Hitting emissions targets with (statistical) confidence in multi-instrument Emissions Trading Schemes

A means of assessing, monitoring and controlling aggregate emissions from multi-instrument Emissions Trading Schemes is proposed. The approach allows contributions from different instruments with different forms of emissions targets to be integrated. Where Emissions Trading Schemes are helping meet specific national targets, the approach allows the entry requirements of new participants to be calculated and set at a level that will achieve these targets. The approach is multi-levelled, and may be extended downwards to support pooling of participants within instruments, or upwards to embed Emissions Trading Schemes within a wider suite of policies and measures with hard and soft targets. Aggregate emissions from each instrument are treated stochastically. Emissions from the scheme as a whole are then the joint probability distribution formed by integrating the emissions from its instruments. Because a Bayesian approach is adopted, qualitative and semi-qualitative data from expert opinion can be used where quantitative data is not currently available, or is incomplete. This approach helps government retain sufficient control over emissions trading scheme targets to allow them to meet their emissions reduction obligations, while minimising the need for retrospectively adjusting existing participants’ conditions of entry. This maintains participant confidence, while providing the necessary policy levers for good governance.

High value information in engineering organisations

The management of information in engineering organisations is facing a particular challenge in the ever-increasing volume of information. It has been recognised that an effective methodology is required to evaluate information in order to avoid information overload and to retain the right information for reuse. By using, as a starting point, a number of the current tools and techniques which attempt to obtain ‘the value’ of information, it is proposed that an assessment or filter mechanism for information is needed to be developed. This paper addresses this issue firstly by briefly reviewing the information overload problem, the definition of value, and related research work on the value of information in various areas. Then a “characteristic” based framework of information evaluation is introduced using the key characteristics identified from related work as an example. A Bayesian Network diagram method is introduced to the framework to build the linkage between the characteristics and information value in order to quantitatively calculate the quality and value of information. The training and verification process for the model is then described using 60 real engineering documents as a sample. The model gives a reasonable accurate result and the differences between the model calculation and training judgements are summarised as the potential causes are discussed. Finally, several further issues including the challenge of the framework and the implementations of this evaluation assessment method are raised.

Relationships between gluten rheological properties and hearth loaf characteristics

The rheological properties of fresh gluten in small amplitude oscillation in shear (SAOS) and creep recovery after short application of stress was related to the hearth breadbaking performance of wheat flours using the multivariate statistics partial least squares (PLS) regression. The picture was completed by dough mixing and extensional properties, flour protein size distribution determined by SE-HPLC, and high molecular weight glutenin subunit (HMW-GS) composition. The sample set comprised 20 wheat cultivars grown at two different levels of nitrogen fertilizer in one location. Flours yielding stiffer and more elastic glutens, with higher elastic and viscous moduli (G' and G") and lower tan 8 values in SAOS, gave doughs that were better able to retain their shape during proving and baking, resulting in breads of high form ratios. Creep recovery measurements after short application of stress showed that glutens from flours of good breadmaking quality had high relative elastic recovery. The nitrogen fertilizer level affected the protein size distribution by an increase in monomeric proteins (gliadins), which gave glutens of higher tan delta and flatter bread loaves (lower form ratio).

Flavor characterization of sugar-added pennywort (Centella asiatica L.) juices treated with ultra-high pressure and thermal processes

The flavor characteristics of pennywort juices with added sugar treated by ultra-high pressure, pasteurization, and sterilization were investigated using solid phase microextraction combined with gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. It was found that sesquiterpene hydrocarbons comprised the major class of volatile components present and the juices had a characteristic aroma due to the presence of volatiles including beta-caryophyllene and humulene and alpha-copaene. In comparison with heated juices, HPP-treated samples could retain more volatile compounds such as linalool and geraniol similar to those present in fresh juice, whereas some volatiles such as alpha-terpinene and ketone class were apparently formed by thermal treatment. All processing operations produced juice that was not significantly different in the concentration of total volatiles. Practical Application: Pennywort juice is considered a nutraceutical drink for health benefits. Therefore, to preserve all aroma and active components in this juice, a nonthermal process such as ultra-high pressure should be a more appropriate technique for retention of its nutritive values than pasteurization and sterilization.

