Late Quaternary fire regimes of Australasia

We have compiled 223 sedimentary charcoal records from Australasia in order to examine the temporal and spatial variability of fire regimes during the Late Quaternary. While some of these records cover more than a full glacial cycle, here we focus on the last 70,000 years when the number of individual records in the compilation allows more robust conclusions. On orbital time scales, fire in Australasia predominantly reflects climate, with colder periods characterized by less and warmer intervals by more biomass burning. The composite record for the region also shows considerable millennial-scale variability during the last glacial interval (73.5–14.7 ka). Within the limits of the dating uncertainties of individual records, the variability shown by the composite charcoal record is more similar to the form, number and timing of Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles as observed in Greenland ice cores than to the variability expressed in the Antarctic ice-core record. The composite charcoal record suggests increased biomass burning in the Australasian region during Greenland Interstadials and reduced burning during Greenland Stadials. Millennial-scale variability is characteristic of the composite record of the sub-tropical high pressure belt during the past 21 ka, but the tropics show a somewhat simpler pattern of variability with major peaks in biomass burning around 15 ka and 8 ka. There is no distinct change in fire regime corresponding to the arrival of humans in Australia at 50 ± 10 ka and no correlation between archaeological evidence of increased human activity during the past 40 ka and the history of biomass burning. However, changes in biomass burning in the last 200 years may have been exacerbated or influenced by humans.

Relationships between human population density and burned area at continental and global scales

We explore the large spatial variation in the relationship between population density and burned area, using continental-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) based on 13 years of satellite-derived burned area maps from the global fire emissions database (GFED) and the human population density from the gridded population of the world (GPW 2005). Significant relationships are observed over 51.5% of the global land area, and the area affected varies from continent to continent: population density has a significant impact on fire over most of Asia and Africa but is important in explaining fire over < 22% of Europe and Australia. Increasing population density is associated with both increased and decreased in fire. The nature of the relationship depends on land-use: increasing population density is associated with increased burned are in rangelands but with decreased burned area in croplands. Overall, the relationship between population density and burned area is non-monotonic: burned area initially increases with population density and then decreases when population density exceeds a threshold. These thresholds vary regionally. Our study contributes to improved understanding of how human activities relate to burned area, and should contribute to a better estimate of atmospheric emissions from biomass burning.

Fire regimes during the last glacial

Sedimentary charcoal records document changes in fire regime. We have identified 67 sites (30 sites with better than millennial resolution) which have records for some part of the Last Glacial to analyse changes in global fire regimes. Fire was consistently lower during the glacial than during the Eemian and Holocene. Within the glacial, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 is characterised globally by more fire than MIS 2. The signal for MIS 4 is less clear: there is more fire in the Northern Hemisphere and less fire in the Southern Hemisphere than during MIS 2 and 3. The records, most particularly records from the northern extratropics, show millennial-scale variability in fire regimes corresponding to the rapid climate changes associated with Dansgaard–Oeschger (D-O) cycles. Most of the D-O cycles during the Last Glacial and all of the Heinrich stadials are apparent in the composite global record of fire regime: fire increases during D-O warming events and decreases during intervals of rapid cooling. Our analyses show that fire regimes show a lagged response to rapid climate changes of ca 100–200 years in the case of D-O warming events, ca 0–100 years in the case of D-O cooling events and ca 200 years in the case of Heinrich Stadials. The Strong climatic variability experienced during the glacial resulted in important changes in fire regimes even though the base level of biomass burning was less than today.

Global patterns of vegetation response to millennial-scale variability and rapid climate change during the last glacial period

