Impact of stratospheric variability on tropospheric climate change

An improved stratospheric representation has been included in simulations with the Hadley Centre HadGEM1 coupled ocean atmosphere model with natural and anthropogenic forcings for the period 1979–2003. An improved stratospheric ozone dataset is employed that includes natural variations in ozone as well as the usual anthropogenic trends. In addition, in a second set of simulations the quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric equatorial zonal wind is also imposed using a relaxation towards ERA-40 zonal wind values. The resulting impact on tropospheric variability and trends is described. We show that the modelled cooling rate at the tropopause is enhanced by the improved ozone dataset and this improvement is even more marked when the QBO is also included. The same applies to warming trends in the upper tropical troposphere which are slightly reduced. Our stratospheric improvements produce a significant increase of internal variability but no change in the positive trend of annual mean global mean near-surface temperature. Warming rates are increased significantly over a large portion of the Arctic Ocean. The improved stratospheric representation, especially the QBO relaxation, causes a substantial reduction in near-surface temperature and precipitation response to the El Chichón eruption, especially in the tropical region. The winter increase in the phase of the northern annular mode observed in the aftermath of the two major recent volcanic eruptions is partly captured, especially after the El Chichón eruption. The positive trend in the southern annular mode (SAM) is increased and becomes statistically significant which demonstrates that the observed increase in the SAM is largely subject to internal variability in the stratosphere. The possible inclusion in simulations for future assessments of full ozone chemistry and a gravity wave scheme to internally generate a QBO is discussed.

Night-time tropospheric chemistry of the unsaturated alcohols (Z)-pent-2-en-1-ol and pent-1-en-3-ol: Kinetic studies of reactions of NO3 and N2O5 with stress-induced plant emissions

The night-time tropospheric chemistry of two stress-induced volatile organic compounds (VOCs), (Z)-pent-2-en-1-ol and pent-1-en-3-ol, has been studied at room temperature. Rate coefficients for reactions of the nitrate radical (NO3) with these pentenols were measured using the discharge-flow technique. Because of the relatively low volatility of these compounds, we employed off-axis continuous-wave cavity-enhanced absorption spectroscopy for detection of NO3 in order to be able to work in pseudo first-order conditions with the pentenols in large excess over NO3. The rate coefficients were determined to be (1.53 +/- 0.23) x 10(-13) and (1.39 +/- 0.19) x 10(-14) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) for reactions of NO3 with (Z)-pent-2-en-1-ol and pent-1-en-3-ol. An attempt to study the kinetics of these reactions with a relative-rate technique, using N2O5 as source of NO3 resulted in significantly higher apparent rate coefficients. Performing relative-rate experiments in known excesses of NO2 allowed us to determine the rate coefficients for the N2O5 reactions to be (5.0 +/- 2.8) x 10(-19) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) for (Z)-pent-2-en-1-ol, and (9.1 +/- 5.8) x 10(-19) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) for pent-1-en-3-ol. We show that these relatively slow reactions can indeed interfere with rate determinations in conventional relative-rate experiments.

Clear-sky biases in satellite infrared estimates of upper tropospheric humidity and its trends

We use microwave retrievals of upper tropospheric humidity (UTH) to estimate the impact of clear-sky-only sampling by infrared instruments on the distribution, variability and trends in UTH. Our method isolates the impact of the clear-sky-only sampling, without convolving errors from other sources. On daily time scales IR-sampled UTH contains large data gaps in convectively active areas, with only about 20-30 % of the tropics (30 S­ 30 N) being sampled. This results in a dry bias of about -9 %RH in the area-weighted tropical daily UTH time series. On monthly scales, maximum clear-sky bias (CSB) is up to -30 %RH over convectively active areas. The magnitude of CSB shows significant correlations with UTH itself (-0.5) and also with the variability in UTH (-0.6). We also show that IR-sampled UTH time series have higher interannual variability and smaller trends compared to microwave sampling. We argue that a significant part of the smaller trend results from the contrasting influence of diurnal drift in the satellite measurements on the wet and dry regions of the tropics.

