German open ended funds: was there a valuation problem?

In late 2005, a number of German open ended funds suffered significant withdrawals by unit holders. The crisis was precipitated by a long term bear market in German property investment and the fact that these funds offered short term liquidity to unit holders but had low levels of liquidity in the fund. A more controversial suggestion was that the crisis was exacerbated by a perception that the valuations of the fund were too infrequent and inaccurate. As units are priced by reference to these valuations with no secondary market, the valuation process is central to the process. There is no direct evidence that these funds were over-valued but there is circumstantial evidence and this paper examines the indirect evidence of the process to see whether the hypothesis that valuation is an issue for the German funds holds any credibility. It also discusses whether there is a wider issue for other funds of this nature or whether it is a parochial problem confined to Germany. The conclusions are that there is reason to believe that German valuation processes make over-valuation in a recession more likely than in other countries and that more direct research into the German valuation system is required to identify the issues which need to be addressed to make the valuation system more trusted.

Biotic carbon feedbacks in a materially-closed soil-vegetation-atmosphere system

The magnitude and direction of the coupled feedbacks between the biotic and abiotic components of the terrestrial carbon cycle is a major source of uncertainty in coupled climate–carbon-cycle models1, 2, 3. Materially closed, energetically open biological systems continuously and simultaneously allow the two-way feedback loop between the biotic and abiotic components to take place4, 5, 6, 7, but so far have not been used to their full potential in ecological research, owing to the challenge of achieving sustainable model systems6, 7. We show that using materially closed soil–vegetation–atmosphere systems with pro rata carbon amounts for the main terrestrial carbon pools enables the establishment of conditions that balance plant carbon assimilation, and autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration fluxes over periods suitable to investigate short-term biotic carbon feedbacks. Using this approach, we tested an alternative way of assessing the impact of increased CO2 and temperature on biotic carbon feedbacks. The results show that without nutrient and water limitations, the short-term biotic responses could potentially buffer a temperature increase of 2.3 °C without significant positive feedbacks to atmospheric CO2. We argue that such closed-system research represents an important test-bed platform for model validation and parameterization of plant and soil biotic responses to environmental changes.

Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: a scientific assessment

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth’s climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr�-1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m�-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27)Wm�-2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m�-2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m�-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m�-2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m�-2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (�-0.50 to +1.08) W m-�2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (�-0.06 W m�-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of �-1.45 to +1.29 W m�-2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

GridRM: an extensible resource monitoring system

GridRM is an open and extensible resource monitoring system, based on the Global Grid Forum's Grid Monitoring Architecture (GMA). GridRM is not intended to interact with applications; rather it is designed to monitor the resources that an application may use. This paper focuses on the dynamic driver infrastructure used by GridRM to interact with heterogeneous data sources, such as SNMP or Ganglia agents, and how it provides a homogeneous view of the underlying heterogeneous data. This paper discusses the local infrastructure and details work implementing and deploying a number of drivers.

Mid-Holocene land-surface conditions in northern Africa and the Arabian peninsula: a data set for the analysis of biogeophysical feedbacks in the climate system

Large changes in the extent of northern subtropical arid regions during the Holocene are attributed to orbitally forced variations in monsoon strength and have been implicated in the regulation of atmospheric trace gas concentrations on millenial timescales. Models that omit biogeophysical feedback, however, are unable to account for the full magnitude of African monsoon amplification and extension during the early to middle Holocene (˜9500–5000 years B.P.). A data set describing land-surface conditions 6000 years B.P. on a 1° × 1° grid across northern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula has been prepared from published maps and other sources of palaeoenvironmental data, with the primary aim of providing a realistic lower boundary condition for atmospheric general circulation model experiments similar to those performed in the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. The data set includes information on the percentage of each grid cell occupied by specific vegetation types (steppe, savanna, xerophytic woods/scrub, tropical deciduous forest, and tropical montane evergreen forest), open water (lakes), and wetlands, plus information on the flow direction of major drainage channels for use in large-scale palaeohydrological modeling.

The XWS open access catalogue of extreme European windstorms from 1979 to 2012

The XWS (eXtreme WindStorms) catalogue consists of storm tracks and model-generated maximum 3 s wind-gust footprints for 50 of the most extreme winter windstorms to hit Europe in the period 1979–2012. The catalogue is intended to be a valuable resource for both academia and industries such as (re)insurance, for example allowing users to characterise extreme European storms, and validate climate and catastrophe models. Several storm severity indices were investigated to find which could best represent a list of known high-loss (severe) storms. The best-performing index was Sft, which is a combination of storm area calculated from the storm footprint and maximum 925 hPa wind speed from the storm track. All the listed severe storms are included in the catalogue, and the remaining ones were selected using Sft. A comparison of the model footprint to station observations revealed that storms were generally well represented, although for some storms the highest gusts were underestimated. Possible reasons for this underestimation include the model failing to simulate strong enough pressure gradients and not representing convective gusts. A new recalibration method was developed to estimate the true distribution of gusts at each grid point and correct for this underestimation. The recalibration model allows for storm-to-storm variation which is essential given that different storms have different degrees of model bias. The catalogue is available at www.europeanwindstorms.org.