Ninety-four sites worldwide have sufficient resolution and dating to document the impact of millennial-scale climate variability on vegetation and fire regimes during the last glacial period. Although Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) cycles all show a basically similar gross structure, they vary in the magnitude and the length of the warm and cool intervals. We illustrate the geographic patterns in the climate-induced changes in vegetation by comparing D–O 6, D–O 8 and D–O 19. There is a strong response to both D–O warming events and subsequent cooling, most marked in the northern extratropics. Pollen records from marine cores from the northern extratropics confirm that there is no lag between the change in climate and the vegetation response, within the limits of the dating resolution (50–100 years). However, the magnitude of the change in vegetation is regionally specific and is not a simple function of either the magnitude or the duration of the change in climate as registered in Greenland ice cores. Fire regimes also show an initial immediate response to climate changes, but during cooling intervals there is a slow recovery of biomass burning after the initial reduction, suggesting a secondary control through the recovery of vegetation productivity. In the extratropics, vegetation changes are largely determined by winter temperatures while in the tropics they are largely determined by changes in plant-available water. Tropical vegetation records show changes corresponding to Heinrich Stadials but the response to D–O warming events is less marked than in the northern extratropics. There are very few high-resolution records from the Southern Hemisphere extratropics, but these records also show both a vegetation and fire response to millennial-scale climate variability. It is not yet possible to determine unequivocally whether terrestrial records reflect the asynchroneity apparent in the ice-core records.

Global analysis of radiative forcing from fire-induced shortwave albedo change

Land surface albedo, a key parameter to derive Earth's surface energy balance, is used in the parameterization of numerical weather prediction, climate monitoring and climate change impact assessments. Changes in albedo due to fire have not been fully investigated on a continental and global scale. The main goal of this study, therefore, is to quantify the changes in instantaneous shortwave albedo produced by biomass burning activities and their associated radiative forcing. The study relies on the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MCD64A1 burned-area product to create an annual composite of areas affected by fire and the MCD43C2 bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) albedo snow-free product to compute a bihemispherical reflectance time series. The approximate day of burning is used to calculate the instantaneous change in shortwave albedo. Using the corresponding National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) monthly mean downward solar radiation flux at the surface, the global radiative forcing associated with fire was computed. The analysis reveals a mean decrease in shortwave albedo of −0.014 (1σ = 0.017), causing a mean positive radiative forcing of 3.99 Wm−2 (1σ = 4.89) over the 2002–20012 time period in areas affected by fire. The greatest drop in mean shortwave albedo change occurs in 2002, which corresponds to the highest total area burned (378 Mha) observed in the same year and produces the highest mean radiative forcing (4.5 Wm−2). Africa is the main contributor in terms of burned area, but forests globally give the highest radiative forcing per unit area and thus give detectable changes in shortwave albedo. The global mean radiative forcing for the whole period studied (~0.0275 Wm−2) shows that the contribution of fires to the Earth system is not insignificant.

Changes in fire regimes since the Last Glacial Maximum: an assessment based on a global synthesis and analysis of charcoal data

Fire activity has varied globally and continuously since the last glacial maximum (LGM) in response to long-term changes in global climate and shorter-term regional changes in climate, vegetation, and human land use. We have synthesized sedimentary charcoal records of biomass burning since the LGM and present global maps showing changes in fire activity for time slices during the past 21,000 years (as differences in charcoal accumulation values compared to pre-industrial). There is strong broad-scale coherence in fire activity after the LGM, but spatial heterogeneity in the signals increases thereafter. In North America, Europe and southern South America, charcoal records indicate less-than-present fire activity during the deglacial period, from 21,000 to ∼11,000 cal yr BP. In contrast, the tropical latitudes of South America and Africa show greater-than-present fire activity from ∼19,000 to ∼17,000 cal yr BP and most sites from Indochina and Australia show greater-than-present fire activity from 16,000 to ∼13,000 cal yr BP. Many sites indicate greater-than-present or near-present activity during the Holocene with the exception of eastern North America and eastern Asia from 8,000 to ∼3,000 cal yr BP, Indonesia and Australia from 11,000 to 4,000 cal yr BP, and southern South America from 6,000 to 3,000 cal yr BP where fire activity was less than present. Regional coherence in the patterns of change in fire activity was evident throughout the post-glacial period. These complex patterns can largely be explained in terms of large-scale climate controls modulated by local changes in vegetation and fuel load

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, either using well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. A large variety of models exist today and it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project - FireMIP, an international project to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we summarise the current state-of-the-art in fire regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what essons may be learned from FireMIP.

