Cross-correlations and cross-bicorrelations in Sterling exchange rates

This paper proposes two new tests for linear and nonlinear lead/lag relationships between time series based on the concepts of cross-correlations and cross-bicorrelations, respectively. The tests are then applied to a set of Sterling-denominated exchange rates. Our analysis indicates that there existed periods during the post-Bretton Woods era where the temporal relationship between different exchange rates was strong, although these periods have become less frequent over the past 20 years. In particular, our results demonstrate the episodic nature of the nonlinearity, and have implications for the speed of flow of information between financial series. The method generalises recently proposed tests for nonlinearity to the multivariate context.

Social communication deficits: specific associations with Social Anxiety Disorder

Background Social communication deficits are prevalent amongst children with anxiety disorders; however whether they are over-represented specifically among children with Social Anxiety Disorder has not been examined. This study set out to examine social communication deficits among children with Social Anxiety Disorder in comparison to children with other forms of anxiety disorder. Methods Parents of 404 children with a diagnosed anxiety disorder completed the Social Communication Questionnaire (SCQ; Rutter, M., Bailey, A., Lord, C., 2003. The Social Communication Questionnaire – Manual. Western Psychological Services, Los Angeles, CA). Children with a diagnosis of Social Anxiety Disorder (n=262) and anxious children without Social Anxiety Disorder (n=142) were compared on SCQ total and subscale scores and the frequency of participants scoring above clinical cut-offs. Results Children with Social Anxiety Disorder scored significantly higher than anxious children without Social Anxiety Disorder on the SCQ total (t(352)=4.85, p<.001, d=.55, r=.27), Reciprocal Social Interaction (t(351)=4.73, p<.001, d=.55, r=.27), communication (t(344)=3.62, p<.001, d=.43, r=.21) and repetitive, restrictive and stereotyped behaviors subscales (t(353)=3.15, p=.002, d=.37, r=.18). Furthermore, children with Social Anxiety Disorder were three times more likely to score above clinical cut-offs. Limitations The participants were a relatively affluent group of predominantly non-minority status. The social communication difficulties measure relied on parental report which could be influenced by extraneous factors. Conclusions Treatments for Social Anxiety Disorder may benefit from a specific focus on developing social communication skills. Future research using objective assessments of underlying social communication skills is required.

Effect of milk type and processing on iodine concentration of organic and conventional winter milk at retail: implications for nutrition

Milk is the largest source of iodine in UK diets and an earlier study showed that organic summer milk had significantly lower iodine concentration than conventional milk. There are no comparable studies with winter milk or the effect of milk fat class or heat processing method. Two retail studies with winter milk are reported. Study 1 showed no effect of fat class but organic milk was 32.2% lower in iodine than conventional milk (404 vs. 595 μg/L; P < 0.001). Study 2 found no difference between conventional and Channel Island milk but organic milk contained 35.5% less iodine than conventional milk (474 vs. 306 μg/L; P < 0.001). UHT and branded organic milk also had lower iodine concentrations than conventional milk (331 μg/L; P < 0.001 and 268 μg/L: P < 0.0001 respectively). The results indicate that replacement of conventional milk by organic or UHT milk will increase the risk of sub-optimal iodine status especially for pregnant/lactating women.

Faith and protection: the construction of hope by parents of children with leukemia and their oncologists

Background. Oncologists are criticized for fostering unrealistic hope in patients and families, but criticisms reflect a perspective that is oversimplified and “expert” guidance that is ambiguous or impractical. Our aim was to understand how pediatric oncologists manage parents' hope in practice and to evaluate how they address parents' needs. Methods. Participants were 53 parents and 12 oncologists whom they consulted across six U.K. centers. We audio recorded consultations approximately 1–2, 6, and 12 months after diagnosis. Parents were interviewed after each consultation to elicit their perspectives on the consultation and clinical relationship. Transcripts of consultations and interviews were analyzed qualitatively. Results. Parents needed hope in order to function effectively in the face of despair, and all wanted the oncologists to help them be hopeful. Most parents focused hope on the short term. They therefore needed oncologists to be authoritative in taking responsibility for the child's long-term survival while cushioning parents from information about longer-term uncertainties and being positive in providing information about short-term progress. A few parents who could not fully trust their oncologist were unable to hope. Conclusion. Oncologists' pivotal role in sustaining hope was one that parents gave them. Most parents' “faith” in the oncologist allowed them to set aside, rather than deny, their fears about survival while investing their hopes in short-term milestones. Oncologists' behavior generally matched parents' needs, contradicting common criticisms of oncologists. Nevertheless, oncologists need to identify and address the difficulty that some parents have in fully trusting the oncologist and, consequently, being hopeful.