Alternative approaches to predicting methane emissions from dairy cows

Previous attempts to apply statistical models, which correlate nutrient intake with methane production, have been of limited. value where predictions are obtained for nutrient intakes and diet types outside those. used in model construction. Dynamic mechanistic models have proved more suitable for extrapolation, but they remain computationally expensive and are not applied easily in practical situations. The first objective of this research focused on employing conventional techniques to generate statistical models of methane production appropriate to United Kingdom dairy systems. The second objective was to evaluate these models and a model published previously using both United Kingdom and North American data sets. Thirdly, nonlinear models were considered as alternatives to the conventional linear regressions. The United Kingdom calorimetry data used to construct the linear models also were used to develop the three. nonlinear alternatives that were ball of modified Mitscherlich (monomolecular) form. Of the linear models tested,, an equation from the literature proved most reliable across the full range of evaluation data (root mean square prediction error = 21.3%). However, the Mitscherlich models demonstrated the greatest degree of adaptability across diet types and intake level. The most successful model for simulating the independent data was a modified Mitscherlich equation with the steepness parameter set to represent dietary starch-to-ADF ratio (root mean square prediction error = 20.6%). However, when such data were unavailable, simpler Mitscherlich forms relating dry matter or metabolizable energy intake to methane production remained better alternatives relative to their linear counterparts.

Spontaneous gene flow from rapeseed (Brassica napus) to wild Brassica oleracea

Research on the environmental risks of gene flow from genetically modified ( GM) crops to wild relatives has traditionally emphasized recipients yielding most hybrids. For GM rapeseed ( Brassica napus), interest has centred on the 'frequently hybridizing' Brassica rapa over relatives such as Brassica oleracea, where spontaneous hybrids are unreported in the wild. In two sites, where rapeseed and wild B. oleracea grow together, we used flow cytometry and crop-specific microsatellite markers to identify one triploid F-1 hybrid, together with nine diploid and two near triploid introgressants. Given the newly discovered capacity for spontaneous introgression into B. oleracea, we then surveyed associated flora and fauna to evaluate the capacity of both recipients to harm cohabitant species with acknowledged conservational importance. Only B. oleracea occupies rich communities containing species afforded legislative protection; these include one rare micromoth species that feeds on B. oleracea and warrants further assessment. We conclude that increased attention should now focus on B. oleracea and similar species that yield few crop-hybrids, but possess scope to affect rare or endangered associates.

Association between ovarian follicle development and pregnancy rates in dairy cows undergoing spontaneous oestrous cycles

Ovarian follicle development continues in a wave-like manner during the bovine oestrous cycle giving rise to variation in the duration of ovulatory follicle development. The objectives of the present study were to determine whether a relationship exists between the duration of ovulatory follicle development and pregnancy rates following artificial insemination (AI) in dairy cows undergoing spontaneous oestrous cycles, and to identify factors influencing follicle turnover and pregnancy rate and the relationship between these two variables. Follicle development was monitored by daily transrectal ultrasonography from 10 days after oestrus until the subsequent oestrus in 158 lactating dairy cows. The cows were artificially inseminated following the second observed oestrus and pregnancy was diagnosed 35 days later. The predominant pattern of follicle development was two follicle waves (74.7%) with three follicle waves in 22.1% of oestrous cycles and four or more follicle waves in 3.2% of oestrous cycles. The interval from ovulatory follicle emergence to oestrus (EOI) was 3 days longer (P < 0.0001) in cows with two follicle waves than in those with three waves. Ovulatory follicles from two-wave oestrous cycles grew more slowly but were approximately 2 mm larger (P < 0.0001) on the day of oestrus. Twin ovulations were observed in 14.2% of oestrous cycles and occurred more frequently (P < 0.001) in three-wave oestrous cycles; consequently EOI was shorter in cows with twin ovulations. Overall, 57.0% of the cows were diagnosed pregnant 35 days after AI. Linear logistic regression analysis revealed an inverse relationship between EOI and the proportion of cows diagnosed pregnant, among all cows (n = 158; P < 0.01) and amongst those with single ovulations (n = 145; P < 0.05). Mean EOI was approximately I day shorter (P < 0.01) in cows that became pregnant than in non-pregnant cows; however, pregnancy rates did not differ significantly among cows with different patterns of follicle development. These findings confirm and extend previous observations in pharmacologically manipulated cattle and show, for the first time, that in dairy cows undergoing spontaneous oestrous cycles, natural variation in the duration of post-emergence ovulatory follicle development has a significant effect on pregnancy rate, presumably reflecting variation in oocyte developmental competence.

Spontaneous condensation in DNA-polystyrene-b-poly(l-lysine) polyelectrolyte block copolymer mixtures

We investigated the condensation of calf thymus DNA by amphiphilic polystyrene(m)-b-poly(l-lysine)(n) block copolymers (PSm-b- PLys(n), m, n = degree of polymerization), using small-angle X-ray scattering, polarized optical microscopy and laser scanning confocal microscopy. Microscopy studies showed that the DNA condenses in the form of fibrillar precipitates, with an irregular structure, due to electrostatic interactions between PLys and DNA. This is not modified by the presence of hydrophobic PS block. Scattering experiments show that the structure of the polyplexes corresponds to a local order of DNA rods which becomes more compact upon increasing n. It can be concluded that for DNA/ PSm-b- PLys(n) polyplexes, the balance between the PLys block length and the excess charge in the system plays an essential role in the formation of a liquid crystalline phase.