Informing people about the risks and benefits of medicines: implications for the safe and effective use of medicinal products

Providing effective information about drug risks and benefits has become a major challenge for health professionals, as many people are ill equipped to understand, retain and use the information effectively. This paper reviews the growing evidence that people’s understanding (and health behaviour) is not only affected by the content of medicines information, but also by the particular way in which it is presented. Such presentational factors include whether information is presented verbally or numerically, framed positively or negatively, whether risk reductions are described in relative or absolute terms (and baseline information included), and whether information is personalized or tailored in any way. It also looks at how understanding is affected by the order in which information is presented, and the way in which it is processed. The paper concludes by making a number of recommendations for providers of medicines information, about both the content and presentation of such information, that should enhance safe and effective medicines usage.

A new blind equalization algorithm based on convex combination

The convex combination is a mathematic approach to keep the advantages of its component algorithms for better performance. In this paper, we employ convex combination in the blind equalization to achieve better blind equalization. By combining the blind constant modulus algorithm (CMA) and decision directed algorithm, the combinative blind equalization (CBE) algorithm can retain the advantages from both. Furthermore, the convergence speed of the CBE algorithm is faster than both of its component equalizers. Simulation results are also given to verify the proposed algorithm.

Bio-energy retains its mitigation potential under elevated CO2

Background If biofuels are to be a viable substitute for fossil fuels, it is essential that they retain their potential to mitigate climate change under future atmospheric conditions. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] stimulates plant biomass production; however, the beneficial effects of increased production may be offset by higher energy costs in crop management. Methodology/Main findings We maintained full size poplar short rotation coppice (SRC) systems under both current ambient and future elevated [CO2] (550 ppm) and estimated their net energy and greenhouse gas balance. We show that a poplar SRC system is energy efficient and produces more energy than required for coppice management. Even more, elevated [CO2] will increase the net energy production and greenhouse gas balance of a SRC system with 18%. Managing the trees in shorter rotation cycles (i.e. 2 year cycles instead of 3 year cycles) will further enhance the benefits from elevated [CO2] on both the net energy and greenhouse gas balance. Conclusions/significance Adapting coppice management to the future atmospheric [CO2] is necessary to fully benefit from the climate mitigation potential of bio-energy systems. Further, a future increase in potential biomass production due to elevated [CO2] outweighs the increased production costs resulting in a northward extension of the area where SRC is greenhouse gas neutral. Currently, the main part of the European terrestrial carbon sink is found in forest biomass and attributed to harvesting less than the annual growth in wood. Because SRC is intensively managed, with a higher turnover in wood production than conventional forest, northward expansion of SRC is likely to erode the European terrestrial carbon sink.

Chestnut and mimosa tannin silages: Effects in sheep differ for apparent digestibility, nitrogen utilisation and losses

This paper reports effects of chestnut and mimosa tannins on N utilisation in sheep. Tannins were added to grass either at ensilage or incorporated into grass silage at feeding. The study used an 8 × 5 incomplete Latin Square design with eight mature wether sheep and five 21-day periods. Tannin additions reduced in vivo apparent digestibilities of dry matter (DM), organic matter (OM) and neutral detergent fibre (aNDFom) compared with the untreated control silage (P<0.001). Reductions ranged from 7.6% for DM to 8.5% for aNDFom. Chestnut compared to mimosa tannin silages produced higher values for DM intake (734 g/day versus 625 g/day) and in vivo digestibility for DM, OM and aNDFom (0.66, 0.68 and 0.69 versus 0.61, 0.63 and 0.62; P<0.001). A substantial shift occurred in the pattern of N excretion in sheep fed the tannin versus control silages. As a proportion of daily N intake, urinary N losses were lower (56.4 g/100 g N versus 65.1 g/100 g N intake) and faecal N losses were higher (40.2 g/100 g N versus 29.8 g/100 g N intake) for sheep fed the tannin silages compared with those fed the control grass silage (P<0.001). Nitrogen intake was higher in sheep fed the chestnut compared to mimosa tannin silages (16.2 g/day versus 13.4 g/day; P<0.001), reflecting the lower DM intake of sheep fed the mimosa silages. However, faecal N loss was lower for chestnut compared to mimosa tannin silage fed sheep (38.2 g/100 g N versus 42.1 g/100 g N intake; P<0.01), resulting in higher N retentions with the chestnut compared to the mimosa silage fed sheep (5.49 g/100 g N versus 1.38 g/100 g N intake). Faecal N losses were also higher when tannins were added during ensiling rather than at feeding (P<0.05). Although there was no overall effect of tannins on N retention in mature wether sheep, it is likely that productive ruminants with higher protein requirements would retain more N from silages containing chestnut tannins. Tannins added externally to grass silages may generate some benefits on N utilisation and environmental N excretions in sheep fed the silages.

