The large-scale circulation change at the end of the Baiu season in Japan as seen in ERA40 data

The time evolution of the circulation change at the end of the Baiu season is investigated using ERA40 data. An end-day is defined for each of the 23 years based on the 850 hPa θe value at 40˚Nin the 130-140˚E sector exceeding 330 K. Daily time series of variables are composited with respect to this day. These composite time-series exhibit a clearer and more rapid change in the precipitation and the large-scale circulation over the whole East Asia region than those performed using calendar days. The precipitation change includes the abrupt end of the Baiu rain, the northward shift of tropical convection perhaps starting a few days before this, and the start of the heavier rain at higher latitudes. The northward migration of lower tropospheric warm, moist tropical air, a general feature of the seasonal march in the region, is fast over the continent and slow over the ocean. By mid to late July the cooler air over the Sea of Japan is surrounded on 3 sides by the tropical air. It is suggestive that the large-scale stage has been set for a jump to the post-Baiu state, i.e., for the end of the Baiu season. Two likely triggers for the actual change emerge from the analysis. The first is the northward movement of tropical convection into the Philippine region. The second is an equivalent barotropic Rossby wave-train, that over a 10-day period develops downstream across Eurasia. It appears likely that in most years one or both mechanisms can be important in triggering the actual end of the Baiu season.

The use of land-sea warming contrast under climate change to improve impact metrics

A favoured method of assimilating information from state-of-the-art climate models into integrated assessment models of climate impacts is to use the transient climate response (TCR) of the climate models as an input, sometimes accompanied by a pattern matching approach to provide spatial information. More recent approaches to the problem use TCR with another independent piece of climate model output: the land-sea surface warming ratio (φ). In this paper we show why the use of φ in addition to TCR has such utility. Multiple linear regressions of surface temperature change onto TCR and φ in 22 climate models from the CMIP3 multi-model database show that the inclusion of φ explains a much greater fraction of the inter-model variance than using TCR alone. The improvement is particularly pronounced in North America and Eurasia in the boreal summer season, and in the Amazon all year round. The use of φ as the second metric is beneficial for three reasons: firstly it is uncorrelated with TCR in state-of-the-art climate models and can therefore be considered as an independent metric; secondly, because of its projected time-invariance, the magnitude of φ is better constrained than TCR in the immediate future; thirdly, the use of two variables is much simpler than approaches such as pattern scaling from climate models. Finally we show how using the latest estimates of φ from climate models with a mean value of 1.6—as opposed to previously reported values of 1.4—can significantly increase the mean time-integrated discounted damage projections in a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model by about 15 %. When compared to damages calculated without the inclusion of the land-sea warming ratio, this figure rises to 65 %, equivalent to almost 200 trillion dollars over 200 years.

Private climate change reporting: an emerging discourse of risk and opportunity?

Purpose – This paper aims to explore the nature of the emerging discourse of private climate change reporting, which takes place in one-on-one meetings between institutional investors and their investee companies. Design/methodology/approach – Semi-structured interviews were conducted with representatives from 20 UK investment institutions to derive data which was then coded and analysed, in order to derive a picture of the emerging discourse of private climate change reporting, using an interpretive methodological approach, in addition to explorative analysis using NVivo software. Findings – The authors find that private climate change reporting is dominated by a discourse of risk and risk management. This emerging risk discourse derives from institutional investors' belief that climate change represents a material risk, that it is the most salient sustainability issue, and that their clients require them to manage climate change-related risk within their portfolio investment. It is found that institutional investors are using the private reporting process to compensate for the acknowledged inadequacies of public climate change reporting. Contrary to evidence indicating corporate capture of public sustainability reporting, these findings suggest that the emerging private climate change reporting discourse is being captured by the institutional investment community. There is also evidence of an emerging discourse of opportunity in private climate change reporting as the institutional investors are increasingly aware of a range of ways in which climate change presents material opportunities for their investee companies to exploit. Lastly, the authors find an absence of any ethical discourse, such that private climate change reporting reinforces rather than challenges the “business case” status quo. Originality/value – Although there is a wealth of sustainability reporting research, there is no academic research on private climate change reporting. This paper attempts to fill this gap by providing rich interview evidence regarding the nature of the emerging private climate change reporting discourse.

