Applying Jackson’s methodological ideal-types: problems of differentiation and classification

In The Conduct of Inquiry in International Relations, Patrick Jackson situates methodologies in International Relations in relation to their underlying philosophical assumptions. One of his aims is to map International Relations debates in a way that ‘capture[s] current controversies’ (p. 40). This ambition is overstated: whilst Jackson’s typology is useful as a clarificatory tool, (re)classifying existing scholarship in International Relations is more problematic. One problem with Jackson’s approach is that he tends to run together the philosophical assumptions which decisively differentiate his methodologies (by stipulating a distinctive warrant for knowledge claims) and the explanatory strategies that are employed to generate such knowledge claims, suggesting that the latter are entailed by the former. In fact, the explanatory strategies which Jackson associates with each methodology reflect conventional practice in International Relations just as much as they reflect philosophical assumptions. This makes it more difficult to identify each methodology at work than Jackson implies. I illustrate this point through a critical analysis of Jackson’s controversial reclassification of Waltz as an analyticist, showing that whilst Jackson’s typology helps to expose inconsistencies in Waltz’s approach, it does not fully support the proposed reclassification. The conventional aspect of methodologies in International Relations also raises questions about the limits of Jackson’s ‘engaged pluralism’.

Palaeovegetation in China during the late Quaternary: Biome reconstructions based on a global scheme of plant functional types

Two previous reconstructions of palaeovegetation across the whole of China were performed using a simple classification of plant functional types (PFTs). Now a more explicit, global PFT classification scheme has been developed, and a substantial number of additional pollen records have become available. Here we apply the global scheme of PFTs to a comprehensive set of pollen records available from China to test the applicability of the global scheme of PFTs in China, and to obtain a well-founded reconstruction of changing palaeovegetation patterns. A total of 806 pollen surface samples, 188 mid-Holocene (MH, 6000 14C yr BP) and 50 last glacial maximum (LGM, 18,000 14C yr BP) pollen records were used to reconstruct vegetation patterns in China, based on a new global classification system of PFTs and a standard numerical technique for biome assignment (biomization). The biome reconstruction based on pollen surface samples showed convincing agreement with present potential natural vegetation. Coherent patterns of change in biome distribution between MH, LGM and present are observed. In the MH, cold and cool-temperate evergreen needleleaf forests and mixed forests, temperate deciduous broadleaf forest, and warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest in eastern China were shifted northward by 200–500 km. Cold-deciduous forest in northeastern China was replaced by cold evergreen needleleaf forest while in central northern China, cold-deciduous forest was present at some sites now occupied by temperate grassland and desert. The forest–grassland boundary was 200–300 km west of its present position. Temperate xerophytic shrubland, temperate grassland and desert covered a large area on the Tibetan Plateau, but the area of tundra was reduced. Treeline was 300–500 m higher than present in Tibet. These changes imply generally warmer winters, longer growing seasons and more precipitation during the MH. Westward shifts of the forest–shrubland–grassland and grassland–desert boundaries imply greater moisture availability in the MH, consistent with a stronger summer monsoon. During the LGM, in contrast, cold-deciduous forest, cool-temperate evergreen needleleaf forest, cool mixed forests, warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest in eastern China were displaced to the south by 300–1000 km, while temperate deciduous broadleaf forest, pure warm-temperate evergreen forest, tropical semi-evergreen and evergreen broadleaf forests were restricted or absent from the mainland of southern China, implying colder winters than present. Strong shifts of temperate xerophytic shrubland, temperate grassland and desert to the south and east in northern and western China and on the Tibetan Plateau imply drier conditions than present.

