Output risk aspects of genetically modified crop technology in South Africa

Technology involving genetic modification of crops has the potential to make a contribution to rural poverty reduction in many developing countries. Thus far, insecticide-producing 'Bt' varieties of cotton have been the main GM crops under cultivation in developing nations. Several studies have evaluated the farm-level performance of Bt varieties in comparison to conventional ones by estimating production technology, and have mostly found Bt technology to be very successful in raising output and/or reducing insecticide input. However, the production risk properties of this technology have not been studied, although they are likely to be important to risk-averse smallholders. This study investigates the output risk aspects of Bt technology using a three-year farm-level dataset on smallholder cotton production in Makhathini flats, Kwa-Zulu Natal, South Africa. Stochastic dominance and stochastic production function estimation methods are used to examine the risk properties of the two technologies. Results indicate that Bt technology increases output risk by being most effective when crop growth conditions are good, but being less effective when conditions are less favourable. However, in spite of its risk increasing effect, the mean output performance of Bt cotton is good enough to make it preferable to conventional technology even for risk-averse smallholders.

Production risk, pesticide use and GM crop technology in South Africa

Technology involving genetic modification of crops has the potential to make a contribution to rural poverty reduction in many developing countries. Thus far, pesticide-producing Bacillus thuringensis (Bt) varieties of cotton have been the main GM crops under cultivation in developing nations. Several studies have evaluated the farm-level performance of Bt varieties in comparison to conventional ones by estimating production technology, and have mostly found Bt technology to be very successful in raising output and/or reducing pesticide input. However, the production risk properties of this technology have not been studied, although they are likely to be important to risk-averse smallholders. This study investigates the output risk aspects of Bt technology by estimating two 'flexible risk' production function models allowing technology to independently affect the mean and higher moments of output. The first is the popular Just-Pope model and the second is a more general 'damage control' flexible risk model. The models are applied to cross-sectional data on South African smallholders, some of whom used Bt varieties. The results show no evidence that a 'risk-reduction' claim can be made for Bt technology. Indeed, there is some evidence to support the notion that the technology increases output risk, implying that simple (expected) profit computations used in past evaluations may overstate true benefits.

The impact of livestock assets among indigenous communities: findings from a comparative model in Bolivia

Measuring poverty has occupied a lot of space in the development discourse. Over the years a number of approaches have been offered to capture the experience of what it means to be poor. However, latterly such approaches often ignore core assets. Indeed, the comparative impact of livestock vs. other core assets such as land and education on poverty has not been well explored. Therefore, the authors created an 'asset impact model' to examine changes to both tangible and intangible assets at the household level, with a particular focus on gender and ethnicity among communities residing in the Bolivian Altiplano. The simple model illustrates that for indigenous women, a 20 per cent increase in the livestock herd has the same impact on household income as increasing the education levels by 20 per cent and household land ownership by 5 per cent. The study illustrates the potential role of a productive, tangible asset, i.e. livestock, on poverty reduction in the short term. The policy implications of supporting asset-focused measures of poverty are discussed.

Strengthening artisanal mining research and policy through baseline census activities

Over the past 10-15 years, several governments have implemented an array of technology, support-related, sustainable livelihoods (SL) and poverty-reduction projects for artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM). In the majority of cases, however, these interventions have failed to facilitate improvements in the industry's productivity and raise the living standards of the sector's subsistence operators. This article argues that a poor understanding of the demographics of target populations has precipitated these outcomes. In order to strengthen policy and assistance in the sector, governments must determine, with greater precision, the number of people operating in ASM regions, their origins and ethnic backgrounds, ages, and educational levels. This can be achieved by carrying out basic and localized census work before promoting ambitious sector-specific projects aimed at improving working conditions in the industry.

Can REDD+ reconcile local priorities and needs with global mitigation benefits? lessons from Angai Forest, Tanzania

The scope of the reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) mechanism has broadened REDD+ to accommodate different country interests such as natural forests, protected areas, as well as forests under community-based management. In Tanzania the REDD+ mechanism is still under development and pilot projects are at an early stage. In this paper, we seek to understand how local priorities and needs could be met in REDD+ implementation and how these expectations match with global mitigation benefits. We examine the local priorities and needs in the use of land and forest resources in the Angai Villages Land Forest Reserve (AVLFR) in the Liwale District of Lindi Region in Tanzania. Primary data was collected in two villages, Mihumo and Lilombe, using semistructured key informant interviews and participatory rural appraisal methods. In addition, the key informant interviews were conducted with other village, district, and national level actors, as well as international donors. Findings show that in the two communities REDD+ is seen as something new and is generating new expectations among communities. However, the Angai villagers highlight three key priorities that have yet to be integrated into the design of REDD+: water scarcity, rural development, and food security. At the local level improved forest governance and sustainable management of forest resources have been identified as one way to achieve livelihood diversification. Although the national goals of REDD+ include poverty reduction, these goals are not necessarily conducive to the goals of these communities. There exist both structural and cultural limits to the ability of the Angai villages to implement these goals and to improve forestry governance. Given the vulnerability to current and future climate variability and change it will be important to consider how the AVLFR will be managed and for whose benefit?

