Air flow influences on local climate: observed and simulated mean relationships for the United Kingdom

Synoptic-scale air flow variability over the United Kingdom is measured on a daily time scale by following previous work to define 3 indices: geostrophic flow strength, vorticity and direction. Comparing the observed distribution of air flow index values with those determined from a simulation with the Hadley Centre’s global climate model (HadCM2) identifies some minor systematic biases in the model’s synoptic circulation but demonstrates that the major features are well simulated. The relationship between temperature and precipitation from parts of the United Kingdom and these air flow indices (either singly or in pairs) is found to be very similar in both the observations and model output; indeed the simulated and observed precipitation relationships are found to be almost interchangeable in a quantitative sense. These encouraging results imply that some reliability can be assumed for single grid-box and regional output from this climate model; this applies only to those grid boxes evaluated here (which do not have high or complex orography), only to the portion of variability that is controlled by synoptic air flow variations, and only to those surface variables considered here (temperature and precipitation).

Sustainable horticultural supply chain: the case of local food networks in the United Kingdom

In the UK there is widespread support from Government, media and consumers for local food networks. These have the potential to provide a more sustainable supply chain and are well suited to the unique production and consumption characteristics of horticultural products. In terms of food marketing, local food is in its relative infancy and is still without any formal definition. This lack of clarity hampers research activities. Although the profile of local food buyers and their expectations has been explored, our knowledge of its social, economic and environmental aspects is minimal. This research contributes by exploring the structure and scope of local food activities in the UK in terms of profiling those specialised retail outlets who provide consumers with the opportunity to purchase locally grown horticultural products.

A study of the arrival over the United Kingdom in April 2010 of the Eyjafjallajökull ash cloud using ground-based lidar and numerical simulations

We make a qualitative and quantitative comparison of numericalsimulations of the ashcloud generated by the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in April2010 with ground-basedlidar measurements at Exeter and Cardington in southern England. The numericalsimulations are performed using the Met Office’s dispersion model, NAME (Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment). The results show that NAME captures many of the features of the observed ashcloud. The comparison enables us to estimate the fraction of material which survives the near-source fallout processes and enters into the distal plume. A number of simulations are performed which show that both the structure of the ashcloudover southern England and the concentration of ash within it are particularly sensitive to the height of the eruption column (and the consequent estimated mass emission rate), to the shape of the vertical source profile and the level of prescribed ‘turbulent diffusion’ (representing the mixing by the unresolved eddies) in the free troposphere with less sensitivity to the timing of the start of the eruption and the sedimentation of particulates in the distal plume.

Portfolio size and the reduction of dispersion: the case of the United Kingdom commercial real estate market

This paper investigates the potential benefits and limitations of equal and value-weighted diversification using as the example the UK institutional property market. To achieve this it uses the largest sample (392) of actual property returns that is currently available, over the period 1981 to 1996. To evaluate these issues two approaches are adopted; first, an analysis of the correlations within the sectors and regions and secondly simulations of property portfolios of increasing size constructed both naively and with value-weighting. Using these methods it is shown that the extent of possible risk reduction is limited because of the high positive correlations between assets in any portfolio, even when naively diversified. It is also shown that portfolios exhibit high levels of variability around the average risk, suggesting that previous work seriously understates the number of properties needed to achieve a satisfactory level of diversification. The results have implications for the development and maintenance of a property portfolio because they indicate that the achievable level of risk reduction depends upon the availability of assets, the weighting system used and the investor’s risk tolerance.

Rodents as carriers of disease: preliminary studies in the United Kingdom

The University of Reading has conducted some preliminary work on the prevalence of Campylobacter spp., Salmonella spp. and Arenavirus in Norway rats trapped from farms and semi-urban areas in central southern England. Campylobacter is the cause of a notificable disease in the UK, with 57,772 cases reported for England and Wales in 2009. Transmission to humans is believed to be primarily through undercooked meat, from contaminated water, and through contact with pets; and symptoms include a high temperature, severe diarrhoea, vomiting and abdominal pain. Ninety-seven per-cent of sporadic cases have been attributed to farm animals, and in particular the meat and poultry industry. There are eighteen species of Campylobacter, eleven of which can be pathogenic to humans; although the principal species that cause gastrointestinal disease in humans are C. jejuni and C. coli; although C. lari, C. helveticus and C. upsaliensis are also involved. Salmonella species also causes a gastrointestinal disease, and in the UK, is common in chicken and has been linked to egg production. Species are typed using antigen specific agglutination tests, or by their susceptibility to specific bacteriophage. Some strains are known to be linked with human disease (eg. S. enteritidis PT4).