The time-course of morphological processing in a second language

We report findings from psycholinguistic experiments investigating the detailed timing of processing morphologically complex words by proficient adult second (L2) language learners of English in comparison to adult native (L1) speakers of English. The first study employed the masked priming technique to investigate -ed forms with a group of advanced Arabic-speaking learners of English. The results replicate previously found L1/L2 differences in morphological priming, even though in the present experiment an extra temporal delay was offered after the presentation of the prime words. The second study examined the timing of constraints against inflected forms inside derived words in English using the eye-movement monitoring technique and an additional acceptability judgment task with highly advanced Dutch L2 learners of English in comparison to adult L1 English controls. Whilst offline the L2 learners performed native-like, the eye-movement data showed that their online processing was not affected by the morphological constraint against regular plurals inside derived words in the same way as in native speakers. Taken together, these findings indicate that L2 learners are not just slower than native speakers in processing morphologically complex words, but that the L2 comprehension system employs real-time grammatical analysis (in this case, morphological information) less than the L1 system.

The role of anomalous SST and surface fluxes over the Southeastern North Atlantic in the explosive development of windstorm Xynthia

In late February 2010 the extraordinary windstorm Xynthia crossed over Southwestern and Central Europe and caused severe damage, affecting particularly the Spanish and French Atlantic coasts. The storm was embedded in uncommon large-scale atmospheric and boundary conditions prior to and during its development, namely enhanced sea surface temperatures (SST) within the low-level entrainment zone of air masses, an unusual southerly position of the polar jet stream, and a remarkable split jet structure in the upper troposphere. To analyse the processes that led to the rapid intensification of this exceptional storm originating close to the subtropics (30°N), the sensitivity of the cyclone intensification to latent heat release is determined using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM forced with ERA-Interim data. A control simulation with observed SST shows that moist and warm air masses originating from the subtropical North Atlantic were involved in the cyclogenesis process and led to the formation of a vertical tower with high values of potential vorticity (PV). Sensitivity studies with reduced SST or increased laminar boundary roughness for heat led to reduced surface latent heat fluxes. This induced both a weaker and partly retarded development of the cyclone and a weakening of the PV-tower together with reduced diabatic heating rates, particularly at lower and mid levels. We infer that diabatic processes played a crucial role during the phase of rapid deepening of Xynthia and thus to its intensity over the Southeastern North Atlantic. We suggest that windstorms like Xynthia may occur more frequently under future climate conditions due to the warming SSTs and potentially enhanced latent heat release, thus increasing the windstorm risk for Southwestern Europe.

The dichotomous structure of the warm conveyor belt

The warm conveyor belt (WCB) of an extratropical cyclone generally splits into two branches. One branch (WCB1) turns anticyclonically into the downstream upper-level tropospheric ridge, while the second branch (WCB2) wraps cyclonically around the cyclone centre. Here, the WCB split in a typical North Atlantic cold-season cyclone is analysed using two numerical models: the Met Office Unified Model and the COSMO model. The WCB flow is defined using off-line trajectory analysis. The two models represent the WCB split consistently. The split occurs early in the evolution of the WCB with WCB1 experiencing maximum ascent at lower latitudes and with higher moisture content than WCB2. WCB1 ascends abruptly along the cold front where the resolved ascent rates are greatest and there is also line convection. In contrast, WCB2 remains at lower levels for longer before undergoing saturated large-scale ascent over the system's warm front. The greater moisture in WCB1 inflow results in greater net potential temperature change from latent heat release, which determines the final isentropic level of each branch. WCB1 also exhibits lower outflow potential vorticity values than WCB2. Complementary diagnostics in the two models are utilised to study the influence of individual diabatic processes on the WCB. Total diabatic heating rates along the WCB branches are comparable in the two models with microphysical processes in the large-scale cloud schemes being the major contributor to this heating. However, the different convective parameterisation schemes used by the models cause significantly different contributions to the total heating. These results have implications for studies on the influence of the WCB outflow in Rossby wave evolution and breaking. Key aspects are the net potential temperature change and the isentropic level of the outflow which together will influence the relative mass going into each WCB branch and the associated negative PV anomalies at the tropopause-level flow.