A mechanism for the effect of tropospheric jet structure on the annular mode-like response to stratospheric forcing

For many climate forcings the dominant response of the extratropical circulation is a latitudinal shift of the tropospheric mid-latitude jets. The magnitude of this response appears to depend on climatological jet latitude in general circulation models (GCMs): lower latitude jets exhibit a larger shift. The reason for this latitude dependence is investigated for a particular forcing, heating of the equatorial stratosphere, which shifts the jet poleward. Spin-up ensembles with a simplified GCM are used to examine the evolution of the response for five different jet structures. These differ in the latitude of the eddy-driven jet, but have similar sub-tropical zonal winds. It is found that lower latitude jets exhibit a larger response due to stronger tropospheric eddy-mean flow feedbacks. A dominant feedback responsible for enhancing the poleward shift is an enhanced equatorward refraction of the eddies, resulting in an increased momentum flux, poleward of the low latitude critical line. The sensitivity of feedback strength to jet structure is associated with differences in the coherence of this behaviour across the spectrum of eddy phase speeds. In the configurations used, the higher latitude jets have a wider range of critical latitude locations. This reduces the coherence of the momentum flux anomalies associated with different phase speeds, with low phase speeds opposing the effect of high phase speeds. This suggests that, for a given sub-tropical zonal wind strength, the latitude of the eddy driven jet affects the feedback through its influence on the width of the region of westerly winds and the range of critical latitudes on the equatorward flank of the jet.

The influence of ozone precursor emissions from four world regions on tropospheric composition and radiative climate forcing

Ozone (O3) precursor emissions influence regional and global climate and air quality through changes in tropospheric O3 and oxidants, which also influence methane (CH4) and sulfate aerosols (SO42−). We examine changes in the tropospheric composition of O3, CH4, SO42− and global net radiative forcing (RF) for 20% reductions in global CH4 burden and in anthropogenic O3 precursor emissions (NOx, NMVOC, and CO) from four regions (East Asia, Europe and Northern Africa, North America, and South Asia) using the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, assessing uncertainty (mean ± 1 standard deviation) across multiple CTMs. We evaluate steady state O3 responses, including long-term feedbacks via CH4. With a radiative transfer model that includes greenhouse gases and the aerosol direct effect, we find that regional NOx reductions produce global, annually averaged positive net RFs (0.2 ± 0.6 to 1.7 ± 2 mWm−2/Tg N yr−1), with some variation among models. Negative net RFs result from reductions in global CH4 (−162.6 ± 2 mWm−2 for a change from 1760 to 1408 ppbv CH4) and regional NMVOC (−0.4 ± 0.2 to −0.7 ± 0.2 mWm−2/Tg C yr−1) and CO emissions (−0.13 ± 0.02 to −0.15 ± 0.02 mWm−2/Tg CO yr−1). Including the effect of O3 on CO2 uptake by vegetation likely makes these net RFs more negative by −1.9 to −5.2 mWm−2/Tg N yr−1, −0.2 to −0.7 mWm−2/Tg C yr−1, and −0.02 to −0.05 mWm−2/Tg CO yr−1. Net RF impacts reflect the distribution of concentration changes, where RF is affected locally by changes in SO42−, regionally to hemispherically by O3, and globally by CH4. Global annual average SO42− responses to oxidant changes range from 0.4 ± 2.6 to −1.9 ± 1.3 Gg for NOx reductions, 0.1 ± 1.2 to −0.9 ± 0.8 Gg for NMVOC reductions, and −0.09 ± 0.5 to −0.9 ± 0.8 Gg for CO reductions, suggesting additional research is needed. The 100-year global warming potentials (GWP100) are calculated for the global CH4 reduction (20.9 ± 3.7 without stratospheric O3 or water vapor, 24.2 ± 4.2 including those components), and for the regional NOx, NMVOC, and CO reductions (−18.7 ± 25.9 to −1.9 ± 8.7 for NOx, 4.8 ± 1.7 to 8.3 ± 1.9 for NMVOC, and 1.5 ± 0.4 to 1.7 ± 0.5 for CO). Variation in GWP100 for NOx, NMVOC, and CO suggests that regionally specific GWPs may be necessary and could support the inclusion of O3 precursors in future policies that address air quality and climate change simultaneously. Both global net RF and GWP100 are more sensitive to NOx and NMVOC reductions from South Asia than the other three regions.