What controls the vertical distribution of aerosol? Relationships between process sensitivity in HadGEM3–UKCA and inter-model variation from AeroCom Phase II

The vertical profile of aerosol is important for its radiative effects, but weakly constrained by observations on the global scale, and highly variable among different models. To investigate the controlling factors in one particular model, we investigate the effects of individual processes in HadGEM3–UKCA and compare the resulting diversity of aerosol vertical profiles with the inter-model diversity from the AeroCom Phase II control experiment. In this way we show that (in this model at least) the vertical profile is controlled by a relatively small number of processes, although these vary among aerosol components and particle sizes. We also show that sufficiently coarse variations in these processes can produce a similar diversity to that among different models in terms of the global-mean profile and, to a lesser extent, the zonal-mean vertical position. However, there are features of certain models' profiles that cannot be reproduced, suggesting the influence of further structural differences between models. In HadGEM3–UKCA, convective transport is found to be very important in controlling the vertical profile of all aerosol components by mass. In-cloud scavenging is very important for all except mineral dust. Growth by condensation is important for sulfate and carbonaceous aerosol (along with aqueous oxidation for the former and ageing by soluble material for the latter). The vertical extent of biomass-burning emissions into the free troposphere is also important for the profile of carbonaceous aerosol. Boundary-layer mixing plays a dominant role for sea salt and mineral dust, which are emitted only from the surface. Dry deposition and below-cloud scavenging are important for the profile of mineral dust only. In this model, the microphysical processes of nucleation, condensation and coagulation dominate the vertical profile of the smallest particles by number (e.g. total CN  >  3 nm), while the profiles of larger particles (e.g. CN  >  100 nm) are controlled by the same processes as the component mass profiles, plus the size distribution of primary emissions. We also show that the processes that affect the AOD-normalised radiative forcing in the model are predominantly those that affect the vertical mass distribution, in particular convective transport, in-cloud scavenging, aqueous oxidation, ageing and the vertical extent of biomass-burning emissions.

A multi-model evaluation of aerosols over South Asia: common problems and possible causes

Atmospheric pollution over South Asia attracts special attention due to its effects on regional climate, water cycle and human health. These effects are potentially growing owing to rising trends of anthropogenic aerosol emissions. In this study, the spatio-temporal aerosol distributions over South Asia from seven global aerosol models are evaluated against aerosol retrievals from NASA satellite sensors and ground-based measurements for the period of 2000–2007. Overall, substantial underestimations of aerosol loading over South Asia are found systematically in most model simulations. Averaged over the entire South Asia, the annual mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) is underestimated by a range 15 to 44% across models compared to MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer), which is the lowest bound among various satellite AOD retrievals (from MISR, SeaWiFS (Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor), MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Aqua and Terra). In particular during the post-monsoon and wintertime periods (i.e., October–January), when agricultural waste burning and anthropogenic emissions dominate, models fail to capture AOD and aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) over the Indo–Gangetic Plain (IGP) compared to ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sunphotometer measurements. The underestimations of aerosol loading in models generally occur in the lower troposphere (below 2 km) based on the comparisons of aerosol extinction profiles calculated by the models with those from Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) data. Furthermore, surface concentrations of all aerosol components (sulfate, nitrate, organic aerosol (OA) and black carbon (BC)) from the models are found much lower than in situ measurements in winter. Several possible causes for these common problems of underestimating aerosols in models during the post-monsoon and wintertime periods are identified: the aerosol hygroscopic growth and formation of secondary inorganic aerosol are suppressed in the models because relative humidity (RH) is biased far too low in the boundary layer and thus foggy conditions are poorly represented in current models, the nitrate aerosol is either missing or inadequately accounted for, and emissions from agricultural waste burning and biofuel usage are too low in the emission inventories. These common problems and possible causes found in multiple models point out directions for future model improvements in this important region.

Morphology, biomass and nutrient status of fine roots of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) as influenced by seasonal fluctuations in soil moisture and soil solution chemistry

A field monitoring study was carried out to follow the changes of fine root morphology, biomass and nutrient status in relation to seasonal changes in soil solution chemistry and moisture regime in a mature Scots pine stand on acid soil. Seasonal and yearly fluctuations in soil moisture and soil solution chemistry have been observed. Changes in soil moisture accounted for some of the changes in the soil solution chemistry. The results showed that when natural acidification in the soil occurs with low pH (3.5-4.2) and high aluminium concentration in the soil solution (> 3-10 mg l(-1)), fine root longevity and distribution could be affected. However, fine root growth of Scots pine may not be negatively influenced by adverse soil chemical conditions if soil moisture is not a limiting factor for root growth. In contrast, dry soil conditions increase Scots pine susceptibility to soil acidification and this could significantly reduce fine root growth and increase root mortality. It is therefore important to study seasonal fluctuations of the environmental variables when investigating and modelling cause-effect relationships.