Impact of climate change on stratospheric sudden warmings as simulated by the Canadian middle atmosphere model

The dynamics of Northern Hemisphere major midwinter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are examined using transient climate change simulations from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM). The simulated SSWs show good overall agreement with reanalysis data in terms of composite structure, statistics, and frequency. Using observed or model sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is found to make no significant difference to the SSWs, indicating that the use of model SSTs in the simulations extending into the future is not an issue. When SSWs are defined by the standard (wind based) definition, an absolute criterion, their frequency is found to increase by;60% by the end of this century, in conjunction with a;25% decrease in their temperature amplitude. However, when a relative criterion based on the northern annular mode index is used to define the SSWs, no future increase in frequency is found. The latter is consistent with the fact that the variance of 100-hPa daily heat flux anomalies is unaffected by climate change. The future increase in frequency of SSWs using the standard method is a result of the weakened climatological mean winds resulting from climate change, which make it easier for the SSW criterion to be met. A comparison of winters with and without SSWs reveals that the weakening of the climatological westerlies is not a result of SSWs. The Brewer–Dobson circulation is found to be stronger by ;10% during winters with SSWs, which is a value that does not change significantly in the future.

The national dialogue on behaviour change in UK climate policy: some observations on responsibility, agency and political dimensions

This chapter explores the politics around the role of agency in the UK climate change debate. Government interventions on the demand side of consumption have increasingly involved attempts to obtain greater traction with the values, attitudes and beliefs of citizens in relation to climate change and also in terms of influencing consumer behaviour at an individual level. With figures showing that approximately 40% of the UK’s carbon emissions are attributable to household and transport behaviour, policy initiatives have progressively focused on the facilitation of “sustainable behaviours”. Evidence suggests however, that mobilisation of pro-environmental attitudes in addressing the perceived “value-action gap” has so far had limited success. Research in this field suggests that there is a more significant and nuanced “gap” between context and behaviour; a relationship that perhaps provides a more adroit reflection of reasons why people do not necessarily react in the way that policy-makers anticipate. Tracing the development of the UK Government’s behaviour change agenda over the last decade, we posit that a core reason for the limitations of this programme relates to an excessively narrow focus on the individual. This has served to obscure some of the wider political and economic aspects of the debate in favour of a more simplified discussion. The second part of the chapter reports findings from a series of focus groups exploring some of the wider political views that people hold around household energy habits, purchase and use of domestic appliances, and transport behaviour-and discusses these insights in relation to the literature on the agenda’s apparent limitations. The chapter concludes by considering whether the aims of the Big Society approach (recently established by the UK’s Coalition Government) hold the potential to engage more directly with some of these issues or whether they merely constitute a “repackaging” of the individualism agenda.

Private climate change reporting: a discourse of risk and opportunity

Purpose – This paper aims to explore the nature of the emerging discourse of private climate change reporting, which takes place in one-on-one meetings between institutional investors and their investee companies. Design/methodology/approach – Semi-structured interviews were conducted with representatives from 20 UK investment institutions to derive data which was then coded and analysed, in order to derive a picture of the emerging discourse of private climate change reporting, using an interpretive methodological approach, in addition to explorative analysis using NVivo software. Findings – The authors find that private climate change reporting is dominated by a discourse of risk and risk management. This emerging risk discourse derives from institutional investors' belief that climate change represents a material risk, that it is the most salient sustainability issue, and that their clients require them to manage climate change-related risk within their portfolio investment. It is found that institutional investors are using the private reporting process to compensate for the acknowledged inadequacies of public climate change reporting. Contrary to evidence indicating corporate capture of public sustainability reporting, these findings suggest that the emerging private climate change reporting discourse is being captured by the institutional investment community. There is also evidence of an emerging discourse of opportunity in private climate change reporting as the institutional investors are increasingly aware of a range of ways in which climate change presents material opportunities for their investee companies to exploit. Lastly, the authors find an absence of any ethical discourse, such that private climate change reporting reinforces rather than challenges the “business case” status quo. Originality/value – Although there is a wealth of sustainability reporting research, there is no academic research on private climate change reporting. This paper attempts to fill this gap by providing rich interview evidence regarding the nature of the emerging private climate change reporting discourse.

