Continental shift? An analysis of convergence trends in European real estate equities

European economic and political integration have been recognised as having implications for patterns of performance in national real estate and capital markets and have generated a wide body of research and commentary. In 1999, progress towards monetary integration within the European Union culminated in the introduction of a common currency and monetary policy. This paper investigates the effects of this ‘event’ on the behaviour of stock returns in European real estate companies. A range of statistical tests is applied to the performance of European property companies to test for changes in segmentation, co-movement and causality. The results suggest that, relative to the wider equity markets, the dispersion of performance is higher, correlations are lower, a common contemporaneous factor has much lower explanatory power whilst lead-lag relationships are stronger. Consequently, the evidence of transmission of monetary integration to real estate securities is less noticeable than to general securities. Less and slower integration is attributed to the relatively small size of the real estate securities market and the local and national nature of the majority of the companies’ portfolios.

The impact of uncertainty in satellite data on the assessment of flood inundation models

The performance of flood inundation models is often assessed using satellite observed data; however these data have inherent uncertainty. In this study we assess the impact of this uncertainty when calibrating a flood inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP) for a flood event in December 2006 on the River Dee, North Wales, UK. The flood extent is delineated from an ERS-2 SAR image of the event using an active contour model (snake), and water levels at the flood margin calculated through intersection of the shoreline vector with LiDAR topographic data. Gauged water levels are used to create a reference water surface slope for comparison with the satellite-derived water levels. Residuals between the satellite observed data points and those from the reference line are spatially clustered into groups of similar values. We show that model calibration achieved using pattern matching of observed and predicted flood extent is negatively influenced by this spatial dependency in the data. By contrast, model calibration using water elevations produces realistic calibrated optimum friction parameters even when spatial dependency is present. To test the impact of removing spatial dependency a new method of evaluating flood inundation model performance is developed by using multiple random subsamples of the water surface elevation data points. By testing for spatial dependency using Moran’s I, multiple subsamples of water elevations that have no significant spatial dependency are selected. The model is then calibrated against these data and the results averaged. This gives a near identical result to calibration using spatially dependent data, but has the advantage of being a statistically robust assessment of model performance in which we can have more confidence. Moreover, by using the variations found in the subsamples of the observed data it is possible to assess the effects of observational uncertainty on the assessment of flooding risk.

The DigiBog model of peatland development 1: rationale, conceptual model, and hydrological basis

Using a literature review, we argue that new models of peatland development are needed. Many existing models do not account for potentially important ecohydrological feedbacks, and/or ignore spatial structure and heterogeneity. Existing models, including those that simulate a near total loss of the northern peatland carbon store under a warming climate, may produce misleading results because they rely upon oversimplified representations of ecological and hydrological processes. In this, the first of a pair of papers, we present the conceptual framework for a model of peatland development, DigiBog, which considers peatlands as complex adaptive systems. DigiBog accounts for the interactions between the processes which govern litter production and peat decay, peat soil hydraulic properties, and peatland water-table behaviour, in a novel and genuinely ecohydrological manner. DigiBog consists of a number of interacting submodels, each representing a different aspect of peatland ecohydrology. Here we present in detail the mathematical and computational basis, as well as the implementation and testing, of the hydrological submodel. Remaining submodels are described and analysed in the accompanying paper. Tests of the hydrological submodel against analytical solutions for simple aquifers were highly successful: the greatest deviation between DigiBog and the analytical solutions was 2·83%. We also applied the hydrological submodel to irregularly shaped aquifers with heterogeneous hydraulic properties—situations for which no analytical solutions exist—and found the model's outputs to be plausible.

Hillslope scale surface runoff, sediment, and nutrient losses associated with tramline wheelings

Research on arable sandy loam and silty clay loam soils on 4° slopes in England has shown that tramlines (i.e. the unseeded wheeling areas used to facilitate spraying operations in cereal crops) can represent the most important pathway for phosphorus and sediment loss from moderately sloping fields. Detailed monitoring over the October–March period in winters 2005–2006 and 2006–2007 included event-based sampling of surface runoff, suspended and particulate sediment, and dissolved and particulate phosphorus from hillslope segments (each ∼300–800 m2) established in a randomized block design with four replicates of each treatment at each of two sites on lighter and heavier soils. Experimental treatments assessed losses from the cropped area without tramlines, and from the uncropped tramline area, and were compared to losses from tramlines which had been disrupted once in the autumn with a shallow tine. On the lighter soil, the effects of removal or shallow incorporation of straw residues was also determined. Research on both sandy and silty clay loam soils across two winters showed that tramline wheelings represented the dominant pathway for surface runoff and transport of sediment, phosphorus and nitrogen from cereal crops on moderate slopes. Results indicated 5·5–15·8% of rainfall lost as runoff, and losses of 0·8–2·9 kg TP ha−1 and 0·3–4·8 t ha−1 sediment in tramline treatments, compared to only 0·2–1·7% rainfall lost as runoff, and losses of 0·0–0·2 kg TP ha−1 and 0·003–0·3 t ha−1 sediment from treatments without tramlines or those where tramlines had been disrupted. The novel shallow disruption of tramline wheelings using a tine once following the autumn spray operation consistently and dramatically reduced (p < 0·001) surface runoff and loads of sediment, total nitrogen and total phosphorus to levels similar to those measured in cropped areas between tramlines. Results suggest that options for managing tramline wheelings warrant further refinement and evaluation with a view to incorporating them into spatially-targeted farm-level management planning using national or catchment-based agri-environment policy instruments aimed at reducing diffuse pollution from land to surface water systems. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Combined transcriptomic-(1)H NMR metabonomic study reveals yhat monoethylhexyl phthalate stimulates adipogenesis and glyceroneogenesis in human adipocytes

