Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

Innovative use of vodcast (Video-Podcast) to enrich learning experience in structures laboratory

Students may have difficulty in understanding some of the complex concepts which they have been taught in the general areas of science and engineering. Whilst practical work such as a laboratory based examination of the performance of structures has an important role in knowledge construction this does have some limitations. Blended learning supports different learning styles, hence further benefits knowledge building. This research involves an empirical study of how vodcasts (video-podcasts) can be used to enrich learning experience in the structural properties of materials laboratory of an undergraduate course. Students were given the opportunity of downloading and viewing the vodcasts on the theory before and after the experimental work. It is the choice of the students when (before or after, before and after) and how many times they would like to view the vodcasts. In blended learning, the combination of face-to-face teaching, vodcasts, printed materials, practical experiments, writing reports and instructors’ feedbacks benefits different learning styles of the learners. For the preparation of the practical, the students were informed about the availability of the vodcasts prior to the practical session. After the practical work, students submitted an individual laboratory report for the assessment of the structures laboratory. The data collection consisted of a questionnaire completed by the students, follow-up semi-structured interviews and the practical reports submitted by them for assessment. The results from the questionnaire were analysed quantitatively, whilst the data from the assessment reports were analysed qualitatively. The analysis shows that most of the students who have not fully grasped the theory after the practical, managed to gain the required knowledge by viewing the vodcasts. According to their feedbacks, the students felt that they have control over how to use the material and to view it as many times as they wish. Some students who have understood the theory may choose to view it once or not at all. Their understanding was demonstrated by their explanations in their reports, and was illustrated by the approach they took to explicate the results of their experimental work. The research findings are valuable to instructors who design, develop and deliver different types of blended learning, and are beneficial to learners who try different blended approaches. Recommendations were made on the role of the innovative application of vodcasts in the knowledge construction for structures laboratory and to guide future work in this area of research.

Blended learning approach to include the innovative use of vodcasts (video-podcasts) to enrich students learning experience in structures laboratory

Students may have difficulty in understanding some of the complex concepts which they have been taught in the general areas of science and engineering. Whilst practical work such as a laboratory based examination of the performance of structures has an important role in knowledge construction this does have some limitations. Blended learning supports different learning styles, hence further benefits knowledge building. This research involves the empirical studies of how an innovative use of vodcasts (video-podcasts) can enrich learning experience in the structural properties of materials laboratory of an undergraduate course. Students were given the opportunity of downloading and viewing the vodcasts on the theory before and after the experimental work. It is the choice of the students when (before or after, before and after) and how many times they would like to view the vodcasts. In blended learning, the combination of face-to-face teaching, vodcasts, printed materials, practical experiments, writing reports and instructors’ feedbacks benefits different learning styles of the learners. For the preparation of the practical laboratory work, the students were informed about the availability of the vodcasts prior to the practical session. After the practical work, students submit an individual laboratory report for the assessment of the structures laboratory. The data collection consists of a questionnaire completed by the students, and the practical reports submitted by them for assessment. The results from the questionnaire were analysed quantitatively, whilst the data from the assessment reports were analysed qualitatively. The analysis shows that students who have not fully grasped the theory after the practical were successful in gaining the required knowledge by viewing the vodcasts. Some students who have understood the theory may choose to view it once or not at all. Their understanding was demonstrated by the quality of their explanations in their reports. This is illustrated by the approach they took to explicate the results of their experimental work, for example, they can explain how to calculate the Young’s Modulus properly and provided the correct value for it. The research findings are valuable to instructors who design, develop and deliver different types of blended learning, and beneficial to learners who try different blended approaches. Recommendations were made on the role of the innovative application of vodcasts in the knowledge construction for structures laboratory and to guide future work in this area of research.

Modelling risk perception and trust in food safety information within the theory of planned behaviour

This study suggests a statistical strategy for explaining how food purchasing intentions are influenced by different levels of risk perception and trust in food safety information. The modelling process is based on Ajzen's Theory of Planned Behaviour and includes trust and risk perception as additional explanatory factors. Interaction and endogeneity across these determinants is explored through a system of simultaneous equations, while the SPARTA equation is estimated through an ordered probit model. Furthermore, parameters are allowed to vary as a function of socio-demographic variables. The application explores chicken purchasing intentions both in a standard situation and conditional to an hypothetical salmonella scare. Data were collected through a nationally representative UK wide survey of 533 UK respondents in face-to-face, in-home interviews. Empirical findings show that interactions exist among the determinants of planned behaviour and socio-demographic variables improve the model's performance. Attitudes emerge as the key determinant of intention to purchase chicken, while trust in food safety information provided by media reduces the likelihood to purchase. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Managing threatened species – the ecological toolbox, evolutionary theory and the declining-population paradigm