Comment on "Tropospheric temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery in the 21st century" by Hu et al. (2011)

Abstract. In a recent paper Hu et al. (2011) suggest that the recovery of stratospheric ozone during the first half of this century will significantly enhance free tropospheric and surface warming caused by the anthropogenic increase of greenhouse gases, with the effects being most pronounced in Northern Hemisphere middle and high latitudes. These surprising results are based on a multi-model analysis of CMIP3 model simulations with and without prescribed stratospheric ozone recovery. Hu et al. suggest that in order to properly quantify the tropospheric and surface temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery, it is necessary to run coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models with stratospheric ozone chemistry. The results of such an experiment are presented here, using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model coupled to a three-dimensional ocean model. In contrast to Hu et al., we find a much smaller Northern Hemisphere tropospheric temperature response to ozone recovery, which is of opposite sign. We suggest that their result is an artifact of the incomplete removal of the large effect of greenhouse gas warming between the two different sets of models.

Stratospheric variability and tropospheric annular‐mode timescales

Climate models tend to exhibit much too persistent Southern Annular Mode (SAM) circulation anomalies in summer, compared to observations. Theoretical arguments suggest this bias may lead to an overly strong model response to anthropogenic forcing during this season, which is of interest since the largest observed changes in Southern Hemisphere high‐latitude climate over the last few decades have occurred in summer, and are congruent with the SAM. The origin of this model bias is examined here in the case of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model, using a novel technique to quantify the influence of stratospheric variability on tropospheric annular‐mode timescales. Part of the model bias is shown to be attributable to the too‐late breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex, which allows the tropospheric influence of stratospheric variability to extend into early summer. However, the analysis also reveals an enhanced summertime persistence of the model’s SAM that is unrelated to either stratospheric variability or the bias in model stratospheric climatology, and is thus of tropospheric origin. No such feature is evident in the Northern Hemisphere. The effect of stratospheric variability in lengthening tropospheric annular‐mode timescales is evident in both hemispheres. While in the Southern Hemisphere the effect is restricted to late‐spring/early summer, in the Northern Hemisphere it can occur throughout the winter‐spring season, with the seasonality of peak timescales exhibiting considerable variability between different 50 year sections of the same simulation.

Transient climate change simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM including the tropospheric sulfur cycle

The time-dependent climate response to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols is studied using a coupled general circulation model of the atmosphere and the ocean (ECHAM4/OPYC3). The concentrations of the well-mixed greenhouse gases like CO2, CH4, N2O, and CFCs are prescribed for the past (1860–1990) and projected into the future according to International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario IS92a. In addition, the space–time distribution of tropospheric ozone is prescribed, and the tropospheric sulfur cycle is calculated within the coupled model using sulfur emissions of the past and projected into the future (IS92a). The radiative impact of the aerosols is considered via both the direct and the indirect (i.e., through cloud albedo) effect. It is shown that the simulated trend in sulfate deposition since the end of the last century is broadly consistent with ice core measurements, and the calculated radiative forcings from preindustrial to present time are within the uncertainty range estimated by IPCC. Three climate perturbation experiments are performed, applying different forcing mechanisms, and the results are compared with those obtained from a 300-yr unforced control experiment. As in previous experiments, the climate response is similar, but weaker, if aerosol effects are included in addition to greenhouse gases. One notable difference to previous experiments is that the strength of the Indian summer monsoon is not fundamentally affected by the inclusion of aerosol effects. Although the monsoon is damped compared to a greenhouse gas only experiment, it is still more vigorous than in the control experiment. This different behavior, compared to previous studies, is the result of the different land–sea distribution of aerosol forcing. Somewhat unexpected, the intensity of the global hydrological cycle becomes weaker in a warmer climate if both direct and indirect aerosol effects are included in addition to the greenhouse gases. This can be related to anomalous net radiative cooling of the earth’s surface through aerosols, which is balanced by reduced turbulent transfer of both sensible and latent heat from the surface to the atmosphere.