Influence of UV radiation on chlorophyll, and antioxidant enzymes of wetland plants in different types of constructed wetland

A surface- and vertical subsurface-flow-constructed wetland were designed to study the response of chlorophyll and antioxidant enzymes to elevated UV radiation in three types of wetland plants (Canna indica, Phragmites austrail, and Typha augustifolia). Results showed that (1) chlorophyll content of C. indica, P. austrail, and T. augustifolia in the constructed wetland was significantly lower where UV radiation was increased by 10 and 20 % above ambient solar level than in treatment with ambient solar UV radiation (p < 0.05). (2) The malondialdehyde (MDA) content, guaiacol peroxidase (POD), superoxide dismutase (SOD), and catalase (CAT) activities of wetland plants increased with elevated UV radiation intensity. (3) The increased rate of MDA, SOD, POD, and CAT activities of C. indica, P. australis, and T. angustifolia by elevated UV radiation of 10 % was higher in vertical subsurface-flow-constructed wetland than in surface-flow-constructed wetland. The sensitivity of MDA, SOD, POD, and CAT activities of C. indica, P. austrail, and T. augustifolia to the elevated UV radiation was lower in surface-flow-constructed wetland than in the vertical subsurface-flow-constructed wetland, which was related to a reduction in UV radiation intensity through the dissolved organic carbon and suspended matter in the water. C. indica had the highest SOD and POD activities, which implied it is more sensitive to enhanced UV radiation. Therefore, different wetland plants had different antioxidant enzymes by elevated UV radiation, which were more sensitive in vertical subsurface-flow-constructed wetland than in surface-flow-constructed wetland.

Polyphenols, glucosinolates, dietary fibre and colon cancer: Understanding the potential of specific types of fruit and vegetables to reduce bowel cancer progression

Colorectal cancer is the third most prevalent cancer worldwide and the most common diet-related cancer, influenced by diets rich in red meat, low in plant foods and high in saturated fats. Observational studies have shown that fruit and vegetable intake may reduce colorectal cancer risks, although the precise bioactive components remain unclear. This review will outline the evidence for the role of polyphenols, glucosinolates and fibres against cancer progression in the gastrointestinal tract. Those bioactive compounds are considered protective agents against colon cancer, with evidence taken from epidemiological, human clinical, animal and in vitro studies. Various mechanisms of action have been postulated, such as the potential of polyphenols and glucosinolates to inhibit cancer cell growth and the actions of insoluble fibres as prebiotics and the evidence for these actions are detailed within. In addition, recent evidence suggests that polyphenols also have the potential to shift the gut ecology in a beneficial manner. Such actions of both fibre and polyphenols in the gastrointestinal tract and through interaction with gut epithelial cells may act in an additive manner to help explain why certain fruits and vegetables, but not all, act to differing extents to inhibit cancer incidence and progression. Indeed, a focus on the individual actions of such fruit and vegetable components, in particular polyphenols, glucosinolates and fibres is necessary to help explain which components are active in reducing gastrointestinal cancer risk.

Looking in the wrong place for healthcare improvements: a system dynamics study of an accident and emergency department

Accident and Emergency (A&E) units provide a route for patients requiring urgent admission to acute hospitals. Public concern over long waiting times for admissions motivated this study, whose aim is to explore the factors which contribute to such delays. The paper discusses the formulation and calibration of a system dynamics model of the interaction of demand pattern, A&E resource deployment, other hospital processes and bed numbers; and the outputs of policy analysis runs of the model which vary a number of the key parameters. Two significant findings have policy implications. One is that while some delays to patients are unavoidable, reductions can be achieved by selective augmentation of resources within, and relating to, the A&E unit. The second is that reductions in bed numbers do not increase waiting times for emergency admissions, their effect instead being to increase sharply the number of cancellations of admissions for elective surgery. This suggests that basing A&E policy solely on any single criterion will merely succeed in transferring the effects of a resource deficit to a different patient group.

Contributions of different cloud types to feedbacks and rapid adjustments in CMIP5