Spontaneous ring-opening polymerization of macrocyclic aromatic thioether ketones under transient high-temperature conditions

Spontaneous ring-opening polymerization of macrocyclic aromatic thioether ketones [-1,4-SC6H4CO-C6H4-](n) (n = 3 and 4), in which the thioether linkages are para to the ketone, occurs during rapid, transient heating to 480degreesC, to afford a soluble, semi-crystalline poly(thioether ketone) of high molar mass (eta(inh) > 1.0 dL . g(-1)). Corresponding macrocyclic ether ketone, and a macrocyclic thioether ether ketone in which the thioether linkage is para to the ether rather than to the ketone, show no evidence of polymerization under analogous conditions.

Direct estimates of emissions from the megacity of Lagos

We report here top-down emissions estimates for an African megacity. A boundary layer circumnavigation of Lagos, Nigeria was completed using the FAAM BAe146 aircraft as part of the AMMA project. These observations together with an inferred boundary layer height allow the flux of pollutants to be calculated. Extrapolation gives annual emissions for CO, NOx, and VOCs of 1.44 Tg yr(-1), 0.03 Tg yr(-1) and 0.37 Tg yr(-1) respectively with uncertainties of (+250)/(-60%). These inferred emissions are consistent with bottom-up estimates for other developing megacities and are attributed to the evaporation of fuels, mobile combustion and natural gas emissions.

Occurrence of ribbons of cyclic water pentamers in a metallo-organic framework formed by spontaneous fixation of CO2

In the reaction of equimolar amounts of copper(II) acetate with 2,2'-dipyridylamine (DPA) in aqueous tetrahydrofuran, in presence of KOH, aerial CO2 is spontaneously fixed to the carbonate anion yielding [Cu(DPA)(CO3)] . 3H(2)O (1). X-ray crystallography shows the presence of zigzag ribbons of cyclic water pentamers in the channels of a chain-like metallo-organic framework. The water ribbons are stabilised by hydrogen bonds to the metallo-organic backbone. Each (H2O)(5) pentamer is approximately planar.

Mixed ligand binuclear copper(I) complexes containing (Cu2N8)-N-I chromophores. Observation of emissions from MLCT excited states involving two different ligands

Using the 1:2 condensate (L) of diethylenetriamine and benzaldehyde as the main ligand, binuclear copper(l) complexes [Cu2L2(4,4'-bipyridine)](CIO4)(2).0.5H(2)O (1a) and [Cu2L2(1,2-bis(4-pyridyl)ethane)](CIO4)(2) (1b) are synthesised. The two metal ions in la are bridged by 4,4'-bipyridine and those in 1b by 1,2-bis(4-pyridyl)ethane, From the X-ray crystal structure of la, each metal ion is found to be bound to three N atoms of L and one of the two N atoms of the bridging ligand in a distorted tetrahedral fashion. The Cu(I)-N bond lengths in la lie in the range of 1.998(5)-2.229(6) Angstrom. Electrochemical studies in dichloromethane (DCM) show that the (Cu2N8)-N-I moieties in la and 1b are composed of two essentially non-interacting (CuN4)-N-I cores with Cu-II/I potential of 0.44 V vs. SCE. While la displays metal induced quenching of the inherent emission of 4,4'-bipyridine in DCM solution, 1b exhibits two weak emission bands in DCM solution at 425 and 477 nm (total quantum yield = 3.59 x 10(-5)) originating from MLCT excited states. With the help of Extended Huckel calculations it is established that the higher energy emission in 1b is from Cu(I) --> bridging-ligand charge transfer excited state and the lower energy one in 1b from Cu(I) --> L charge transfer excited state.

Hitting emissions targets with (statistical) confidence in multi-instrument Emissions Trading Schemes

A means of assessing, monitoring and controlling aggregate emissions from multi-instrument Emissions Trading Schemes is proposed. The approach allows contributions from different instruments with different forms of emissions targets to be integrated. Where Emissions Trading Schemes are helping meet specific national targets, the approach allows the entry requirements of new participants to be calculated and set at a level that will achieve these targets. The approach is multi-levelled, and may be extended downwards to support pooling of participants within instruments, or upwards to embed Emissions Trading Schemes within a wider suite of policies and measures with hard and soft targets. Aggregate emissions from each instrument are treated stochastically. Emissions from the scheme as a whole are then the joint probability distribution formed by integrating the emissions from its instruments. Because a Bayesian approach is adopted, qualitative and semi-qualitative data from expert opinion can be used where quantitative data is not currently available, or is incomplete. This approach helps government retain sufficient control over emissions trading scheme targets to allow them to meet their emissions reduction obligations, while minimising the need for retrospectively adjusting existing participants’ conditions of entry. This maintains participant confidence, while providing the necessary policy levers for good governance.