Toward monitoring the tropospheric temperature by means of a general circulation model

The recent global tropospheric temperature trend can be reproduced by climate models that are forced only by observed sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. In this study, simulations with the Hamburg climate model (ECHAM) are compared to temperatures from microwave sounding units (MSU) and to reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. There is overall agreement of observed and simulated tropospheric temperature anomalies in many regions, in particular in the tropics and over the oceans, which lack conventional observing systems. This provides the opportunity to link physically different quantities, such as surface observations or analyses (SST) and satellite soundings (MSU) by means of a general circulation model. The proposed method can indicate inconsistencies between MSU temperatures and SSTs and has apparently done so. Differences between observed and simulated tropospheric temperature anomalies can partly be attributed to stratospheric aerosol variations due to major volcanic eruptions.

On the tropospheric response to anomalous stratospheric wave drag and radiative heating

Observational and numerical evidence suggest that variability in the extratropical stratospheric circulation has a demonstrable impact on tropospheric variability on intraseasonal time scales. In this study, it is demonstrated that the amplitude of the observed tropospheric response to vacillations in the stratospheric flow is quantitatively similar to the zonal-mean balanced response to the anomalous wave forcing at stratospheric levels. It is further demonstrated that the persistence of the tropospheric response is consistent with the impact of anomalous diabatic heating in the polar stratosphere as stratospheric temperatures relax to climatology. The results contradict previous studies that suggest that variations in stratospheric wave drag are too weak to account for the attendant changes in the tropospheric flow. However, the results also reveal that stratospheric processes alone cannot account for the observed meridional redistribution of momentum within the troposphere.

A Lagrangian model of air-mass photochemistry and mixing using a trajectory ensemble: the Cambridge Tropospheric Trajectory model of Chemistry And Transport (CiTTyCAT) version 4.2

A Lagrangian model of photochemistry and mixing is described (CiTTyCAT, stemming from the Cambridge Tropospheric Trajectory model of Chemistry And Transport), which is suitable for transport and chemistry studies throughout the troposphere. Over the last five years, the model has been developed in parallel at several different institutions and here those developments have been incorporated into one "community" model and documented for the first time. The key photochemical developments include a new scheme for biogenic volatile organic compounds and updated emissions schemes. The key physical development is to evolve composition following an ensemble of trajectories within neighbouring air-masses, including a simple scheme for mixing between them via an evolving "background profile", both within the boundary layer and free troposphere. The model runs along trajectories pre-calculated using winds and temperature from meteorological analyses. In addition, boundary layer height and precipitation rates, output from the analysis model, are interpolated to trajectory points and used as inputs to the mixing and wet deposition schemes. The model is most suitable in regimes when the effects of small-scale turbulent mixing are slow relative to advection by the resolved winds so that coherent air-masses form with distinct composition and strong gradients between them. Such air-masses can persist for many days while stretching, folding and thinning. Lagrangian models offer a useful framework for picking apart the processes of air-mass evolution over inter-continental distances, without being hindered by the numerical diffusion inherent to global Eulerian models. The model, including different box and trajectory modes, is described and some output for each of the modes is presented for evaluation. The model is available for download from a Subversion-controlled repository by contacting the corresponding authors.

