A comparison of three different models for estimating relative risk in meta-analysis of clinical trials under unobserved heterogeneity

We focus on the comparison of three statistical models used to estimate the treatment effect in metaanalysis when individually pooled data are available. The models are two conventional models, namely a multi-level and a model based upon an approximate likelihood, and a newly developed model, the profile likelihood model which might be viewed as an extension of the Mantel-Haenszel approach. To exemplify these methods, we use results from a meta-analysis of 22 trials to prevent respiratory tract infections. We show that by using the multi-level approach, in the case of baseline heterogeneity, the number of clusters or components is considerably over-estimated. The approximate and profile likelihood method showed nearly the same pattern for the treatment effect distribution. To provide more evidence two simulation studies are accomplished. The profile likelihood can be considered as a clear alternative to the approximate likelihood model. In the case of strong baseline heterogeneity, the profile likelihood method shows superior behaviour when compared with the multi-level model. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparison of subspace and ARX models of a waveguide's terahertz transient response after optimal wavelet filtering

A quasi-optical deembedding technique for characterizing waveguides is demonstrated using wide-band time-resolved terahertz spectroscopy. A transfer function representation is adopted for the description of the signal in the input and output port of the waveguides. The time-domain responses were discretized and the waveguide transfer function was obtained through a parametric approach in the z-domain after describing the system with an AutoRegressive with eXogenous input (ARX), as well as with a state-space model. Prior to the identification procedure, filtering was performed in the wavelet domain to minimize both signal distortion, as well as the noise propagating in the ARX and subspace models. The optimal filtering procedure used in the wavelet domain for the recorded time-domain signatures is described in detail. The effect of filtering prior to the identification procedures is elucidated with the aid of pole-zero diagrams. Models derived from measurements of terahertz transients in a precision WR-8 waveguide adjustable short are presented.

Modeling entangled dynamics: comparison between stochastic single-chain and multichain models

To test the effectiveness of stochastic single-chain models in describing the dynamics of entangled polymers, we systematically compare one such model; the slip-spring model; to a multichain model solved using stochastic molecular dynamics(MD) simulations (the Kremer-Grest model). The comparison involves investigating if the single-chain model can adequately describe both a microscopic dynamical and a macroscopic rheological quantity for a range of chain lengths. Choosing a particular chain length in the slip-spring model, the parameter values that best reproduce the mean-square displacement of a group of monomers is determined by fitting toMDdata. Using the same set of parameters we then test if the predictions of the mean-square displacements for other chain lengths agree with the MD calculations. We followed this by a comparison of the time dependent stress relaxation moduli obtained from the two models for a range of chain lengths. After identifying a limitation of the original slip-spring model in describing the static structure of the polymer chain as seen in MD, we remedy this by introducing a pairwise repulsive potential between the monomers in the chains. Poor agreement of the mean-square monomer displacements at short times can be rectified by the use of generalized Langevin equations for the dynamics and resulted in significantly improved agreement.

Probabilistic evaluation of time series models : a comparison of several approaches

Several methods are examined which allow to produce forecasts for time series in the form of probability assignments. The necessary concepts are presented, addressing questions such as how to assess the performance of a probabilistic forecast. A particular class of models, cluster weighted models (CWMs), is given particular attention. CWMs, originally proposed for deterministic forecasts, can be employed for probabilistic forecasting with little modification. Two examples are presented. The first involves estimating the state of (numerically simulated) dynamical systems from noise corrupted measurements, a problem also known as filtering. There is an optimal solution to this problem, called the optimal filter, to which the considered time series models are compared. (The optimal filter requires the dynamical equations to be known.) In the second example, we aim at forecasting the chaotic oscillations of an experimental bronze spring system. Both examples demonstrate that the considered time series models, and especially the CWMs, provide useful probabilistic information about the underlying dynamical relations. In particular, they provide more than just an approximation to the conditional mean.

