Understanding projections of sea level rise in a Hadley Centre coupled climate model

Sea level changes resulting from CO2-induced climate changes in ocean density and circulation have been investigated in a series of idealised experiments with the Hadley Centre HadCM3 AOGCM. Changes in the mass of the ocean were not included. In the global mean, salinity changes have a negligible effect compared with the thermal expansion of the ocean. Regionally, sea level changes are projected to deviate greatly from the global mean (standard deviation is 40% of the mean). Changes in surface fluxes of heat, freshwater and wind stress are all found to produce significant and distinct regional sea level changes, wind stress changes being the most important and the cause of several pronounced local features, while heat and freshwater flux changes affect large parts of the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Regional change is related mainly to density changes, with a relatively small contribution in mid and high latitudes from change in the barotropic circulation. Regional density change has an important contribution from redistribution of ocean heat content. In general, unlike in the global mean, the regional pattern of sea level change due to density change appears to be influenced almost as much by salinity changes as by temperature changes, often in opposition. Such compensation is particularly marked in the North Atlantic, where it is consistent with recent observed changes. We suggest that density compensation is not a property of climate change specifically, but a general behavior of the ocean.

Krakatoa lives: The effect of volcanic eruptions on ocean heat content and thermal expansion

A suite of climate model experiments indicates that 20th Century increases in ocean heat content and sea-level ( via thermal expansion) were substantially reduced by the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa. The volcanically-induced cooling of the ocean surface is subducted into deeper ocean layers, where it persists for decades. Temporary reductions in ocean heat content associated with the comparable eruptions of El Chichon ( 1982) and Pinatubo ( 1991) were much shorter lived because they occurred relative to a non-stationary background of large, anthropogenically-forced ocean warming. Our results suggest that inclusion of the effects of Krakatoa ( and perhaps even earlier eruptions) is important for reliable simulation of 20th century ocean heat uptake and thermal expansion. Inter-model differences in the oceanic thermal response to Krakatoa are large and arise from differences in external forcing, model physics, and experimental design. Systematic experimentation is required to quantify the relative importance of these factors. The next generation of historical forcing experiments may require more careful treatment of pre-industrial volcanic aerosol loadings.

A model study of oceanic mechanisms affecting Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature during the 1997-98 El Niño

In this study, the processes affecting sea surface temperature variability over the 1992–98 period, encompassing the very strong 1997–98 El Niño event, are analyzed. A tropical Pacific Ocean general circulation model, forced by a combination of weekly ERS1–2 and TAO wind stresses, and climatological heat and freshwater fluxes, is first validated against observations. The model reproduces the main features of the tropical Pacific mean state, despite a weaker than observed thermal stratification, a 0.1 m s−1 too strong (weak) South Equatorial Current (North Equatorial Countercurrent), and a slight underestimate of the Equatorial Undercurrent. Good agreement is found between the model dynamic height and TOPEX/Poseidon sea level variability, with correlation/rms differences of 0.80/4.7 cm on average in the 10°N–10°S band. The model sea surface temperature variability is a bit weak, but reproduces the main features of interannual variability during the 1992–98 period. The model compares well with the TAO current variability at the equator, with correlation/rms differences of 0.81/0.23 m s−1 for surface currents. The model therefore reproduces well the observed interannual variability, with wind stress as the only interannually varying forcing. This good agreement with observations provides confidence in the comprehensive three-dimensional circulation and thermal structure of the model. A close examination of mixed layer heat balance is thus undertaken, contrasting the mean seasonal cycle of the 1993–96 period and the 1997–98 El Niño. In the eastern Pacific, cooling by exchanges with the subsurface (vertical advection, mixing, and entrainment), the atmospheric forcing, and the eddies (mainly the tropical instability waves) are the three main contributors to the heat budget. In the central–western Pacific, the zonal advection by low-frequency currents becomes the main contributor. Westerly wind bursts (in December 1996 and March and June 1997) were found to play a decisive role in the onset of the 1997–98 El Niño. They contributed to the early warming in the eastern Pacific because the downwelling Kelvin waves that they excited diminished subsurface cooling there. But it is mainly through eastward advection of the warm pool that they generated temperature anomalies in the central Pacific. The end of El Niño can be linked to the large-scale easterly anomalies that developed in the western Pacific and spread eastward, from the end of 1997 onward. In the far-western Pacific, because of the shallower than normal thermocline, these easterlies cooled the SST by vertical processes. In the central Pacific, easterlies pushed the warm pool back to the west. In the east, they led to a shallower thermocline, which ultimately allowed subsurface cooling to resume and to quickly cool the surface layer.

