Observations of the inter-ocean exchange around South Africa

There is growing evidence that the interocean exchange south of Africa is an important link in the global overturning circulation of the ocean, the so‐called ocean conveyer belt. At this location, warm and salty Indian Ocean waters enter the South Atlantic and are pulled by currents that eventually reach the North Atlantic, where water cools and sinks. A major contributor to the exchange is the frequent shedding of ring eddies from the termination of the Agulhas Current south of the tip of Africa. This shedding is controlled by developments far upstream in the Indian Ocean, and variations in this ‘Agulhas Leakage’ can lead to changes in the rate and stability of the Atlantic overturning, with possible associated global climate variations [Weijer et al., 1999]. Regional climate variations in the tropical and subtropical Indian Ocean are known to affect the whole system of the Agulhas Current, including the interocean exchanges. This article reports on some of the seminal results of ongoing multinational, multidisciplinary projects that explore these issues.

Sensitivity of 21st century stratospheric ozone to greenhouse gas scenarios

To understand how greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may affect future stratospheric ozone, 21st century projections from four chemistry-climate models are examined for their dependence on six different GHG scenarios. Compared to higher GHG emissions, lower emissions result in smaller increases in tropical upwelling with resultant smaller reductions in ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and less severe stratospheric cooling with resultant smaller increases in upper stratospheric ozone globally. Increases in reactive nitrogen and hydrogen that lead to additional chemical ozone destruction mainly play a role in scenarios with higher GHG emissions. Differences among the six GHG scenarios are found to be largest over northern midlatitudes (∼20 DU by 2100) and in the Arctic (∼40 DU by 2100) with divergence mainly in the second half of the 21st century. The uncertainty in the return of stratospheric column ozone to 1980 values arising from different GHG scenarios is comparable to or less than the uncertainty that arises from model differences in the larger set of 17 CCMVal-2 SRES A1B simulations. The results suggest that effects of GHG emissions on future stratospheric ozone should be considered in climate change mitigation policy and ozone projections should be assessed under more than a single GHG scenario.

Observed and simulated precursors of stratospheric polar vortex anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere

The Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex is linked to surface weather. After Stratospheric Sudden Warmings in winter, the tropospheric circulation is often nudged towards the negative phase of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A strong stratospheric vortex is often associated with subsequent positive NAM/NAO conditions. For stratosphere–troposphere associations to be useful for forecasting purposes it is crucial that changes to the stratospheric vortex can be understood and predicted. Recent studies have proposed that there exist tropospheric precursors to anomalous vortex events in the stratosphere and that these precursors may be understood by considering the relationship between stationary wave patterns and regional variability. Another important factor is the extent to which the inherent variability of the stratosphere in an atmospheric model influences its ability to simulate stratosphere–troposphere links. Here we examine the lower stratosphere variability in 300-year pre-industrial control integrations from 13 coupled climate models. We show that robust precursors to stratospheric polar vortex anomalies are evident across the multi-model ensemble. The most significant tropospheric component of these precursors consists of a height anomaly dipole across northern Eurasia and large anomalies in upward stationary wave fluxes in the lower stratosphere over the continent. The strength of the stratospheric variability in the models was found to depend on the variability of the upward stationary wave fluxes and the amplitude of the stationary waves.

Black carbon measurements in the boundary layer over western and northern Europe

Europe is a densely populated region that is a significant global source of black carbon (BC) aerosol, but there is a lack of information regarding the physical properties and spatial/vertical distribution of rBC in the region. We present the first aircraft observations of sub-micron refractory BC (rBC) aerosol concentrations and physical properties measured by a single particle soot photometer (SP2) in the lower troposphere over Europe. The observations spanned a region roughly bounded by 50° to 60° N and from 15° W to 30° E. The measurements, made between April and September 2008, showed that average rBC mass concentrations ranged from about 300 ng m−3 near urban areas to approximately 50 ng m−3 in remote continental regions, lower than previous surface-based measurements. rBC represented between 0.5 and 3% of the sub-micron aerosol mass. Black carbon mass size distributions were log-normally distributed and peaked at approximately 180 nm, but shifted to smaller diameters (~160 nm) near source regions. rBC was correlated with carbon monoxide (CO) but had different ratios to CO depending on location and air mass. Light absorption coefficients were measured by particle soot absorption photometers on two separate aircraft and showed similar geographic patterns to rBC mass measured by the SP2. We summarize the rBC and light absorption measurements as a function of longitude and air mass age and also provide profiles of rBC mass concentrations and size distribution statistics. Our results will help evaluate model-predicted regional rBC concentrations and properties and determine regional and global climate impacts from rBC due to atmospheric heating and surface dimming.