Adipose tissue is a major storage site for lipophilic environmental contaminants. The environmental metabolic disruptor hypothesis postulates that some pollutants can promote obesity or metabolic disorders by activating nuclear receptors involved in the control of energetic homeostasis. In this context, monoethylhexyl phthalate (MEHP) is of particular concern since it was shown to activate the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ (PPARγ) in 3T3-L1 murine preadipocytes. In the present work, we used an untargeted, combined transcriptomic-(1)H NMR-based metabonomic approach to describe the overall effect of MEHP on primary cultures of human subcutaneous adipocytes differentiated in vitro. MEHP stimulated rapidly and selectively the expression of genes involved in glyceroneogenesis, enhanced the expression of the cytosolic phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase, and reduced fatty acid release. These results demonstrate that MEHP increased glyceroneogenesis and fatty acid reesterification in human adipocytes. A longer treatment with MEHP induced the expression of genes involved in triglycerides uptake, synthesis, and storage; decreased intracellular lactate, glutamine, and other amino acids; increased aspartate and NAD, and resulted in a global increase in triglycerides. Altogether, these results indicate that MEHP promoted the differentiation of human preadipocytes to adipocytes. These mechanisms might contribute to the suspected obesogenic effect of MEHP.

The British state and the Irish rebellion of 1916: an intelligence failure or an failure of response

The teleological narrative that has dominated the handling of intelligence by the British state in the events that led up to the 1916 Irish Rebellion in Dublin has been characterised as a cocktail of incompetence and mendacity. Using new and existing archive material this article argues that both the cabinet in London and key members of the Irish Executive in Dublin were supplied with accurate and timely intelligence by the Admiralty's signals intelligence unit, the Royal Irish Constabulary and the Dublin Metropolitan Police with respect to this event. Far from being a failure of intelligence here is evidence to show that there occurred a failure of response on behalf of key decision-makers. The warnings that were given by intelligence organisations were filtered through the existing policy preferences and assumptions. As a result of these factors accurate evaluations and sound judgement were not exercised by key officials, such as Sir Matthew Nathan, in Dublin Castle.

Riluzole elevates GLT-1 activity and levels in striatal astrocytes

Drugs which upregulate astrocyte glutamate transport may be useful neuroprotective compounds by preventing excitotoxicity. We set up a new system to identify potential neuroprotective drugs which act through GLT-1. Primary mouse striatal astrocytes grown in the presence of the growth-factor supplement G5 express high levels of the functional glutamate transporter, GLT-1 (also known as EAAT2) as assessed by Western blotting and (3)H-glutamate uptake assay, and levels decline following growth factor withdrawal. The GLT-1 transcriptional enhancer dexamethasone (0.1 or 1muM) was able to prevent loss of GLT-1 levels and activity following growth factor withdrawal. In contrast, ceftriaxone, a compound previously reported to enhance GLT-1 expression, failed to regulate GLT-1 in this system. The neuroprotective compound riluzole (100muM) upregulated GLT-1 levels and activity, through a mechanism that was not dependent on blockade of voltage-sensitive ion channels, since zonasimide (1mM) did not regulate GLT-1. Finally, CDP-choline (10muM-1mM), a compound which promotes association of GLT-1/EAAT2 with lipid rafts was unable to prevent GLT-1 loss under these conditions. This observation extends the known pharmacological actions of riluzole, and suggests that this compound may exert its neuroprotective effects through an astrocyte-dependent mechanism.

Letter processing and font information during reading: beyond distinctiveness, where vision meets design

Letter identification is a critical front end of the reading process. In general, conceptualizations of the identification process have emphasized arbitrary sets of distinctive features. However, a richer view of letter processing incorporates principles from the field of type design, including an emphasis on uniformities across letters within a font. The importance of uniformities is supported by a small body of research indicating that consistency of font increases letter identification efficiency. We review design concepts and the relevant literature, with the goal of stimulating further thinking about letter processing during reading.

In vitro fermentation of linear and alpha-1,2-branched dextrans by the human fecal microbiota

The role of structure and molecular weight in fermentation selectivity in linear α-1,6 dextrans and dextrans with α-1,2 branching was investigated. Fermentation by gut bacteria was determined in anaerobic, pH-controlled fecal batch cultures after 36 h. Inulin (1%, wt/vol), which is a known prebiotic, was used as a control. Samples were obtained at 0, 10, 24, and 36 h of fermentation for bacterial enumeration by fluorescent in situ hybridization and short-chain fatty acid analyses. The gas production of the substrate fermentation was investigated in non-pH-controlled, fecal batch culture tubes after 36 h. Linear and branched 1-kDa dextrans produced significant increases in Bifidobacterium populations. The degree of α-1,2 branching did not influence the Bifidobacterium populations; however, α-1,2 branching increased the dietary fiber content, implying a decrease in digestibility. Other measured bacteria were unaffected by the test substrates except for the Bacteroides-Prevotella group, the growth levels of which were increased on inulin and 6- and 70-kDa dextrans, and the Faecalibacterium prausnitzii group, the growth levels of which were decreased on inulin and 1-kDa dextrans. A considerable increase in short-chain fatty acid concentration was measured following the fermentation of all dextrans and inulin. Gas production rates were similar among all dextrans tested but were significantly slower than that for inulin. The linear 1-kDa dextran produced lower total gas and shorter time to attain maximal gas production compared to those of the 70-kDa dextran (branched) and inulin. These findings indicate that dextrans induce a selective effect on the gut flora, short-chain fatty acids, and gas production depending on their length.