A new floating model level scheme for the assimilation of boundary layer top inversions: the univariate assimilation of temperature.

The assimilation of observations with a forecast is often heavily influenced by the description of the error covariances associated with the forecast. When a temperature inversion is present at the top of the boundary layer (BL), a significant part of the forecast error may be described as a vertical positional error (as opposed to amplitude error normally dealt with in data assimilation). In these cases, failing to account for positional error explicitly is shown t o r esult in an analysis for which the inversion structure is erroneously weakened and degraded. In this article, a new assimilation scheme is proposed to explicitly include the positional error associated with an inversion. This is done through the introduction of an extra control variable to allow position errors in the a priori to be treated simultaneously with the usual amplitude errors. This new scheme, referred to as the ‘floating BL scheme’, is applied to the one-dimensional (vertical) variational assimilation of temperature. The floating BL scheme is tested with a series of idealised experiments a nd with real data from radiosondes. For each idealised experiment, the floating BL scheme gives an analysis which has the inversion structure and position in agreement with the truth, and outperforms the a ssimilation which accounts only for forecast a mplitude error. When the floating BL scheme is used to assimilate a l arge sample of radiosonde data, its ability to give an analysis with an inversion height in better agreement with that observed is confirmed. However, it is found that the use of Gaussian statistics is an inappropriate description o f t he error statistics o f t he extra c ontrol variable. This problem is alleviated by incorporating a non-Gaussian description of the new control variable in the new scheme. Anticipated challenges in implementing the scheme operationally are discussed towards the end of the article.

Scheduling satellite-based SAR acquisition for sequential assimilation of water level observations into flood modelling

Satellite-based Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) has proved useful for obtaining information on flood extent, which, when intersected with a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the floodplain, provides water level observations that can be assimilated into a hydrodynamic model to decrease forecast uncertainty. With an increasing number of operational satellites with SAR capability, information on the relationship between satellite first visit and revisit times and forecast performance is required to optimise the operational scheduling of satellite imagery. By using an Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) and a synthetic analysis with the 2D hydrodynamic model LISFLOOD-FP based on a real flooding case affecting an urban area (summer 2007,Tewkesbury, Southwest UK), we evaluate the sensitivity of the forecast performance to visit parameters. We emulate a generic hydrologic-hydrodynamic modelling cascade by imposing a bias and spatiotemporal correlations to the inflow error ensemble into the hydrodynamic domain. First, in agreement with previous research, estimation and correction for this bias leads to a clear improvement in keeping the forecast on track. Second, imagery obtained early in the flood is shown to have a large influence on forecast statistics. Revisit interval is most influential for early observations. The results are promising for the future of remote sensing-based water level observations for real-time flood forecasting in complex scenarios.

Pediastrum species as potential indicators of lake-level change in tropical South America

We explored the potential for using Pediastrum (Meyen), a genus of green alga commonly found in palaeoecological studies, as a proxy for lake-level change in tropical South America. The study site, Laguna La Gaiba (LLG) (17°45′S, 57°40′W), is a broad, shallow lake located along the course of the Paraguay River in the Pantanal, a 135,000-km2 tropical wetland located mostly in western Brazil, but extending into eastern Bolivia. Fourteen surface sediment samples were taken from LLG across a range of lake depths (2-5.2 m) and analyzed for Pediastrum. We found seven species, of which P. musteri (Tell et Mataloni), P. argentiniense (Bourr. et Tell), and P. cf. angulosum (Ehrenb.) ex Menegh. were identified as potential indicators of lake level. Results of the modern dataset were applied to 31 fossil Pediastrum assemblages spanning the early Holocene (12.0 kyr BP) to present to infer past lake level changes qualitatively. Early Holocene (12.0-9.8 kyr BP) assemblages do not show a clear signal, though abundance of P. simplex (Meyen) suggests relatively high lake levels. Absence of P. musteri, characteristic of deep, open water, and abundance of macrophyte-associated taxa indicate lake levels were lowest from 9.8 to 3.0 kyr BP. A shift to wetter conditions began at 4.4 kyr BP, indicated by the appearance of P. musteri, though inferred lake levels did not reach modern values until 1.4 kyr BP. The Pediastrum-inferred mid-Holocene lowstand is consistent with lower precipitation, previously inferred using pollen from this site, and is also in agreement with evidence for widespread drought in the South American tropics during the middle Holocene. An inference for steadily increasing lake level from 4.4 kyr BP to present is consistent with diatom-inferred water level rise at Lake Titicaca, and demonstrates coherence with the broad pattern of increasing monsoon strength from the late Holocene until present in tropical South America.