Using five climate model simulations of the response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2, the authors perform the first simultaneous model intercomparison of cloud feedbacks and rapid radiative adjustments with cloud masking effects removed, partitioned among changes in cloud types and gross cloud properties. Upon CO2 quadrupling, clouds exhibit a rapid reduction in fractional coverage, cloud-top pressure, and optical depth, with each contributing equally to a 1.1 W m−2 net cloud radiative adjustment, primarily from shortwave radiation. Rapid reductions in midlevel clouds and optically thick clouds are important in reducing planetary albedo in every model. As the planet warms, clouds become fewer, higher, and thicker, and global mean net cloud feedback is positive in all but one model and results primarily from increased trapping of longwave radiation. As was true for earlier models, high cloud changes are the largest contributor to intermodel spread in longwave and shortwave cloud feedbacks, but low cloud changes are the largest contributor to the mean and spread in net cloud feedback. The importance of the negative optical depth feedback relative to the amount feedback at high latitudes is even more marked than in earlier models. The authors show that the negative longwave cloud adjustment inferred in previous studies is primarily caused by a 1.3 W m−2 cloud masking of CO2 forcing. Properly accounting for cloud masking increases net cloud feedback by 0.3 W m−2 K−1, whereas accounting for rapid adjustments reduces by 0.14 W m−2 K−1 the ensemble mean net cloud feedback through a combination of smaller positive cloud amount and altitude feedbacks and larger negative optical depth feedbacks.

Impact of different El Niño types on the El Niño/IOD relationship

Previous studies reported that positive phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) tend to accompany El Niño during boreal autumn. Here we show that the El Niño/IOD relationship can be better understood when considering the two different El Niño flavors. Eastern-Pacific (EP) El Niño events exhibit a strong correlation with the IOD dependent on their magnitude. In contrast, the relationship between Central-Pacific (CP) El Niño events and the IOD depends mainly on the zonal location of the sea surface temperature anomalies rather than their magnitude. CP El Niño events lying further west than normal are not accompanied by significant anomalous easterlies over the eastern Indian Ocean along the Java/Sumatra coast, which is unfavorable for the local Bjerknes feedback and correspondingly for an IOD development. The El Niño/IOD relationship has experienced substantial changes due to the recent decadal El Niño regime shift, which has important implications for seasonal prediction.

COCO-2: a model to assess the economic impact of an accident

COCO-2 is a model for assessing the potential economic costs likely to arise off-site following an accident at a nuclear reactor. COCO-2 builds on work presented in the model COCO-1 developed in 1991 by considering economic effects in more detail, and by including more sources of loss. Of particular note are: the consideration of the directly affected local economy, indirect losses that stem from the directly affected businesses, losses due to changes in tourism consumption, integration with the large body of work on recovery after an accident and a more systematic approach to health costs. The work, where possible, is based on official data sources for reasons of traceability, maintenance and ease of future development. This report describes the methodology and discusses the results of an example calculation. Guidance on how the base economic data can be updated in the future is also provided.

Tales of the unexpected: research discoveries that occurred by accident

Data from four experimental research projects are presented which have in common that unexpected results caused a change in direction of the research. A plant growth accelerator caused the appearance of white black bean aphids, a synthetic pyrethroid suspected of enhancing aphid reproduction proved to enhance plant growth, a chance conversation with a colleague initiated a search for fungal DNA in aphids, and the accidental invasion of aphid cultures by a parasitoid reversed the aphid population ranking of two Brussels sprout cultivars. This last result led to a whole series of studies on the plant odour preferences of emerging parasitoids which in turn revealed the unexpected phenomenon that chemical cues to the maternal host plant are left with the eggs at oviposition. It is pointed out that, too often, researchers fail to follow up unexpected results because they resist accepting flaws in their hypotheses; also that current application criteria for research funding make it hard to accommodate unexpected findings.

Big data: a normal accident waiting to happen?

Widespread commercial use of the internet has significantly increased the volume and scope of data being collected by organisations. ‘Big data’ has emerged as a term to encapsulate both the technical and commercial aspects of this growing data collection activity. To date, much of the discussion of big data has centred upon its transformational potential for innovation and efficiency, yet there has been less reflection on its wider implications beyond commercial value creation. This paper builds upon normal accident theory (NAT) to analyse the broader ethical implications of big data. It argues that the strategies behind big data require organisational systems that leave them vulnerable to normal accidents, that is to say some form of accident or disaster that is both unanticipated and inevitable. Whilst NAT has previously focused on the consequences of physical accidents, this paper suggests a new form of system accident that we label data accidents. These have distinct, less tangible and more complex characteristics and raise significant questions over the role of individual privacy in a ‘data society’. The paper concludes by considering the ways in which the risks of such data accidents might be managed or mitigated.