Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling

The decadal predictability of three-dimensional Atlantic Ocean anomalies is examined in a coupled global climate model (HadCM3) using a Linear Inverse Modelling (LIM) approach. It is found that the evolution of temperature and salinity in the Atlantic, and the strength of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), can be effectively described by a linear dynamical system forced by white noise. The forecasts produced using this linear model are more skillful than other reference forecasts for several decades. Furthermore, significant non-normal amplification is found under several different norms. The regions from which this growth occurs are found to be fairly shallow and located in the far North Atlantic. Initially, anomalies in the Nordic Seas impact the MOC, and the anomalies then grow to fill the entire Atlantic basin, especially at depth, over one to three decades. It is found that the structure of the optimal initial condition for amplification is sensitive to the norm employed, but the initial growth seems to be dominated by MOC-related basin scale changes, irrespective of the choice of norm. The consistent identification of the far North Atlantic as the most sensitive region for small perturbations suggests that additional observations in this region would be optimal for constraining decadal climate predictions.

Understanding the processes governing climate variability and change, climate predictability and the probability of extreme events

The purpose of Research Theme 4 (RT4) was to advance understanding of the basic science issues at the heart of the ENSEMBLES project, focusing on the key processes that govern climate variability and change, and that determine the predictability of climate. Particular attention was given to understanding linear and non-linear feedbacks that may lead to climate surprises,and to understanding the factors that govern the probability of extreme events. Improved understanding of these issues will contribute significantly to the quantification and reduction of uncertainty in seasonal to decadal predictions and projections of climate change. RT4 exploited the ENSEMBLES integrations (stream 1) performed in RT2A as well as undertaking its own experimentation to explore key processes within the climate system. It was working at the cutting edge of problems related to climate feedbacks, the interaction between climate variability and climate change � especially how climate change pertains to extreme events, and the predictability of the climate system on a range of time-scales. The statisticalmethodologies developed for extreme event analysis are new and state-of-the-art. The RT4-coordinated experiments, which have been conducted with six different atmospheric GCMs forced by common timeinvariant sea surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice fields (removing some sources of inter-model variability), are designed to help to understand model uncertainty (rather than scenario or initial condition uncertainty) in predictions of the response to greenhouse-gas-induced warming. RT4 links strongly with RT5 on the evaluation of the ENSEMBLES prediction system and feeds back its results to RT1 to guide improvements in the Earth system models and, through its research on predictability, to steer the development of methods for initialising the ensembles

Repetitive visiting as a pre-return transnational strategy among youthful Trinidad returnees

Building upon existing Caribbean research by Condon and Duval, we assess how repetitive visiting is, or is not, important to youthful return migrants in their 30s and 40s, who have decided to return more permanently to Trinidad. Is it influential in their social and economic adaptations on return, and does this transnational practice lead to a more permanent return? Our analysis is based on 40 detailed narratives which were collected in 2004-2005. For some returnees, repetitive visiting is influential, for others one visit is enough and for a few, it makes no difference. Yet it is certainly a common practice for 'keeping in touch' among our transnational informants.

Questions of Friendship and Degrees of Transnationality among Second-Generation Return Migrants to Barbados

While the academic literature has demonstrated the importance of social networks in relation to the process of migration, investigations have rarely examined in detail the personal-social adjustment issues that migrants and return migrants face. This study examines the context and types of friendship pattern that young return migrants from Britain cultivate in Barbados. The research centres on a wholly under-researched demographic groupyoung return migrants or second-generation Barbadians who have decided to return to the birthplace of their parents. The investigation is based on 51 in-depth interviews carried out with these young returnees to Barbados. Presenting a taxonomy of friendship types, it is argued that, for the 'Bajan-Brits' under study, the cultivation of new friendships is highly problematic. The research identifies what we refer to as the 'insular transnational', the 'we are different' and the 'all-inclusive transnational' friendship types among the young returnees. Our analysis also shows that problems of friendship are highly gendered, with females reporting the most problems due to what is perceived as sexual and workplace competition. It is stressed that these circumstances exemplify the essentially 'hybrid', 'liminal' and 'in-between' positionality of these second-generation migrants within contemporary Barbadian society.

'Black skins-white masks': Postcolonial reflections on 'race', gender and second generation return migration to the Caribbean

This paper illustrates the opportunities afforded by the adoption of postcolonial discourse in development geography, drawing specifically on issues of transnationalism, hybridity and inbetweeness. The utility of such notions and associated approaches is illustrated by the authors' current research on the migration of young, second generation and foreign-born 'Bajan-Brits' to the small Caribbean island nation of Barbados, the homeland of their parents. Focussing on issues of 'race' and gender, the paper examines the experiences of return migration among this cohort from an interpretative perspective framed within postcolonial discourse. It argues that notwithstanding the considerable sociocultural problems of adjustment encountered, these Bajan-Brit 'returnees' may be seen as occupying positions of relative economic privilege. Theirs is a liminal space derived by virtue of having been born and/or raised in the UK and being of the black 'race'. Accordingly, they are demonstrated to be both advantaged and disadvantaged; both transnational and national; and black but, in some senses, symbolically white.