Location, location, location: development of spatiotemporal sequence learning in infancy

We investigated infants' sensitivity to spatiotemporal structure. In Experiment 1, circles appeared in a statistically defined spatial pattern. At test 11-month-olds, but not 8-month-olds, looked longer at a novel spatial sequence. Experiment 2 presented different color/shape stimuli, but only the location sequence was violated during test; 8-month-olds preferred the novel spatial structure, but 5-month-olds did not. In Experiment 3, the locations but not color/shape pairings were constant at test; 5-month-olds showed a novelty preference. Experiment 4 examined "online learning": We recorded eye movements of 8-month-olds watching a spatiotemporal sequence. Saccade latencies to predictable locations decreased. We argue that temporal order statistics involving informative spatial relations become available to infants during the first year after birth, assisted by multiple cues.

Simulations of the London urban heat island

We present simulations of London's meteorology using the Met Office Unified Model with a new, sophisticated surface energy-balance scheme to represent the urban surfaces, called MORUSES. Simulations are performed with the urban surfaces represented and with the urban surfaces replaced with grass in order to calculate the urban increment on the local meteorology. The local urban effects were moderated to some extent by the passage of an onshore flow that propagated up the Thames estuary and across the city, cooling London slightly in the afternoon. Validations of screen-level temperature show encouraging agreement to within 1–2 K, when the urban increment is up to 5 K. The model results are then used to examine factors shaping the spatial and temporal structure of London's atmospheric boundary layer. The simulations reconcile the differences in the temporal evolution of the urban heat island (UHI) shown in various studies and demonstrate that the variation of UHI with time depends strongly on the urban fetch. The UHI at a location downwind of the city centre shows a decrease in UHI during the night, while the UHI at the city centre stays constant. Finally, the UHI at a location upwind of the city centre increases continuously. The magnitude of the UHI by the time of the evening transition increases with urban fetch. The urban increments are largest at night, when the boundary layer is shallow. The boundary layer experiences continued warming after sunset, as the heat from the urban fabric is released, and a weakly convective boundary layer develops across the city. The urban land-use fraction is the dominant control on the spatial structure in the sensible heat flux and the resulting urban increment, although even the weak advection present in this case study is sufficient to advect the peak temperature increments downwind of the most built-up areas. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown Copyright, the Met Office

The DigiBog model of peatland development 1: rationale, conceptual model, and hydrological basis

Using a literature review, we argue that new models of peatland development are needed. Many existing models do not account for potentially important ecohydrological feedbacks, and/or ignore spatial structure and heterogeneity. Existing models, including those that simulate a near total loss of the northern peatland carbon store under a warming climate, may produce misleading results because they rely upon oversimplified representations of ecological and hydrological processes. In this, the first of a pair of papers, we present the conceptual framework for a model of peatland development, DigiBog, which considers peatlands as complex adaptive systems. DigiBog accounts for the interactions between the processes which govern litter production and peat decay, peat soil hydraulic properties, and peatland water-table behaviour, in a novel and genuinely ecohydrological manner. DigiBog consists of a number of interacting submodels, each representing a different aspect of peatland ecohydrology. Here we present in detail the mathematical and computational basis, as well as the implementation and testing, of the hydrological submodel. Remaining submodels are described and analysed in the accompanying paper. Tests of the hydrological submodel against analytical solutions for simple aquifers were highly successful: the greatest deviation between DigiBog and the analytical solutions was 2·83%. We also applied the hydrological submodel to irregularly shaped aquifers with heterogeneous hydraulic properties—situations for which no analytical solutions exist—and found the model's outputs to be plausible.

How predation and landscape fragmentation affect vole population dynamics

Background: Microtine species in Fennoscandia display a distinct north-south gradient from regular cycles to stable populations. The gradient has often been attributed to changes in the interactions between microtines and their predators. Although the spatial structure of the environment is known to influence predator-prey dynamics of a wide range of species, it has scarcely been considered in relation to the Fennoscandian gradient. Furthermore, the length of microtine breeding season also displays a north-south gradient. However, little consideration has been given to its role in shaping or generating population cycles. Because these factors covary along the gradient it is difficult to distinguish their effects experimentally in the field. The distinction is here attempted using realistic agent-based modelling. Methodology/Principal Findings: By using a spatially explicit computer simulation model based on behavioural and ecological data from the field vole (Microtus agrestis), we generated a number of repeated time series of vole densities whose mean population size and amplitude were measured. Subsequently, these time series were subjected to statistical autoregressive modelling, to investigate the effects on vole population dynamics of making predators more specialised, of altering the breeding season, and increasing the level of habitat fragmentation. We found that fragmentation as well as the presence of specialist predators are necessary for the occurrence of population cycles. Habitat fragmentation and predator assembly jointly determined cycle length and amplitude. Length of vole breeding season had little impact on the oscillations. Significance: There is good agreement between our results and the experimental work from Fennoscandia, but our results allow distinction of causation that is hard to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of landscape fragmentation for population cycling and we recommend that the degree of fragmentation be more fully considered in future analyses of vole dynamics.