Probabilistic simulations of crop yield over western India using the DEMETER seasonal hindcast ensembles

Process-based integrated modelling of weather and crop yield over large areas is becoming an important research topic. The production of the DEMETER ensemble hindcasts of weather allows this work to be carried out in a probabilistic framework. In this study, ensembles of crop yield (groundnut, Arachis hypogaea L.) were produced for 10 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees grid cells in western India using the DEMETER ensembles and the general large-area model (GLAM) for annual crops. Four key issues are addressed by this study. First, crop model calibration methods for use with weather ensemble data are assessed. Calibration using yield ensembles was more successful than calibration using reanalysis data (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-yr reanalysis, ERA40). Secondly, the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure is examined. The hindcasts show skill in the prediction of crop failure, with more severe failures being more predictable. Thirdly, the use of yield ensemble means to predict interannual variability in crop yield is examined and their skill assessed relative to baseline simulations using ERA40. The accuracy of multi-model yield ensemble means is equal to or greater than the accuracy using ERA40. Fourthly, the impact of two key uncertainties, sowing window and spatial scale, is briefly examined. The impact of uncertainty in the sowing window is greater with ERA40 than with the multi-model yield ensemble mean. Subgrid heterogeneity affects model accuracy: where correlations are low on the grid scale, they may be significantly positive on the subgrid scale. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on seasonal time-scales are as follows. (i) There is the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure (defined by a threshold yield value); forecasting of yield terciles shows less potential. (ii) Any improvement in the skill of climate models has the potential to translate into improved deterministic yield prediction. (iii) Whilst model input uncertainties are important, uncertainty in the sowing window may not require specific modelling. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on multidecadal (climate change) time-scales are as follows. (i) The skill in the ensemble mean suggests that the perturbation, within uncertainty bounds, of crop and climate parameters, could potentially average out some of the errors associated with mean yield prediction. (ii) For a given technology trend, decadal fluctuations in the yield-gap parameter used by GLAM may be relatively small, implying some predictability on those time-scales.

Simulation of crop yields using ERA-40: Limits to skill and nonstationarity in weather-yield relationships

Reanalysis data provide an excellent test bed for impacts prediction systems. because they represent an upper limit on the skill of climate models. Indian groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) yields have been simulated using the General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr reanalysis (ERA-40). The ability of ERA-40 to represent the Indian summer monsoon has been examined. The ability of GLAM. when driven with daily ERA-40 data, to model both observed yields and observed relationships between subseasonal weather and yield has been assessed. Mean yields "were simulated well across much of India. Correlations between observed and modeled yields, where these are significant. are comparable to correlations between observed yields and ERA-40 rainfall. Uncertainties due to the input planting window, crop duration, and weather data have been examined. A reduction in the root-mean-square error of simulated yields was achieved by applying bias correction techniques to the precipitation. The stability of the relationship between weather and yield over time has been examined. Weather-yield correlations vary on decadal time scales. and this has direct implications for the accuracy of yield simulations. Analysis of the skewness of both detrended yields and precipitation suggest that nonclimatic factors are partly responsible for this nonstationarity. Evidence from other studies, including data on cereal and pulse yields, indicates that this result is not particular to groundnut yield. The detection and modeling of nonstationary weather-yield relationships emerges from this study as an important part of the process of understanding and predicting the impacts of climate variability and change on crop yields.

Changing precipitation patterns alter plant community dynamics and succession in an ex-arable grassland

1. Changes in the frequency of extreme events, such as droughts, may be one of the most significant impacts of climate change for ecosystems. Models predict more frequent summer droughts in much of England: this paper investigates the impact on different types of plants in an ex-arable grassland community. 2. A long-term experiment simulated increased and decreased summer precipitation. Substantial interannual variation allowed the effects of summer drought to be tested in combination with wet and dry weather in other seasons. This is important, as climate models predict increased winter precipitation. 3. Total cover abundance in early summer increased with increasing water supply in the previous summer; there was no effect of winter precipitation. Productivity is therefore likely to decrease with more frequent summer droughts, with no mitigating effect of wetter winters. 4. The percentage cover of perennial grasses declined during a natural drought in 1995-97; this was exacerbated by the experimental drought treatment and reduced by supplemented rainfall. Simultaneously, short-lived ruderal species increased; this was greatest in drought treatments and least with supplemented rainfall. 4. These trends were subsequently reversed during several years of unusually wet weather, with perennial grasses increasing and short-lived forbs decreasing. This occurred even in experimentally droughted plots, and we propose that it resulted from rapid coverage of gaps during wet autumns and winters. 6. Deep-rooted species generally proved to be more drought resistant, but there were exceptions. 7. We conclude that increased frequency of summer droughts could have serious implications for the establishment and successional development of ex-arable grasslands. Increased winter precipitation would moderate the impact on species composition, but not on productivity.

