construction orders and output: A comparison of government and commercially available data 1995-2001

Because of the importance and potential usefulness of construction market statistics to firms and government, consistency between different sources of data is examined with a view to building a predictive model of construction output using construction data alone. However, a comparison of Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) and Office for National Statistics (ONS) series shows that the correlation coefcient (used as a measure of consistency) of the DTI output and DTI orders data and the correlation coefficient of the DTI output and ONS output data are low. It is not possible to derive a predictive model of DTI output based on DTI orders data alone. The question arises whether or not an alternative independent source of data may be used to predict DTI output data. Independent data produced by Emap Glenigan (EG), based on planning applications, potentially offers such a source of information. The EG data records the value of planning applications and their planned start and finish dates. However, as this data is ex ante and is not correlated with DTI output it is not possible to use this data to describe the volume of actual construction output. Nor is it possible to use the EG planning data to predict DTI construc-tion orders data. Further consideration of the issues raised reveal that it is not practically possible to develop a consistent predictive model of construction output using construction statistics gathered at different stages in the development process.

Kinetic energy analysis of the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to CO2-forced climate change

Atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) predict a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in response to anthropogenic forcing of climate, but there is a large model uncertainty in the magnitude of the predicted change. The weakening of the AMOC is generally understood to be the result of increased buoyancy input to the north Atlantic in a warmer climate, leading to reduced convection and deep water formation. Consistent with this idea, model analyses have shown empirical relationships between the AMOC and the meridional density gradient, but this link is not direct because the large-scale ocean circulation is essentially geostrophic, making currents and pressure gradients orthogonal. Analysis of the budget of kinetic energy (KE) instead of momentum has the advantage of excluding the dominant geostrophic balance. Diagnosis of the KE balance of the HadCM3 AOGCM and its low-resolution version FAMOUS shows that KE is supplied to the ocean by the wind and dissipated by viscous forces in the global mean of the steady-state control climate, and the circulation does work against the pressure-gradient force, mainly in the Southern Ocean. In the Atlantic Ocean, however, the pressure-gradient force does work on the circulation, especially in the high-latitude regions of deep water formation. During CO2-forced climate change, we demonstrate a very good temporal correlation between the AMOC strength and the rate of KE generation by the pressure-gradient force in 50–70°N of the Atlantic Ocean in each of nine contemporary AOGCMs, supporting a buoyancy-driven interpretation of AMOC changes. To account for this, we describe a conceptual model, which offers an explanation of why AOGCMs with stronger overturning in the control climate tend to have a larger weakening under CO2 increase.

The influence of dietary fatty acid composition on N-ethyl-Nnitrosourea-induced mammary tumour incidence in the rat and on the composition of inositol- and ethanolamine-phospholipids of normal and tumour mammary tissue

This study has investigated the influence of dietary fatty acid composition on mammary tumour incidence in N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea (ENU)-treated rats and has compared the susceptibility to dietary fatty acid modification of the membrane phospholipids phosphatidyliuositol (PI) and phosphatidylethanolamine (PE) from normal and tumour tissue of rat mammary gland. The incidence of mammary tumours was significantly lower in fish oil- (29%), compared with olive oil- (75%; P < 0.04) but not maize oil- (63%; P < 0.1) fed animals. No differences in PI fatty acid composition were found in normal or tumour tissue between rats fed on maize oil, olive oil or fish oil in diets from weaning. When normal and tumour tissue PI fatty acids were compared, significantly higher amounts of stearic acid (18:O) were found in tumour than normal tissue in rats given olive oil (P < 0.05). A similar trend was found in animals fed on maize oil, although differences between normal and tumour tissue did not reach a level of statistical significance (P < 0.1). In mammary PE, maize oil-fed control animals had significantly higher levels of linoleic acid (18:2n-6) than either olive oil- or fish oil-fed animals (P < 0.05, both cases) and levels of arachidonic acid were also higher in maize oil- compared with fish oil-fed animals (P < 0.05). In tumourbearing animals no differences in PE fatty acid composition were found between the three dietary groups. When normal and tumour tissue PE fatty acids were compared, significantly lower amounts of liuoleic acid (18:2n-6; P < 0.01) and significantly greater amounts of arachidonic acid (20:4n-6; P < 0.05) were found in tumour than normal tissue of rats fed on maize oil. The present study shows that the fatty acid composition of PI from both normal and tumour tissue of the mammary gland is resistant to dietary fatty acid modification. The PE fraction is more susceptible to dietary modification and in this fraction there is evidence of increased conversion of linoleic acid to arachidonic acid in tumour compared with normal tissue. Lower tumour incidence rates in rats given fish oils may in part be due to alteration in prostanoid metabolism secondary to displacement of arachidonic acid by eicosapentaenoic acid, but PE rather than PI would appear to be the most likely locus for diet-induced alteration in prostanoid synthesis in this tissue. Effects of dietary fatty acids other than on the balance of n-6 and n-3 fatty acids, and on prostanoid metabolism, should also be considered. The significance of increased stearic acid content of PI in tumours of olive oil-fed animals and the possible influence of dietary fatty acids on the capacity for stearic acid accumulation requires further study.

