Dissecting the illegal ivory trade: an analysis of ivory seizures data

Reliable evidence of trends in the illegal ivory trade is important for informing decision making for elephants but it is difficult to obtain due to the covert nature of the trade. The Elephant Trade Information System, a global database of reported seizures of illegal ivory, holds the only extensive information on illicit trade available. However inherent biases in seizure data make it difficult to infer trends; countries differ in their ability to make and report seizures and these differences cannot be directly measured. We developed a new modelling framework to provide quantitative evidence on trends in the illegal ivory trade from seizures data. The framework used Bayesian hierarchical latent variable models to reduce bias in seizures data by identifying proxy variables that describe the variability in seizure and reporting rates between countries and over time. Models produced bias-adjusted smoothed estimates of relative trends in illegal ivory activity for raw and worked ivory in three weight classes. Activity is represented by two indicators describing the number of illegal ivory transactions--Transactions Index--and the total weight of illegal ivory transactions--Weights Index--at global, regional or national levels. Globally, activity was found to be rapidly increasing and at its highest level for 16 years, more than doubling from 2007 to 2011 and tripling from 1998 to 2011. Over 70% of the Transactions Index is from shipments of worked ivory weighing less than 10 kg and the rapid increase since 2007 is mainly due to increased consumption in China. Over 70% of the Weights Index is from shipments of raw ivory weighing at least 100 kg mainly moving from Central and East Africa to Southeast and East Asia. The results tie together recent findings on trends in poaching rates, declining populations and consumption and provide detailed evidence to inform international decision making on elephants.

Plasma free fatty acids do not provide the link between obesity and insulin resistance or β-cell dysfunction: results of the Reading, Imperial, Surrey, Cambridge, Kings (RISCK) study

Aims To investigate the relationship between adiposity and plasma free fatty acid levels and the influence of total plasma free fatty acid level on insulin sensitivity and β-cell function. Methods An insulin sensitivity index, acute insulin response to glucose and a disposition index, derived from i.v. glucose tolerance minimal model analysis and total fasting plasma free fatty acid levels were available for 533 participants in the Reading, Imperial, Surrey, Cambridge, Kings study. Bivariate correlations were made between insulin sensitivity index, acute insulin response to glucose and disposition index and both adiposity measures (BMI, waist circumference and body fat mass) and total plasma free fatty acid levels. Multivariate linear regression analysis was performed, controlling for age, sex, ethnicity and adiposity. Results After adjustment, all adiposity measures were inversely associated with insulin sensitivity index (BMI: β = −0.357; waist circumference: β = −0.380; body fat mass: β = −0.375) and disposition index (BMI: β = −0.215; waist circumference: β = −0.248; body fat mass: β = −0.221) and positively associated with acute insulin response to glucose [BMI: β = 0.200; waist circumference: β = 0.195; body fat mass β = 0.209 (P values <0.001)]. Adiposity explained 13, 4 and 5% of the variation in insulin sensitivity index, acute insulin response to glucose and disposition index, respectively. After adjustment, no adiposity measure was associated with free fatty acid level, but total plasma free fatty acid level was inversely associated with insulin sensitivity index (β = −0.133), acute insulin response to glucose (β = −0.148) and disposition index [β = −0.218 (P values <0.01)]. Plasma free fatty acid concentration accounted for 1.5, 2 and 4% of the variation in insulin sensitivity index, acute insulin response to glucose and disposition index, respectively. Conclusions Plasma free fatty acid levels have a modest negative association with insulin sensitivity, β-cell secretion and disposition index but no association with adiposity measures. It is unlikely that plasma free fatty acids are the primary mediators of obesity-related insulin resistance or β-cell dysfunction.

