Compensation between resolved wave driving and parameterized orographic gravity wave driving of the Brewer–Dobson circulation and its response to climate change

Following recent findings, the interaction between resolved (Rossby) wave drag and parameterized orographic gravity wave drag (OGWD) is investigated, in terms of their driving of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), in a comprehensive climate model. To this end, the parameter that effectively determines the strength of OGWD in present-day and doubled CO2 simulations is varied. The authors focus on the Northern Hemisphere during winter when the largest response of the BDC to climate change is predicted to occur. It is found that increases in OGWD are to a remarkable degree compensated by a reduction in midlatitude resolved wave drag, thereby reducing the impact of changes in OGWD on the BDC. This compensation is also found for the response to climate change: changes in the OGWD contribution to the BDC response to climate change are compensated by opposite changes in the resolved wave drag contribution to the BDC response to climate change, thereby reducing the impact of changes in OGWD on the BDC response to climate change. By contrast, compensation does not occur at northern high latitudes, where resolved wave driving and the associated downwelling increase with increasing OGWD, both for the present-day climate and the response to climate change. These findings raise confidence in the credibility of climate model projections of the strengthened BDC.

Conversations on Twitter: structure, pace, balance

Twitter is both a micro-blogging service and a platform for public conversation. Direct conversation is facilitated in Twitter through the use of @’s (mentions) and replies. While the conversational element of Twitter is of particular interest to the marketing sector, relatively few data-mining studies have focused on this area. We analyse conversations associated with reciprocated mentions that take place in a data-set consisting of approximately 4 million tweets collected over a period of 28 days that contain at least one mention. We ignore tweet content and instead use the mention network structure and its dynamical properties to identify and characterise Twitter conversations between pairs of users and within larger groups. We consider conversational balance, meaning the fraction of content contributed by each party. The goal of this work is to draw out some of the mechanisms driving conversation in Twitter, with the potential aim of developing conversational models.

The impact of cognitive control on children's goal monitoring in a time-based prospective memory task

The present study investigated whether developmental changes in cognitive control may underlie improvements of time-based prospective memory. Five-, 7-, 9-, and 11-year-olds (N = 166) completed a driving simulation task (ongoing task) in which they had to refuel their vehicle at specific points in time (PM task). The availability of cognitive control resources was experimentally manipulated by imposing a secondary task that required divided attention. Children completed the driving simulation task both in a full attention condition and a divided attention condition where they had to carry out a secondary task. Results revealed that older children performed better than younger children on the ongoing task and PM task. Children performed worse on the ongoing and PM tasks in the divided attention condition compared to the full attention condition. With respect to time monitoring in the final interval prior to the PM target, divided attention interacted with age such that older children’s time monitoring was more negatively affected by the secondary task compared to younger children. Results are discussed in terms of developmental shifts from reactive to proactive monitoring strategies.

Age and microenvironment outweigh genetic influence on the Zucker rat microbiome

Animal models are invaluable tools which allow us to investigate the microbiome-host dialogue. However, experimental design introduces biases in the data that we collect, also potentially leading to biased conclusions. With obesity at pandemic levels animal models of this disease have been developed; we investigated the role of experimental design on one such rodent model. We used 454 pyrosequencing to profile the faecal bacteria of obese (n = 6) and lean (homozygous n = 6; heterozygous n = 6) Zucker rats over a 10 week period, maintained in mixed-genotype cages, to further understand the relationships between the composition of the intestinal bacteria and age, obesity progression, genetic background and cage environment. Phylogenetic and taxon-based univariate and multivariate analyses (non-metric multidimensional scaling, principal component analysis) showed that age was the most significant source of variation in the composition of the faecal microbiota. Second to this, cage environment was found to clearly impact the composition of the faecal microbiota, with samples from animals from within the same cage showing high community structure concordance, but large differences seen between cages. Importantly, the genetically induced obese phenotype was not found to impact the faecal bacterial profiles. These findings demonstrate that the age and local environmental cage variables were driving the composition of the faecal bacteria and were more deterministically important than the host genotype. These findings have major implications for understanding the significance of functional metagenomic data in experimental studies and beg the question; what is being measured in animal experiments in which different strains are housed separately, nature or nurture?