Multimetallic ruthenium(II) complexes as electrochemiluminescent labels

Two homometallic complexes containing two and three ruthenium polypyridyl units linked by amino acid lysine (Lys) and the related dipeptide (LysLys) were synthesized and their electrochemical, spectroscopic, and electrochemiluminescence (ECL) properties were investigated. The electrochemical and photophysical data indicate that the two metal complexes largely retain the electronic properties of the reference compound for the separate ruthenium moieties in the two bridged complexes, [4-carboxypropyl-4'-methyl-2,2'-bipyridine]bis(2,2'-bipyridine)ruthenium(II) complex. The ECL studies, performed in aqueous media in the presence of tri-n-propylamine as co-reactant, show that the ECL intensity increases by 30% for the dinuclear and trinuclear complexes compared to the reference. Heterogeneous ECL immunoassay studies, performed on larger dendritic complexes containing up to eight ruthenium units, demonstrate that limitations due to the slow diffusion can easily be overcome by means of nanoparticle technology. In this case, the ECL signal is proportional to the number of ruthenium units. Multimetallic systems with several ruthenium centers may, however, undergo nonspecific bonding,to streptavidin-coated particles or to antibodies, thereby increasing the background ECL intensity and lowering the sensitivity of the immunoassay.

Differential recognition of Staphylococcus aureus quorum-sensing signals depends on both extracellular loops 1 and 2 of the transmembrane sensor AgrC.

Virulence in Staphylococcus aureus is regulated via agr-dependent quorum sensing in which an autoinducing peptide (AIP) activates AgrC, a histidine protein kinase. AIPs are usually thiolactones containing seven to nine amino acid residues in which the thiol of the central cysteine is linked to the alpha-carboxyl of the C-terminal amino acid residue. The staphylococcal agr locus has diverged such that the AIPs of the four different S. aureus agr groups self-activate but cross-inhibit. Consequently, although the agr system is conserved among the staphylococci, it has undergone significant evolutionary divergence whereby to retain functionality, any changes in the AIP-encoding gene (agrD) that modifies AIP structure must be accompanied by corresponding changes in the AgrC receptor. Since AIP-1 and AIP-4 only differ by a single amino acid, we compared the transmembrane topology of AgrC1 and AgrC4 to identify amino acid residues involved in AIP recognition. As only two of the three predicted extracellular loops exhibited amino acid differences, site-specific mutagenesis was used to exchange the key AgrC1 and AgrC4 amino acid residues in each loop either singly or in combination. A novel lux-based agrP3 reporter gene fusion was constructed to evaluate the response of the mutated AgrC receptors. The data obtained revealed that while differential recognition of AIP-1 and AIP-4 depends primarily on three amino acid residues in loop 2, loop 1 is essential for receptor activation by the cognate AIP. Furthermore, a single mutation in the AgrC1 loop 2 resulted in conversion of (Ala5)AIP-1 from a potent antagonist to an activator, essentially resulting in the forced evolution of a new AIP group. Taken together, our data indicate that loop 2 constitutes the predicted hydrophobic pocket that binds the AIP thiolactone ring while the exocyclic amino acid tail interacts with loop 1 to facilitate receptor activation.

An analysis of the impact of R&D on productivity using Bayesian model averaging with a reversible jump algorithm.

A Bayesian Model Averaging approach to the estimation of lag structures is introduced, and applied to assess the impact of R&D on agricultural productivity in the US from 1889 to 1990. Lag and structural break coefficients are estimated using a reversible jump algorithm that traverses the model space. In addition to producing estimates and standard deviations for the coe¢ cients, the probability that a given lag (or break) enters the model is estimated. The approach is extended to select models populated with Gamma distributed lags of di¤erent frequencies. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that R&D positively drives productivity. Gamma lags are found to retain their usefulness in imposing a plausible structure on lag coe¢ cients, and their role is enhanced through the use of model averaging.