Online persuasion for e-commerce websites

The persuasive design of e-commerce websites has been shown to support people with online purchases. Therefore, it is important to understand how persuasive applications are used and assimilated into e-commerce website designs. This paper demonstrates how the PSD model’s persuasive features could be used to build a bridge supporting the extraction and evaluation of persuasive features in such e-commerce websites; thus practically explaining how feature implementation can enhance website persuasiveness. To support a deeper understanding of persuasive e-commerce website design, this research, using the Persuasive Systems Design (PSD) model, identifies the distinct persuasive features currently assimilated in ten successful e-commerce websites. The results revealed extensive use of persuasive features; particularly features related to dialogue support, credibility support, and primary task support; thus highlighting weaknesses in the implementation of social support features. In conclusion we suggest possible ways for enhancing persuasive feature implementation via appropriate contextual examples and explanation.

Effective interventions: 25 years outside the mainstream

25 years ago when the Durham conferences were in full swing, I presented results of investigations on language and behaviour in autism. I tentatively proposed that early language in autism might tell us about the cognitive skills of people with ASD and the behaviour might lead to greater understanding of which brain systems might be affected. In this presentation, I will update these topics and present a summary of other work I have been involved with in attempting to improve the lives of people with autism and their families. Data on three people with autism at the early stages of speech development showed an unusual pattern of learning colour and number names early. One possibility was that this skill represented a sign of weak central coherence – they only attended to one dimension. Colleagues of mine were equally puzzled so we tried to find out if my results could be replicated – they were not (see Schafer, Williams & Smith, 2014). Instead we found this pattern was also seen in Down Syndrome, but that early vocabulary in autism was associated with low Colorado Meaningfulness at least in comprehension. The Colorado Meaningfulness of a word is a measure of how many words can be associated with it and often involve extensive use of context. Our data suggest that the number of contexts in which a particular word can appear has a role in determining vocabulary in ASD which is consistent with the weak central coherence theory of autism. In the course of this work I also came across a group of young people with autism who appeared to have a written vocabulary but not a spoken one. It seems possible that print might be a medium of communication when speech is not. Repetitive behaviour in autism remains a mystery. We can use functional analysis to determine why the behaviour occurs, but a worryingly large percentage of behaviours are described as being internally driven or sensory reinforced. What does that mean in terms of brain activity – could it be system analogous to epilepsy, where brain activity becomes inappropriately synchronised? At the moment I cannot claim to have solved this problem, but if sensation is a driver then sensory interventions should make a difference. Data from a recent study will be presented to suggest that for some individuals this is the case. Social behaviour remains the key however, and it remains to be seen whether it is possible for social behaviour to be aided. One route that has potential is direct teaching of skills through drama and working with others who do not have social difficulties of the same type. The picture is complicated by changes in social skills with age and experience, but the failure of people with ASD to interact when in settings of social contact is little researched.

Power and control: managing agents for international student recruitment in higher education

This multiple case-based study investigates the relationship between recruiting agents and the UK universities who act as their principals. The current extensive use of agents in UK higher education may be seen as an indicator of the financial impact made by international students. The study analyses the practice of agent management and explores the manner in which power and control interact. The study employed semi-structured interviews and group discussions involving up to 6 respondents from each of the 20 UK case institutions. The qualitative data reveal a considerable variation in the manner in which the universities manage their agency relationships. Through the joint consideration of control measures and use of power, five distinctive approaches have been identified. The study also reveals that over-dependence on agents reduces the power of the principal, and consequently, the principal’s ability to exercise control, particularly in highly competitive global and national markets.

Comparison of in vivo and in vitro digestion on polyphenol composition in lingonberries: potential impact on colonic health

The composition of polyphenols in ileal fluid samples obtained from an ileostomy subject after lingonberry intake was compared with lingonberry extracts obtained after simulated in vitro digestion (IVDL) and subsequent faecal fermentation (IVFL). HPLC-PDA-MS/MS analysis confirmed similar patterns of lingonberry (poly)phenolic metabolism after the in vivo and in vitro digestion, with reduced recovery of anthocyanins and a similar pattern of recovery for proanthocyanidins observed for both methods of digestion. On the other hand, the IVFL sample contained none of the original (poly)phenolic components but was enriched in simple aromatic components. Digested and fermented extracts exhibited significant (P < 0.05) anti-genotoxic (Comet assay), anti-mutagenic (Mutation Frequency assay), and anti-invasive (Matrigel Invasion assay) effects in human cell culture models of colorectal cancer at physiologically-relevant doses (0-50 μg/mL gallic acid equivalents). The ileal fluid induced significant anti-genotoxic activity (P < 0.05), but at a higher concentration (200 μg/mL gallic acid equivalents) than the IVDL. Despite extensive structural modification following digestion and fermentation, lingonberry extracts retained their bioactivity in vitro. This reinforces the need for studies to consider the impact of digestion when investigating bioactivity of dietary phytochemicals.