Direct radiative effect of aerosols emitted by transport from road, shipping and aviation

Aerosols and their precursors are emitted abundantly by transport activities. Transportation constitutes one of the fastest growing activities and its growth is predicted to increase significantly in the future. Previous studies have estimated the aerosol direct radiative forcing from one transport sub-sector, but only one study to our knowledge estimated the range of radiative forcing from the main aerosol components (sulphate, black carbon (BC) and organic carbon) for the whole transportation sector. In this study, we compare results from two different chemical transport models and three radiation codes under different hypothesis of mixing: internal and external mixing using emission inventories for the year 2000. The main results from this study consist of a positive direct radiative forcing for aerosols emitted by road traffic of +20±11 mW m−2 for an externally mixed aerosol, and of +32±13 mW m−2 when BC is internally mixed. These direct radiative forcings are much higher than the previously published estimate of +3±11 mW m−2. For transport activities from shipping, the net direct aerosol radiative forcing is negative. This forcing is dominated by the contribution of the sulphate. For both an external and an internal mixture, the radiative forcing from shipping is estimated at −26±4 mW m−2. These estimates are in very good agreement with the range of a previously published one (from −46 to −13 mW m−2) but with a much narrower range. By contrast, the direct aerosol forcing from aviation is estimated to be small, and in the range −0.9 to +0.3 mW m−2.

Hydrolysis of N2O5 on submicron sulfuric acid aerosols

The kinetics of reactive uptake of gaseous N2O5 on submicron sulfuric acid aerosol particles has been investigated using a laminar flow reactor coupled with a differential mobility analyzer (DMA) to characterize the aerosol. The particles were generated by homogeneous nucleation of SO3/H2O mixtures. In the H2SO4 concentration range 26.3−64.5 wt % the uptake coefficient was γ = 0.033 ± 0.004, independent of acid strength. For an acid strength of 45 wt % γ was found to decrease with increasing temperature over the range 263−298 K. From this, temperature dependence values of −115 ± 30 kJ/mol and −25.5 ± 8.4 J/K mol were determined for the changes in enthalpy and entropy of the uptake process, respectively. The results are consistent with a previous model of N2O5 hydrolysis involving both a direct and an acid catalyzed mechanism, with uptake under the experimental conditions limited by mass accommodation.

Hydrolysis of N2O5 on sub-micron mineral salt aerosols

The kinetics of reactive uptake of gaseous N2O5 on sub-micron aerosol particles composed of aqueous ammonium sulfate, ammonium hydrogensulfate and sodium nitrate has been investigated. Uptake was measured in a laminar flow reactor, coupled with a differential mobility analyser (DMA) to obtain the aerosol size distribution, with N2O5 detection using NO chemiluminescence. FTIR spectroscopy was used to obtain information about the composition and water content of the aerosol particles under the conditions used in the kinetic measurements. The aerosols were generated by the nebulisation of aqueous salt solutions. The uptake coefficient on the sulfate salts was in the range [gamma]=0.0015 to 0.033 depending on temperature, humidity and phase of the aerosol. On sodium nitrate aerosols the values were much lower, [gamma]<0.001, confirming the inhibition of N2O5 hydrolysis by nitrate ions. At high humidity (>50% r.h.) the uptake coefficient on liquid sulfate aerosols is independent of water content, but at lower humidity, especially below the efflorescence point, the reactivity of the aerosol declines, correlating with the lower water content. The lower uptake rate on solid aerosols may be due to limitations imposed by the liquid volume in the particles. Uptake on sulfate aerosols showed a negative temperature dependence at T>290 K but no significant temperature dependence at lower temperatures. The results are generally consistent with previous models of N2O5 hydrolysis where the reactive intermediate is NO2+ produced by autoionisation of nitrogen pentoxide in the condensed phase.