The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a flood catastrophe model

Catastrophe risk models used by the insurance industry are likely subject to significant uncertainty, but due to their proprietary nature and strict licensing conditions they are not available for experimentation. In addition, even if such experiments were conducted, these would not be repeatable by other researchers because commercial confidentiality issues prevent the details of proprietary catastrophe model structures from being described in public domain documents. However, such experimentation is urgently required to improve decision making in both insurance and reinsurance markets. In this paper we therefore construct our own catastrophe risk model for flooding in Dublin, Ireland, in order to assess the impact of typical precipitation data uncertainty on loss predictions. As we consider only a city region rather than a whole territory and have access to detailed data and computing resources typically unavailable to industry modellers, our model is significantly more detailed than most commercial products. The model consists of four components, a stochastic rainfall module, a hydrological and hydraulic flood hazard module, a vulnerability module, and a financial loss module. Using these we undertake a series of simulations to test the impact of driving the stochastic event generator with four different rainfall data sets: ground gauge data, gauge-corrected rainfall radar, meteorological reanalysis data (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis-Interim; ERA-Interim) and a satellite rainfall product (The Climate Prediction Center morphing method; CMORPH). Catastrophe models are unusual because they use the upper three components of the modelling chain to generate a large synthetic database of unobserved and severe loss-driving events for which estimated losses are calculated. We find the loss estimates to be more sensitive to uncertainties propagated from the driving precipitation data sets than to other uncertainties in the hazard and vulnerability modules, suggesting that the range of uncertainty within catastrophe model structures may be greater than commonly believed.

Mergers and acquisitions: driving the growth of MNEs

This paper examines the effects of internationalization (international diversification) and diversification across industries (product diversification) through mergers and acquisitions (M&As) on the firm’s risk-return profile. Drawing on the theoretical work of Vachani (1991) and Rugman and Verbeke’s (2004) metrics, we classify firms according to their degree of product diversification and global reach. These two dimensions at the firm-level are moderators for the performance–expansion relationship. To account for the endogeneity of market entry decisions, we develop a panel vector autoregression. We show that global and host-triad multinational enterprises (MNEs) benefit from cross-border M&As, which reinforces their geographic footprint. In contrast to all other types of firms, home-triad firms exhibit higher firm value without a change in risk when conducting cross-industry M&As. This effect, however, depends on the degree of product diversification. For home-triad firms with a small product range engaging in cross- industry transactions is a value-enhancing growth strategy.

Concord Grape Juice, cognitive function and driving performance: a 12 week, placebo controlled, randomised, crossover trial in mothers of pre-teen children

Background: Daily consumption of Concord grape juice (CGJ) over three to four months has been shown to improve memory function in adults with mild cognitive impairment, and reduce blood pressure in hypertensive adults. These benefits are likely due to the high concentration of polyphenols in CGJ. Increased stress can impair cognitive function and elevate blood pressure. Thus we examined the potential beneficial effect of CGJ in individuals experiencing somewhat stressful demanding lifestyles. Objective: To examine the effects of twelve weeks’ daily consumption of CGJ on cognitive function, driving performance, and blood pressure in healthy, middle-aged working mothers. Design: Twenty five healthy mothers of pre-teen children, aged 40-50 years, who were employed for > 30 hours/week consumed 12oz (355ml) CGJ (containing 777mg total polyphenols) or an energy, taste and appearance matched placebo daily for twelve weeks according to a randomised, crossover design with a four week washout. Verbal and spatial memory, executive function, attention, blood pressure and mood were assessed at baseline, six weeks and twelve weeks. Immediately following the cognitive battery, a subsample of seventeen females completed a driving performance assessment in the University of Leeds Driving Simulator. The twenty five minute driving task required participants to match the speed and direction of a lead vehicle. Results: Significant improvements in immediate spatial memory and driving performance were observed following CGJ relative to placebo. There was evidence of an enduring effect of CGJ such that participants who received CGJ in arm 1 maintained better performance in the placebo arm. Conclusions: Cognitive benefits associated with chronic consumption of flavonoid-rich grape juice are not exclusive to adults with mild cognitive impairment. Moreover, these cognitive benefits are apparent in complex everyday tasks such as driving. Effects may persist beyond cessation of flavonoid consumption and future studies should carefully consider the length of washout within crossover designs.