The implications of improved communications for participatory forest management in Tanzania

Following the 1998 National Forest Policy and Forest Act of 2002, participatory forest management (PFM) is being introduced in Tanzania. PFM has two key objectives: to reduce forest degradation thereby increasing ecosystem services, and to improve the livelihoods of local villagers. A unique data set collected in 2006 suggests that significant challenges remain with respect to communicating the new forest policies if the objectives of PFM are to be achieved. First, villagers as a group are much less well informed than other stakeholders, and their knowledge is often inaccurate. Second, women are less likely than men to have heard of the changes. Third, how PFM will contribute to poverty reduction (a key objective of PFM) is not always clear. Fourth, environmental degradation may not be reduced as much as anticipated – without alternatives sources, villagers often continue to cut trees for charcoal and firewood in the protected forests. Finally, several mismatches in perceptions are identified that could lead to difficulties in implementing PFM.

Economic transformation in Ghana: where will the path lead?

In the context of the Ghanaian government’s objective of structural transformation with an emphasis on manufacturing, this paper provides a case study of economic transformation in Ghana, exploring patterns of growth, sectoral transformation, and agglomeration. We document and examine why, despite impressive growth and poverty reduction figures, Ghana’s economy has exhibited less transformation than might be expected for a country that has recently achieved middle-income status. Ghana’s reduced share of agriculture in the economy, unlike many successfully transformed countries in Asia and Latin America, has been filled by services, while manufacturing has stagnated and even declined. Likely causes include weak transformation of the agricultural sector and therefore little development of agroprocessing, the emergence of consumption cities and consumption-driven growth, upward pressure on the exchange rate, weak production linkages, and a poor environment for private-sector-led manufacturing.

Privatisation, empowerment and accountability: What are the policy implications for establishing effective farmer organisations?

Weak institutional development and information flows have constrained the extent to which the small-holder farming sector in developing countries can significantly drive growth and poverty reduction. Thisis despite widely implemented economic liberalisation policies focussing on market efficiency. Farmerorganisations are viewed as a potential means of addressing public and private institutional failure but thishas frequently been limited by inequalities in access to power and information. This article investigatestwo issues that have received little research attention to date: what role downward accountability plays inenabling farmer organisations to improve services and markets, and what influences the extent to whichdownward accountability is achieved. Kenya Tea Development Agency (KTDA), one of the largest farmerorganisations in the world (>400,000 farmers) is examined alongside wider literature. Mixed methodswere used including key informant interviews, and eight months of participant observation followedby a questionnaire survey. The article concludes that without effective downward accountability farmerorganisations can become characterised by institutions and mechanisms that favour elites, restrictedweak coordination and regulation, and manipulated information flows. This in turn reduces individuals’incentives to invest. If farmer organisations are to realise their potential as a means of enabling the small-holder sector to significantly contribute to economic growth and poverty reduction, policy and researchneeds to address key factors which influence accountability including: how to ensure initial processes information of farmer organisations establish appropriate structures and rules; strong state regulation toenhance corporate accountability; transparent information provision regarding actions of farmer organi-sation leaders; and the role independent non-government organisations can play. Consequently attentionneeds to focus on developing means of legitimising rights, building poor people’s capacity to challengeexclusion, and moving from rights to obligations regarding information provision.

Locking-in carbon, locking-out livelihoods? ASM and REDD in Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper examines the potential mutual conflict between interventions aimed at formalising artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) on the one hand, and policies implemented in response to the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) initiative on the other. Deforestation caused by ASM undermines sound forest management, and potentially threatens the implementation of REDD. Conversely, the adoption of REDD could further marginalise and criminalise the ASM sector, reducing its contribution to poverty alleviation. Reviewing a series of commonalities between ASM and forest management highlights many difficulties facing policy-makers. Potentially, contradictory outcomes of evolving governance arrangements means novel cross-sectoral institutions will be required in order to realise the full potential of REDD and ASM to address poverty reduction in a complementary fashion. The analysis reiterates the centrality of livelihoods to REDD and the need for policies to take into account local contexts.

Economic Transformation in Ghana: Where Will the Path Lead?

