The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves

Instrumental observations1, 2 and reconstructions3, 4 of global and hemispheric temperature evolution reveal a pronounced warming during the past 150 years. One expression of this warming is the observed increase in the occurrence of heatwaves5, 6. Conceptually this increase is understood as a shift of the statistical distribution towards warmer temperatures, while changes in the width of the distribution are often considered small7. Here we show that this framework fails to explain the record-breaking central European summer temperatures in 2003, although it is consistent with observations from previous years. We find that an event like that of summer 2003 is statistically extremely unlikely, even when the observed warming is taken into account. We propose that a regime with an increased variability of temperatures (in addition to increases in mean temperature) may be able to account for summer 2003. To test this proposal, we simulate possible future European climate with a regional climate model in a scenario with increased atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations, and find that temperature variability increases by up to 100%, with maximum changes in central and eastern Europe.

The role of atmosphere feedbacks during ENSO in the CMIP3 models. Part III: the shortwave flux feedback

Previous studies using coupled general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that the atmosphere model plays a dominant role in the modeled El Nin ̃ o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and that intermodel differences in the thermodynamical damping of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are a dominant contributor to the ENSO amplitude diversity. This study presents a detailed analysis of the shortwave flux feedback (aSW) in 12 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) simulations, motivated by findings that aSW is the primary contributor to model thermodynamical damping errors. A ‘‘feedback decomposition method,’’ developed to elucidate the aSW biases, shows that all models un- derestimate the dynamical atmospheric response to SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific, leading to un- derestimated aSW values. Biases in the cloud response to dynamics and the shortwave interception by clouds also contribute to errors in aSW. Changes in the aSW feedback between the coupled and corresponding atmosphere-only simulations are related to changes in the mean dynamics. A large nonlinearity is found in the observed and modeled SW flux feedback, hidden when linearly cal- culating aSW. In the observations, two physical mechanisms are proposed to explain this nonlinearity: 1) a weaker subsidence response to cold SST anomalies than the ascent response to warm SST anomalies and 2) a nonlinear high-level cloud cover response to SST. The shortwave flux feedback nonlinearity tends to be underestimated by the models, linked to an underestimated nonlinearity in the dynamical response to SST. The process-based methodology presented in this study may help to correct model ENSO atmospheric biases, ultimately leading to an improved simulation of ENSO in GCMs.

The ENSO-Asian monsoon interaction in a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM

In this study, the authors evaluate the (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) ENSO–Asian monsoon interaction in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM) known as HadCM3. The main focus is on two evolving anomalous anticyclones: one located over the south Indian Ocean (SIO) and the other over the western North Pacific (WNP). These two anomalous anticyclones are closely related to the developing and decaying phases of the ENSO and play a crucial role in linking the Asian monsoon to ENSO. It is found that the HadCM3 can well simulate the main features of the evolution of both anomalous anticyclones and the related SST dipoles, in association with the different phases of the ENSO cycle. By using the simulated results, the authors examine the relationship between the WNP/SIO anomalous anticyclones and the ENSO cycle, in particular the biennial component of the relationship. It is found that a strong El Niño event tends to be followed by a more rapid decay and is much more likely to become a La Niña event in the subsequent winter. The twin anomalous anticyclones in the western Pacific in the summer of a decaying El Niño are crucial for the transition from an El Niño into a La Niña. The El Niño (La Niña) events, especially the strong ones, strengthen significantly the correspondence between the SIO anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly in the preceding autumn and WNP anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly in the subsequent spring, and favor the persistence of the WNP anomaly from spring to summer. The present results suggest that both El Niño (La Niña) and the SIO/WNP anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomalies are closely tied with the tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO). In addition, variability in the East Asian summer monsoon, which is dominated by the internal atmospheric variability, seems to be responsible for the appearance of the WNP anticyclonic anomaly through an upper-tropospheric meridional teleconnection pattern over the western and central Pacific.