Estimating climatically relevant singular vectors for decadal predictions of the Atlantic Ocean

A key aspect in designing an ecient decadal prediction system is ensuring that the uncertainty in the ocean initial conditions is sampled optimally. Here, we consider one strategy to address this issue by investigating the growth of optimal perturbations in the HadCM3 global climate model (GCM). More specically, climatically relevant singular vectors (CSVs) - the small perturbations which grow most rapidly for a specic initial condition - are estimated for decadal timescales in the Atlantic Ocean. It is found that reliable CSVs can be estimated by running a large ensemble of integrations of the GCM. Amplication of the optimal perturbations occurs for more than 10 years, and possibly up to 40 years. The identi ed regions for growing perturbations are found to be in the far North Atlantic, and these perturbations cause amplication through an anomalous meridional overturning circulation response. Additionally, this type of analysis potentially informs the design of future ocean observing systems by identifying the sensitive regions where small uncertainties in the ocean state can grow maximally. Although these CSVs are expensive to compute, we identify ways in which the process could be made more ecient in the future.

Tropospheric temperature trends: history of an ongoing controversy

Changes in atmospheric temperature have a particular importance in climate research because climate models consistently predict a distinctive vertical profile of trends. With increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the surface and troposphere are consistently projected to warm, with an enhancement of that warming in the tropical upper troposphere. Hence, attempts to detect this distinct ‘fingerprint’ have been a focus for observational studies. The topic acquired heightened importance following the 1990 publication of an analysis of satellite data which challenged the reality of the projected tropospheric warming. This review documents the evolution over the last four decades of understanding of tropospheric temperature trends and their likely causes. Particular focus is given to the difficulty of producing homogenized datasets, with which to derive trends, from both radiosonde and satellite observing systems, because of the many systematic changes over time. The value of multiple independent analyses is demonstrated. Paralleling developments in observational datasets, increased computer power and improved understanding of climate forcing mechanisms have led to refined estimates of temperature trends from a wide range of climate models and a better understanding of internal variability. It is concluded that there is no reasonable evidence of a fundamental disagreement between tropospheric temperature trends from models and observations when uncertainties in both are treated comprehensively

High frequency variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

We compare the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) as simulated by the coupled climate models of the RAPID project, which cover a wide range of resolution and complexity, and observed by the RAPID/MOCHA array at about 26N. We analyse variability on a range of timescales. In models of all resolutions there is substantial variability on timescales of a few days; in most AOGCMs the amplitude of the variability is of somewhat larger magnitude than that observed by the RAPID array, while the amplitude of the simulated annual cycle is similar to observations. A dynamical decomposition shows that in the models, as in observations, the AMOC is predominantly geostrophic (driven by pressure and sea-level gradients), with both geostrophic and Ekman contributions to variability, the latter being exaggerated and the former underrepresented in models. Other ageostrophic terms, neglected in the observational estimate, are small but not negligible. In many RAPID models and in models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3), interannual variability of the maximum of the AMOC wherever it lies, which is a commonly used model index, is similar to interannual variability in the AMOC at 26N. Annual volume and heat transport timeseries at the same latitude are well-correlated within 15-45N, indicating the climatic importance of the AMOC. In the RAPID and CMIP3 models, we show that the AMOC is correlated over considerable distances in latitude, but not the whole extent of the north Atlantic; consequently interannual variability of the AMOC at 50N is not well-correlated with the AMOC at 26N.

Exploring NOy chemistry in levitated aqueous aerosol droplets

Chemistry of reactive nitrogen oxides, NOy, is crucial for our understanding of composition and properties of the Earth’s atmosphere. The proof-of-principle experiments demonstrated that we are able to study the atmospheric fate of nitrogen oxides that has significant impact on global climate and hydrological cycle, thus affecting the likelihood of local floods and acid rain.

