Global scale water stages from SAR imagery (GlosSARi) to support global flood forecasting

Despite the success of studies attempting to integrate remotely sensed data and flood modelling and the need to provide near-real time data routinely on a global scale as well as setting up online data archives, there is to date a lack of spatially and temporally distributed hydraulic parameters to support ongoing efforts in modelling. Therefore, the objective of this project is to provide a global evaluation and benchmark data set of floodplain water stages with uncertainties and assimilation in a large scale flood model using space-borne radar imagery. An algorithm is developed for automated retrieval of water stages with uncertainties from a sequence of radar imagery and data are assimilated in a flood model using the Tewkesbury 2007 flood event as a feasibility study. The retrieval method that we employ is based on possibility theory which is an extension of fuzzy sets and that encompasses probability theory. In our case we first attempt to identify main sources of uncertainty in the retrieval of water stages from radar imagery for which we define physically meaningful ranges of parameter values. Possibilities of values are then computed for each parameter using a triangular ‘membership’ function. This procedure allows the computation of possible values of water stages at maximum flood extents along a river at many different locations. At a later stage in the project these data are then used in assimilation, calibration or validation of a flood model. The application is subsequently extended to a global scale using wide swath radar imagery and a simple global flood forecasting model thereby providing improved river discharge estimates to update the latter.

Calculating the exclusion probability and paternity index for X-chromosomal loci in the presence of substructure

There has been recent interest in the use of X-chromosomal loci for forensic and relatedness testing casework, with many authors developing new X-linked short tandem repeat (STR) loci suitable for forensic use. Here we present formulae for two key quantities in paternity testing, the average probability of exclusion and the paternity index, which are suitable for Xchromosomal loci in the presence of population substructure.

A jackknife variance estimator for unequal probability sampling

The jackknife method is often used for variance estimation in sample surveys but has only been developed for a limited class of sampling designs.We propose a jackknife variance estimator which is defined for any without-replacement unequal probability sampling design. We demonstrate design consistency of this estimator for a broad class of point estimators. A Monte Carlo study shows how the proposed estimator may improve on existing estimators.

Modification of hemicellulose content by antisense down-regulation of UDP-glucuronate decarboxylase in tobacco and its consequences for cellulose extractability

Extractability and recovery of cellulose from cell walls influences many industrial processes and also the utilisation of biomass for energy purposes. The utility of genetic manipulation of lignin has proven potential for optimising such processes and is also advantageous for the environment. Hemicelluloses, particularly secondary wall xylans, also influence the extractability of cellulose. UDP-glucuronate decarboxylase produces UDP-xylose, the precursor for xylans and the effect of its down-regulation on cell wall structure and cellulose extractability in transgenic tobacco has been investigated. Since there are a number of potential UDP-glucuronate decarboxylase genes, a 490 bp sequence of high similarity between members of the family, was chosen for general alteration of the expression of the gene family. Sense and antisense transgenic lines were analysed for enzyme activity using a modified and optimised electrophoretic assay, for enzyme levels by western blotting and for secondary cell wall composition. Some of the down-regulated antisense plants showed high glucose to xylose ratios in xylem walls due to less xylose-containing polymers, while arabinose and uronic acid contents, which could also have been affected by any change in UDP-xylose provision, were unchanged. The overall morphology and stem lignin content of the modified lines remained little changed compared with wild-type. However, there were some changes in vascular organisation and reduction of xylans in the secondary walls was confirmed by immunocytochemistry. Pulping analysis showed a decreased pulp yield and a higher Kappa number in some lines compared with controls, indicating that they were less delignified, although the level of residual alkali was reduced. Such traits probably indicate that lignin was less available for removal in a reduced background of xylans. However, the viscosity was higher in most antisense lines, meaning that the cellulose was less broken-down during the pulping process. This is one of the first studies of a directed manipulation of hemicellulose content on cellulose extractability and shows both positive and negative outcomes.