A comparison of models for estimating the riverine export of nitrogen from large watersheds

We evaluated the accuracy of six watershed models of nitrogen export in streams (kg km2 yr−1) developed for use in large watersheds and representing various empirical and quasi-empirical approaches described in the literature. These models differ in their methods of calibration and have varying levels of spatial resolution and process complexity, which potentially affect the accuracy (bias and precision) of the model predictions of nitrogen export and source contributions to export. Using stream monitoring data and detailed estimates of the natural and cultural sources of nitrogen for 16 watersheds in the northeastern United States (drainage sizes = 475 to 70,000 km2), we assessed the accuracy of the model predictions of total nitrogen and nitrate-nitrogen export. The model validation included the use of an error modeling technique to identify biases caused by model deficiencies in quantifying nitrogen sources and biogeochemical processes affecting the transport of nitrogen in watersheds. Most models predicted stream nitrogen export to within 50% of the measured export in a majority of the watersheds. Prediction errors were negatively correlated with cultivated land area, indicating that the watershed models tended to over predict export in less agricultural and more forested watersheds and under predict in more agricultural basins. The magnitude of these biases differed appreciably among the models. Those models having more detailed descriptions of nitrogen sources, land and water attenuation of nitrogen, and water flow paths were found to have considerably lower bias and higher precision in their predictions of nitrogen export.

A comparison of Shiga-toxin negative Escherichia coli O157 aflagellate and intimin deficient mutants in porcine in vitro and in vivo models of infection

Isolation of Shiga-toxin (Stx) positive Escherichia coli O157:H7 from commercially grown pigs has been reported. Furthermore, experimental infection studies have demonstrated that Stx-positive E. coli O157:H7 can persist in 12-week-old experimentally orally inoculated conventional pigs for up to 2 months and that persistence was not dependent upon intimin. We have shown that the flagellum of Stx-negative E. coli O157:H7 does not have a role to play in pathogenesis in ruminant models whereas, in poultry, the flagellum of E. coli O157:H7 was important for long-term persistent infection. The contribution of the flagellum of Stx-negative E. coli O157 in the colonisation of pigs was investigated by adherence assays on a porcine (IPI-21) cell line, porcine in vitro organ culture (IVOC) and experimental oral inoculation of conventional 14-week-old pigs. E. coli O157:H7 NCTC12900nal(r) and isogenic aflagellate and intimin deficient mutants adhered equally well to IPI-21 cells. In porcine IVOC association assays, E. coli O157:H7 NCTC12900nal(r) was associated in significantly higher numbers to tissues from the caecum and the terminal rectum than other sites. The aflagellate and intimin deficient mutants significantly adhered in greater numbers to more IVOC gastrointestinal tissues than the parent. Groups of 14-week-old pigs were dosed orally with 10(10) CFU/10 ml of either E. coli O157:H7 NCTC12900nal(r) or isogenic aflagellate and intimin deficient mutants and recovery of each test strain was similar. Histological analysis of pig tissues at post mortem examination revealed that E. coli O157 specifically stained bacteria were associated with the mucosa of the ascending and spiral colon. These data suggest that colonisation and persistence of Stx-negative E. coli O157:H7 in pigs, involves mechanisms that do not require the flagellum or intimin.

A comparison of the anticancer properties of isoxanthohumol and 8-prenylnaringenin using in vitro models of colon cancer

The hops plant (Humulus lupulus L.) is an essential ingredient in beer and contains a number of potentially bioactive prenylflavonoids, the predominant being the weakly estrogenic isoxanthohumol (Ix), which can be converted to the more strongly estrogenic 8-PN by the colonic microbiota. The aim of this study was to investigate the biological activity of 8-PN and Ix using in vitro models representing key stages of colorectal carcinogenesis, namely cell growth and viability (MTT assay), cell-cycle progression (DNA content assay), DNA damage (Comet assay), and invasion (Matrigel assay). A significant decrease in Caco-2 cell viability was noted after both 8-PN and Ix treatments at the higher doses (40 and 50 μM, respectively) although the impact on cell cycle differed between the two compounds. The decreased cell viability observed after Ix treatment was associated with a concentration-dependent increase in G2/M and an increased sub-G1 cell-cycle fraction, whereas treatment with 8-PN was associated with an elevated G0/G1 and an increased sub-G1 cell-cycle fraction. Significant antigenotoxic activity was noted at all 8-PN concentrations tested (5-40 μM). Although significant antigenotoxic activity was also noted with Ix treatment at ≤25 μM, at a higher dose, Ix itself exerted genotoxic activity. In a dose-dependent manner, both compounds inhibited HT115 cell invasion with reductions up to 52 and 46% for Ix and 8-PN, respectively, in comparison to untreated cells. This study demonstrated that both Ix and its gut microbial metabolite 8-PN exert anticancer effects on models of key stages of colon tumourigenesis.