The role of rules-based compliance systems in the new EU regulatory landscape: perspectives of institutional change

Purpose The research objective of this study is to understand how institutional changes to the EU regulatory landscape may affect corresponding institutionalized operational practices within financial organizations. Design/methodology/approach The study adopts an Investment Management System as its case and investigates different implementations of this system within eight financial organizations, predominantly focused on investment banking and asset management activities within capital markets. At the systems vendor site, senior systems consultants and client relationship managers were interviewed. Within the financial organizations, compliance, risk and systems experts were interviewed. Findings The study empirically tests modes of institutional change. Displacement and Layering were found to be the most prevalent modes. However, the study highlights how the outcomes of Displacement and Drift may be similar in effect as both modes may cause compliance gaps. The research highlights how changes in regulations may create gaps in systems and processes which, in the short term, need to be plugged by manual processes. Practical implications Vendors abilities to manage institutional change caused by Drift, Displacement, Layering and Conversion and their ability to efficiently and quickly translate institutional variables into structured systems has the power to ease the pain and cost of compliance as well as reducing the risk of breeches by reducing the need for interim manual systems. Originality/value The study makes a contribution by applying recent theoretical concepts of institutional change to the topic of regulatory change uses this analysis to provide insight into the effects of this new environment

Evaluating business value of IT towards optimisation of the application portfolio

Information technology has become heavily embedded in business operations. As business needs change over time, IT applications are expected to continue providing required support. Whether the existing IT applications are still fit for the business purpose they were intended or new IT applications should be introduced, is a strategic decision for business, IT and business-aligned IT. In this paper, we present a method which aims to analyse business functions and IT roles, and to evaluate business-aligned IT from both social and technical perspectives. The method introduces a set of techniques that systematically supports the evaluation of the existing IT applications in relation to their technical capabilities for maximising business value. Furthermore, we discuss the evaluation process and results which are illustrated and validated through a real-life case study of a UK borough council, and followed by discussion on implications for researchers and practitioners.

Sea surface temperature datasets for climate applications from Phase 1 of the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (SST CCI)

Sea surface temperature (SST) datasets have been generated from satellite observations for the period 1991–2010, intended for use in climate science applications. Attributes of the datasets specifically relevant to climate applications are: first, independence from in situ observations; second, effort to ensure homogeneity and stability through the time-series; third, context-specific uncertainty estimates attached to each SST value; and, fourth, provision of estimates of both skin SST (the fundamental measure- ment, relevant to air-sea fluxes) and SST at standard depth and local time (partly model mediated, enabling comparison with his- torical in situ datasets). These attributes in part reflect requirements solicited from climate data users prior to and during the project. Datasets consisting of SSTs on satellite swaths are derived from the Along-Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSRs) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRRs). These are then used as sole SST inputs to a daily, spatially complete, analysis SST product, with a latitude-longitude resolution of 0.05°C and good discrimination of ocean surface thermal features. A product user guide is available, linking to reports describing the datasets’ algorithmic basis, validation results, format, uncer- tainty information and experimental use in trial climate applications. Future versions of the datasets will span at least 1982–2015, better addressing the need in many climate applications for stable records of global SST that are at least 30 years in length.

Climate change: against despair

In the face of accelerating climate change and the parlous state of its politics, despair is tempting. This paper analyses two manifestations of despair about climate change related to (1) the inefficacy of personal emissions reductions, and (2) the inability to make a difference to climate change through personal emissions reductions. On the back of an analysis of despair as a loss of hope, the paper argues that the judgements grounding each form of despair are unsound. The paper concludes with consideration of the instrumental value of hope in effective agency to tackle climate change. Overall, the paper’s assessment of personal despair about climate change as philosophically unjustified provides a fresh perspective on aspects of the debate about how to frame climate change in public debate.

Economic valuation of an offshore wind farm in Greece: the role of individual’s base-state influences and beliefs in the value formation process

The increased concern for the impacts of climate change on the environment, along with the growing industry of renewable energy sources, and especially wind power, has made the valuation of environmental services and goods of great significance. Offshore wind energy is being exploited exponentially and its importance for renewable energy generation is increasing. We apply a double-bound dichotomous Contingent Valuation Method analysis in order to both a) estimating the Willingness to Pay (WTP) of Greek residents for green electricity produced by offshore wind farm located between the islands of Tinos and Andros and b) identifying factors behind respondents’ WTP including individual’s behaviour toward environment and individual’s views on climate change and renewable energy. A total of 141 respondents participated in the questionnaire. Results show that the respondents are willing to pay on average 20€ every two months through their electricity bill in return for carbon-free electricity and water saving from the wind farm. Respondents’ environmental consciousness and their perception towards climate change and renewable energy have a positive effect on their WTP.

