Evaluation of the model representation of the evolution of convective systems using satellite observations of outgoing longwave radiation

We introduce a technique for assessing the diurnal development of convective storm systems based on outgoing longwave radiation fields. Using the size distribution of the storms measured from a series of images, we generate an array in the lengthscale-time domain based on the standard score statistic. It demonstrates succinctly the size evolution of storms as well as the dissipation kinematics. It also provides evidence related to the temperature evolution of the cloud tops. We apply this approach to a test case comparing observations made by the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget instrument to output from the Met Office Unified Model run at two resolutions. The 12km resolution model produces peak convective activity on all lengthscales significantly earlier in the day than shown by the observations and no evidence for storms growing in size. The 4km resolution model shows realistic timing and growth evolution although the dissipation mechanism still differs from the observed data.

Predicting the profile of nutrients available for absorption: from nutrient requirement to animal response and environmental impact

Current feed evaluation systems for dairy cattle aim to match nutrient requirements with nutrient intake at pre-defined production levels. These systems were not developed to address, and are not suitable to predict, the responses to dietary changes in terms of production level and product composition, excretion of nutrients to the environment, and nutrition related disorders. The change from a requirement to a response system to meet the needs of various stakeholders requires prediction of the profile of absorbed nutrients and its subsequent utilisation for various purposes. This contribution examines the challenges to predicting the profile of nutrients available for absorption in dairy cattle and provides guidelines for further improved prediction with regard to animal production responses and environmental pollution. The profile of nutrients available for absorption comprises volatile fatty acids, long-chain fatty acids, amino acids and glucose. Thus the importance of processes in the reticulo-rumen is obvious. Much research into rumen fermentation is aimed at determination of substrate degradation rates. Quantitative knowledge on rates of passage of nutrients out of the rumen is rather limited compared with that on degradation rates, and thus should be an important theme in future research. Current systems largely ignore microbial metabolic variation, and extant mechanistic models of rumen fermentation give only limited attention to explicit representation of microbial metabolic activity. Recent molecular techniques indicate that knowledge on the presence and activity of various microbial species is far from complete. Such techniques may give a wealth of information, but to include such findings in systems predicting the nutrient profile requires close collaboration between molecular scientists and mathematical modellers on interpreting and evaluating quantitative data. Protozoal metabolism is of particular interest here given the paucity of quantitative data. Empirical models lack the biological basis necessary to evaluate mitigation strategies to reduce excretion of waste, including nitrogen, phosphorus and methane. Such models may have little predictive value when comparing various feeding strategies. Examples include the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier II models to quantify methane emissions and current protein evaluation systems to evaluate low protein diets to reduce nitrogen losses to the environment. Nutrient based mechanistic models can address such issues. Since environmental issues generally attract more funding from governmental offices, further development of nutrient based models may well take place within an environmental framework.

A revised Tobit procedure for mitigating bias in the presence of non-zero censoring with an application to milk-market participation in the Ethiopian highlands

Fixed transactions costs that prohibit exchange engender bias in supply analysis due to censoring of the sample observations. The associated bias in conventional regression procedures applied to censored data and the construction of robust methods for mitigating bias have been preoccupations of applied economists since Tobin [Econometrica 26 (1958) 24]. This literature assumes that the true point of censoring in the data is zero and, when this is not the case, imparts a bias to parameter estimates of the censored regression model. We conjecture that this bias can be significant; affirm this from experiments; and suggest techniques for mitigating this bias using Bayesian procedures. The bias-mitigating procedures are based on modifications of the key step that facilitates Bayesian estimation of the censored regression model; are easy to implement; work well in both small and large samples; and lead to significantly improved inference in the censored regression model. These findings are important in light of the widespread use of the zero-censored Tobit regression and we investigate their consequences using data on milk-market participation in the Ethiopian highlands. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) to predict biological parameters of maize silage: effects of particle comminution, oven drying temperature and the presence of residual moisture

Maize silage nutritive quality is routinely determined by near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS). However, little is known about the impact of sample preparation on the accuracy of the calibration to predict biological traits. A sample population of 48 maize silages representing a wide range of physiological maturities was used in a study to determine the impact of different sample preparation procedures (i.e., drying regimes; the presence or absence of residual moisture; the degree of particle comminution) on resultant NIR prediction statistics. All silages were scanned using a total of 12 combinations of sample pre-treatments. Each sample preparation combination was subjected to three multivariate regression techniques to give a total of 36 predictions per biological trait. Increased sample preparations procedure, relative to scanning the unprocessed whole plant (WP) material, always resulted in a numerical minimisation of model statistics. However, the ability of each of the treatments to significantly minimise the model statistics differed. Particle comminution was the most important factor, oven-drying regime was intermediate, and residual moisture presence was the least important. Models to predict various biological parameters of maize silage will be improved if material is subjected to a high degree of particle comminution (i.e., having been passed through a 1 mm screen) and developed on plant material previously dried at 60 degrees C. The extra effort in terms of time and cost required to remove sample residual moisture cannot be justified. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evidence for the presence of bluetongue virus in Kosovo between 2001 and 2004

In 2001, clinical cases of bluetongue were observed in Kosovo, and in that year and in 2003 and 2004, serum samples were collected from cattle and small ruminants and tested for antibodies to bluetongue virus. The results provide evidence that bluetongue virus was not present in Kosovo before the summer of 2001, but that the virus circulated subclinically among the cattle and sheep populations of Kosovo in 2002, 2003 and 2004.