Multi-site evaluation of an urban land-surface model: intra-urban heterogeneity, seasonality and parameter complexity requirements

An extensive off-line evaluation of the Noah/Single Layer Urban Canopy Model (Noah/SLUCM) urban land-surface model is presented using data from 15 sites to assess (1) the ability of the scheme to reproduce the surface energy balance observed in a range of urban environments, including seasonal changes, and (2) the impact of increasing complexity of input parameter information. Model performance is found to be most dependent on representation of vegetated surface area cover; refinement of other parameter values leads to smaller improvements. Model biases in net all-wave radiation and trade-offs between turbulent heat fluxes are highlighted using an optimization algorithm. Here we use the Urban Zones to characterize Energy partitioning (UZE) as the basis to assign default SLUCM parameter values. A methodology (FRAISE) to assign sites (or areas) to one of these categories based on surface characteristics is evaluated. Using three urban sites from the Basel Urban Boundary Layer Experiment (BUBBLE) dataset, an independent evaluation of the model performance with the parameter values representative of each class is performed. The scheme copes well with both seasonal changes in the surface characteristics and intra-urban heterogeneities in energy flux partitioning, with RMSE performance comparable to similar state-of-the-art models for all fluxes, sites and seasons. The potential of the methodology for high-resolution atmospheric modelling application using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is highlighted. This analysis supports the recommendations that (1) three classes are appropriate to characterize the urban environment, and (2) that the parameter values identified should be adopted as default values in WRF.

Estimating the direct aerosol radiative perturbation: impact of ocean surface representation and aerosol non-sphericity

Atmospheric aerosols are now actively studied, in particular because of their radiative and climate impacts. Estimations of the direct aerosol radiative perturbation, caused by extinction of incident solar radiation, usually rely on radiative transfer codes and involve simplifying hypotheses. This paper addresses two approximations which are widely used for the sake of simplicity and limiting the computational cost of the calculations. Firstly, it is shown that using a Lambertian albedo instead of the more rigorous bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) to model the ocean surface radiative properties leads to large relative errors in the instantaneous aerosol radiative perturbation. When averaging over the day, these errors cancel out to acceptable levels of less than 3% (except in the northern hemisphere winter). The other scope of this study is to address aerosol non-sphericity effects. Comparing an experimental phase function with an equivalent Mie-calculated phase function, we found acceptable relative errors if the aerosol radiative perturbation calculated for a given optical thickness is daily averaged. However, retrieval of the optical thickness of non-spherical aerosols assuming spherical particles can lead to significant errors. This is due to significant differences between the spherical and non-spherical phase functions. Discrepancies in aerosol radiative perturbation between the spherical and non-spherical cases are sometimes reduced and sometimes enhanced if the aerosol optical thickness for the spherical case is adjusted to fit the simulated radiance of the non-spherical case.

In situ and remote-sensing measurements of the mean microphysical and optical properties of industrial pollution aerosol during ADRIEX

We present a summary of the principal physical and optical properties of aerosol particles using the FAAM BAE-146 instrumented aircraft during ADRIEX between 27 August and 6 September 2004, augmented by sunphotometer, lidar and satellite retrievals. Observations of anthropogenic aerosol, principally from industrial sources, were concentrated over the northern Adriatic Sea and over the Po Valley close to the aerosol sources. An additional flight was also carried out over the Black Sea to compare east and west European pollution. Measurements show the single-scattering albedo of dry aerosol particles to vary considerably between 0.89 and 0.97 at a wavelength of 0.55 μm, with a campaign mean within the polluted lower free troposphere of 0.92. Although aerosol concentrations varied significantly from day to day and during individual days, the shape of the aerosol size distribution was relatively consistent through the experiment, with no detectable change observed over land and over sea. There is evidence to suggest that the pollution aerosol within the marine boundary layer was younger than that in the elevated layer. Trends in the aerosol volume distribution show consistency with multiple-site AERONET radiometric observations. The aerosol optical depths derived from aircraft measurements show a consistent bias to lower values than both the AERONET and lidar ground-based radiometric observations, differences which can be explained by local variations in the aerosol column loading and by some aircraft instrumental artefacts. Retrievals of the aerosol optical depth and fine-mode (<0.5 μm radius) fraction contribution to the optical depth using MODIS data from the Terra and Aqua satellites show a reasonable level of agreement with the AERONET and aircraft measurements.

