Sampling uncertainty properties of cloud fraction estimates from random transect observations

[1] Cloud cover is conventionally estimated from satellite images as the observed fraction of cloudy pixels. Active instruments such as radar and Lidar observe in narrow transects that sample only a small percentage of the area over which the cloud fraction is estimated. As a consequence, the fraction estimate has an associated sampling uncertainty, which usually remains unspecified. This paper extends a Bayesian method of cloud fraction estimation, which also provides an analytical estimate of the sampling error. This method is applied to test the sensitivity of this error to sampling characteristics, such as the number of observed transects and the variability of the underlying cloud field. The dependence of the uncertainty on these characteristics is investigated using synthetic data simulated to have properties closely resembling observations of the spaceborne Lidar NASA-LITE mission. Results suggest that the variance of the cloud fraction is greatest for medium cloud cover and least when conditions are mostly cloudy or clear. However, there is a bias in the estimation, which is greatest around 25% and 75% cloud cover. The sampling uncertainty is also affected by the mean lengths of clouds and of clear intervals; shorter lengths decrease uncertainty, primarily because there are more cloud observations in a transect of a given length. Uncertainty also falls with increasing number of transects. Therefore a sampling strategy aimed at minimizing the uncertainty in transect derived cloud fraction will have to take into account both the cloud and clear sky length distributions as well as the cloud fraction of the observed field. These conclusions have implications for the design of future satellite missions. This paper describes the first integrated methodology for the analytical assessment of sampling uncertainty in cloud fraction observations from forthcoming spaceborne radar and Lidar missions such as NASA's Calipso and CloudSat.

The effect of soil phosphorus on particulate phosphorus in land runoff

Accumulation of surplus phosphorus (P) in the soil and the resulting increased transport of P in land runoff contribute to freshwater eutrophication. The effects of increasing soil P (19–194 mg Olsen-P (OP) kg−1) on the concentrations of particulate P (PP), and sorption properties (Qmax, k and EPCo) of suspended solids (SS) in overland flow from 15 unreplicated field plots established on a dispersive arable soil were measured over three monitoring periods under natural rainfall. Concentrations of PP in plot runoff increased linearly at a rate of 2.6 μg litre−1 per mg OP kg−1 of soil, but this rate was approximately 50% of the rate of increase in dissolved P (< 0.45 μm). Concentrations of SS in runoff were similar across all plots and contained a greater P sorption capacity (mean + 57%) than the soil because of enrichment with fine silt and clay (0.45–20 μm). As soil P increased, the P enrichment ratio of the SS declined exponentially, and the values of P saturation (Psat; 15–42%) and equilibrium P concentration (EPCo; 0.7–5.5 mg litre−1) in the SS fell within narrower ranges compared with the soils (6–74% and 0.1–10 mg litre−1, respectively). When OP was < 100 mg kg−1, Psat and EPCo values in the SS were smaller than those in the soil and vice-versa, suggesting that eroding particles from soils with both average and high P fertility would release P on entering the local (Rosemaund) stream. Increasing soil OP from average to high P fertility increased the P content of the SS by approximately 10%, but had no significant (P > 0.05) effect on the Psat, or EPCo, of the SS. Management options to reduce soil P status as a means of reducing P losses in land runoff and minimizing eutrophication risk may therefore have more limited effect than is currently assumed in catchment management.

Airborne measurements of the spatial distribution of aerosol chemical composition across Europe and evolution of the organic fraction

The spatial distribution of aerosol chemical composition and the evolution of the Organic Aerosol (OA) fraction is investigated based upon airborne measurements of aerosol chemical composition in the planetary boundary layer across Europe. Sub-micron aerosol chemical composition was measured using a compact Time-of-Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (cToF-AMS). A range of sampling conditions were evaluated, including relatively clean background conditions, polluted conditions in North-Western Europe and the near-field to far-field outflow from such conditions. Ammonium nitrate and OA were found to be the dominant chemical components of the sub-micron aerosol burden, with mass fractions ranging from 20--50% each. Ammonium nitrate was found to dominate in North-Western Europe during episodes of high pollution, reflecting the enhanced NO_x and ammonia sources in this region. OA was ubiquitous across Europe and concentrations generally exceeded sulphate by 30--160%. A factor analysis of the OA burden was performed in order to probe the evolution across this large range of spatial and temporal scales. Two separate Oxygenated Organic Aerosol (OOA) components were identified; one representing an aged-OOA, termed Low Volatility-OOA and another representing fresher-OOA, termed Semi Volatile-OOA on the basis of their mass spectral similarity to previous studies. The factors derived from different flights were not chemically the same but rather reflect the range of OA composition sampled during a particular flight. Significant chemical processing of the OA was observed downwind of major sources in North-Western Europe, with the LV-OOA component becoming increasingly dominant as the distance from source and photochemical processing increased. The measurements suggest that the aging of OA can be viewed as a continuum, with a progression from a less oxidised, semi-volatile component to a highly oxidised, less-volatile component. Substantial amounts of pollution were observed far downwind of continental Europe, with OA and ammonium nitrate being the major constituents of the sub-micron aerosol burden. Such anthropogenically perturbed air masses can significantly perturb regional climate far downwind of major source regions.

