The cyclical behaviour of sector and regional diversification benefits: 1987-2002

This paper investigates the time series behaviour of the relative benefits of sector and regional diversification strategies, using the notion of cross-sectional dispersion introduced by Solnik and Roulet (2000). Using monthly data over the period 1987:1 to 2002:12, four sector and four regional classifications are examined in the UK. The results indicate that sector and regional dispersion indices are highly time varying and so dwarf any lower frequency cyclical components that may be present. Nonetheless, periods of high dispersion are closely followed by periods of low dispersion, suggestive of cyclical behaviour of sector and regional diversification benefits. Then, using the HP-filter we isolated the cyclical component of the various dispersion indices and found that the sector dispersion indices are generally above the regional dispersion indices. This implies that a sector diversification strategy is likely to offer greater risk reduction benefits than a regional diversification approach. Nonetheless, we find that in some periods, certain regional diversification strategies are of equal or greater benefit than certain sector approaches. The results also appear to be quite sensitive to the classifications of sectors and regions. Hence, the appropriate definition of sectors and regions can have important implications for sector and regional diversification strategies.

The case for REITs in the mixed-asset portfolio in the short and long run

The poor performance of the Stock Market in the US up to the middle of 2003 has meant that REITs are increasingly been seen as an attractive addition to the mixed-asset portfolio. However, there is little evidence to indicate the consistency of the role REITs should play a role in the mixed-asset portfolio over different investment horizons. The results highlight that REITs do play a significant role over both different time horizons and holding periods. The findings show that REITs attractiveness as a diversification asset increase as the holding period increases. In addition, their diversification qualities span the entire efficient frontier, providing return enhancement properties at the lower end, switching to risk reduction qualities at the top end of the frontier.

A framework of brand value in B2B markets: the contributing role of functional and emotional components

The creation of value is admittedly a critical task for marketers regardless of industry. This paper focuses on a type of value that has traditionally been perceived as irrelevant to industrial markets and argues that brand value facilitates the progression from goods and services value to relationship value. To address the limited amount of research on B2B branding from the suppliers' point of view, we complement insights gained from a literature review with ten exploratory interviews with B2B supplier managers, and develop a framework of brand value applicable to industrial markets. This identifies both the functional (i.e., quality, technology, capacity, infrastructure, after sales service, capabilities, reliability, innovation) and emotional qualities (i.e., risk reduction, reassurance, trust) important for the development of industrial brand equity. Situational (e.g. nature of the purchase) and environmental factors (e.g. the economic situation) affecting suppliers' perceptions of the importance of brand in a B2B context and the role of functional versus emotional brand qualities are discussed. The value of the brand as a driver for the development of business to business relationships is also highlighted. The framework provides a basis for B2B practitioners to build their brands in such a way as to make a functional as well as an emotional connection with buyers that is more likely to lead to a supplier–buyer relationship.

Sector, region or function? A MAD reassessment of real estate diversification in Great Britain

This paper re-examines whether it is more advantageous in terms of risk reduction to diversify by sector or region by comparing the performance of the ‘conventional’ regional classification of the UK with one based on modern socio-economic criteria using a much larger real estate data set than any previous study and the MAD portfolio approach. The general conclusion of this analysis is that property market sectors still dominate regions, however defined and so should be the first level of analysis when developing a portfolio diversification strategy. This is in line with previous research. When the performance of Functional groups is compared with the ‘conventional’ administrative regions the results here show that, when functionally based, groupings can in some cases provide greater risk reduction. In addition the underlying characteristics of these functional groups may be much more insightful and acceptable to real estate portfolio managers in considering the assets that a portfolio might contain.

The future returns for property required by UK pension funds: the BHS data

Previous studies of the place of Property in the multi-asset portfolio have generally relied on historical data, and have been concerned with the supposed risk reduction effects that Property would have on such portfolios. In this paper a different approach has been taken. Not only are expectations data used, but we have also concentrated upon the required return that Property would have to offer to achieve a holding of 15% in typical UK pension fund portfolios. Using two benchmark portfolios for pension funds, we have shown that Property's required return is less than that expected, and therefore it could justify a 15% holding.

Promoting resilient livelihoods through adaptive social protection: lessons from 124 programmes in South Asia

Adaptive Social Protection refers to efforts to integrate social protection (SP), disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA). The need to integrate these three domains is now increasingly recognized by practitioners and academics. Relying on 124 agricultural programmes implemented in 5 countries in Asia, this paper considers how these elements are being brought together, and explores the potential gains of these linkages. The analysis shows that full integration of SP, DRR and CCA interventions is still relatively limited but that when it occurs, integration helps to shift the time horizon beyond short-term interventions aimed at supporting peoples’ coping strategies and/or graduation objectives, toward longer-term interventions that can assist in promoting transformation towards climate and disaster resilient livelihood options.