Contributions to twentieth century total column ozone change from halocarbons, tropospheric ozone precursors, and climate change

We investigate ozone changes from preindustrial times to the present using a chemistry-climate model. The influence of changes in physical climate, ozone-depleting substances, N2O, and tropospheric ozone precursors is estimated using equilibrium simulations with these different factors set at either preindustrial or present-day values. When these effects are combined, the entire decrease in total column ozone from preindustrial to present day is very small (–1.8 DU) in the global annual average, though with significant decreases in total column ozone over large parts of the Southern Hemisphere during austral spring and widespread increases in column ozone over the Northern Hemisphere during boreal summer. A significant contribution to the total ozone column change is the increase in lower stratospheric ozone associated with the increase in ozone precursors (5.9 DU). Also noteworthy is the near cancellation of the global average climate change effect on ozone (3.5 DU) by the increase in N2O (–3.9 DU).

Detection of lower tropospheric responses to solar energetic particles at midlatitudes

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) occasionally contribute additional atmospheric ionization beyond that arising from the usual galactic cosmic ray background. During an SEP event associated with a solar flare on April 11, 2013, the vertical ionization rate profile obtained using a balloon-borne detector showed enhanced ionization with a 26% increase at 20 km, over Reading, United Kingdom. Fluctuations in atmospheric electrical parameters were also detected at the surface, beneath the balloon’s trajectory. As no coincident changes in geomagnetism occurred, the electrical fluctuations are very likely to be associated with increased ionization, as observed by the balloon measurements. The lack of response of surface neutron monitors during this event indicates that energetic particles that are not detected at the surface by neutron monitors can nevertheless enter and influence the atmosphere’s weather-generating regions.

The SPARC Data Initiative: Comparison of upper troposphere/lower stratosphere ozone climatologies from limb-viewing instruments and the nadir-viewing Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer

We present the first comprehensive intercomparison of currently available satellite ozone climatologies in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) (300–70 hPa) as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) Data Initiative. The Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) instrument is the only nadir-viewing instrument in this initiative, as well as the only instrument with a focus on tropospheric composition. We apply the TES observational operator to ozone climatologies from the more highly vertically resolved limb-viewing instruments. This minimizes the impact of differences in vertical resolution among the instruments and allows identification of systematic differences in the large-scale structure and variability of UTLS ozone. We find that the climatologies from most of the limb-viewing instruments show positive differences (ranging from 5 to 75%) with respect to TES in the tropical UTLS, and comparison to a “zonal mean” ozonesonde climatology indicates that these differences likely represent a positive bias for p ≤ 100 hPa. In the extratropics, there is good agreement among the climatologies regarding the timing and magnitude of the ozone seasonal cycle (differences in the peak-to-peak amplitude of <15%) when the TES observational operator is applied, as well as very consistent midlatitude interannual variability. The discrepancies in ozone temporal variability are larger in the tropics, with differences between the data sets of up to 55% in the seasonal cycle amplitude. However, the differences among the climatologies are everywhere much smaller than the range produced by current chemistry-climate models, indicating that the multiple-instrument ensemble is useful for quantitatively evaluating these models.

Review: the predictability of the extra-tropical stratosphere on monthly timescales and its impact on the skill of tropospheric forecasts

Extreme variability of the winter- and spring-time stratospheric polar vortex has been shown to affect extratropical tropospheric weather. Therefore, reducing stratospheric forecast error may be one way to improve the skill of tropospheric weather forecasts. In this review, the basis for this idea is examined. A range of studies of different stratospheric extreme vortex events shows that they can be skilfully forecasted beyond five days and into the sub-seasonal range (0-30 days) in some cases. Separate studies show that typical errors in forecasting a stratospheric extreme vortex event can alter tropospheric forecasts skill by 5-7% in the extratropics on sub-seasonal timescales. Thus understanding what limits stratospheric predictability is of significant interest to operational forecasting centres. Both limitations in forecasting tropospheric planetary waves and stratospheric model biases have been shown to be important in this context.