Forecasting VaR using analytic higher moments for GARCH processes

It is widely accepted that some of the most accurate Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates are based on an appropriately specified GARCH process. But when the forecast horizon is greater than the frequency of the GARCH model, such predictions have typically required time-consuming simulations of the aggregated returns distributions. This paper shows that fast, quasi-analytic GARCH VaR calculations can be based on new formulae for the first four moments of aggregated GARCH returns. Our extensive empirical study compares the Cornish–Fisher expansion with the Johnson SU distribution for fitting distributions to analytic moments of normal and Student t, symmetric and asymmetric (GJR) GARCH processes to returns data on different financial assets, for the purpose of deriving accurate GARCH VaR forecasts over multiple horizons and significance levels.

The competition–performance relation: a meta-analytic review and test of the opposing processes model of competition and performance

What is the relation between competition and performance? The present research addresses this important multidisciplinary question by conducting a meta-analysis of existing empirical work and by proposing a new conceptual model—the opposing processes model of competition and performance. This model was tested by conducting an additional meta-analysis and 3 new empirical studies. The first meta-analysis revealed that there is no noteworthy relation between competition and performance. The second meta-analysis showed, in accord with the opposing processes model, that the absence of a direct effect is the result of inconsistent mediation via achievement goals: Competition prompts performance-approach goals which, in turn, facilitate performance; and competition also prompts performance-avoidance goals which, in turn, undermine performance. These same direct and mediational findings were also observed in the 3 new empirical studies (using 3 different conceptualizations of competition and attending to numerous control variables). Our findings provide both interpretational clarity regarding past research and conceptual guidance regarding future research on the competition–performance relation.

Forgetting as a consequence of retrieval: a meta-analytic review of retrieval-induced forgetting

Retrieving a subset of items can cause the forgetting of other items, a phenomenon referred to as retrieval-induced forgetting. According to some theorists, retrieval-induced forgetting is the consequence of an inhibitory mechanism that acts to reduce the accessibility of non-target items that interfere with the retrieval of target items. Other theorists argue that inhibition is unnecessary to account for retrieval-induced forgetting, contending instead that the phenomenon can be best explained by non-inhibitory mechanisms, such as strength-based competition or blocking. The current paper provides the first major meta-analysis of retrieval-induced forgetting, conducted with the primary purpose of quantitatively evaluating the multitude of findings that have been used to contrast these two theoretical viewpoints. The results largely supported inhibition accounts, but also provided some challenging evidence, with the nature of the results often varying as a function of how retrieval-induced forgetting was assessed. Implications for further research and theory development are discussed.

Letters in cognitive analytic therapy: The patient's experience

Patient perspectives on how therapeutic letters contributed to their experience of cognitive analytic therapy (CAT) were investigated. Eight patients took part in semistructured interviews. A grounded, thematic analysis of their accounts suggested four general processes. First, letters offered a tangible, lasting framework for the assimilation of a new perspective about themselves and their relationships and facilitated coping with a complex range of emotions and risks this awareness required. Second, they demonstrated therapists’ commitment to patients’ growth. Third, they helped to teach participants about the therapy process as an example of an interpersonal exchange. Fourth, they helped participants consider how they wished to share personal information. These data offer a more complex understanding of this standard CAT intervention. Although some findings are consistent with CAT theory, the range of emotional dilemmas associated with letters has not received specific attention. Clinical implications are discussed.