Effects of acute consumption of a fruit and vegetable puree-based drink on vasodilation and oxidative status

Epidemiological studies indicate that diets rich in fruits and vegetables (F&V) are protective against cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Pureed F&V products retain many beneficial components, including flavonoids, carotenoids, vitamin C and dietary fibres. This study aimed to establish the physiological effects of acute ingestion of F&V puree-based drink (FVPD) on vasodilation, antioxidant status, phytochemical bioavailability and other CVD risk factors. 24 Subjects, aged 30-70 years, completed the randomised, single-blind, controlled, crossover test meal study. Subjects consumed 400 ml FVPD, or fruit-flavoured sugar-matched control, after following a low-flavonoid diet for 5 days. Blood and urine samples were collected throughout the study day and vascular reactivity was assessed at 90-minute intervals using laser Doppler iontophoresis (LDI). FVPD significantly increased plasma vitamin C (P=0.002) and total nitrate/nitrite (P=0.001) concentrations. There was a near significant time by treatment effect on ex vivo LDL oxidation (P=0.068), with a longer lag phase after consuming FVPD. During the 6 hours after juice consumption the antioxidant capacity of plasma increased significantly (P=0.003) and there was a simultaneous increase in plasma and urinary phenolic metabolites (P<0.05). There were significantly lower glucose and insulin peaks after ingestion of FVPD compared with control (P=0.019 and P=0.003) and a trend towards increased endothelium-dependent vasodilation following FVPD consumption (P=0.061). Overall, FVPD consumption significantly increased plasma vitamin C and total nitrate/nitrite concentrations, with a trend towards increased endothelium-dependent vasodilation. Pureed F&V products are useful vehicles for increasing micronutrient status, plasma antioxidant capacity and in vivo NO generation, which may contribute to CVD risk reduction.

Case study part 1: how to calculate appropriate deterministic long-term toxicity to exposure rates (TERs) for birds and mammals

In the European Union, first-tier assessment of the long-term risk to birds and mammals from pesticides is based on calculation of a deterministic long-term toxicity/exposure ratio(TERlt). The ratio is developed from generic herbivores and insectivores and applied to all species. This paper describes two case studies that implement proposed improvements to the way long-term risk is assessed. These refined methods require calculation of a TER for each of five identified phases of reproduction (phase-specific TERs) and use of adjusted No Observed Effect Levels (NOELs)to incorporate variation in species sensitivity to pesticides. They also involve progressive refinement of the exposure estimate so that it applies to particular species, rather than generic indicators, and relates spraying date to onset of reproduction. The effect of using these new methods on the assessment of risk is described. Each refinement did not necessarily alter the calculated TER value in a way that was either predictable or consistent across both case studies. However, use of adjusted NOELs always reduced TERs, and relating spraying date to onset of reproduction increased most phase-specific TERs. The case studies suggested that the current first-tier TERlt assessment may underestimate risk in some circumstances and that phase-specific assessments can help identify appropriate risk-reduction measures. The way in which deterministic phase-specific assessments can currently be implemented to enhance first-tier assessment is outlined.

Replacement of saturated with unsaturated fats had no impact on vascular function but beneficial effects on lipid biomarkers, E-selectin and blood pressure: results from the randomized, controlled Dietary Intervention and VAScular function (DIVAS) study

Background: Public health strategies to lower cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk involve reducing dietary saturated fatty acid (SFA) intake to ≤10% of total energy (%TE). However, the optimal type of replacement fat is unclear. Objective: We investigated the substitution of 9.5-9.6%TE dietary SFA with either monounsaturated (MUFA) or n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) on vascular function and other CVD risk factors. Design: Using a randomized, controlled, single-blind, parallel group dietary intervention, 195 men and women aged 21-60 y with moderate CVD risk (≥50% above the population mean) from the United Kingdom followed one of three 16-wk isoenergetic diets (%TE target compositions, total fat:SFA:MUFA:n-6 PUFA): SFA-rich (36:17:11:4, n = 65), MUFA-rich (36:9:19:4, n = 64) or n-6 PUFA-rich (36:9:13:10, n = 66). The primary outcome measure was flow-mediated dilatation (%FMD); secondary outcome measures included fasting serum lipids, microvascular reactivity, arterial stiffness, ambulatory blood pressure, and markers of insulin resistance, inflammation and endothelial activation. Results: Replacing SFA with MUFA or n-6 PUFA did not significantly impact on %FMD (primary endpoint) or other measures of vascular reactivity. Of the secondary outcome measures, substitution of SFA with MUFA attenuated the increase in night systolic blood pressure (-4.9 mm Hg, P = 0.019) and reduced E-selectin (-7.8%, P = 0.012). Replacement with MUFA or n-6 PUFA lowered fasting serum total cholesterol (TC; -8.4% and -9.2%, respectively), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (-11.3% and -13.6%) and TC to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (-5.6% and -8.5%) (P ≤ 0.001). These changes in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol equate to an estimated 17-20% reduction in CVD mortality. Conclusions: Substitution of 9.5-9.6%TE dietary SFA with either MUFA or n-6 PUFA did not impact significantly on %FMD or other measures of vascular function. However, the beneficial effects on serum lipid biomarkers, blood pressure and E-selectin offer a potential public health strategy for CVD risk reduction.