Excitation and decay of solar-wind driven flows in the magnetosphere-ionosphere system

Basic concepts of the form of high-latitude ionospheric flows and their excitation and decay are discussed in the light of recent high time-resolution measurements made by ground-based radars. It is first pointed out that it is in principle impossible to adequately parameterize these flows by any single quantity derived from concurrent interplanetary conditions. Rather, even at its simplest, the flow must be considered to consist of two basic time-dependent components. The first is the flow driven by magnetopause coupling processes alone, principally by dayside reconnection. These flows may indeed be reasonably parameterized in terms of concurrent near-Earth interplanetary conditions, principally by the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) vector. The second is the flow driven by tail reconnection alone. As a first approximation these flows may also be parameterized in terms of interplanetary conditions, principally the north-south component of the IMF, but with a delay in the flow response of around 30-60 min relative to the IMF. A delay in the tail response of this order must be present due to the finite speed of information propagation in the system, and we show how "growth" and "decay" of the field and flow configuration then follow as natural consequences. To discuss the excitation and decay of the two reconnection-driven components of the flow we introduce that concept of a flow-free equilibrium configuration for a magnetosphere which contains a given (arbitrary) amount of open flux. Reconnection events act either to create or destroy open flux, thus causing departures of the system from the equilibrium configuration. Flow is then excited which moves the system back towards equilibrium with the changed amount of open flux. We estimate that the overall time scale associated with the excitation and decay of the flow is about 15 min. The response of the system to both impulsive (flux transfer event) and continuous reconnection is discussed in these terms.

Simulations of a photovoltaic-thermal ground source heat pump system

A ground source heat pump assisted by an array of photovoltaic (PV)-thermal modules was studied in this work. Extracting heat from an array of PV modules should improve the performance of both the PV cells and the heat pump. A series of computer simulations compare the performance of a ground source heat pump with a short ground circuit, used to provide space heating and domestic hot water at a house in southern England. The results indicate that extracting heat from an array of PV-thermal modules would improve the performance of a ground source heat pump with an undersized ground loop. Nevertheless, open air thermal collectors could be more effective, especially during winter. In one model more electricity was saved in ohmic heating than was generated by cooling the PV cells. Cooling the PV modules was found to increase their electrical output up to 4%, but much of the extra electricity was consumed by the cooling pumps.

GPR30 activation decreases anxiety in the open field test but not in the elevated plus maze test in female mice

The GPR30 is a novel estrogen receptor (ER) that is a candidate membrane ER based on its binding to 17beta estradiol and its rapid signaling properties such as activation of the extracellular-regulated kinase (ERK) pathway. Its distribution in the mouse limbic system predicts a role for this receptor in the estrogenic modulation of anxiety behaviors in the mouse. A previous study showed that chronic administration of a selective agonist to the GPR30 receptor, G-1, in the female rat can improve spatial memory, suggesting that GPR30 plays a role in hippocampal-dependent cognition. In this study, we investigated the effect of a similar chronic administration of G-1 on behaviors that denote anxiety in adult ovariectomized female mice, using the elevated plus maze (EPM) and the open field test as well as the activation of the ERK pathway in the hippocampus. Although estradiol benzoate had no effect on behaviors in the EPM or the open field, G-1 had an anxiolytic effect solely in the open field that was independent of ERK signaling in either the ventral or dorsal hippocampus. Such an anxiolytic effect may underlie the ability of G-1 to increase spatial memory, by acting on the hippocampus.

A case study of the Tatweer school system in Saudi Arabia: the perceptions of leaders and teachers

School reform is a major concern in many countries that seek to improve their educational systems and enhance their performances. In consequence, many global schemes, theories, studies, attempts, and programmes have been introduced to promote education in recent years. Saudi Arabia is one of these countries that implemented educational change by introducing many initiatives. The Tatweer Programme is one of these initiatives and is considered as a major recent reform. The main purpose of this study is to investigate this reform in depth by examining the perceptions and experiences of the Tatweer leaders and teachers to find out which extent they have been enabled to be innovative, and to examine the types of leadership and decision-making that have been undertaken by such schools. This study adopted a qualitative case study that employed interviews, focus groups and documentary analysis. The design of the study has been divided into two phases; the first phase was the feasibility study and the second phase was the main study. The research sample of the feasibility study was head teachers, educational experts and Tatweer Unit’s members. The sample of the main study was three Tatweer schools, Tatweer Unit members and one official of Tatweer Project in Riyadh. The findings of this study identified the level of autonomy in managing the school; the Tatweer schools’ system is semi-autonomous when it comes to the internal management, but it lacks autonomy when it comes to staff appointment, student assessment, and curriculum development. In addition, the managerial work has been distributed through teams and members; the Excellence Team plays a critical role in school effectiveness leading an efficient change. Moreover, Professional Learning Communities have been used to enhance the work within Tatweer schools. Finally the findings show that there have been major shifts in the Tatweer schools’ system; the shifting from centralisation to semi-decentralisation; from the culture of the individual to the culture of community; from the traditional school to one focused on self-evaluation and planning; from management to leadership; and from an isolated school being open to society. These shifts have impacted positively on the attitudes of students, parents and staff.