1. The management of threatened species is an important practical way in which conservationists can intervene in the extinction process and reduce the loss of biodiversity. Understanding the causes of population declines (past, present and future) is pivotal to designing effective practical management. This is the declining-population paradigm identified by Caughley. 2. There are three broad classes of ecological tool used by conservationists to guide management decisions for threatened species: statistical models of habitat use, demographic models and behaviour-based models. Each of these is described here, illustrated with a case study and evaluated critically in terms of its practical application. 3. These tools are fundamentally different. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models both use descriptions of patterns in abundance and demography, in relation to a range of factors, to inform management decisions. In contrast, behaviourbased models describe the evolutionary processes underlying these patterns, and derive such patterns from the strategies employed by individuals when competing for resources under a specific set of environmental conditions. 4. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models have been used successfully to make management recommendations for declining populations. To do this, assumptions are made about population growth or vital rates that will apply when environmental conditions are restored, based on either past data collected under favourable environmental conditions or estimates of these parameters when the agent of decline is removed. As a result, they can only be used to make reliable quantitative predictions about future environments when a comparable environment has been experienced by the population of interest in the past. 5. Many future changes in the environment driven by management will not have been experienced by a population in the past. Under these circumstances, vital rates and their relationship with population density will change in the future in a way that is not predictable from past patterns. Reliable quantitative predictions about population-level responses then need to be based on an explicit consideration of the evolutionary processes operating at the individual level. 6. Synthesis and applications. It is argued that evolutionary theory underpins Caughley’s declining-population paradigm, and that it needs to become much more widely used within mainstream conservation biology. This will help conservationists examine critically the reliability of the tools they have traditionally used to aid management decision-making. It will also give them access to alternative tools, particularly when predictions are required for changes in the environment that have not been experienced by a population in the past.

Statistical inferences in phylogeography

In conventional phylogeographic studies, historical demographic processes are elucidated from the geographical distribution of individuals represented on an inferred gene tree. However, the interpretation of gene trees in this context can be difficult as the same demographic/geographical process can randomly lead to multiple different genealogies. Likewise, the same gene trees can arise under different demographic models. This problem has led to the emergence of many statistical methods for making phylogeographic inferences. A popular phylogeographic approach based on nested clade analysis is challenged by the fact that a certain amount of the interpretation of the data is left to the subjective choices of the user, and it has been argued that the method performs poorly in simulation studies. More rigorous statistical methods based on coalescence theory have been developed. However, these methods may also be challenged by computational problems or poor model choice. In this review, we will describe the development of statistical methods in phylogeographic analysis, and discuss some of the challenges facing these methods.

Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

Managing threatened species: the ecological toolbox, evolutionary theory and declining-population paradigm

1. The management of threatened species is an important practical way in which conservationists can intervene in the extinction process and reduce the loss of biodiversity. Understanding the causes of population declines (past, present and future) is pivotal to designing effective practical management. This is the declining-population paradigm identified by Caughley. 2. There are three broad classes of ecological tool used by conservationists to guide management decisions for threatened species: statistical models of habitat use, demographic models and behaviour-based models. Each of these is described here, illustrated with a case study and evaluated critically in terms of its practical application. 3. These tools are fundamentally different. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models both use descriptions of patterns in abundance and demography, in relation to a range of factors, to inform management decisions. In contrast, behaviour-based models describe the evolutionary processes underlying these patterns, and derive such patterns from the strategies employed by individuals when competing for resources under a specific set of environmental conditions. 4. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models have been used successfully to make management recommendations for declining populations. To do this, assumptions are made about population growth or vital rates that will apply when environmental conditions are restored, based on either past data collected under favourable environmental conditions or estimates of these parameters when the agent of decline is removed. As a result, they can only be used to make reliable quantitative predictions about future environments when a comparable environment has been experienced by the population of interest in the past. 5. Many future changes in the environment driven by management will not have been experienced by a population in the past. Under these circumstances, vital rates and their relationship with population density will change in the future in a way that is not predictable from past patterns. Reliable quantitative predictions about population-level responses then need to be based on an explicit consideration of the evolutionary processes operating at the individual level. 6. Synthesis and applications. It is argued that evolutionary theory underpins Caughley's declining-population paradigm, and that it needs to become much more widely used within mainstream conservation biology. This will help conservationists examine critically the reliability of the tools they have traditionally used to aid management decision-making. It will also give them access to alternative tools, particularly when predictions are required for changes in the environment that have not been experienced by a population in the past.

A perspective on chaos theory: Potential applications to intelligent buildings

Mathematical models have been vitally important in the development of technologies in building engineering. A literature review identifies that linear models are the most widely used building simulation models. The advent of intelligent buildings has added new challenges in the application of the existing models as an intelligent building requires learning and self-adjusting capabilities based on environmental and occupants' factors. It is therefore argued that the linearity is an impropriate basis for any model of either complex building systems or occupant behaviours for control or whatever purpose. Chaos and complexity theory reflects nonlinear dynamic properties of the intelligent systems excised by occupants and environment and has been used widely in modelling various engineering, natural and social systems. It is proposed that chaos and complexity theory be applied to study intelligent buildings. This paper gives a brief description of chaos and complexity theory and presents its current positioning, recent developments in building engineering research and future potential applications to intelligent building studies, which provides a bridge between chaos and complexity theory and intelligent building research.