Modification of hemicellulose content by antisense down-regulation of UDP-glucuronate decarboxylase in tobacco and its conscequence for cellulose extractability

Extractability and recovery of cellulose from cell walls influences many industrial processes and also the utilisation of biomass for energy purposes. The utility of genetic manipulation of lignin has proven potential for optimising such processes and is also advantageous for the environment. Hemicelluloses, particularly secondary wall xylans, also influence the extractability of cellulose. UDP-glucuronate decarboxylase produces UDP-xylose, the precursor for xylans and the effect of its down-regulation on cell wall structure and cellulose extractability in transgenic tobacco has been investigated. Since there are a number of potential UDP-glucuronate decarboxylase genes, a 490 bp sequence of high similarity between members of the family, was chosen for general alteration of the expression of the gene family. Sense and antisense transgenic lines were analysed for enzyme activity using a modified and optimised electrophoretic assay, for enzyme levels by western blotting and for secondary cell wall composition. Some of the down-regulated antisense plants showed high glucose to xylose ratios in xylem walls due to less xylose-containing polymers, while arabinose and uronic acid contents, which could also have been affected by any change in UDP-xylose provision, were unchanged. The overall morphology and stem lignin content of the modified lines remained little changed compared with wild-type. However, there were some changes in vascular organisation and reduction of xylans in the secondary walls was confirmed by immunocytochemistry. Pulping analysis showed a decreased pulp yield and a higher Kappa number in some lines compared with controls, indicating that they were less delignified, although the level of residual alkali was reduced. Such traits probably indicate that lignin was less available for removal in a reduced background of xylans. However, the viscosity was higher in most antisense lines, meaning that the cellulose was less broken-down during the pulping process. This is one of the first studies of a directed manipulation of hemicellulose content on cellulose extractability and shows both positive and negative outcomes.

API-CALC 1.0: a computer program for calculating the average probability of identity allowing for substructure, inbreeding and the presence of close relatives

Individual identification via DNA profiling is important in molecular ecology, particularly in the case of noninvasive sampling. A key quantity in determining the number of loci required is the probability of identity (PIave), the probability of observing two copies of any profile in the population. Previously this has been calculated assuming no inbreeding or population structure. Here we introduce formulae that account for these factors, whilst also accounting for relatedness structure in the population. These formulae are implemented in API-CALC 1.0, which calculates PIave for either a specified value, or a range of values, for F-IS and F-ST.

The measurement of maternal plasma corticotropin-releasing factor (CRF) and CRF-binding protein improves the early prediction of preeclampsia

In the present study we measured maternal plasma concentrations of two placental neurohormones, corticotropin-releasing factor (CRF) and CRF-binding protein (CRF-BP), in 58 at-risk pregnant women consecutively enrolled between 28 and 29 wk of pregnancy to evaluate whether their evaluation may predict third trimester-onset preeclampsia ( PE). The statistical significance was assessed by t test. The cut-off points for defining altered CRF and CRF-BP levels for prediction of PE were chosen by receiving operator characteristics curve analysis, and the probability of developing PE was calculated for several combinations of hormone testing results. CRF and CRF-BP levels were significantly ( both P < 0.0001) higher and lower, respectively, in the patients (n = 20) who later developed PE than in those who did not present PE at follow-up. CRF at the cut-off 425.95 pmol/liter achieved a sensitivity of 94.8% and a specificity of 96.9%, whereas CRF-BP at the cut-off 125.8 nmol/liter combined a sensitivity of 92.5% and a specificity of 82.5% as single markers for prediction of PE. The probability of PE was 34.5% in the whole study population, 93.75% when both CRF and CRF-BP levels were changed, and 0% if both hormone markers were unaltered. The measurement of CRF and CRF-BP levels may add significant prognostic information for predicting PE in at-risk pregnant women.

Effects of high pressure on functional properties of soy protein

Simultaneous measurement of the effects of low soy protein concentration, pH and high pressure treatment at room temperature on solubility, emulsifying properties and rheological properties (loss modulus, G '') of soy protein isolate (SPI) were evaluated. Central composite rotatable designs (2(3)) were employed over two pH ranges (2.66-4.34 and 5.16-6.84) with SPI concentration (0.32-3.68%) and pressure (198-702 MPa) as the other independent variables. The surface responses were obtained for protein solubility, emulsifying activity index (EAI) and G ''. The samples with the highest effect on protein solubility, EAI and G '' values were evaluated, as well, by electrophoresis and free sulphydryl determination. The pH was the main factor that affected protein solubility, with solubility at a maximum at pH < 3 or pH > 6. Increasing SPI concentration and decreasing/increasing the pH away from the isoelectric point both caused a reduction in EAI. Loss modulus (G '') was found to increase with SPI concentration in both pH ranges. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probability density function estimation using orthogonal forward regression