Simulated anthropogenic changes in the Brewer–Dobson circulation, including its extension to high latitudes

Recent studies using comprehensive middle atmosphere models predict a strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation in response to climate change. To gain confidence in the realism of this result it is important to quantify and understand the contributions from the different components of stratospheric wave drag that cause this increase. Such an analysis is performed here using three 150-yr transient simulations from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM), a Chemistry-Climate Model that simulates climate change and ozone depletion and recovery. Resolved wave drag and parameterized orographic gravity wave drag account for 60% and 40%, respectively, of the long-term trend in annual mean net upward mass flux at 70 hPa, with planetary waves accounting for 60% of the resolved wave drag trend. Synoptic wave drag has the strongest impact in northern winter, where it accounts for nearly as much of the upward mass flux trend as planetary wave drag. Owing to differences in the latitudinal structure of the wave drag changes, the relative contribution of resolved and parameterized wave drag to the tropical upward mass flux trend over any particular latitude range is highly sensitive to the range of latitudes considered. An examination of the spatial structure of the climate change response reveals no straightforward connection between the low-latitude and high-latitude changes: while the model results show an increase in Arctic downwelling in winter, they also show a decrease in Antarctic downwelling in spring. Both changes are attributed to changes in the flux of stationary planetary wave activity into the stratosphere.

Arctic Oscillation and Antarctic Oscillation in internal atmospheric variability

n this study, we investigated the features of Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), that is, the annular modes in the extratropics, in the internal atmospheric variability attained through an ensemble of integrations by an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with the global observed SSTs. We focused on the interannual variability of AO/AAO, which is dominated by internal atmospheric variability. In comparison with previous observed results, the AO/AAO in internal atmospheric variability bear some similar characteristics, but exhibit a much clearer spatial structure: significant correlation between the North Pacific and North Atlantic centers of action, much stronger and more significant associated precipitation anomalies, and the meridional displacement of upper-tropospheric westerly jet streams in the Northern/Southern Hemisphere. In addition, we examined the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/AO and East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). It has been shown that in the internal atmospheric variability, the EAWM variation is significantly related to the NAO through upper-tropospheric atmospheric teleconnection patterns.

A diagnostic study of waves on the tropopause

The spatial structure and phase velocity of tropopause disturbances localized around the subpolar jet in the Southern Hemisphere are investigated using 6-hourly European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis data covering 15 yr (1979–93). The phase velocity and phase structure of the tropopause disturbances are in good agreement with those of an edge wave vertically trapped at the tropopause. However, the vertical distribution of the ratio of potential to kinetic energy exhibits maxima above and below the tropopause and a minimum around the tropopause, in contradiction to edge wave theory for which the ratio is unity throughout the troposphere and stratosphere. This difference in vertical structure between the observed tropopause disturbances and edge wave theory is attributed to the effects of a finite-depth tropopause together with the next-order corrections in Rossby number to quasigeostrophic dynamics

The utility of aerial pan-trapping for assessing insect pollinators across vertical strata

Insect pollinators provide a critical ecosystem service by pollinating many wild flowers and crops. It is therefore essential to be able to effectively survey and monitor pollinator communities across a range of habitats, and in particular, sample the often stratified parts of the habitats where insects are found. To date, a wide array of sampling methods have been used to collect insect pollinators, but no single method has been used effectively to sample across habitat types and throughout the spatial structure of habitats. Here we present a method of ‘aerial pan-trapping’ that allows insect pollinators to be sampled across the vertical strata from the canopy of forests to agro-ecosystems. We surveyed and compared the species richness and abundance of a wide range of insect pollinators in agricultural, secondary regenerating forest and primary forest habitats in Ghana to evaluate the usefulness of this approach. In addition to confirming the efficacy of the method at heights of up to 30 metres and the effects of trap color on catch, we found greatest insect abundance in agricultural land and higher bee abundance and species richness in undisturbed forest compared to secondary forest.