Report of the 2010 assessment of the scientific assessment panel: future ozone and its impact on surface UV

SCIENTIFIC SUMMARY Globally averaged total column ozone has declined over recent decades due to the release of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) into the atmosphere. Now, as a result of the Montreal Protocol, ozone is expected to recover from the effects of ODSs as ODS abundances decline in the coming decades. However, a number of factors in addition to ODSs have led to and will continue to lead to changes in ozone. Discriminating between the causes of past and projected ozone changes is necessary, not only to identify the progress in ozone recovery from ODSs, but also to evaluate the effectiveness of climate and ozone protection policy options. Factors Affecting Future Ozone and Surface Ultraviolet Radiation • At least for the next few decades, the decline of ODSs is expected to be the major factor affecting the anticipated increase in global total column ozone. However, several factors other than ODS will affect the future evolution of ozone in the stratosphere. These include changes in (i) stratospheric circulation and temperature due to changes in long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) abundances, (ii) stratospheric aerosol loading, and (iii) source gases of highly reactive stratospheric hydrogen and nitrogen compounds. Factors that amplify the effects of ODSs on ozone (e.g., stratospheric aerosols) will likely decline in importance as ODSs are gradually eliminated from the atmosphere. • Increases in GHG emissions can both positively and negatively affect ozone. Carbon dioxide (CO2)-induced stratospheric cooling elevates middle and upper stratospheric ozone and decreases the time taken for ozone to return to 1980 levels, while projected GHG-induced increases in tropical upwelling decrease ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and increase ozone in the extratropics. Increases in nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) concentrations also directly impact ozone chemistry but the effects are different in different regions. • The Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) is projected to strengthen over the 21st century and thereby affect ozone amounts. Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the BDC or, more specifically, of the upwelling mass flux in the tropical lower stratosphere of around 2% per decade as a consequence of GHG abundance increases. A stronger BDC would decrease the abundance of tropical lower stratospheric ozone, increase poleward transport of ozone, and could reduce the atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived ODSs and other trace gases. While simulations showing faster ascent in the tropical lower stratosphere to date are a robust feature of chemistry-climate models (CCMs), this has not been confirmed by observations and the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. • Substantial ozone losses could occur if stratospheric aerosol loading were to increase in the next few decades, while halogen levels are high. Stratospheric aerosol increases may be caused by sulfur contained in volcanic plumes entering the stratosphere or from human activities. The latter might include attempts to geoengineer the climate system by enhancing the stratospheric aerosol layer. The ozone losses mostly result from enhanced heterogeneous chemistry on stratospheric aerosols. Enhanced aerosol heating within the stratosphere also leads to changes in temperature and circulation that affect ozone. • Surface ultraviolet (UV) levels will not be affected solely by ozone changes but also by the effects of climate change and by air quality change in the troposphere. These tropospheric effects include changes in clouds, tropospheric aerosols, surface reflectivity, and tropospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The uncertainties in projections of these factors are large. Projected increases in tropospheric ozone are more certain and may lead to reductions in surface erythemal (“sunburning”) irradiance of up to 10% by 2100. Changes in clouds may lead to decreases or increases in surface erythemal irradiance of up to 15% depending on latitude. Expected Future Changes in Ozone Full ozone recovery from the effects of ODSs and return of ozone to historical levels are not synonymous. In this chapter a key target date is chosen to be 1980, in part to retain the connection to previous Ozone Assessments. Noting, however, that decreases in ozone may have occurred in some regions of the atmosphere prior to 1980, 1960 return dates are also reported. The projections reported on in this chapter are taken from a recent compilation of CCM simulations. The ozone projections, which also form the basis for the UV projections, are limited in their representativeness of possible futures since they mostly come from CCM simulations based on a single GHG emissions scenario (scenario A1B of Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2000) and a single ODS emissions scenario (adjusted A1 of the previous (2006) Ozone Assessment). Throughout this century, the vertical, latitudinal, and seasonal structure of the ozone distribution will be different from what it was in 1980. For this reason, ozone changes in different regions of the atmosphere are considered separately. • The projections of changes in ozone and surface clear-sky UV are broadly consistent with those reported on in the 2006 Assessment. • The capability of making projections and attribution of future ozone changes has been improved since the 2006 Assessment. Use of CCM simulations from an increased number of models extending through the entire period of ozone depletion and recovery from ODSs (1960–2100) as well as sensitivity simulations have allowed more robust projections of long-term changes in the stratosphere and of the relative contributions of ODSs and GHGs to those changes. • Global annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels before the middle of the century and earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading returns to 1980 levels. CCM projections suggest that this early return is primarily a result of GHG-induced cooling of the upper stratosphere because the effects of circulation changes on tropical and extratropical ozone largely cancel. Global (90°S–90°N) annually averaged total column ozone will likely return to 1980 levels between 2025 and 2040, well before the return of stratospheric halogens to 1980 levels between 2045 and 2060. • Simulated changes in tropical total column ozone from 1960 to 2100 are generally small. The evolution of tropical total column ozone in models depends on the balance between upper stratospheric increases and lower stratospheric decreases. The