Comparison of polar ozone loss rates simulated by one-dimensional and three-dimensional models with Match observations in recent Antarctic and Arctic winters

Simulations of ozone loss rates using a three-dimensional chemical transport model and a box model during recent Antarctic and Arctic winters are compared with experimental loss rates. The study focused on the Antarctic winter 2003, during which the first Antarctic Match campaign was organized, and on Arctic winters 1999/2000, 2002/2003. The maximum ozone loss rates retrieved by the Match technique for the winters and levels studied reached 6 ppbv/sunlit hour and both types of simulations could generally reproduce the observations at 2-sigma error bar level. In some cases, for example, for the Arctic winter 2002/2003 at 475 K level, an excellent agreement within 1-sigma standard deviation level was obtained. An overestimation was also found with the box model simulation at some isentropic levels for the Antarctic winter and the Arctic winter 1999/2000, indicating an overestimation of chlorine activation in the model. Loss rates in the Antarctic show signs of saturation in September, which have to be considered in the comparison. Sensitivity tests were performed with the box model in order to assess the impact of kinetic parameters of the ClO-Cl2O2 catalytic cycle and total bromine content on the ozone loss rate. These tests resulted in a maximum change in ozone loss rates of 1.2 ppbv/sunlit hour, generally in high solar zenith angle conditions. In some cases, a better agreement was achieved with fastest photolysis of Cl2O2 and additional source of total inorganic bromine but at the expense of overestimation of smaller ozone loss rates derived later in the winter.

Urban surface energy balance models: model characteristics and methodology for a comparison study

Many urban surface energy balance models now exist. These vary in complexity from simple schemes that represent the city as a concrete slab, to those which incorporate detailed representations of momentum and energy fluxes distributed within the atmospheric boundary layer. While many of these schemes have been evaluated against observations, with some models even compared with the same data sets, such evaluations have not been undertaken in a controlled manner to enable direct comparison. For other types of climate model, for instance the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) experiments (Henderson-Sellers et al., 1993), such controlled comparisons have been shown to provide important insights into both the mechanics of the models and the physics of the real world. This paper describes the progress that has been made to date on a systematic and controlled comparison of urban surface schemes. The models to be considered, and their key attributes, are described, along with the methodology to be used for the evaluation.

Modeling plant transpiration under limited soil water: comparison of different plant and soil hydraulic parameterizations and preliminary implications for their use in land surface models

Accurate estimates of how soil water stress affects plant transpiration are crucial for reliable land surface model (LSM) predictions. Current LSMs generally use a water stress factor, β, dependent on soil moisture content, θ, that ranges linearly between β = 1 for unstressed vegetation and β = 0 when wilting point is reached. This paper explores the feasibility of replacing the current approach with equations that use soil water potential as their independent variable, or with a set of equations that involve hydraulic and chemical signaling, thereby ensuring feedbacks between the entire soil–root–xylem–leaf system. A comparison with the original linear θ-based water stress parameterization, and with its improved curvi-linear version, was conducted. Assessment of model suitability was focused on their ability to simulate the correct (as derived from experimental data) curve shape of relative transpiration versus fraction of transpirable soil water. We used model sensitivity analyses under progressive soil drying conditions, employing two commonly used approaches to calculate water retention and hydraulic conductivity curves. Furthermore, for each of these hydraulic parameterizations we used two different parameter sets, for 3 soil texture types; a total of 12 soil hydraulic permutations. Results showed that the resulting transpiration reduction functions (TRFs) varied considerably among the models. The fact that soil hydraulic conductivity played a major role in the model that involved hydraulic and chemical signaling led to unrealistic values of β, and hence TRF, for many soil hydraulic parameter sets. However, this model is much better equipped to simulate the behavior of different plant species. Based on these findings, we only recommend implementation of this approach into LSMs if great care with choice of soil hydraulic parameters is taken

Trends in the CERES dataset, 2000–13: the effects of sea ice and jet shifts and comparison to climate models

We review the effects of dynamical variability on clouds and radiation in observations and models and discuss their implications for cloud feedbacks. Jet shifts produce robust meridional dipoles in upper-level clouds and longwave cloud-radiative effect (CRE), but low-level clouds, which do not simply shift with the jet, dominate the shortwave CRE. Because the effect of jet variability on CRE is relatively small, future poleward jet shifts with global warming are only a second-order contribution to the total CRE changes around the midlatitudes, suggesting a dominant role for thermodynamic effects. This implies that constraining the dynamical response is unlikely to reduce the uncertainty in extratropical cloud feedback. However, we argue that uncertainty in the cloud-radiative response does affect the atmospheric circulation response to global warming, by modulating patterns of diabatic forcing. How cloud feedbacks can affect the dynamical response to global warming is an important topic of future research.

Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures

The level of agreement between climate model simulations and observed surface temperature change is a topic of scientific and policy concern. While the Earth system continues to accumulate energy due to anthropogenic and other radiative forcings, estimates of recent surface temperature evolution fall at the lower end of climate model projections. Global mean temperatures from climate model simulations are typically calculated using surface air temperatures, while the corresponding observations are based on a blend of air and sea surface temperatures. This work quantifies a systematic bias in model-observation comparisons arising from differential warming rates between sea surface temperatures and surface air temperatures over oceans. A further bias arises from the treatment of temperatures in regions where the sea ice boundary has changed. Applying the methodology of the HadCRUT4 record to climate model temperature fields accounts for 38% of the discrepancy in trend between models and observations over the period 1975–2014.

Comparison of aerosol optical properties above clouds between POLDER and AeroCom models over the South East Atlantic Ocean during the fire season

Aerosol properties above clouds have been retrieved over the South East Atlantic Ocean during the fire season 2006 using satellite observations from POLDER (Polarization and Directionality of Earth Reflectances). From June to October, POLDER has observed a mean Above-Cloud Aerosol Optical Thickness (ACAOT) of 0.28 and a mean Above-Clouds Single Scattering Albedo (ACSSA) of 0.87 at 550 nm. These results have been used to evaluate the simulation of aerosols above clouds in 5 AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) models (GOCART, HadGEM3, ECHAM5-HAM2, OsloCTM2 and SPRINTARS). Most models do not reproduce the observed large aerosol load episodes. The comparison highlights the importance of the injection height and the vertical transport parameterizations to simulate the large ACAOT observed by POLDER. Furthermore, POLDER ACSSA is best reproduced by models with a high imaginary part of black carbon refractive index, in accordance with recent recommendations.

Tropical cyclones in a T159 Resolution Global Climate Model: comparison with observations and re-analyses

Tropical cyclones have been investigated in a T159 version of the MPI ECHAM5 climate model using a novel technique to diagnose the evolution of the 3-dimensional vorticity structure of tropical cyclones, including their full life cycle from weak initial vortex to their possible extra-tropical transition. Results have been compared with reanalyses (ERA40 and JRA25) and observed tropical storms during the period 1978-1999 for the Northern Hemisphere. There is no indication of any trend in the number or intensity of tropical storms during this period in ECHAM5 or in re-analyses but there are distinct inter-annual variations. The storms simulated by ECHAM5 are realistic both in space and time, but the model and even more so the re-analyses, underestimate the intensities of the most intense storms (in terms of their maximum wind speeds). There is an indication of a response to ENSO with a smaller number of Atlantic storms during El Niño in agreement with previous studies. The global divergence circulation responds to El Niño by setting up a large-scale convergence flow, with the center over the central Pacific with enhanced subsidence over the tropical Atlantic. At the same time there is an increase in the vertical wind shear in the region of the tropical Atlantic where tropical storms normally develop. There is a good correspondence between the model and ERA40 except that the divergence circulation is somewhat stronger in the model. The model underestimates storms in the Atlantic but tends to overestimate them in the Western Pacific and in the North Indian Ocean. It is suggested that the overestimation of storms in the Pacific by the model is related to an overly strong response to the tropical Pacific SST anomalies. The overestimation in 2 the North Indian Ocean is likely to be due to an over prediction in the intensity of monsoon depressions, which are then classified as intense tropical storms. Nevertheless, overall results are encouraging and will further contribute to increased confidence in simulating intense tropical storms with high-resolution climate models.

Pose and Structure Recovery using Active Models

A new formulation of a pose refinement technique using ``active'' models is described. An error term derived from the detection of image derivatives close to an initial object hypothesis is linearised and solved by least squares. The method is particularly well suited to problems involving external geometrical constraints (such as the ground-plane constraint). We show that the method is able to recover both the pose of a rigid model, and the structure of a deformable model. We report an initial assessment of the performance and cost of pose and structure recovery using the active model in comparison with our previously reported ``passive'' model-based techniques in the context of traffic surveillance. The new method is more stable, and requires fewer iterations, especially when the number of free parameters increases, but shows somewhat poorer convergence.