The processing of number and gender agreement in Spanish: an event related potential investigation of the effects of structural distance

Previous research suggests that the processing of agreement is affected by the distance between the agreeing elements. However, the unique contribution of structural distance (number of intervening syntactic phrases) to the processing of agreement remains an open question, since previous investigations do not tease apart structural and linear distance (number of intervening words). We used event related potentials (ERPs) to examine the extent to which structural distance impacts the processing of Spanish number and gender agreement. Violations were realized both within the phrase and across the phrase. Across both levels of structural distance, linear distance was kept constant, as was the syntactic category of the agreeing elements. Number and gender agreement violations elicited a robust P600 between 400 and 900ms, a component associated with morphosyntactic processing. No amplitude differences were observed between number and gender violations, suggesting that the two features are processed similarly at the brain level. Within-phrase agreement yielded more positive waveforms than across-phrase agreement, both for agreement violations and for grammatical sentences (no agreement by distance interaction). These effects can be interpreted as evidence that structural distance impacts the establishment of agreement overall, consistent with sentence processing models which predict that hierarchical structure impacts the processing of syntactic dependencies. However, due to the lack of an agreement by distance interaction, the possibility cannot be ruled out that these effects are driven by differences in syntactic predictability between the within-phrase and across-phrase configurations, notably the fact that the syntactic category of the critical word was more predictable in the within-phrase conditions.

Attribution of the spatial pattern of CO2-forced sea level change to ocean surface flux changes

Climate models taking part in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) all predict a global mean sea level rise for the 21st century. Yet the sea level change is not spatially uniform and differs among models. Here we evaluate the role of air–sea fluxes of heat, water and momentum (windstress) to find the spatial pattern associated to each of them as well as the spread they can account for. Using one AOGCM to which we apply the surface flux changes from other AOGCMs, we show that the heat flux and windstress changes dominate both the pattern and the spread, but taking the freshwater flux into account as well yields a sea level change pattern in better agreement with the CMIP5 ensemble mean. Differences among the CMIP5 control ocean temperature fields have a smaller impact on the sea level change pattern.

Service oriented approach to facility management using extended building information modelling

Facility management (FM), from a service oriented approach, addresses the functions and requirements of different services such as energy management, space planning and security service. Different service requires different information to meet the needs arising from the service. Object-based Building Information Modelling (BIM) is limited to support FM services; though this technology is able to generate 3D models that semantically represent facility’s information dynamically over the lifecycle of a building. This paper presents a semiotics-inspired framework to extend BIM from a service-oriented perspective. The extended BIM, which specifies FM services and required information, will be able to express building service information in the right format for the right purposes. The service oriented approach concerns pragmatic aspect of building’s information beyond semantic level. The pragmatics defines and provides context for utilisation of building’s information. Semiotics theory adopted in this paper is to address pragmatic issues of utilisation of BIM for FM services.

Knowledge dissemination in the global service marketing community

Purpose– The evolution of the service marketing field was marked by the emergence of a global, vigorous and tolerant community of service marketing researchers. This paper seeks to examine the history of the service marketing community and argues that it may be an archetype for building the emergent global service research community. Design/methodology/approach– The study combines qualitative and quantitative approaches. The authors interviewed four pioneering service scholars and also collected descriptive data (e.g. Authorship, Affiliation, Title, Keywords) of all service related articles published in 13 top peer‐reviewed marketing and service journals over the last 30 years (5,432 articles; 6,450 authors). In a dynamic analysis the authors mapped global collaboration between countries over time and detected clusters of international collaboration. Findings– Findings suggest a growing international collaboration for the USA and the UK, while for other countries like Israel the global collaboration started from a high level and decreases now. Further, the service marketing community never became polarized and there were always contributions from researchers all over the world. Research limitations/implications– As the global service research community is developing, service marketing becomes a research neighborhood within the broader service research community. Simultaneously, other research neighborhoods are emerging within this new community (e.g. service arts, service management, service engineering, service science). Originality/value– Anchored on the social evolution and biological evolution metaphors, this study explains the evolution of the service marketing field from both qualitative and quantitative perspectives. Furthermore, it explains the development of the service marketing community as an archetype for building the global service research community.