An elevated PSA, which normalizes, does not exclude the presence of prostate cancer

The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence of prostate cancer in patients who have an elevated referral prostate-specific antigen (PSA), which subsequently falls to within their normal age-specific reference range prior to prostate biopsy. The study demonstrated that of the 160 patients recruited, 21 (13%) had a repeat PSA level which had fallen back to within their normal range. Five of these 21 patients (24%) were diagnosed with prostate cancer following biopsy, two of whom had a benign prostate examination. The study, therefore, demonstrates that normalisation of the PSA level prior to biopsy does not exclude the presence of prostate cancer even when the prostate feels benign.

API-CALC 1.0: a computer program for calculating the average probability of identity allowing for substructure, inbreeding and the presence of close relatives

Individual identification via DNA profiling is important in molecular ecology, particularly in the case of noninvasive sampling. A key quantity in determining the number of loci required is the probability of identity (PIave), the probability of observing two copies of any profile in the population. Previously this has been calculated assuming no inbreeding or population structure. Here we introduce formulae that account for these factors, whilst also accounting for relatedness structure in the population. These formulae are implemented in API-CALC 1.0, which calculates PIave for either a specified value, or a range of values, for F-IS and F-ST.

Stabilisation of two Cu(I)-amino N bonds in presence of imino N's

Two structurally characterised examples of air stable Cu-1 (amino N)(2)(imino N)(2) chromophores having a Cu(II/I) potential of 0.01-0.19 V vs SCE in CH2Cl2 are provided using two tetradentate N-donor ligands.

Implementing innovation in construction: Contexts, relative boundedness and actor-network theory

Theoretical understanding of the implementation and use of innovations within construction contexts is discussed and developed. It is argued that both the rhetoric of the 'improvement agenda' within construction and theories of innovation fail to account for the complex contexts and disparate perspectives which characterize construction work. To address this, the concept of relative boundedness is offered. Relatively unbounded innovation is characterized by a lack of a coherent central driving force or mediator with the ability to reconcile potential conflicts and overcome resistance to implementation. This is a situation not exclusive to, but certainly indicative of, much construction project work. Drawing on empirical material from the implementation of new design and coordination technologies on a large construction project, the concept is developed, concentrating on the negotiations and translations implementation mobilized. An actor-network theory (ANT) approach is adopted, which emphasizes the roles that both human actors and non-human agents play in the performance and outcomes of these interactions. Three aspects of how relative boundedness is constituted and affected are described; through the robustness of existing practices and expectations, through the delegation of interests on to technological artefacts and through the mobilization of actors and artefacts to constrain and limit the scope of negotiations over new technology implementation.

Architect and user interaction: The spoken representation of form and functional meaning

The paper is an investigation of the exchange of ideas and information between an architect and building users in the early stages of the building design process before the design brief or any drawings have been produced. The purpose of the research is to gain insight into the type of information users exchange with architects in early design conversations and to better understand the influence the format of design interactions and interactional behaviours have on the exchange of information. We report an empirical study of pre-briefing conversations in which the overwhelming majority of the exchanges were about the functional or structural attributes of space, discussion that touched on the phenomenological, perceptual and the symbolic meanings of space were rare. We explore the contextual features of meetings and the conversational strategies taken by the architect to prompt the users for information and the influence these had on the information provided. Recommendations are made on the format and structure of pre-briefing conversations and on designers' strategies for raising the level of information provided by the user beyond the functional or structural attributes of space.

Assessment of the presence of Salmonella spp. in Egyptian dairy products using various detection media

Aims: To make a preliminary assessment of the incidence of Salmonella in Egyptian dairy products, and to investigate the effectiveness of various protocols for the detection of the pathogen in these products. Methods and Results: Samples of milk and related dairy products were randomly collected from local markets and examined for the presence of Salmonella. While most samples were free of the organism, isolates of Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serovar Typhimurium PT 8 could be recovered from 'matared' cream specimens. These isolates were susceptible to antibiotics usually used to challenge infections caused by Salmonella. A combination of buffered peptone water, Muller-Kauffman tetrathionate broth, and brilliant green phenol red agar gave the best results for the detection of the pathogen. Selenite-cystine broth and Hektoen enteric agar were ineffective as an enrichment and a plating medium, respectively, in the isolation of Salmonella. A modified identification strategy that reduces the burden of serological testing of presumptive isolates is proposed. Conclusions, Significance and Impact of the Study: 'Matared' cream could be a vehicle for transmitting Salmonella. Using the above combination of media, beside the suggested modified confirmatory procedure, should increase the effectiveness and ease of the detection of Salmonella in milk and dairy products.

Changes in the antioxidant properties of protein solutions in the presence of epigallocatechin gallate

beta-Casein and alpha-casein showed radical-scavenging activities in aqueous solution, whereas bovine serum albumin (BSA), alpha-lactalbumin and P-lactoglobulin showed much weaker antioxidant activity, when assessed by the 2,2'-azino-bis(3-ethylbenzothiazoline-6-sulfonic acid) diammonium salt (ABTS) radical-scavenging assay. However, beta-casein and alpha-casein showed reduced antioxidant activity after storage at 30 degrees C. An increase in radical- scavenging activity and a fall in fluorescence of the protein component were evident after 6 h, when BSA, beta-lactoglobulin or casein were mixed with EGCG, and excess EGCG was removed, indicating the formation of a complex with this protein on mixing. Storage of all the proteins with EGCG at 30 degrees C caused an increase in the antioxidant activity of the isolated protein component after separation from excess EGCG. This showed that EGCG was reacting with the proteins and that the protein-bound catechin had antioxidant properties. The reaction of EGCG with BSA, casein and beta-lactoglobulin was confirmed by the loss of fluorescence of the protein on storage, and the increase in UV absorbance between 250 and 400 nm. The increase in antioxidant activity of BSA after storage with EGCG was confirmed by the ferric reducing antioxidant potential (FRAP) and the oxygen radical antioxidant capacity (ORAC) assays. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.