On Rossby waves modified by weak sinusoidal shear

The spatial structure of beta-plane Rossby waves in a sinusoidal basic zonal flow U 0cos(γ,y) is determined analytically in the (stable) asymptotic limit of weak shear, U 0γ2 0/β≈1. The propagating neutral normal modes are found to take their greatest amplitude in the region of maximum westerly flow, while their most rapid phase variation is achieved in the region of maximum easterly flow. These results are shown to be consistent with what is obtained by ray-tracing methods in the limit of small meridional disturbance wavelength.

Transport timescales and tracer properties in the extratropical UTLS

A comprehensive evaluation of seasonal backward trajectories initialized in the northern hemisphere lowermost stratosphere (LMS) has been performed to investigate the factors that determine the temporal and spatial structure of troposphere-to-stratosphere-transport (TST) and it's impact on the LMS. In particular we explain the fundamental role of the transit time since last TST (tTST) for the chemical composition of the LMS. According to our results the structure of the LMS can be characterized by a layer with tTST<40 days forming a narrow band around the local tropopause. This layer extends about 30 K above the local dynamical tropopause, corresponding to the extratropical tropopause transition layer (ExTL) as identified by CO. The LMS beyond this layer shows a relatively well defined separation as marked by an aprupt transition to longer tTST indicating less frequent mixing and a smaller fraction of tropospheric air. Thus the LMS constitutes a region of two well defined regimes of tropospheric influence. These can be characterized mainly by different transport times from the troposphere and different fractions of tropospheric air. Carbon monoxide (CO) mirrors this structure of tTST due to it's finite lifetime on the order of three months. Water vapour isopleths, on the other hand, do not uniquely indicate TST and are independent of tTST, but are determined by the Lagrangian Cold Point (LCP) of air parcels. Most of the backward trajectories from the LMS experienced their LCP in the tropics and sub-tropics, and TST often occurs 20 days after trajectories have encountered their LCP. Therefore, ExTL properties deduced from CO and H2O provide totally different informations on transport and particular TST for the LMS.

A cross-calibration of GMS-5 thermal channels against ATSR-2

Motivated by the importance to weather and climate of the Indo-Pacific seas, we present a new calibration of the Visible Infrared Spin-Scan Radiometer (VISSR) on the geostationary meteorological satellite, GMS-5. VISSR imagery has significant potential for exploring the dynamics of the ocean and air–sea interactions in this poorly characterized region, by virtue of the VISSR's surface temperature retrieval capability and hourly sampling. However, the calibration of the thermal imagery supplied by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) is inconsistent with the spectral characteristics of the channels, and published details of the JMA calibration procedure are scant. We use the well-characterized Along-Track Scanning Radiometer 2 (ATSR-2) as a reference, and determine calibration corrections for GMS-5 VISSR. We obtain more credible VISSR brightness temperatures and demonstrate sea surface temperature (SST) retrieval that validates well against in situ measurements (bias ∼0.3 and scatter ∼0.4 K). Comparison with a widely used sea surface temperature analysis shows that the GMS-5 VISSR SST fields capture important spatial structure, absent in the analysis.

Assimilation of sea-ice concentration in a global climate model — physical and statistical aspects

We investigate the initialization of Northern-hemisphere sea ice in the global climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM by assimilating sea-ice concentration data. The analysis updates for concentration are given by Newtonian relaxation, and we discuss different ways of specifying the analysis updates for mean thickness. Because the conservation of mean ice thickness or actual ice thickness in the analysis updates leads to poor assimilation performance, we introduce a proportional dependence between concentration and mean thickness analysis updates. Assimilation with these proportional mean-thickness analysis updates significantly reduces assimilation error both in identical-twin experiments and when assimilating sea-ice observations, reducing the concentration error by a factor of four to six, and the thickness error by a factor of two. To understand the physical aspects of assimilation errors, we construct a simple prognostic model of the sea-ice thermodynamics, and analyse its response to the assimilation. We find that the strong dependence of thermodynamic ice growth on ice concentration necessitates an adjustment of mean ice thickness in the analysis update. To understand the statistical aspects of assimilation errors, we study the model background error covariance between ice concentration and ice thickness. We find that the spatial structure of covariances is best represented by the proportional mean-thickness analysis updates. Both physical and statistical evidence supports the experimental finding that proportional mean-thickness updates are superior to the other two methods considered and enable us to assimilate sea ice in a global climate model using simple Newtonian relaxation.