Reactions of NO3 with the man-made emissions 2-methylpent-2-ene, (Z)-3-methylpent-2-ene, ethyl vinyl ether, and the stress-induced plant emission ethyl vinyl ketone

Rate coefficients for reactions of nitrate radicals (NO3) with the anthropogenic emissions 2-methylpent-2-ene, (Z)-3-methylpent-2-ene.. ethyl vinyl ether, and the stress-induced plant emission ethyl vinyl ketone (pent-1-en-3-one) were determined to be (9.3 +/- 1.1) x 10(-12), (9.3 +/- 3.2) x 10(-12), (1.7 +/- 1.3) x 10(-12) and (9.4 + 2.7) x 10(-17) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). We performed kinetic experiments at room temperature and atmospheric pressure using a relative-rate technique with GC-FID analysis. Experiments with ethyl vinyl ether required a modification of our established procedure that might introduce additional uncertainties, and the errors suggested reflect these difficulties. Rate coefficients are discussed in terms of electronic and steric influences. Atmospheric lifetimes with respect to important oxidants in the troposphere were calculated. NO3-initiated oxidation is found to be the strongly dominating degradation route for 2-methylpent-2-ene, (Z)-3-methylpent-2-ene and ethyl vinyl ether. Atmospheric concentrations of the alkenes and their relative contribution to the total NMHC emissions from trucks can be expected to increase if plans for the introduction of particle filters for diesel engines are implemented on a global scale. Thus more kinetic data are required to better evaluate the impact of these emissions.

The impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH: results from QUANTIFY

To estimate the impact of emissions by road, aircraft and ship traffic on ozone and OH in the present-day atmosphere six different atmospheric chemistry models have been used. Based on newly developed global emission inventories for road, ship and aircraft emission data sets each model performed sensitivity simulations reducing the emissions of each transport sector by 5%. The model results indicate that on global annual average lower tropospheric ozone responds most sensitive to ship emissions (50.6%±10.9% of the total traffic induced perturbation), followed by road (36.7%±9.3%) and aircraft exhausts (12.7%±2.9%), respectively. In the northern upper troposphere between 200–300 hPa at 30–60° N the maximum impact from road and ship are 93% and 73% of the maximum effect of aircraft, respectively. The latter is 0.185 ppbv for ozone (for the 5% case) or 3.69 ppbv when scaling to 100%. On the global average the impact of road even dominates in the UTLS-region. The sensitivity of ozone formation per NOx molecule emitted is highest for aircraft exhausts. The local maximum effect of the summed traffic emissions on the ozone column predicted by the models is 0.2 DU and occurs over the northern subtropical Atlantic extending to central Europe. Below 800 hPa both ozone and OH respond most sensitively to ship emissions in the marine lower troposphere over the Atlantic. Based on the 5% perturbation the effect on ozone can exceed 0.6% close to the marine surface (global zonal mean) which is 80% of the total traffic induced ozone perturbation. In the southern hemisphere ship emissions contribute relatively strongly to the total ozone perturbation by 60%–80% throughout the year. Methane lifetime changes against OH are affected strongest by ship emissions up to 0.21 (± 0.05)%, followed by road (0.08 (±0.01)%) and air traffic (0.05 (± 0.02)%). Based on the full scale ozone and methane perturbations positive radiative forcings were calculated for road emissions (7.3±6.2 mWm−2) and for aviation (2.9±2.3 mWm−2). Ship induced methane lifetime changes dominate over the ozone forcing and therefore lead to a net negative forcing (−25.5±13.2 mWm−2).

Night-time tropospheric chemistry of the unsaturated alcohols (Z)-pent-2-en-1-ol and pent-1-en-3-ol: Kinetic studies of reactions of NO3 and N2O5 with stress-induced plant emissions

The night-time tropospheric chemistry of two stress-induced volatile organic compounds (VOCs), (Z)-pent-2-en-1-ol and pent-1-en-3-ol, has been studied at room temperature. Rate coefficients for reactions of the nitrate radical (NO3) with these pentenols were measured using the discharge-flow technique. Because of the relatively low volatility of these compounds, we employed off-axis continuous-wave cavity-enhanced absorption spectroscopy for detection of NO3 in order to be able to work in pseudo first-order conditions with the pentenols in large excess over NO3. The rate coefficients were determined to be (1.53 +/- 0.23) x 10(-13) and (1.39 +/- 0.19) x 10(-14) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) for reactions of NO3 with (Z)-pent-2-en-1-ol and pent-1-en-3-ol. An attempt to study the kinetics of these reactions with a relative-rate technique, using N2O5 as source of NO3 resulted in significantly higher apparent rate coefficients. Performing relative-rate experiments in known excesses of NO2 allowed us to determine the rate coefficients for the N2O5 reactions to be (5.0 +/- 2.8) x 10(-19) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) for (Z)-pent-2-en-1-ol, and (9.1 +/- 5.8) x 10(-19) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1) for pent-1-en-3-ol. We show that these relatively slow reactions can indeed interfere with rate determinations in conventional relative-rate experiments.