A study by high energy transfer inelastic neutron scattering spectroscopy of the mineral fraction of ox femur bone

We have used high energy transfer (HET) inelastic neutron scattering spectroscopy to measure the vibrational modes in the spectra of hydroxyapatite, bone and brushite to confirm our earlier work that only a fraction of the hydroxyl groups in bone mineral are substituted. The HET spectra are better observed due to the higher scattering cross section of hydrogen compared with the other elements in the calcium phosphate compounds. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A study by high energy transfer inelastic neutron scattering spectroscopy of the mineral fraction of ox femur bone

We have used high energy transfer (HET) inelastic neutron scattering spectroscopy to measure the vibrational modes in the spectra of hydroxyapatite, bone and brushite to confirm our earlier work that only a fraction of the hydroxyl groups in bone mineral are substituted. The HET spectra are better observed due to the higher scattering cross section of hydrogen compared with the other elements in the calcium phosphate compounds. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Particulate matter mass concentration (PM10) under different ventilation methods in classrooms

Recently, studies have shown that the classroom environment is very important for students' health and performance. Thus, the evaluation of indoor air quality (IAQ) in a classroom is necessary to ensure students' well-being. In this paper the emphasis is on airborne concentration of particulate matter (PM) in adult education rooms. The mass concentration of PM10 particulates was measured in two classrooms under different ventilation methods in the University of Reading, UK, during the winter period of 2008. In another study the measurement of the concentration of particles was accompanied with measurements of CO2 concentration in these classrooms but this study is the subject of another publication. The ambient PM10, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, and rainfall events were monitored as well. In general, this study showed that outdoor particle concentrations and outdoor meteorological parameters were identified as significant factors influencing indoor particle concentration levels. Ventilation methods showed significant effects on air change rate and on indoor/outdoor (I/O) concentration ratios. Higher levels of indoor particulates were seen during occupancy periods. I/O ratios were significantly higher when classrooms were occupied than when they were unoccupied, indicating the effect of both people presence and outdoor particle concentration levels. The concentrations of PM10 indoors and outdoors did not meet the requirements of WHO standards for PM10 annual average.

Verification of cloud-fraction forecasts

Cloud radar and lidar can be used to evaluate the skill of numerical weather prediction models in forecasting the timing and placement of clouds, but care must be taken in choosing the appropriate metric of skill to use due to the non- Gaussian nature of cloud-fraction distributions. We compare the properties of a number of different verification measures and conclude that of existing measures the Log of Odds Ratio is the most suitable for cloud fraction. We also propose a new measure, the Symmetric Extreme Dependency Score, which has very attractive properties, being equitable (for large samples), difficult to hedge and independent of the frequency of occurrence of the quantity being verified. We then use data from five European ground-based sites and seven forecast models, processed using the ‘Cloudnet’ analysis system, to investigate the dependence of forecast skill on cloud fraction threshold (for binary skill scores), height, horizontal scale and (for the Met Office and German Weather Service models) forecast lead time. The models are found to be least skillful at predicting the timing and placement of boundary-layer clouds and most skilful at predicting mid-level clouds, although in the latter case they tend to underestimate mean cloud fraction when cloud is present. It is found that skill decreases approximately inverse-exponentially with forecast lead time, enabling a forecast ‘half-life’ to be estimated. When considering the skill of instantaneous model snapshots, we find typical values ranging between 2.5 and 4.5 days. Copyright c 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Measurement and prediction of the effect of students activities on airborne particulate concentration in a classroom.

Epidemiological studies have shown links between human exposure to indoor airborne particles and adverse health affects. Several recent studies have also reported that the classroom environment has an impact on students’ health and performance. In this study particle concentration in a university classroom is assessed experimentally for different occupancy periods. The mass concentrations of different particle size ranges (0.3 – 20 µm), and the three particulate matter fractions (PM10, PM2.5, and PM1) were measured simultaneously in a classroom with different occupancy periods including occupied and unoccupied periods in the University of Reading, UK, during the winter period of 2010. The results showed that students’ presence is a significant factor affecting particles concentration for the fractions above PM1 in the measured range of 0.3 to 20 µm. The resuspension of the three PM fractions was also determined in the study.