In the context of the Ghanaian government’s objective of structural transformation with an emphasis on manufacturing, this paper provides a case study of economic transformation in Ghana, exploring patterns of growth, sector transformation, and agglomeration. We document and examine why, despite impressive growth and poverty reduction figures, Ghana’s economy has exhibited less transformation than might be expected for a country that has recently achieved middle-income status. Ghana’s reduced share of agriculture in the economy, unlike many successfully transformed countries in Asia and Latin America, has been filled by services, while manufacturing has stagnated and even declined. Likely causes include weak transformation of the agricultural sector and therefore little development of agro-processing, the emergence of “consumption cities” and consumption-driven growth, upward pressure on the exchange rate, weak production linkages, and a poor environment for private-sector-led manufacturing.

Crop yield reduction in the tropics under climate change: Processes and uncertainties

Many modelling studies examine the impacts of climate change on crop yield, but few explore either the underlying bio-physical processes, or the uncertainty inherent in the parameterisation of crop growth and development. We used a perturbed-parameter crop modelling method together with a regional climate model (PRECIS) driven by the 2071-2100 SRES A2 emissions scenario in order to examine processes and uncertainties in yield simulation. Crop simulations used the groundnut (i.e. peanut; Arachis hypogaea L.) version of the General Large-Area Model for annual crops (GLAM). Two sets of GLAM simulations were carried out: control simulations and fixed-duration simulations, where the impact of mean temperature on crop development rate was removed. Model results were compared to sensitivity tests using two other crop models of differing levels of complexity: CROPGRO, and the groundnut model of Hammer et al. [Hammer, G.L., Sinclair, T.R., Boote, K.J., Wright, G.C., Meinke, H., and Bell, M.J., 1995, A peanut simulation model: I. Model development and testing. Agron. J. 87, 1085-1093]. GLAM simulations were particularly sensitive to two processes. First, elevated vapour pressure deficit (VPD) consistently reduced yield. The same result was seen in some simulations using both other crop models. Second, GLAM crop duration was longer, and yield greater, when the optimal temperature for the rate of development was exceeded. Yield increases were also seen in one other crop model. Overall, the models differed in their response to super-optimal temperatures, and that difference increased with mean temperature; percentage changes in yield between current and future climates were as diverse as -50% and over +30% for the same input data. The first process has been observed in many crop experiments, whilst the second has not. Thus, we conclude that there is a need for: (i) more process-based modelling studies of the impact of VPD on assimilation, and (ii) more experimental studies at super-optimal temperatures. Using the GLAM results, central values and uncertainty ranges were projected for mean 2071-2100 crop yields in India. In the fixed-duration simulations, ensemble mean yields mostly rose by 10-30%. The full ensemble range was greater than this mean change (20-60% over most of India). In the control simulations, yield stimulation by elevated CO2 was more than offset by other processes-principally accelerated crop development rates at elevated, but sub-optimal, mean temperatures. Hence, the quantification of uncertainty can facilitate relatively robust indications of the likely sign of crop yield changes in future climates. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tumour necrosis factor alpha induces rapid reduction in AMPA receptor-mediated calcium entry in motor neurones by increasing cell surface expression of the GluR2 subunit: relevance to neurodegeneration

The AMPA receptor (AMPAR) subunit GluR2, which regulates excitotoxicity and the inflammatory cytokine tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF alpha) have both been implicated in motor neurone vulnerability in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis/Motor Neurone Disease. TNF alpha has been reported to increase cell surface expression of AMPAR subunits to increase synaptic strength and enhance excitotoxicity, but whether this mechanism occurs in motor neurones is unknown. We used primary cultures of mouse motor neurones and cortical neurones to examine the interaction between TNF alpha receptor activation, GluR2 availability, AMPAR-mediated calcium entry and susceptibility to excitotoxicity. Short exposure to a physiologically relevant concentration of TNFalpha (10 ng/ml, 15 min) caused a marked redistribution of both GluR1 and GluR2 to the cell surface as determined by cell surface biotinylation and immunofluorescence. Using Fura-2 AM microfluorimetry we showed that exposure to TNFalpha caused a rapid reduction in the peak amplitude of AMPA-mediated calcium entry in a PI3-kinase and p38 kinase-dependent manner, consistent with increased insertion of GluR2-containing AMPAR into the plasma membrane. This resulted in a protection of motor neurones against kainate-induced cell death. Our data therefore, suggests that TNF alpha acts primarily as a physiological regulator of synaptic activity in motor neurones rather than a pathological drive in ALS

Poverty, migration and sex work: youth transitions in Ethiopia

Despite an emerging body of work on youth transitions, research has yet to explore the often unconventional routes to adulthood for young people marginalised through poverty. By drawing on interviews with 60 young commercial sex workers in Ethiopia, this paper explores the connections between poverty, migration and sex work and demonstrates that sex work provides a risky alternative, but often successful, path to independence for some rural-urban migrants. The paper concludes by offering recommendations for policies that seek to support young sex workers by enabling them to maintain their independence while seeking different employment.