Using attribute importance rankings within discrete choice experiments: an application to valuing bread attributes

We present a new Bayesian econometric specification for a hypothetical Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) incorporating respondent ranking information about attribute importance. Our results indicate that a DCE debriefing question that asks respondents to rank the importance of attributes helps to explain the resulting choices. We also examine how mode of survey delivery (online and mail) impacts model performance, finding that results are not substantively a§ected by the mode of survey delivery. We conclude that the ranking data is a complementary source of information about respondent utility functions within hypothetical DCEs

A GCSS model intercomparison for a tropical squall line observed during toga-coare. II: Intercomparison of single-column models and a cloud-resolving model

This paper presents single-column model (SCM) simulations of a tropical squall-line case observed during the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment of the Tropical Ocean/Global Atmosphere Programme. This case-study was part of an international model intercomparison project organized by Working Group 4 ‘Precipitating Convective Cloud Systems’ of the GEWEX (Global Energy and Water-cycle Experiment) Cloud System Study. Eight SCM groups using different deep-convection parametrizations participated in this project. The SCMs were forced by temperature and moisture tendencies that had been computed from a reference cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulation using open boundary conditions. The comparison of the SCM results with the reference CRM simulation provided insight into the ability of current convection and cloud schemes to represent organized convection. The CRM results enabled a detailed evaluation of the SCMs in terms of the thermodynamic structure and the convective mass flux of the system, the latter being closely related to the surface convective precipitation. It is shown that the SCMs could reproduce reasonably well the time evolution of the surface convective and stratiform precipitation, the convective mass flux, and the thermodynamic structure of the squall-line system. The thermodynamic structure simulated by the SCMs depended on how the models partitioned the precipitation between convective and stratiform. However, structural differences persisted in the thermodynamic profiles simulated by the SCMs and the CRM. These differences could be attributed to the fact that the total mass flux used to compute the SCM forcing differed from the convective mass flux. The SCMs could not adequately represent these organized mesoscale circulations and the microphysicallradiative forcing associated with the stratiform region. This issue is generally known as the ‘scale-interaction’ problem that can only be properly addressed in fully three-dimensional simulations. Sensitivity simulations run by several groups showed that the time evolution of the surface convective precipitation was considerably smoothed when the convective closure was based on convective available potential energy instead of moisture convergence. Finally, additional SCM simulations without using a convection parametrization indicated that the impact of a convection parametrization in forced SCM runs was more visible in the moisture profiles than in the temperature profiles because convective transport was particularly important in the moisture budget.

Maintenance of the African easterly jet

The maintenance of the African easterly jet (AEJ) has been examined using a zonally symmetric general circulation model with simple parametrizations. It is shown that the AEJ is maintained in association with two diabatically forced meridional circulations: one associated with surface fluxes and dry convection in the Saharan heat-low region and one associated with deep moist convection in the intertropical convergence zone equatorward of this. the heat-low heating, which reaches the height of the AEJ around 700 mb, is particularly important in maintaining the AEJ and its associated meridional gradients in potential vorticity. It is concluded that the mean observed AEJ results from a combination of the diabatically forced meridional circulations which maintain it and easterly waves which weaken it.

