Palaeobiology of the medieval population of Albano (Rome, Italy): a combined morphological and biomolecular approach

Recent years have seen increased interest in skeletal populations from the Imperial Roman Age in Italy, but much less is known about diet and standards of living in the subsequent medieval period. To fill this gap, we conducted a morphological analysis of human remains from Albano, an Italian town near Rome, as well as a stable isotope analysis of bone collagen to reconstruct diet. The sample was recovered from a Medieval cemetery (1040–1220 cal. yr. BP) located in the gardens of the historical Palazzo Doria Pamphili in Albano. A minimum number of 40 individuals (31 adults and 9 sub-adults) were examined using standard methods. Though the general health status of the population was good, signs of cribra orbitalia and diffuse enthesopathies were noted during the morphological examination. Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses of the bone collagen from 24 adult humans and three faunal bones indicate that the diet of the population may be described as predominantly terrestrial and C3-plant based although the data for some of the individuals suggest a modest consumption of C4-(millet) based or aquatic proteins. No evidence of significant dietary differences between the sexes was found. The comparison of the isotope data from Albano with those from populations recovered in the same region is consistent with a shift from a terrestrial, possibly plant foods-dominated subsistence in the Early Middle Ages to a diet with a higher contribution from animal proteins, both terrestrial and aquatic, in the Later Middle Ages.

Real-time forecasting of inflation and output growth with autoregressive models in the presence of data revisions

We examine how the accuracy of real-time forecasts from models that include autoregressive terms can be improved by estimating the models on ‘lightly revised’ data instead of using data from the latest-available vintage. The benefits of estimating autoregressive models on lightly revised data are related to the nature of the data revision process and the underlying process for the true values. Empirically, we find improvements in root mean square forecasting error of 2–4% when forecasting output growth and inflation with univariate models, and of 8% with multivariate models. We show that multiple-vintage models, which explicitly model data revisions, require large estimation samples to deliver competitive forecasts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Networks and plant disease management: concepts and applications

A network is a natural structure with which to describe many aspects of a plant pathosystem. The article seeks to set out in a nonmathematical way some of the network concepts that promise to be useful in managing plant disease. The field has been stimulated by developments designed to help understand and manage animal and human disease, as well as by technical infrastructures, such as the internet. It overlaps partly with landscape ecology. The study of networks has helped identify likely ways to reduce flow of disease in traded plants, to find the best sites to monitor as warning sites for annually reinvading disease, and to understand the fundamentals of how a pathogen spreads in different structures. A tension between the free flow of goods or species down communication channels and free flow of pathogens down the same pathways is highlighted.

The solsticial pause on Mars: 2 modelling and investigation of causes

The martian solsticial pause, presented in a companion paper (Lewis et al., this issue), was investigated further through a series of model runs using the UK version of the LMD/UK Mars Global Climate Model. It was found that the pause could not be adequately reproduced if radiatively active water ice clouds were omitted from the model. When clouds were used, along with a realistic time-dependent dust opacity distribution, a substantial minimum in near-surface transient eddy activity formed around solstice in both hemispheres. The net effect of the clouds in the model is, by altering the thermal structure of the atmosphere, to decrease the vertical shear of the westerly jet near the surface around solstice, and thus reduce baroclinic growth rates. A similar effect was seen under conditions of large dust loading, implying that northern midlatitude eddy activity will tend to become suppressed after a period of intense flushing storm formation around the northern cap edge. Suppression of baroclinic eddy generation by the barotropic component of the flow and via diabatic eddy dissipation were also investigated as possible mechanisms leading to the formation of the solsticial pause but were found not to make major contributions. Zonal variations in topography were found to be important, as their presence results in weakened transient eddies around winter solstice in both hemispheres, through modification of the near-surface flow. The zonal topographic asymmetry appears to be the primary reason for the weakness of eddy activity in the southern hemisphere relative to the northern hemisphere, and the ultimate cause of the solsticial pause in both hemispheres. The meridional topographic gradient was found to exert a much weaker influence on near-surface transient eddies.

Unwriting food labels: discursive challenges in the regulation of package claims

This article examines the challenges resulting from the regulation of written discourse on food packages. It uses as a case study Hong Kong’s strict new food-labeling law that requires distributers and retailers to remove certain nutritional claims from packages of imported food before they sell them. This practice of redacting unlawful text on packages requires that distributers and retailers engage in complex processes of discursive reasoning, and it some- times results in packages that are difficult for customers to interpret. The case study highlights important issues in the regulation of commercial texts concerning collaboration, intertextuality, and the conflicts that can arise when the principals, authors, and animators of such texts have different agendas.

Proper evaluation of the external convective heat transfer for the thermal analysis of cool roofs

Cool materials are characterized by high solar reflectance and high thermal emittance; when applied to the external surface of a roof, they make it possible to limit the amount of solar irradiance absorbed by the roof, and to increase the rate of heat flux emitted by irradiation to the environment, especially during nighttime. However, a roof also releases heat by convection on its external surface; this mechanism is not negligible, and an incorrect evaluation of its entity might introduce significant inaccuracy in the assessment of the thermal performance of a cool roof, in terms of surface temperature and rate of heat flux transferred to the indoors. This issue is particularly relevant in numerical simulations, which are essential in the design stage, therefore it deserves adequate attention. In the present paper, a review of the most common algorithms used for the calculation of the convective heat transfer coefficient due to wind on horizontal building surfaces is presented. Then, with reference to a case study in Italy, the simulated results are compared to the outcomes of a measurement campaign. Hence, the most appropriate algorithms for the convective coefficient are identified, and the errors deriving by an incorrect selection of this coefficient are discussed.