upper stratospheric increases result from declining ODSs and a slowing of ozone destruction resulting from GHG-induced cooling. Ozone decreases in the lower stratosphere mainly result from an increase in tropical upwelling. From 1960 until around 2000, a general decline is simulated, followed by a gradual increase to values typical of 1980 by midcentury. Thereafter, although total column ozone amounts decline slightly again toward the end of the century, by 2080 they are no longer expected to be affected by ODSs. Confidence in tropical ozone projections is compromised by the fact that simulated decreases in column ozone to date are not supported by observations, suggesting that significant uncertainties remain. • Midlatitude total column ozone is simulated to evolve differently in the two hemispheres. Over northern midlatitudes, annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values between 2015 and 2030, while for southern midlatitudes the return to 1980 values is projected to occur between 2030 and 2040. The more rapid return to 1980 values in northern midlatitudes is linked to a more pronounced strengthening of the poleward transport of ozone due to the effects of increased GHG levels, and effects of Antarctic ozone depletion on southern midlatitudes. By 2100, midlatitude total column ozone is projected to be above 1980 values in both hemispheres. • October-mean Antarctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels after midcentury, later than in any other region, and yet earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to 1980 levels. The slightly earlier return of ozone to 1980 levels (2045–2060) results primarily from upper stratospheric cooling and resultant increases in ozone. The return of polar halogen loading to 1980 levels (2050–2070) in CCMs is earlier than in empirical models that exclude the effects of GHG-induced changes in circulation. Our confidence in the drivers of changes in Antarctic ozone is higher than for other regions because (i) ODSs exert a strong influence on Antarctic ozone, (ii) the effects of changes in GHG abundances are comparatively small, and (iii) projections of ODS emissions are more certain than those for GHGs. Small Antarctic ozone holes (areas of ozone <220 Dobson units, DU) could persist to the end of the 21st century. • March-mean Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels two to three decades before polar halogen loading returns to 1980 levels, and to exceed 1980 levels thereafter. While CCM simulations project a return to 1980 levels between 2020 and 2035, most models tend not to capture observed low temperatures and thus underestimate present-day Arctic ozone loss such that it is possible that this return date is biased early. Since the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation through the 21st century leads to increases in springtime Arctic column ozone, by 2100 Arctic ozone is projected to lie well above 1960 levels. Uncertainties in Projections • Conclusions dependent on future GHG levels are less certain than those dependent on future ODS levels since ODS emissions are controlled by the Montreal Protocol. For the six GHG scenarios considered by a few CCMs, the simulated differences in stratospheric column ozone over the second half of the 21st century are largest in the northern midlatitudes and the Arctic, with maximum differences of 20–40 DU between the six scenarios in 2100. • There remain sources of uncertainty in the CCM simulations. These include the use of prescribed ODS mixing ratios instead of emission fluxes as lower boundary conditions, the range of sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, missing tropospheric chemistry, model parameterizations, and model climate sensitivity. • Geoengineering schemes for mitigating climate change by continuous injections of sulfur-containing compounds into the stratosphere, if implemented, would substantially affect stratospheric ozone, particularly in polar regions. Ozone losses observed following large volcanic eruptions support this prediction. However, sporadic volcanic eruptions provide limited analogs to the effects of continuous sulfur emissions. Preliminary model simulations reveal large uncertainties in assessing the effects of continuous sulfur injections. Expected Future Changes in Surface UV. While a number of factors, in addition to ozone, affect surface UV irradiance, the focus in this chapter is on the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone on surface UV. For this reason, clear-sky surface UV irradiance is calculated from ozone projections from CCMs. • Projected increases in midlatitude ozone abundances during the 21st century, in the absence of changes in other factors, in particular clouds, tropospheric aerosols, and air pollutants, will result in decreases in surface UV irradiance. Clear-sky erythemal irradiance is projected to return to 1980 levels on average in 2025 for the northern midlatitudes, and in 2035 for the southern midlatitudes, and to fall well below 1980 values by the second half of the century. However, actual changes in surface UV will be affected by a number of factors other than ozone. • In the absence of changes in other factors, changes in tropical surface UV will be small because changes in tropical total column ozone are projected to be small. By the middle of the 21st century, the model projections suggest surface UV to be slightly higher than in the 1960s, very close to values in 1980, and slightly lower than in 2000. The projected decrease in tropical total column ozone through the latter half of the century will likely result in clear-sky surface UV remaining above 1960 levels. Average UV irradiance is already high in the tropics due to naturally occurring low total ozone columns and high solar elevations. • The magnitude of UV changes in the polar regions is larger than elsewhere because ozone changes in polar regions are larger. For the next decades, surface clear-sky UV irradiance, particularly in the Antarctic, will continue to be higher than in 1980. Future increases in ozone and decreases in clear-sky UV will occur at slower rates than those associated with the ozone decreases and UV increases that occurred before 2000. In Antarctica, surface clear-sky UV is projected to return to 1980 levels between 2040 and 2060, while in the Arctic this is projected to occur between 2020 and 2030. By 2100, October surface clear-sky erythemal irradiance in Antarctica is likely to be between 5% below to 25% above 1960 levels, with considerable uncertainty. This is consistent with multi-model-mean October Antarctic total column ozone not returning to 1960 levels by 2100. In contrast, by 2100, surface clear-sky UV in the Arctic is projected to be 0–10% below 1960 levels.