Kinetic energy analysis of the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to CO2-forced climate change

Atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) predict a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in response to anthropogenic forcing of climate, but there is a large model uncertainty in the magnitude of the predicted change. The weakening of the AMOC is generally understood to be the result of increased buoyancy input to the north Atlantic in a warmer climate, leading to reduced convection and deep water formation. Consistent with this idea, model analyses have shown empirical relationships between the AMOC and the meridional density gradient, but this link is not direct because the large-scale ocean circulation is essentially geostrophic, making currents and pressure gradients orthogonal. Analysis of the budget of kinetic energy (KE) instead of momentum has the advantage of excluding the dominant geostrophic balance. Diagnosis of the KE balance of the HadCM3 AOGCM and its low-resolution version FAMOUS shows that KE is supplied to the ocean by the wind and dissipated by viscous forces in the global mean of the steady-state control climate, and the circulation does work against the pressure-gradient force, mainly in the Southern Ocean. In the Atlantic Ocean, however, the pressure-gradient force does work on the circulation, especially in the high-latitude regions of deep water formation. During CO2-forced climate change, we demonstrate a very good temporal correlation between the AMOC strength and the rate of KE generation by the pressure-gradient force in 50–70°N of the Atlantic Ocean in each of nine contemporary AOGCMs, supporting a buoyancy-driven interpretation of AMOC changes. To account for this, we describe a conceptual model, which offers an explanation of why AOGCMs with stronger overturning in the control climate tend to have a larger weakening under CO2 increase

Access to the countryside of England and Wales: public/private partnership or the privatisation of public rights?

This paper examines the evolution of public rights of access to private land in England and Wales. Since the Eighteenth Century the administration and protection of these rights has been though a form of public/private partnership in which the judiciary, while maintaining the dominance of private property, have safeguarded de facto public access by refusing consistently to punish simple trespass. While this situation has been modified, principally by post-World War II legislation, to allow for some formalisation of access arrangements and consequent compensation to landowners in areas of high recreational pressure and low legal accessibility, recent policy initiatives suggest that the balance of the partnership has now shifted in favour of landowners. In particular, the new access payment schemes, developed by the UK Government in response to the European Commission's Agri-Environment Regulations, locate the landowner as the beneficiary of the partnership, financed by tax revenue and justified on the spurious basis of improved 'access provision'. As such the state, as the former upholder of citizen rights, now assumes the duplicitous position of underwriting private property ownership through the commodification of access, while proclaiming a significant improvement in citizens' access rights.

Partnership in the provision of recreational access: the reconstruction of the public interest in private land in England and Wales

This paper examines the evolution of public rights of access to private land in England and Wales. Since the Eighteenth Century the administration and protection of these rights has been though a form of public/private partnership in which the judiciary, while maintaining the dominance of private property, have safeguarded de facto public access by refusing consistently to punish simple trespass. While this situation has been modified, principally by post-World War II legislation, to allow for some formalisation of access arrangements and consequent compensation to landowners in areas of high recreational pressure and low legal accessibility, recent policy initiatives suggest that the balance of the partnership has now shifted in favour of landowners. In particular, the new access payment schemes, developed by the UK Government in response to the European Commission's Agri-Environment Regulations, identify the landowner as the beneficiary of the partnership, financed by tax revenue and justified on the spurious basis of improved 'access provision'. As such the State, as the former upholder of citizen rights, now assumes the duplicitous position of underwriting private property ownership through the commodification of access, while proclaiming a significant improvement in citizens' access rights.

Probability of survival in a random exchange economy with dependent agents

In this paper I analyze the general equilibrium in a random Walrasian economy. Dependence among agents is introduced in the form of dependency neighborhoods. Under the uncertainty, an agent may fail to survive due to a meager endowment in a particular state (direct effect), as well as due to unfavorable equilibrium price system at which the value of the endowment falls short of the minimum needed for survival (indirect terms-of-trade effect). To illustrate the main result I compute the stochastic limit of equilibrium price and probability of survival of an agent in a large Cobb-Douglas economy.

Midlatitude Forcing Mechanisms for Glacier Mass Balance Investigated Using General Circulation Models

A process-oriented modeling approach is applied in order to simulate glacier mass balance for individual glaciers using statistically downscaled general circulation models (GCMs). Glacier-specific seasonal sensitivity characteristics based on a mass balance model of intermediate complexity are used to simulate mass balances of Nigardsbreen (Norway) and Rhonegletscher (Switzerland). Simulations using reanalyses (ECMWF) for the period 1979–93 are in good agreement with in situ mass balance measurements for Nigardsbreen. The method is applied to multicentury integrations of coupled (ECHAM4/OPYC) and mixed-layer (ECHAM4/MLO) GCMs excluding external forcing. A high correlation between decadal variations in the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) and mass balance of the glaciers is found. The dominant factor for this relationship is the strong impact of winter precipitation associated with the NAO. A high NAO phase means enhanced (reduced) winter precipitation for Nigardsbreen (Rhonegletscher), typically leading to a higher (lower) than normal annual mass balance. This mechanism, entirely due to internal variations in the climate system, can explain observed strong positive mass balances for Nigardsbreen and other maritime Norwegian glaciers within the period 1980–95. It can also partly be responsible for recent strong negative mass balances of Alpine glaciers.