Climate change scenarios for precipitation extremes in Portugal

Precipitation indices are commonly used as climate change indicators. Considering four Climate Variability and Predictability-recommended indices, this study assesses possible changes in their spatial patterns over Portugal under future climatic conditions. Precipitation data from the regional climate model Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling–Climate version of the Local Model (CCLM) ensemble simulations with ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 boundary conditions are used for this purpose. For recent–past, medians and probability density functions of the CCLM-based indices are validated against station-based and gridded observational dataset from ENSEMBLES-based (gridded daily precipitation data provided by the European Climate Assessment & Dataset project) indices. It is demonstrated that the model is able to realistically reproduce not only precipitation but also the corresponding extreme indices. Climate change projections for 2071–2100 (A1B and B1 SRES scenarios) reveal significant decreases in total precipitation, particularly in autumn over northwestern and southern Portugal, though changes exhibit distinct local and seasonal patterns and are typically stronger for A1B than for B1. The increase in winter precipitation over northeastern Portugal in A1B is the most important exception to the overall drying trend. Contributions of extreme precipitation events to total precipitation are also expected to increase, mainly in winter and spring over northeastern Portugal. Strong projected increases in the dry spell lengths in autumn and spring are also noteworthy, giving evidence for an extension of the dry season from summer to spring and autumn. Although no coupling analysis is undertaken, these changes are qualitatively related to modifications in the large-scale circulation over the Euro-Atlantic area, more specifically to shifts in the position of the Azores High and associated changes in the large-scale pressure gradient over the area.

Localization of deep water formation: role of atmospheric moisture transport and geometrical constraints on ocean circulation

A series of coupled atmosphere–ocean–ice aquaplanet experiments is described in which topological constraints on ocean circulation are introduced to study the role of ocean circulation on the mean climate of the coupled system. It is imagined that the earth is completely covered by an ocean of uniform depth except for the presence or absence of narrow barriers that extend from the bottom of the ocean to the sea surface. The following four configurations are described: Aqua (no land), Ridge (one barrier extends from pole to pole), Drake (one barrier extends from the North Pole to 35°S), and DDrake (two such barriers are set 90° apart and join at the North Pole, separating the ocean into a large basin and a small basin, connected to the south). On moving from Aqua to Ridge to Drake to DDrake, the energy transports in the equilibrium solutions become increasingly “realistic,” culminating in DDrake, which has an uncanny resemblance to the present climate. Remarkably, the zonal-average climates of Drake and DDrake are strikingly similar, exhibiting almost identical heat and freshwater transports, and meridional overturning circulations. However, Drake and DDrake differ dramatically in their regional climates. The small and large basins of DDrake exhibit distinctive Atlantic-like and Pacific-like characteristics, respectively: the small basin is warmer, saltier, and denser at the surface than the large basin, and is the main site of deep water formation with a deep overturning circulation and strong northward ocean heat transport. A sensitivity experiment with DDrake demonstrates that the salinity contrast between the two basins, and hence the localization of deep convection, results from a deficit of precipitation, rather than an excess of evaporation, over the small basin. It is argued that the width of the small basin relative to the zonal fetch of atmospheric precipitation is the key to understanding this salinity contrast. Finally, it is argued that many gross features of the present climate are consequences of two topological asymmetries that have profound effects on ocean circulation: a meridional asymmetry (circumpolar flow in the Southern Hemisphere; blocked flow in the Northern Hemisphere) and a zonal asymmetry (a small basin and a large basin).

The vertical structure of ocean heat transport

One of the most important contributions the ocean makes to Earth's climate is through its poleward heat transport: about 1.5 PW or more than 30% of that accomplished by the ocean-atmosphere system (Trenberth and Caron, 2001). Recently, concern has arisen over whether global warming could affect this heat transport (Watson et al., 2001), for example, reducing high latitude convection and triggering a collapse of the deep overturning circulation (Rahmstorf, 1995). While the consequences of abrupt changes in oceanic circulation should be of concern, we argue that the attention devoted to deep circulations is disproportionate to their role in heat transport. For this purpose, we introduce a heat function which identifies the contribution to the heat transport by different components of the oceanic circulation. A new view of the ocean emerges in which a shallow surface intensified circulation dominates the poleward heat transport.

Climate at high-obliquity

The question of climate at high obliquity is raised in the context of both exoplanet studies (e.g. habitability) and paleoclimates studies (evidence for low-latitude glaciation during the Neoproterozoic and the ”Snowball Earth” hypothesis). States of high obliquity, φ, are distinctive in that, for φ ≥54◦, the poles receive more solar radiation in the annual mean than the Equator, opposite to the present day situation. In addition, the seasonal cycle of insolation is extreme, with the poles alternatively “facing” the sun and sheltering in the dark for months. The novelty of our approach is to consider the role of a dynamical ocean in controlling the surface climate at high obliquity, which in turn requires understanding of the surface winds patterns when temperature gradients are reversed. To address these questions, a coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice GCM configured on an aquaplanet is employed. Except for the absence of topography and modified obliquity, the set-up is Earth-like. Two large obliquities φ, 54◦ and 90◦, are compared to today’s Earth value, φ=23.5◦. Three key results emerge at high obliquity: 1) despite reversed temper- ature gradients, mid-latitudes surface winds are westerly and trade winds exist at the equator (as for φ=23.5◦) although the westerlies are confined to the summer hemisphere, 2) a habitable planet is possible with mid-latitude temperatures in the range 300-280 K and 3) a stable climate state with an ice cap limited to the equatorial region is unlikely. We clarify the dynamics behind these features (notably by an analysis of the potential vorticity structure and conditions for baroclinic instability of the atmosphere). Interestingly, we find that the absence of a stable partially glaciated state is critically linked to the absence of ocean heat transport during winter, a feature ultimately traced back to the high seasonality of baroclinic instability conditions in the atmosphere.