A study on the sensitivities of simulated aerosol optical properties to composition and size distribution using airborne measurements

We present a flexible framework to calculate the optical properties of atmospheric aerosols at a given relative humidity based on their composition and size distribution. The similarity of this framework to climate model parameterisations allows rapid and extensive sensitivity tests of the impact of uncertainties in data or of new measurements on climate relevant aerosol properties. The data collected by the FAAM BAe-146 aircraft during the EUCAARI-LONGREX and VOCALS-REx campaigns have been used in a closure study to analyse the agreement between calculated and measured aerosol optical properties for two very different aerosol types. The agreement achieved for the EUCAARI-LONGREX flights is within the measurement uncertainties for both scattering and absorption. However, there is poor agreement between the calculated and the measured scattering for the VOCALS-REx flights. The high concentration of sulphate, which is a scattering aerosol with no absorption in the visible spectrum, made the absorption measurements during VOCALS-REx unreliable, and thus no closure study was possible for the absorption. The calculated hygroscopic scattering growth factor overestimates the measured values during EUCAARI-LONGREX and VOCALS-REx by ∼30% and ∼20%, respectively. We have also tested the sensitivity of the calculated aerosol optical properties to the uncertainties in the refractive indices, the hygroscopic growth factors and the aerosol size distribution. The largest source of uncertainty in the calculated scattering is the aerosol size distribution (∼35%), followed by the assumed hygroscopic growth factor for organic aerosol (∼15%), while the predominant source of uncertainty in the calculated absorption is the refractive index of organic aerosol (28–60%), although we would expect the refractive index of black carbon to be important for aerosol with a higher black carbon fraction.

'Looking at the Others': Oscar Wilde and the Reading Gaol Archive

In looking at Wilde and the prison, scholarship has understandably focussed on the lengthy and complex De Profundis, and how the prison experience confirmed or re-shaped Wilde as a writer and thinker. Wilde himself claimed to have been saved by the ‘others’ that he encountered in prison, and these ‘others’ have received scant attention. Who were they? How does a greater knowledge of them supplement our sense of the nineteenth-century prison and of Wilde? This essay looks closely at the Reading Gaol archive, tracing out the lives of some of those with whom Wilde was incarcerated and providing analyses of the prison population in Reading while Wilde was there. Aside from yielding the only known photographs of any of the young working-class men in whom Wilde took an interest, the essay seeks to build a more nuanced reading of Wilde's experience. Above all, the aim is to open out the meanings of the Wilde myth, and, in particular, to offer a more socially inclusive version.

Progress in observing and modelling the urban boundary layer

The urban boundary layer (UBL) is the part of the atmosphere in which most of the planet’s population now lives, and is one of the most complex and least understood microclimates. Given potential climate change impacts and the requirement to develop cities sustainably, the need for sound modelling and observational tools becomes pressing. This review paper considers progress made in studies of the UBL in terms of a conceptual framework spanning microscale to mesoscale determinants of UBL structure and evolution. Considerable progress in observing and modelling the urban surface energy balance has been made. The urban roughness sub-layer is an important region requiring attention as assumptions about atmospheric turbulence break down in this layer and it may dominate coupling of the surface to the UBL due to its considerable depth. The upper 90% of the UBL (mixed and residual layers) remains under-researched but new remote sensing methods and high resolution modelling tools now permit rapid progress. Surface heterogeneity dominates from neighbourhood to regional scales and should be more strongly considered in future studies. Specific research priorities include humidity within the UBL, high-rise urban canopies and the development of long-term, spatially extensive measurement networks coupled strongly to model development.