Kinetic multi-layer model of aerosol surface and bulk chemistry (KM-SUB): the influence of interfacial transport and bulk diffusion on the oxidation of oleic acid by ozone

We present a novel kinetic multi-layer model that explicitly resolves mass transport and chemical reaction at the surface and in the bulk of aerosol particles (KM-SUB). The model is based on the PRA framework of gas-particle interactions (Poschl-Rudich-Ammann, 2007), and it includes reversible adsorption, surface reactions and surface-bulk exchange as well as bulk diffusion and reaction. Unlike earlier models, KM-SUB does not require simplifying assumptions about steady-state conditions and radial mixing. The temporal evolution and concentration profiles of volatile and non-volatile species at the gas-particle interface and in the particle bulk can be modeled along with surface concentrations and gas uptake coefficients. In this study we explore and exemplify the effects of bulk diffusion on the rate of reactive gas uptake for a simple reference system, the ozonolysis of oleic acid particles, in comparison to experimental data and earlier model studies. We demonstrate how KM-SUB can be used to interpret and analyze experimental data from laboratory studies, and how the results can be extrapolated to atmospheric conditions. In particular, we show how interfacial and bulk transport, i.e., surface accommodation, bulk accommodation and bulk diffusion, influence the kinetics of the chemical reaction. Sensitivity studies suggest that in fine air particulate matter oleic acid and compounds with similar reactivity against ozone (carbon-carbon double bonds) can reach chemical lifetimes of many hours only if they are embedded in a (semi-)solid matrix with very low diffusion coefficients (< 10(-10) cm(2) s(-1)). Depending on the complexity of the investigated system, unlimited numbers of volatile and non-volatile species and chemical reactions can be flexibly added and treated with KM-SUB. We propose and intend to pursue the application of KM-SUB as a basis for the development of a detailed master mechanism of aerosol chemistry as well as for the derivation of simplified but realistic parameterizations for large-scale atmospheric and climate models.

Kinetic multi-layer model of aerosol surface and bulk chemistry (KM-SUB): the influence of interfacial transport and bulk diffusion on the oxidation of oleic acid by ozone

We present a novel kinetic multi-layer model that explicitly resolves mass transport and chemical reaction at the surface and in the bulk of aerosol particles (KM-SUB). The model is based on the PRA framework of gas–particle interactions (P¨oschl et al., 5 2007), and it includes reversible adsorption, surface reactions and surface-bulk exchange as well as bulk diffusion and reaction. Unlike earlier models, KM-SUB does not require simplifying assumptions about steady-state conditions and radial mixing. The temporal evolution and concentration profiles of volatile and non-volatile species at the gas-particle interface and in the particle bulk can be modeled along with surface 10 concentrations and gas uptake coefficients. In this study we explore and exemplify the effects of bulk diffusion on the rate of reactive gas uptake for a simple reference system, the ozonolysis of oleic acid particles, in comparison to experimental data and earlier model studies. We demonstrate how KM-SUB can be used to interpret and analyze experimental data from laboratory stud15 ies, and how the results can be extrapolated to atmospheric conditions. In particular, we show how interfacial transport and bulk transport, i.e., surface accommodation, bulk accommodation and bulk diffusion, influence the kinetics of the chemical reaction. Sensitivity studies suggest that in fine air particulate matter oleic acid and compounds with similar reactivity against ozone (C=C double bonds) can reach chemical lifetimes of 20 multiple hours only if they are embedded in a (semi-)solid matrix with very low diffusion coefficients (10−10 cm2 s−1). Depending on the complexity of the investigated system, unlimited numbers of volatile and non-volatile species and chemical reactions can be flexibly added and treated with KM-SUB. We propose and intend to pursue the application of KM-SUB 25 as a basis for the development of a detailed master mechanism of aerosol chemistry as well as for the derivation of simplified but realistic parameterizations for large-scale atmospheric and climate models.

On the use of geometric moments to examine the continuum of sudden stratospheric warmings

The polar winter stratospheric vortex is a coherent structure that undergoes different types of deformation that can be revealed by the geometric invariant moments. Three moments are used—the aspect ratio, the centroid latitude, and the area of the vortex based on stratospheric data from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) project—to study sudden stratospheric warmings. Hierarchical clustering combined with data image visualization techniques is used as well. Using the gap statistic, three optimal clusters are obtained based on the three geometric moments considered here. The 850-K potential vorticity field, as well as the vertical profiles of polar temperature and zonal wind, provides evidence that the clusters represent, respectively, the undisturbed (U), displaced (D), and split (S) states of the polar vortex. This systematic method for identifying and characterizing the state of the polar vortex using objective methods is useful as a tool for analyzing observations and as a test for climate models to simulate the observations. The method correctly identifies all previously identified major warmings and also identifies significant minor warmings where the atmosphere is substantially disturbed but does not quite meet the criteria to qualify as a major stratospheric warming.