Global change pressures on soils from land use and management

Soils are subject to varying degrees of direct or indirect human disturbance, constituting a major global change driver. Factoring out natural from direct and indirect human influence is not always straightforward, but some human activities have clear impacts. These include land use change, land management, and land degradation (erosion, compaction, sealing and salinization). The intensity of land use also exerts a great impact on soils, and soils are also subject to indirect impacts arising from human activity, such as acid deposition (sulphur and nitrogen) and heavy metal pollution. In this critical review, we report the state-of-the-art understanding of these global change pressures on soils, identify knowledge gaps and research challenges, and highlight actions and policies to minimise adverse environmental impacts arising from these global change drivers. Soils are central to considerations of what constitutes sustainable intensification. Therefore, ensuring that vulnerable and high environmental value soils are considered when protecting important habitats and ecosystems, will help to reduce the pressure on land from global change drivers. To ensure that soils are protected as part of wider environmental efforts, a global soil resilience programme should be considered, to monitor, recover or sustain soil fertility and function, and to enhance the ecosystem services provided by soils. Soils cannot, and should not, be considered in isolation of the ecosystems that they underpin and vice versa. The role of soils in supporting ecosystems and natural capital needs greater recognition. The lasting legacy of the International Year of Soils in 2015 should be to put soils at the centre of policy supporting environmental protection and sustainable development.

Recent progress in understanding and projecting regional and global mean sea-level change

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5’s assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003–2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993–2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likely range, indicating that there is a greater probability that sea level rise by 2100 will lie in this range with a corresponding decrease in the likelihood of an additional contribution of several tens of centimeters above the likely range. In view of the comparatively limited state of knowledge and understanding of rapid ice sheet dynamics, we continue to think that it is not yet possible to make reliable quantitative estimates of future GMSL rise outside the likely range. Projections of twenty-first century GMSL rise published since the AR5 depend on results from expert elicitation, but we have low confidence in conclusions based on these approaches. New work on regional projections and emergence of the anthropogenic signal suggests that the two commonly predicted features of future regional sea level change (the increasing tilt across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the dipole in the North Atlantic) are related to regional changes in wind stress and surface heat flux. Moreover, it is expected that sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing, particularly in regions of relatively low unforced variability such as the low-latitude Atlantic, will be detectable over most of the ocean by 2040. The east-west contrast of sea level trends in the Pacific observed since the early 1990s cannot be satisfactorily accounted for by climate models, nor yet definitively attributed either to unforced variability or forced climate change.

Perennial legumes native to Australia: a preliminary investigation of nutritive value and response to cutting

Six Australian native herbaceous perennial legumes (Lotus australis, Swainsona colutoides, Swainsona swainsonioides, Cullen tenax, Glycine tabacina and Kennedia prorepens) were assessed in the glasshouse for nutritive value, soluble condensed tannins and production of herbage in response to three cutting treatments (regrowth harvested every 4 and 6 weeks and plants left uncut for 12 weeks). The Mediterranean perennial legumes Medicago sativa and Lotus corniculatus were also included. Dry matter (DM) yield of some native legumes was comparable to L. corniculatus, but M. sativa produced more DM than all species except S. swainsonioides after 12 weeks of regrowth. Dry matter yield of all native legumes decreased with increased cutting frequency, indicating a susceptibility to frequent defoliation. Shoot in vitro dry matter digestibility (DMD) was high (>70%) in most native legumes, except G. tabacina (65%) and K. prorepens (55%). Crude protein ranged from 21-28% for all legumes except K. prorepens (12%). More frequent cutting resulted in higher DMD and crude protein in all species, except for the DMD of C. tenax and L. australis, which did not change. Concentrations of soluble condensed tannins were 2-9 g/kg DM in the Lotus spp., 10-18 g/kg DM in K. prorepens and negligible (<1 g/kg) in the other legumes. Of the native species, C. tenax, S. swainsonioides and L. australis showed the most promise for use as forage plants and further evaluation under field conditions is now warranted.

Reframing resistance to change: experience from General Motors Poland

This paper describes the successful introduction of a kaizen scheme in a General Motors factory plant in Gliwice, Poland. Employee value systems changed, despite the presence of strong, pre-existing values that might have inhibited this process. These findings are drawn on to examine the concept of ‘resistance to change’ and replace it with a notion of ‘functional persistence’. Our case study illustrates how assuming this position can aid the development of new work attitudes, as opposed to constraining the old ones.