Dilution of the Antarctic ozone hole into southern midlatitudes, 1998-2000

The reduction in southern midlatitude ozone is quantified by evaluating the trajectories of ozone-depleted air masses, assuming that photochemical recovery of ozone in advected air parcels can be ignored. This procedure is carried out for the 3 months from 15 October to 15 January for each of the years 1998, 1999, and 2000. Two distinct source regions, the vortex core and the vortex edge, are considered, and for each day, diabatic reverse domain filling calculations are performed for an ensemble of parcels between 30°S and 60°S and 400–700 K in altitude. In 1998, 1999, and 2000 the mean calculated ozone reduction is 16, 18, and 19 DU, respectively. Air parcels from the vortex edge region are significant contributors to the reduction, especially during spring. Results for four longitudinal and three latitudinal midlatitude subregions are also presented. A comparison with the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer measurements of total column ozone shows that without the dilution, ozone over Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes would be 5–6% higher during spring and summer. This result is probably an overestimate due to the neglect of photochemical recovery.

Incorporation of water vapour transfer in the JULES Land Surface Model: implications for key soil variables and land surface fluxes

This study focuses on the mechanisms underlying water and heat transfer in upper soil layers, and their effects on soil physical prognostic variables and the individual components of the energy balance. The skill of the JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) land surface model (LSM) to simulate key soil variables, such as soil moisture content and surface temperature, and fluxes such as evaporation, is investigated. The Richards equation for soil water transfer, as used in most LSMs, was updated by incorporating isothermal and thermal water vapour transfer. The model was tested for three sites representative of semi-arid and temperate arid climates: the Jornada site (New Mexico, USA), Griffith site (Australia) and Audubon site (Arizona, USA). Water vapour flux was found to contribute significantly to the water and heat transfer in the upper soil layers. This was mainly due to isothermal vapour diffusion; thermal vapour flux also played a role at the Jornada site just after rainfall events. Inclusion of water vapour flux had an effect on the diurnal evolution of evaporation, soil moisture content and surface temperature. The incorporation of additional processes, such as water vapour flux among others, into LSMs may improve the coupling between the upper soil layers and the atmosphere, which in turn could increase the reliability of weather and climate predictions.

What influence will future solar activity changes over the 21st century have on projected global near-surface temperature changes?

During the 20th century, solar activity increased in magnitude to a so-called grand maximum. It is probable that this high level of solar activity is at or near its end. It is of great interest whether any future reduction in solar activity could have a significant impact on climate that could partially offset the projected anthropogenic warming. Observations and reconstructions of solar activity over the last 9000 years are used as a constraint on possible future variations to produce probability distributions of total solar irradiance over the next 100 years. Using this information, with a simple climate model, we present results of the potential implications for future projections of climate on decadal to multidecadal timescales. Using one of the most recent reconstructions of historic total solar irradiance, the likely reduction in the warming by 2100 is found to be between 0.06 and 0.1 K, a very small fraction of the projected anthropogenic warming. However, if past total solar irradiance variations are larger and climate models substantially underestimate the response to solar variations, then there is a potential for a reduction in solar activity to mitigate a small proportion of the future warming, a scenario we cannot totally rule out. While the Sun is not expected to provide substantial delays in the time to reach critical temperature thresholds, any small delays it might provide are likely to be greater for lower anthropogenic emissions scenarios than for higher-emissions scenarios.

Co-variation of temperature and precipitation in CMIP5 models and satellite observations

Current variability of precipitation (P) and its response to surface temperature (T) are analysed using coupled(CMIP5) and atmosphere-only (AMIP5) climate model simulations and compared with observational estimates. There is striking agreement between Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observed and AMIP5 simulated P anomalies over land both globally and in the tropics suggesting that prescribed sea surface temperature and realistic radiative forcings are sufficient for simulating the interannual variability in continental P. Differences between the observed and simulated P variability over the ocean, originate primarily from the wet tropical regions, in particular the western Pacific, but are reduced slightly after 1995. All datasets show positive responses of P to T globally of around 2 %/K for simulations and 3-4 %/K in GPCP observations but model responses over the tropical oceans are around 3 times smaller than GPCP over the period 1988-2005. The observed anticorrelation between land and ocean P, linked with El Niño Southern Oscillation, is captured by the simulations. All data sets over the tropical ocean show a tendency for wet regions to become wetter and dry regions drier with warming. Over the wet region (75% precipitation percentile), the precipitation response is ~13-15%/K for GPCP and ~5%/K for models while trends in P are 2.4%/decade for GPCP, 0.6% /decade for CMIP5 and 0.9%/decade for AMIP5 suggesting that models are underestimating the precipitation responses or a deficiency exists in the satellite datasets.

Toward understanding of differences in current cloud retrievals of ARM ground-based measurements

Accurate observations of cloud microphysical properties are needed for evaluating and improving the representation of cloud processes in climate models and better estimate of the Earth radiative budget. However, large differences are found in current cloud products retrieved from ground-based remote sensing measurements using various retrieval algorithms. Understanding the differences is an important step to address uncertainties in the cloud retrievals. In this study, an in-depth analysis of nine existing ground-based cloud retrievals using ARM remote sensing measurements is carried out. We place emphasis on boundary layer overcast clouds and high level ice clouds, which are the focus of many current retrieval development efforts due to their radiative importance and relatively simple structure. Large systematic discrepancies in cloud microphysical properties are found in these two types of clouds among the nine cloud retrieval products, particularly for the cloud liquid and ice particle effective radius. Note that the differences among some retrieval products are even larger than the prescribed uncertainties reported by the retrieval algorithm developers. It is shown that most of these large differences have their roots in the retrieval theoretical bases, assumptions, as well as input and constraint parameters. This study suggests the need to further validate current retrieval theories and assumptions and even the development of new retrieval algorithms with more observations under different cloud regimes.