Gut permeability in autism spectrum disorders

Objective To test whether gut permeability is increased in autism spectrum disorders (ASD) by evaluating gut permeability in a population-derived cohort of children with ASD compared with age- and intelligence quotient-matched controls without ASD but with special educational needs (SEN). Patients and Methods One hundred thirty-three children aged 10–14 years, 103 with ASD and 30 with SEN, were given an oral test dose of mannitol and lactulose and urine collected for 6 hr. Gut permeability was assessed by measuring the urine lactulose/mannitol (L/M) recovery ratio by electrospray mass spectrometry-mass spectrometry. The ASD group was subcategorized for comparison into those without (n = 83) and with (n = 20) regression. Results There was no significant difference in L/M recovery ratio (mean (95% confidence interval)) between the groups with ASD: 0.015 (0.013–0.018), and SEN: 0.014 (0.009–0.019), nor in lactulose, mannitol, or creatinine recovery. No significant differences were observed in any parameter for the regressed versus non-regressed ASD groups. Results were consistent with previously published normal ranges. Eleven children (9/103 = 8.7% ASD and 2/30 = 6.7% SEN) had L/M recovery ratio > 0.03 (the accepted normal range cut-off), of whom two (one ASD and one SEN) had more definitely pathological L/M recovery ratios > 0.04. Conclusion There is no statistically significant group difference in small intestine permeability in a population cohort-derived group of children with ASD compared with a control group with SEN. Of the two children (one ASD and one SEN) with an L/M recovery ratio of > 0.04, one had undiagnosed asymptomatic celiac disease (ASD) and the other (SEN) past extensive surgery for gastroschisis.

An AeroCom assessment of black carbon in Arctic snow and sea ice

Though many global aerosols models prognose surface deposition, only a few models have been used to directly simulate the radiative effect from black carbon (BC) deposition to snow and sea ice. Here, we apply aerosol deposition fields from 25 models contributing to two phases of the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) project to simulate and evaluate within-snow BC concentrations and radiative effect in the Arctic. We accomplish this by driving the offline land and sea ice components of the Community Earth System Model with different deposition fields and meteorological conditions from 2004 to 2009, during which an extensive field campaign of BC measurements in Arctic snow occurred. We find that models generally underestimate BC concentrations in snow in northern Russia and Norway, while overestimating BC amounts elsewhere in the Arctic. Although simulated BC distributions in snow are poorly correlated with measurements, mean values are reasonable. The multi-model mean (range) bias in BC concentrations, sampled over the same grid cells, snow depths, and months of measurements, are −4.4 (−13.2 to +10.7) ng g−1 for an earlier phase of AeroCom models (phase I), and +4.1 (−13.0 to +21.4) ng g−1 for a more recent phase of AeroCom models (phase II), compared to the observational mean of 19.2 ng g−1. Factors determining model BC concentrations in Arctic snow include Arctic BC emissions, transport of extra-Arctic aerosols, precipitation, deposition efficiency of aerosols within the Arctic, and meltwater removal of particles in snow. Sensitivity studies show that the model–measurement evaluation is only weakly affected by meltwater scavenging efficiency because most measurements were conducted in non-melting snow. The Arctic (60–90° N) atmospheric residence time for BC in phase II models ranges from 3.7 to 23.2 days, implying large inter-model variation in local BC deposition efficiency. Combined with the fact that most Arctic BC deposition originates from extra-Arctic emissions, these results suggest that aerosol removal processes are a leading source of variation in model performance. The multi-model mean (full range) of Arctic radiative effect from BC in snow is 0.15 (0.07–0.25) W m−2 and 0.18 (0.06–0.28) W m−2 in phase I and phase II models, respectively. After correcting for model biases relative to observed BC concentrations in different regions of the Arctic, we obtain a multi-model mean Arctic radiative effect of 0.17 W m−2 for the combined AeroCom ensembles. Finally, there is a high correlation between modeled BC concentrations sampled over the observational sites and the Arctic as a whole, indicating that the field campaign provided a reasonable sample of the Arctic.