Development of convection along the SPCZ within a Madden-Julian oscillation

A subtropical Rossby-wave propagation mechanism is proposed to account for the poleward and eastward progression of intraseasonal convective anomalies along the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) that is observed in a significant proportion of Madden–Julian oscillations (MJOs). Large-scale convection, associated with an MJO, is assumed to be already established over the Indonesian region. The latent heating associated with this convection forces an equatorial Rossby-wave response with an upper-tropospheric anticyclone centred over, or slightly to the west of, the convection. Large potential-vorticity (PV) gradients, associated with the subtropical jet and the tropopause, lie just poleward of the anticyclone, and large magnitude PV air is advected equatorwards on the eastern side of the anticyclone. This ‘high’ PV air, or upper-tropospheric trough, is far enough off the equator that it has associated strong horizontal temperature gradients, and it induces deep ascent on its eastern side, at a latitude of about 15–30°. If this deep ascent is over a region susceptible to deep convection, such as the SPCZ, then convection may be forced or triggered. Hence convection develops along the SPCZ as a forced response to convection over Indonesia. The response mechanism is essentially one of subtropical Rossby-wave propagation. This hypothesis is based on a case study of a particularly strong MJO in early 1988, and is tested by idealized modelling studies. The mechanism may also be relevant to the existence of the mean SPCZ, as a forced response to mean Indonesian convection.

The influence of Antarctica on the momentum budget of the southern extratropics

The antarctic plateau acts as a strong heat sink for the global climate, cooling the atmosphere and radiating energy to space. A cold dense atmospheric boundary layer is formed. Strong surface winds are formed as the boundary layer drains off the plateau. These drainage winds and the eddy fluxes necessary to maintain them are analysed in a general circulation model (GCM). The drainage flow is well represented in the GCM. The associated mean meridional circulation is analysed in isentropic coordinates. The momentum budget over Antarctica reveals a balance between the Eliassen-Palm flux convergence and the Coriolis torque exerted by the mean meridional mass flux. Both vertical and horizontal components of the Eliassen-Palm flux contribute, the vertical component being the greater.

A mixed-phase bulk orographic precipitation model with embedded convection

A novel analytical model for mixed-phase, unblocked and unseeded orographic precipitation with embedded convection is developed and evaluated. The model takes an idealised background flow and terrain geometry, and calculates the area-averaged precipitation rate and other microphysical quantities. The results provide insight into key physical processes, including cloud condensation, vapour deposition, evaporation, sublimation, as well as precipitation formation and sedimentation (fallout). To account for embedded convection in nominally stratiform clouds, diagnostics for purely convective and purely stratiform clouds are calculated independently and combined using weighting functions based on relevant dynamical and microphysical time scales. An in-depth description of the model is presented, as well as a quantitative assessment of its performance against idealised, convection-permitting numerical simulations with a sophisticated microphysics parameterisation. The model is found to accurately reproduce the simulation diagnostics over most of the parameter space considered.

Evaluation of ECMWF medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation for river basins

Providing probabilistic forecasts using Ensemble Prediction Systems has become increasingly popular in both the meteorological and hydrological communities. Compared to conventional deterministic forecasts, probabilistic forecasts may provide more reliable forecasts of a few hours to a number of days ahead, and hence are regarded as better tools for taking uncertainties into consideration and hedging against weather risks. It is essential to evaluate performance of raw ensemble forecasts and their potential values in forecasting extreme hydro-meteorological events. This study evaluates ECMWF’s medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation over the period 2008/01/01-2012/09/30 on a selected mid-latitude large scale river basin, the Huai river basin (ca. 270,000 km2) in central-east China. The evaluation unit is sub-basin in order to consider forecast performance in a hydrologically relevant way. The study finds that forecast performance varies with sub-basin properties, between flooding and non-flooding seasons, and with the forecast properties of aggregated time steps and lead times. Although the study does not evaluate any hydrological applications of the ensemble precipitation forecasts, its results have direct implications in hydrological forecasts should these ensemble precipitation forecasts be employed in hydrology.