The monetary benefit of early flood warnings in Europe

Effective disaster risk management relies on science-based solutions to close the gap between prevention and preparedness measures. The consultation on the United Nations post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction highlights the need for cross-border early warning systems to strengthen the preparedness phases of disaster risk management, in order to save lives and property and reduce the overall impact of severe events. Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems provide vital early flood warning information to national and international civil protection authorities, who can use this information to make decisions on how to prepare for upcoming floods. Here the potential monetary benefits of early flood warnings are estimated based on the forecasts of the continental-scale European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) using existing flood damage cost information and calculations of potential avoided flood damages. The benefits are of the order of 400 Euro for every 1 Euro invested. A sensitivity analysis is performed in order to test the uncertainty in the method and develop an envelope of potential monetary benefits of EFAS warnings. The results provide clear evidence that there is likely a substantial monetary benefit in this cross-border continental-scale flood early warning system. This supports the wider drive to implement early warning systems at the continental or global scale to improve our resilience to natural hazards.

Adaptive social protection: mapping the evidence and policy context in the agriculture sector in south Asia

An aim of government and the international community is to respond to global processes and crises through a range of policy and practical approaches that help limit damage from shocks and stresses. Three approaches to vulnerability reduction that have become particularly prominent in recent years are social protection (SP), disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA). Although these approaches have much in common, they have developed separately over the last two decades. However, given the increasingly complex and interlinked array of risks that poor and vulnerable people face, it is likely that they will not be sufficient in the long run if they continue to be applied in isolation from one another. In recognition of this challenge, the concept of Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) has been developed. ASP refers to a series of measures which aims to build resilience of the poorest and most vulnerable people to climate change by combining elements of SP, DRR and CCA in programmes and projects. The aim of this paper is to provide an initial assessment of the ways in which these elements are being brought together in development policy and practice. It does this by conducting a meta-analysis of 124 agricultural programmes implemented in five countries in south Asia. These are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan. The findings show that full integration of SP, DRR and CCA is relatively limited in south Asia, although there has been significant progress in combining SP and DRR in the last ten years. Projects that combine elements of SP, DRR and CCA tend to emphasise broad poverty and vulnerability reduction goals relative to those that do not. Such approaches can provide valuable lessons and insights for the promotion of climate resilient livelihoods amongst policymakers and practitioners.

Plenary Lecture 2: Milk and dairy produce and CVD: new perspectives on dairy and cardiovascular health

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. One of the key dietary recommendations for CVD prevention is reduction of saturated fat intake. Yet despite milk and dairy foods contributing on average 27 % of saturated fat intake in the UK diet, evidence from prospective cohort studies does not support a detrimental effect of milk and dairy foods on risk of CVD. This paper provides a brief overview of the role of milk and dairy products in the diets of UK adults, and will summarise the evidence in relation to the effects of milk and dairy consumption on CVD risk factors and mortality. The majority of prospective studies and meta-analyses examining the relationship between milk and dairy product consumption and risk of CVD show that milk and dairy products, excluding butter, are not associated with detrimental effects on CVD mortality or risk biomarkers, that include serum LDL cholesterol. In addition, there is increasing evidence that milk and dairy products are associated with lower blood pressure and arterial stiffness. These apparent benefits of milk and dairy foods have been attributed to their unique nutritional composition, and suggest that the elimination of milk and dairy may not be the optimum strategy for CVD risk reduction.

Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems

Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not exist. As numerical weather prediction models continue to improve, operational centres are increasingly using the meteorological output from these to drive hydrological models, creating hydrometeorological systems capable of forecasting river flow and flood events at much longer lead times than has previously been possible. Furthermore, developments in, for example, modelling capabilities, data and resources in recent years have made it possible to produce global scale flood forecasting systems. In this paper, the current state of operational large scale flood forecasting is discussed, including probabilistic forecasting of floods using ensemble prediction systems. Six state-of-the-art operational large scale flood forecasting systems are reviewed, describing similarities and differences in their approaches to forecasting floods at the global and continental scale. Currently, operational systems have the capability to produce coarse-scale discharge forecasts in the medium-range and disseminate forecasts and, in some cases, early warning products, in real time across the globe, in support of national forecasting capabilities. With improvements in seasonal weather forecasting, future advances may include more seamless hydrological forecasting at the global scale, alongside a move towards multi-model forecasts and grand ensemble techniques, responding to the requirement of developing multi-hazard early warning systems for disaster risk reduction.