An investigation into the impact of using various techniques to estimate Arctic surface air temperature anomalies

Time series of global and regional mean Surface Air Temperature (SAT) anomalies are a common metric used to estimate recent climate change. Various techniques can be used to create these time series from meteorological station data. The degree of difference arising from using five different techniques, based on existing temperature anomaly dataset techniques, to estimate Arctic SAT anomalies over land and sea ice were investigated using reanalysis data as a testbed. Techniques which interpolated anomalies were found to result in smaller errors than non-interpolating techniques relative to the reanalysis reference. Kriging techniques provided the smallest errors in estimates of Arctic anomalies and Simple Kriging was often the best kriging method in this study, especially over sea ice. A linear interpolation technique had, on average, Root Mean Square Errors (RMSEs) up to 0.55 K larger than the two kriging techniques tested. Non-interpolating techniques provided the least representative anomaly estimates. Nonetheless, they serve as useful checks for confirming whether estimates from interpolating techniques are reasonable. The interaction of meteorological station coverage with estimation techniques between 1850 and 2011 was simulated using an ensemble dataset comprising repeated individual years (1979-2011). All techniques were found to have larger RMSEs for earlier station coverages. This supports calls for increased data sharing and data rescue, especially in sparsely observed regions such as the Arctic.

The greening of Arabia: multiple opportunities for human occupation of the Arabian peninsula during the Late Pleistocene inferred from an ensemble of climate model simulations

Climate models are potentially useful tools for addressing human dispersals and demographic change. The Arabian Peninsula is becoming increasingly significant in the story of human dispersals out of Africa during the Late Pleistocene. Although characterised largely by arid environments today, emerging climate records indicate that the peninsula was wetter many times in the past, suggesting that the region may have been inhabited considerably more than hitherto thought. Explaining the origins and spatial distribution of increased rainfall is challenging because palaeoenvironmental research in the region is in an early developmental stage. We address environmental oscillations by assembling and analysing an ensemble of five global climate models (CCSM3, COSMOS, HadCM3, KCM, and NorESM). We focus on precipitation, as the variable is key for the development of lakes, rivers and savannas. The climate models generated here were compared with published palaeoenvironmental data such as palaeolakes, speleothems and alluvial fan records as a means of validation. All five models showed, to varying degrees, that the Arabia Peninsula was significantly wetter than today during the Last Interglacial (130 ka and 126/125 ka timeslices), and that the main source of increased rainfall was from the North African summer monsoon rather than the Indian Ocean monsoon or from Mediterranean climate patterns. Where available, 104 ka (MIS 5c), 56 ka (early MIS 3) and 21 ka (LGM) timeslices showed rainfall was present but not as extensive as during the Last Interglacial. The results favour the hypothesis that humans potentially moved out of Africa and into Arabia on multiple occasions during pluvial phases of the Late Pleistocene.

The drivers of corporate climate change strategies and public policy: a new resource-based view perspective

Effective public policy to mitigate climate change footprints should build on data-driven analysis of firm-level strategies. This article’s conceptual approach augments the resource-based view (RBV) of the firm and identifies investments in four firm-level resource domains (Governance, Information management, Systems, and Technology [GISTe]) to develop capabilities in climate change impact mitigation. The authors denote the resulting framework as the GISTe model, which frames their analysis and public policy recommendations. This research uses the 2008 Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) database, with high-quality information on firm-level climate change strategies for 552 companies from North America and Europe. In contrast to the widely accepted myth that European firms are performing better than North American ones, the authors find a different result. Many firms, whether European or North American, do not just “talk” about climate change impact mitigation, but actually do “walk the talk.” European firms appear to be better than their North American counterparts in “walk I,” denoting attention to governance, information management, and systems. But when it comes down to “walk II,” meaning actual Technology-related investments, North American firms’ performance is equal or superior to that of the European companies. The authors formulate public policy recommendations to accelerate firm-level, sector-level, and cluster-level implementation of climate change strategies.