Low-molecular-weight gelators: Elucidating the principles of gelation based on gelator solubility and a cooperative self-assembly model

This paper highlights the key role played by solubility in influencing gelation and demonstrates that many facets of the gelation process depend on this vital parameter. In particular, we relate thermal stability (T-gel) and minimum gelation concentration (MGC) values of small-molecule gelation in terms of the solubility and cooperative self-assembly of gelator building blocks. By employing a van't Hoff analysis of solubility data, determined from simple NMR measurements, we are able to generate T-calc values that reflect the calculated temperature for complete solubilization of the networked gelator. The concentration dependence of T-calc allows the previously difficult to rationalize "plateau-region" thermal stability values to be elucidated in terms of gelator molecular design. This is demonstrated for a family of four gelators with lysine units attached to each end of an aliphatic diamine, with different peripheral groups (Z or Bee) in different locations on the periphery of the molecule. By tuning the peripheral protecting groups of the gelators, the solubility of the system is modified, which in turn controls the saturation point of the system and hence controls the concentration at which network formation takes place. We report that the critical concentration (C-crit) of gelator incorporated into the solid-phase sample-spanning network within the gel is invariant of gelator structural design. However, because some systems have higher solubilities, they are less effective gelators and require the application of higher total concentrations to achieve gelation, hence shedding light on the role of the MGC parameter in gelation. Furthermore, gelator structural design also modulates the level of cooperative self-assembly through solubility effects, as determined by applying a cooperative binding model to NMR data. Finally, the effect of gelator chemical design on the spatial organization of the networked gelator was probed by small-angle neutron and X-ray scattering (SANS/SAXS) on the native gel, and a tentative self-assembly model was proposed.

Predicting the thermal inactivation of bacteria in a solid matrix: simulation studies on the relative effects of microbial thermal resistance parameters and process conditions

A combined mathematical model for predicting heat penetration and microbial inactivation in a solid body heated by conduction was tested experimentally by inoculating agar cylinders with Salmonella typhimurium or Enterococcus faecium and heating in a water bath. Regions of growth where bacteria had survived after heating were measured by image analysis and compared with model predictions. Visualisation of the regions of growth was improved by incorporating chromogenic metabolic indicators into the agar. Preliminary tests established that the model performed satisfactorily with both test organisms and with cylinders of different diameter. The model was then used in simulation studies in which the parameters D, z, inoculum size, cylinder diameter and heating temperature were systematically varied. These simulations showed that the biological variables D, z and inoculum size had a relatively small effect on the time needed to eliminate bacteria at the cylinder axis in comparison with the physical variables heating temperature and cylinder diameter, which had a much greater relative effect. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Modelling oil absorption during post-frying cooling - I: model development

Several studies have highlighted the importance of the cooling period in oil absorption in deep-fat fried products. Specifically, it has been established that the largest proportion of oil which ends up into the food, is sucked into the porous crust region after the fried product is removed from the oil bath, stressing the importance of this time interval. The main objective of this paper was to develop a predictive mechanistic model that can be used to understand the principles behind post-frying cooling oil absorption kinetics, which can also help identifying the key parameters that affect the final oil intake by the fried product. The model was developed for two different geometries, an infinite slab and an infinite cylinder, and was divided into two main sub-models, one describing the immersion frying period itself and the other describing the post-frying cooling period. The immersion frying period was described by a transient moving-front model that considered the movement of the crust/core interface, whereas post-frying cooling oil absorption was considered to be a pressure driven flow mediated by capillary forces. A key element in the model was the hypothesis that oil suction would only begin once a positive pressure driving force had developed. The mechanistic model was based on measurable physical and thermal properties, and process parameters with no need of empirical data fitting, and can be used to study oil absorption in any deep-fat fried product that satisfies the assumptions made.

The Ca(v)2.3 calcium channel antagonist SNX-482 reduces dorsal horn neuronal responses in a rat model of chronic neuropathic pain