Strategic organization in projects and firms through software integration

As integrated software solutions reshape project delivery, they alter the bases for collaboration and competition across firms in complex industries. This paper synthesises and extends literatures on strategy in project-based industries and digitally-integrated work to understand how project-based firms interact with digital infrastructures for project delivery. Four identified strategies are to: 1) develop and use capabilities to shape the integrated software solutions that are used in projects; 2) co-specialize, developing complementary assets to work repeatedly with a particular integrator firm; 3) retain flexibility by developing and maintaining capabilities in multiple digital technologies and processes; and 4) manage interfaces, translating work into project formats for coordination while hiding proprietary data and capabilities in internal systems. The paper articulates the strategic importance of digital infrastructures for delivery as well as product architectures. It concludes by discussing managerial implications of the identified strategies and areas for further research.

Geographic distribution of plant pathogens in response to climate change

Geographic distributions of pathogens are the outcome of dynamic processes involving host availability, susceptibility and abundance, suitability of climate conditions, and historical contingency including evolutionary change. Distributions have changed fast and are changing fast in response to many factors, including climatic change. The response time of arable agriculture is intrinsically fast, but perennial crops and especially forests are unlikely to adapt easily. Predictions of many of the variables needed to predict changes in pathogen range are still rather uncertain, and their effects will be profoundly modified by changes elsewhere in the agricultural system, including both economic changes affecting growing systems and hosts and evolutionary changes in pathogens and hosts. Tools to predict changes based on environmental correlations depend on good primary data, which is often absent, and need to be checked against the historical record, which remains very poor for almost all pathogens. We argue that at present the uncertainty in predictions of change is so great that the important adaptive response is to monitor changes and to retain the capacity to innovate, both by access to economic capital with reasonably long-term rates of return and by retaining wide scientific expertise, including currently less fashionable specialisms.

Effect of insulin on adipose tissue lipolysis in human pregnancy

Adipose tissue has been shown to retain its sensitivity to the antilipolytic effects of insulin during late pregnancy. This suggests that during late pregnancy, increased adipose tissue lipolysis is due to a lipolytic factor rather than insulin resistance.