Steric sea level variability (1993-2010) in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses and objective analyses

Quantifying the effect of the seawater density changes on sea level variability is of crucial importance for climate change studies, as the sea level cumulative rise can be regarded as both an important climate change indicator and a possible danger for human activities in coastal areas. In this work, as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project, the global and regional steric sea level changes are estimated and compared from an ensemble of 16 ocean reanalyses and 4 objective analyses. These estimates are initially compared with a satellite-derived (altimetry minus gravimetry) dataset for a short period (2003–2010). The ensemble mean exhibits a significant high correlation at both global and regional scale, and the ensemble of ocean reanalyses outperforms that of objective analyses, in particular in the Southern Ocean. The reanalysis ensemble mean thus represents a valuable tool for further analyses, although large uncertainties remain for the inter-annual trends. Within the extended intercomparison period that spans the altimetry era (1993–2010), we find that the ensemble of reanalyses and objective analyses are in good agreement, and both detect a trend of the global steric sea level of 1.0 and 1.1 ± 0.05 mm/year, respectively. However, the spread among the products of the halosteric component trend exceeds the mean trend itself, questioning the reliability of its estimate. This is related to the scarcity of salinity observations before the Argo era. Furthermore, the impact of deep ocean layers is non-negligible on the steric sea level variability (22 and 12 % for the layers below 700 and 1500 m of depth, respectively), although the small deep ocean trends are not significant with respect to the products spread.

Glacial lake drainage in Patagonia (13-8 kyr) and response of the adjacent Pacific Ocean

Large freshwater lakes formed in North America and Europe during deglaciation following the Last Glacial Maximum. Rapid drainage of these lakes into the Oceans resulted in abrupt perturbations in climate, including the Younger Dryas and 8.2 kyr cooling events. In the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere major glacial lakes also formed and drained during deglaciation but little is known about the magnitude, organization and timing of these drainage events and their e ect on regional climate. We use 16 new single-grain optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dates to de ne three stages of rapid glacial lake drainage in the Lago General Carrera/Lago Buenos Aires and Lago Cohrane/ Pueyrredón basins of Patagonia and provide the rst assessment of the e ects of lake drainage on the Paci c Ocean. Lake drainage occurred between 13 and 8 kyr ago and was initially gradual eastward into the Atlantic, then subsequently reorganized westward into the Paci c as new drainage routes opened up during Patagonian Ice Sheet deglaciation. Coupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments using HadCM3 with an imposed freshwater surface “hosing” to simulate glacial lake drainage suggest that a negative salinity anomaly was advected south around Cape Horn, resulting in brief but signi cant impacts on coastal ocean vertical mixing and regional climate.

Seasonality of submesoscale flows in the ocean surface boundary layer

A signature of submesoscale flows in the upper ocean is skewness in the distribution of relative vorticity. Expected to result for high Rossby-number flows, such skewness has implications for mixing, dissipation and stratification within the upper ocean. An array of moorings deployed in the Northeast Atlantic for one year as part of the OSMOSIS experiment reveals that relative vorticity is positively skewed during winter even though the scale of the Rossby number is less than 0.5. Furthermore, this skewness is reduced to zero during spring and autumn. There is also evidence of modest seasonal variations in the gradient Rossby number. The proposed mechanism by which relative vorticity is skewed is that the ratio of lateral to vertical buoyancy gradients, as summarized by the inverse gradient Richardson number, restricts its range during winter but less so at other times of the year. These results support recent observations and model simulations suggesting the upper ocean is host to a seasonal cycle in submesoscale turbulence.

Regional atmospheric circulation over Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum and its links to precipitation

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exhibits different large-scale atmospheric conditions compared to present-day climate due to altered boundary conditions. The regional atmospheric circulation and associated precipitation patterns over Europe are characterized for the first time with a weather typing approach (circulation weather types, CWT) for LGM paleoclimate simulations. The CWT approach is applied to four representative regions across Europe. While the CWTs over Western Europe are prevailing westerly for both present-day and LGM conditions, considerable differences are identified elsewhere: Southern Europe experienced more frequent westerly and cyclonic CWTs under LGM conditions, while Central and Eastern Europe was predominantly affected by southerly and easterly flow patterns. Under LGM conditions, rainfall is enhanced over Western Europe but is reduced over most of Central and Eastern Europe. These differences are explained by changing CWT frequencies and evaporation patterns over the North Atlantic Ocean. The regional differences of the CWTs and precipitation patterns are linked to the North Atlantic storm track, which was stronger over Europe in all considered models during the LGM, explaining the overall increase of the cyclonic CWT. Enhanced evaporation over the North Atlantic leads to higher moisture availability over the ocean. Despite the overall cooling during the LGM, this explains the enhanced precipitation over southwestern Europe, particularly Iberia. This study links large-scale atmospheric dynamics to the regional circulation and associated precipitation patterns and provides an improved regional assessment of the European climate under LGM conditions.