Neuropathic pain is a difficult state to treat, characterized by alterations in sensory processing that can include allodynia (touch-evoked pain). Evidence exists for nerve damage-induced plasticity in both transmission and modulatory systems, including changes in voltage-dependent calcium channel (VDCC) expression and function; however, the role of Ca(v)2.3 calcium channels has not clearly been defined. Here, the effects of SNX-482, a selective Ca(v)2.3 antagonist, on sensory transmission at the spinal cord level have been investigated in the rat. The spinal nerve ligation (SNL) model of chronic neuropathic pain [Kim & Chung, (1992) Pain, 50, 355-363] was used to induce mechanical allodynia, as tested on the ipsilateral hindpaw. In vivo electrophysiological measurements of dorsal horn neuronal responses to innocuous and noxious electrical and natural stimuli were made after SNL and compared to sham-operated animals. Spinal SNX-482 (0.5-4 mu g/50 mu L) exerted dose-related inhibitions of noxious C-fibre- and A delta-fibre-mediated neuronal responses in conditions of neuropathy, but not in sham-operated animals. Measures of spinal cord hyperexcitability and nociception were most susceptible to SNX-482. In contrast, non-noxious A beta-mediated responses were not affected by SNX-482. Moreover, responses to innocuous mechanical and also thermal stimuli were more sensitive to SNX-482 in SNL than control animals. This study is the first to demonstrate an antinociceptive role for SNX-482-sensitive channels in dorsal horn neurons during neuropathy. These data are consistent with plasticity in Ca(V)2.3 calcium channel expression and suggest a potential selective target to reduce nociceptive transmission during conditions of nerve damage.

Liposomes and skin: From drug delivery to model membranes

The early eighties saw the introduction of liposomes as skin drug delivery systems, initially promoted primarily for localised effects with minimal systemic delivery. Subsequently, a novel ultradeformable vesicular system (termed "Transfersomes" by the inventors) was reported for transdermal delivery with an efficiency similar to subcutaneous injection. Further research illustrated that the mechanisms of liposome action depended on the application regime and the vesicle composition and morphology. Ethical, health and supply problems with human skin have encouraged researchers to use skin models. 'IYaditional models involved polymer membranes and animal tissue, but whilst of value for release studies, such models are not always good mimics for the complex human skin barrier, particularly with respect to the stratum corneal intercellular lipid domains. These lipids have a multiply bilayered organization, a composition and organization somewhat similar to liposomes, Consequently researchers have used vesicles as skin model membranes. Early work first employed phospholipid liposomes and tested their interactions with skin penetration enhancers, typically using thermal analysis and spectroscopic analyses. Another approach probed how incorporation of compounds into liposomes led to the loss of entrapped markers, analogous to "fluidization" of stratum corneum lipids on treatment with a penetration enhancer. Subsequently scientists employed liposomes formulated with skin lipids in these types of studies. Following a brief description of the nature of the skin barrier to transdermal drug delivery and the use of liposomes in drug delivery through skin, this article critically reviews the relevance of using different types of vesicles as a model for human skin in permeation enhancement studies, concentrating primarily on liposomes after briefly surveying older models. The validity of different types of liposome is considered and traditional skin models are compared to vesicular model membranes for their precision and accuracy as skin membrane mimics. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A spectral performance model for the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (6-18µm)

A spectral performance model, designed to simulate the system spectral throughput for each of the 21 channels in the HIRDLS radiometer, is described. This model uses the measured spectral characteristics of each of the components in the optical train, appropriately corrected for their optical environment, to determine the end-to-end spectral throughput profile for each channel. This profile is then combined with the predicted thermal emission from the atmosphere, arising from the height of interest, to establish an in-band (wanted) to out-of-band (unwanted) radiance ratio. The results from the use of the model demonstrate that the instrument level radiometric requirements for the instrument will be achieved. The optical arrangement and spectral design requirements for filtering in the HIRDLS instrument are described together with a presentation of the performance achieved for the complete set of manufactured filters. Compliance of the predicted passband throughput model to the spectral positioning requi rements of the instrument is also demonstrated.

Thermal comfort assessment in a non-uniform thermal environment

This paper presents results for thermal comfort assessment in non-uniform thermal environments. Three types of displacement ventilation (DV) units that created stratified condition in an environmental test chamber have been selected to carry out the thermal comfort assessment: a flat diffuser (DV1), semi-circular diffuser (DV2), and floor swirl diffuser (DV3). The CBE (Center for the Built Environment at Berkeley) comfort model was implemented in this study to assess the occupant’s thermal comfort for the three DV types. The CBE model predicted the occupant’s mean skin as well as local skin temperatures very well when compared with measurements found in the literature, while it underestimated the occupant’s core temperature. The predicted occupant’s thermal sensation and thermal comfort for the case of (DV2) were the best. Therefore, the semi-circular diffuser (DV2) provided better thermal comfort for the occupant in comparison with the other two DV types.