Designing Year 12 strategy training in listening and writing: from theory to practice

This article outlines some of the key issues involved in developing a programme of strategy training for learners of French, in listening and in writing. It highlights the theoretical perspectives and research findings on listening and writing that informed the selection of strategies to teach learners and thence the development of appropriate materials. Examples of these materials are given as well as advice regarding their use. The article concludes with suggestions for how strategy training might be incorporated into teachers' own work with learners.

An instructional design model for constructivist learning

The emergent requirements for effective e-learning calls for a paradigm shift for instructional design. Constructivist theory and semiotics offer a sound underpinning to enable such revolutionary change by employing the concepts of Learning Objects. E-learning guidelines adopted by the industry have led successfully to the development of training materials. Inadequacy and deficiency of those methods for Higher Education have been identified in this paper. Based on the best practice in industry and our empirical research, we present an instructional design model with practical templates for constructivist learning.

A statistical mechanical approach for the computation of the climatic response to general forcings

The climate belongs to the class of non-equilibrium forced and dissipative systems, for which most results of quasi-equilibrium statistical mechanics, including the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, do not apply. In this paper we show for the first time how the Ruelle linear response theory, developed for studying rigorously the impact of perturbations on general observables of non-equilibrium statistical mechanical systems, can be applied with great success to analyze the climatic response to general forcings. The crucial value of the Ruelle theory lies in the fact that it allows to compute the response of the system in terms of expectation values of explicit and computable functions of the phase space averaged over the invariant measure of the unperturbed state. We choose as test bed a classical version of the Lorenz 96 model, which, in spite of its simplicity, has a well-recognized prototypical value as it is a spatially extended one-dimensional model and presents the basic ingredients, such as dissipation, advection and the presence of an external forcing, of the actual atmosphere. We recapitulate the main aspects of the general response theory and propose some new general results. We then analyze the frequency dependence of the response of both local and global observables to perturbations having localized as well as global spatial patterns. We derive analytically several properties of the corresponding susceptibilities, such as asymptotic behavior, validity of Kramers-Kronig relations, and sum rules, whose main ingredient is the causality principle. We show that all the coefficients of the leading asymptotic expansions as well as the integral constraints can be written as linear function of parameters that describe the unperturbed properties of the system, such as its average energy. Some newly obtained empirical closure equations for such parameters allow to define such properties as an explicit function of the unperturbed forcing parameter alone for a general class of chaotic Lorenz 96 models. We then verify the theoretical predictions from the outputs of the simulations up to a high degree of precision. The theory is used to explain differences in the response of local and global observables, to define the intensive properties of the system, which do not depend on the spatial resolution of the Lorenz 96 model, and to generalize the concept of climate sensitivity to all time scales. We also show how to reconstruct the linear Green function, which maps perturbations of general time patterns into changes in the expectation value of the considered observable for finite as well as infinite time. Finally, we propose a simple yet general methodology to study general Climate Change problems on virtually any time scale by resorting to only well selected simulations, and by taking full advantage of ensemble methods. The specific case of globally averaged surface temperature response to a general pattern of change of the CO2 concentration is discussed. We believe that the proposed approach may constitute a mathematically rigorous and practically very effective way to approach the problem of climate sensitivity, climate prediction, and climate change from a radically new perspective.

Neurofuzzy mixture of experts network parallel learning and model construction algorithms

A connection between a fuzzy neural network model with the mixture of experts network (MEN) modelling approach is established. Based on this linkage, two new neuro-fuzzy MEN construction algorithms are proposed to overcome the curse of dimensionality that is inherent in the majority of associative memory networks and/or other rule based systems. The first construction algorithm employs a function selection manager module in an MEN system. The second construction algorithm is based on a new parallel learning algorithm in which each model rule is trained independently, for which the parameter convergence property of the new learning method is established. As with the first approach, an expert selection criterion is utilised in this algorithm. These two construction methods are equivalent in their effectiveness in overcoming the curse of dimensionality by reducing the dimensionality of the regression vector, but the latter has the additional computational advantage of parallel processing. The proposed algorithms are analysed for effectiveness followed by numerical examples to illustrate their efficacy for some difficult data based modelling problems.

Adapting to new challenges: extension theory and practice for the 21st century

Twenty first century challenges facing agriculture include climate change, threats to food security for a growing population and downward economic pressures on rural livelihoods. Addressing these challenges will require innovation in extension theory, policy and education, at a time when the dominance of the state in the provision of knowledge and information services to farmers and rural entrepreneurs continues to decline. This paper suggests that extension theory is catching up with and helping us to understand innovative extension practice, and therefore provides a platform for improving rural development policies and strategies. Innovation is now less likely to be spoken of as something to be passed on to farmers, than as a continuing process of creativity and adaptation that can be nurtured and sustained. Innovation systems and innovation platforms are concepts that recognise the multiple factors that lead to farmers’ developing, adapting and applying new ideas and the importance of linking all actors in the value chain to ensure producers can access appropriate information and advice for decision making at all stages in the production process. Concepts of social learning, group development and solidarity, social capital, collective action and empowerment all help to explain and therefore to apply more effectively group extension approaches in building confidence and sustaining innovation. A challenge facing educators is to ensure the curricula for aspiring extension professionals in our higher education institutions are regularly reviewed and keep up with current and future developments in theory, policy and practice.