Using the classical Parzen window estimate as the target function, the kernel density estimation is formulated as a regression problem and the orthogonal forward regression technique is adopted to construct sparse kernel density estimates. The proposed algorithm incrementally minimises a leave-one-out test error score to select a sparse kernel model, and a local regularisation method is incorporated into the density construction process to further enforce sparsity. The kernel weights are finally updated using the multiplicative nonnegative quadratic programming algorithm, which has the ability to reduce the model size further. Except for the kernel width, the proposed algorithm has no other parameters that need tuning, and the user is not required to specify any additional criterion to terminate the density construction procedure. Two examples are used to demonstrate the ability of this regression-based approach to effectively construct a sparse kernel density estimate with comparable accuracy to that of the full-sample optimised Parzen window density estimate.

Expression and regulation of 80K/MARCKS, a major substrate of protein kinase C, in the developing rat heart

Objective: Protein kinase C (PKC) plays a pivotal role in modulating the growth and differentiation of many cell types including the cardiac myocyte. However, little is known about molecules that act immediately downstream of PKC in the heart. In this study we have investigated the expression of 80K/MARCKS, a major PKC substrate, in whole ventricles and in cardiac myocytes from developing rat hearts. Methods: Poly A+ RNA was prepared from neonatal (2-day) and adult (42-day) cardiac myocytes and whole ventricular tissue and mRNA expression determined by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) using primers designed to identify a 420 bp fragment in the 80K/MARCKS gene. Protein extracts were prepared from either 2-day and 42-day cardiac myocytes or from whole ventricular tissue at 2, 5–11, 14, 17, 21, 28 and 42 days of age. Protein expression was determined by immunoblotting with an 80K/MARCKS antipeptide antibody and PKC activity was determined by measuring the amount of γ32P-ATP transferred to a specific peptide substrate. Results: RT-PCR analysis of 80K/MARCKS mRNA in neonatal (2-day) and adult (42-day) cardiac myocytes showed the expression of this gene in both cell types. Immunoblotting revealed maximum 80K/MARCKS protein expression in whole ventricular tissue at 5 days (a 75% increase above values at 2 days), followed by a transient decrease in expression during the 6–8-day period (61% of the protein expressed at 2 days for 8-day tissue) with levels returning to 5 day levels by 11 days of age. 80K/MARCKS protein was present in cardiac myocytes at 2 days of age whereas it was not detectable in adult cells. In addition, PKC activity levels increased to 160% of levels present at 2 days in 8-day-old ventricles with PKC activity levels returning to 5-day levels by 9 days of age. This was then followed by a steady decline in both 80K/MARCKS protein expression and PKC activity through to adulthood. Conclusions: Expression of the PKC substrate, 80K/MARCKS, in cardiac myocytes changes significantly during development and the transient loss of immunoreactive protein during the 6–8-day developmental period may reflect 80K/MARCKS phosphorylation and subsequent down-regulation as a result of the concomitant up-regulation of PKC activity at this time.

Probability density estimation with tunable kernels using orthogonal forward regression

A generalized or tunable-kernel model is proposed for probability density function estimation based on an orthogonal forward regression procedure. Each stage of the density estimation process determines a tunable kernel, namely, its center vector and diagonal covariance matrix, by minimizing a leave-one-out test criterion. The kernel mixing weights of the constructed sparse density estimate are finally updated using the multiplicative nonnegative quadratic programming algorithm to ensure the nonnegative and unity constraints, and this weight-updating process additionally has the desired ability to further reduce the model size. The proposed tunable-kernel model has advantages, in terms of model generalization capability and model sparsity, over the standard fixed-kernel model that restricts kernel centers to the training data points and employs a single common kernel variance for every kernel. On the other hand, it does not optimize all the model parameters together and thus avoids the problems of high-dimensional ill-conditioned nonlinear optimization associated with the conventional finite mixture model. Several examples are included to demonstrate the ability of the proposed novel tunable-kernel model to effectively construct a very compact density estimate accurately.