A simplified mathematical model for urban microclimate simulation

Techniques for modelling urban microclimates and urban block surfaces temperatures are desired by urban planners and architects for strategic urban designs at the early design stages. This paper introduces a simplified mathematical model for urban simulations (UMsim) including urban surfaces temperatures and microclimates. The nodal network model has been developed by integrating coupled thermal and airflow model. Direct solar radiation, diffuse radiation, reflected radiation, long-wave radiation, heat convection in air and heat transfer in the exterior walls and ground within the complex have been taken into account. The relevant equations have been solved using the finite difference method under the Matlab platform. Comparisons have been conducted between the data produced from the simulation and that from an urban experimental study carried out in a real architectural complex on the campus of Chongqing University, China in July 2005 and January 2006. The results show a satisfactory agreement between the two sets of data. The UMsim can be used to simulate the microclimates, in particular the surface temperatures of urban blocks, therefore it can be used to assess the impact of urban surfaces properties on urban microclimates. The UMsim will be able to produce robust data and images of urban environments for sustainable urban design.

Low-order dynamical behavior in the martian atmosphere: Diagnosis of general circulation model results

The hypothesis of a low dimensional martian climate attractor is investigated by the application of the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to a simulation of martian atmospheric circulation using the UK Mars general circulation model (UK-MGCM). In this article we focus on a time series of the interval between autumn and winter in the northern hemisphere, when baroclinic activity is intense. The POD is a statistical technique that allows the attribution of total energy (TE) to particular structures embedded in the UK-MGCM time-evolving circulation. These structures are called empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). Ordering the EOFs according to their associated energy content, we were able to determine the necessary number to account for a chosen amount of atmospheric TE. We show that for Mars a large fraction of TE is explained by just a few EOFs (with 90% TE in 23 EOFs), which apparently support the initial hypothesis. We also show that the resulting EOFs represent classical types of atmospheric motion, such as thermal tides and transient waves. Thus, POD is shown to be an efficient method for the identification of different classes of atmospheric modes. It also provides insight into the non-linear interaction of these modes.

Generation of inertia-gravity waves in the rotating thermal annulus by a localised boundary layer instability

Waves with periods shorter than the inertial period exist in the atmosphere (as inertia-gravity waves) and in the oceans (as Poincaré and internal gravity waves). Such waves owe their origin to various mechanisms, but of particular interest are those arising either from local secondary instabilities or spontaneous emission due to loss of balance. These phenomena have been studied in the laboratory, both in the mechanically-forced and the thermally-forced rotating annulus. Their generation mechanisms, especially in the latter system, have not yet been fully understood, however. Here we examine short period waves in a numerical model of the rotating thermal annulus, and show how the results are consistent with those from earlier laboratory experiments. We then show how these waves are consistent with being inertia-gravity waves generated by a localised instability within the thermal boundary layer, the location of which is determined by regions of strong shear and downwelling at certain points within a large-scale baroclinic wave flow. The resulting instability launches small-scale inertia-gravity waves into the geostrophic interior of the flow. Their behaviour is captured in fully nonlinear numerical simulations in a finite-difference, 3D Boussinesq Navier-Stokes model. Such a mechanism has many similarities with those responsible for launching small- and meso-scale inertia-gravity waves in the atmosphere from fronts and local convection.

Prediction of the thermal performance of horizontal-coupled ground source heat exchangers

The thermal performance of a horizontal-coupled ground-source heat pump system has been assessed both experimentally and numerically in a UK climate. A numerical simulation of thermal behaviour of the horizontal-coupled heat exchanger for combinations of different ambient air temperatures, wind speeds, refrigerant temperature and soil thermal properties was studied using a validated 2D transient model. The specific heat extraction by the heat exchanger increased with ambient temperature and soil thermal conductivity, however it decreased with increasing refrigerant temperature. The effect of wind speed was negligible.

Determination of the degradation kinetics of anthocyanins in a model juice system using isothermal and non-isothermal methods

The effect of temperature on the degradation of blackcurrant anthocyanins in a model juice system was determined over a temperature range of 4–140 °C. The thermal degradation of anthocyanins followed pseudo first-order kinetics. From 4–100 °C an isothermal method was used to determine the kinetic parameters. In order to mimic the temperature profile in retort systems, a non-isothermal method was applied to determine the kinetic parameters in the model juice over the temperature range 110–140 °C. The results from both isothermal and non-isothermal methods fit well together, indicating that the non-isothermal procedure is a reliable mathematical method to determine the kinetics of anthocyanin degradation. The reaction rate constant (k) increased from 0.16 (±0.01) × 10−3 to 9.954 (±0.004) h−1 at 4 and 140 °C, respectively. The temperature dependence of the rate of anthocyanin degradation was modelled by an extension of the Arrhenius equation, which showed a linear increase in the activation energy with temperature.