The brand likeability scale: an exploratory study of likeability in firm-level brands

We develop a new measurement scale to assess consumers’ brand likeability in firm-level brands. We present brand likeability as a multidimensional construct. In the context of service experience purchases, we find that increased likeability in brands results in: (1) greater amount of positive association; (2) increased interaction interest; (3) more personified quality; and (4) increased brand contentment. The four-dimensional multiple-item scale demonstrates good psychometric properties, showing strong evidence of reliability as well as convergent, discriminant and nomological validity. Our findings reveal that brand likeability is positively associated with satisfaction and positive word of mouth. The scale extends existing branding research, providing brand managers with a metric so that likeability can be managed strategically. It addresses the need for firms to act more likeably in an interaction-dominated economy. Focusing on likeability acts as a differentiator and encourages likeable brand personality traits. We present theoretical implications and future research directions on the holistic brand likeability concept.

Steric sea level variability (1993-2010) in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses and objective analyses

Quantifying the effect of the seawater density changes on sea level variability is of crucial importance for climate change studies, as the sea level cumulative rise can be regarded as both an important climate change indicator and a possible danger for human activities in coastal areas. In this work, as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project, the global and regional steric sea level changes are estimated and compared from an ensemble of 16 ocean reanalyses and 4 objective analyses. These estimates are initially compared with a satellite-derived (altimetry minus gravimetry) dataset for a short period (2003–2010). The ensemble mean exhibits a significant high correlation at both global and regional scale, and the ensemble of ocean reanalyses outperforms that of objective analyses, in particular in the Southern Ocean. The reanalysis ensemble mean thus represents a valuable tool for further analyses, although large uncertainties remain for the inter-annual trends. Within the extended intercomparison period that spans the altimetry era (1993–2010), we find that the ensemble of reanalyses and objective analyses are in good agreement, and both detect a trend of the global steric sea level of 1.0 and 1.1 ± 0.05 mm/year, respectively. However, the spread among the products of the halosteric component trend exceeds the mean trend itself, questioning the reliability of its estimate. This is related to the scarcity of salinity observations before the Argo era. Furthermore, the impact of deep ocean layers is non-negligible on the steric sea level variability (22 and 12 % for the layers below 700 and 1500 m of depth, respectively), although the small deep ocean trends are not significant with respect to the products spread.

Towards conceptualizing reverse service supply chains

Purpose – Recognizing the heterogeneity of services, this paper aims to clarify the characteristics of forward and the corresponding reverse supply chains of different services. Design/methodology/approach – The paper develops a two-dimensional typology matrix, representing four main clusters of services according to the degree of input standardization and the degree of output tangibility. Based on this matrix, this paper develops a typology and parsimonious conceptual models illustrating the characteristics of forward and the corresponding reverse supply chains of each cluster of services. Findings – The four main clusters of service supply chains have different characteristics. This provides the basis for the identification, presentation and explanation of the different characteristics of their corresponding reverse service supply chains. Research limitations/implications – The findings of this research can help future researchers to analyse, map and model forward and reverse service supply chains, and to identify potential research gaps in the area. Practical/implications – The findings of the research can help managers of service firms to gain better visibility of their forward and reverse supply chains, and refine their business models to help extend their reverse/closed-loop activities. Furthermore, the findings can help managers to better optimize their service operations to reduce service gaps and potentially secure new value-adding opportunities. Originality/value – This paper is the first, to the authors ' knowledge, to conceptualize the basic structure of the forward and reverse service supply chains while dealing with the high level of heterogeneity of services.