Assimilation of sea-ice concentration in a global climate model — physical and statistical aspects

We investigate the initialisation of Northern Hemisphere sea ice in the global climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM by assimilating sea-ice concentration data. The analysis updates for concentration are given by Newtonian relaxation, and we discuss different ways of specifying the analysis updates for mean thickness. Because the conservation of mean ice thickness or actual ice thickness in the analysis updates leads to poor assimilation performance, we introduce a proportional dependence between concentration and mean thickness analysis updates. Assimilation with these proportional mean-thickness analysis updates leads to good assimilation performance for sea-ice concentration and thickness, both in identical-twin experiments and when assimilating sea-ice observations. The simulation of other Arctic surface fields in the coupled model is, however, not significantly improved by the assimilation. To understand the physical aspects of assimilation errors, we construct a simple prognostic model of the sea-ice thermodynamics, and analyse its response to the assimilation. We find that an adjustment of mean ice thickness in the analysis update is essential to arrive at plausible state estimates. To understand the statistical aspects of assimilation errors, we study the model background error covariance between ice concentration and ice thickness. We find that the spatial structure of covariances is best represented by the proportional mean-thickness analysis updates. Both physical and statistical evidence supports the experimental finding that assimilation with proportional mean-thickness updates outperforms the other two methods considered. The method described here is very simple to implement, and gives results that are sufficiently good to be used for initialising sea ice in a global climate model for seasonal to decadal predictions.

Mid-Holocene climates of the Americas: a dynamical response to changed seasonality

Simulations of the climatic response to mid-Holocene (6 ka BP) orbital forcing with two coupled ocean–atmosphere models (FOAM and CSM) show enhancement of monsoonal precipitation in parts of the American Southwest, Central America and northernmost South America during Northern Hemisphere summer. The enhanced onshore flow that brings precipitation into Central America is caused by a northward displacement of the inter-tropical convergence zone, driven by cooling of the equatorial and warming of the northern subtropical and mid-latitude ocean. Ocean feedbacks also enhance precipitation over the American Southwest, although the increase in monsoon precipitation there is largely driven by increases in land-surface temperature. The northward shift in the equatorial precipitation band that causes enhanced precipitation in Central America and the American Southwest has a negative feedback effect on monsoonal precipitation in northern South America. The simulations demonstrate that mid-Holocene aridity in the mid-continent of North America is dynamically linked to the orbitally induced enhancement of the summer monsoon in the American Southwest, with a spatial structure (wet in the Southwest and dry in the mid-continent) similar to that found in strong monsoon years today. Changes in winter precipitation along the west coast of North America, in Central America and along the Gulf Coast, caused by southward-displacement of the westerly storm tracks, indicate that changes in the Northern Hemisphere winter monsoon also play a role in regional climate changes during the mid-Holocene. Although the simulations with FOAM and CSM differ in detail, the general mechanisms and patterns are common to both. The model results thus provide a coherent dynamical explanation for regional patterns of increased or decreased aridity shown by vegetation, lake status and aeolian data from the Americas

The Madden-Julian Oscillation and the diurnal cycle over the Maritime Continent: scale interactions and modelling

The Maritime Continent archipelago, situated on the equator at 95-165E, has the strongest land-based precipitation on Earth. The latent heat release associated with the rainfall affects the atmospheric circulation throughout the tropics and into the extra-tropics. The greatest source of variability in precipitation is the diurnal cycle. The archipelago is within the convective region of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which provides the greatest variability on intra-seasonal time scales: large-scale (∼10^7 km^2) active and suppressed convective envelopes propagate slowly (∼5 m s^-1) eastwards between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. High-resolution satellite data show that a strong diurnal cycle is triggered to the east of the advancing MJO envelope, leading the active MJO by one-eighth of an MJO cycle (∼6 days). Where the diurnal cycle is strong its modulation accounts for 81% of the variability in MJO precipitation. Over land this determines the structure of the diagnosed MJO. This is consistent with the equatorial wave dynamics in existing theories of MJO propagation. The MJO also affects the speed of gravity waves propagating offshore from the Maritime Continent islands. This is largely consistent with changes in static stability during the MJO cycle. The MJO and its interaction with the diurnal cycle are investigated in HiGEM, a high-resolution coupled model. Unlike many models, HiGEM represents the MJO well with eastward-propagating variability on intra-seasonal time scales at the correct zonal wavenumber, although the inter-tropical convergence zone's precipitation peaks strongly at the wrong time, interrupting the MJO's spatial structure. However, the modelled diurnal cycle is too weak and its phase is too early over land. The modulation of the diurnal amplitude by the MJO is also too weak and accounts for only 51% of the variability in MJO precipitation. Implications for forecasting and possible causes of the model errors are discussed, and further modelling studies are proposed.