Simulating regional scale secondary organic aerosol formation during the TORCH 2003 campaign in the southern UK

A photochemical trajectory model has been used to simulate the chemical evolution of air masses arriving at the TORCH field campaign site in the southern UK during late July and August 2003, a period which included a widespread and prolonged photochemical pollution episode. The model incorporates speciated emissions of 124 nonmethane anthropogenic VOC and three representative biogenic VOC, coupled with a comprehensive description of the chemistry of their degradation. A representation of the gas/aerosol absorptive partitioning of ca. 2000 oxygenated organic species generated in the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM v3.1) has been implemented, allowing simulation of the contribution to organic aerosol (OA) made by semi- and non-volatile products of VOC oxidation; emissions of primary organic aerosol (POA) and elemental carbon (EC) are also represented. Simulations of total OA mass concentrations in nine case study events (optimised by comparison with observed hourly-mean mass loadings derived from aerosol mass spectrometry measurements) imply that the OA can be ascribed to three general sources: (i) POA emissions; (ii) a '' ubiquitous '' background concentration of 0.7 mu g m(-3); and (iii) gas-to-aerosol transfer of lower volatility products of VOC oxidation generated by the regional scale processing of emitted VOC, but with all partitioning coefficients increased by a species-independent factor of 500. The requirement to scale the partitioning coefficients, and the implied background concentration, are both indicative of the occurrence of chemical processes within the aerosol which allow the oxidised organic species to react by association and/or accretion reactions which generate even lower volatility products, leading to a persistent, non-volatile secondary organic aerosol (SOA). The contribution of secondary organic material to the simulated OA results in significant elevations in the simulated ratio of organic carbon (OC) to EC, compared with the ratio of 1.1 assigned to the emitted components. For the selected case study events, [OC]/[EC] is calculated to lie in the range 2.7-9.8, values which are comparable with the high end of the range reported in the literature.

Metallo-organic domino reactions: C-H versus C-C bond breaking

HL and MeL are prepared by condensing benzil dihydrazone with 2-formylpyridine and 2-acetylpyridine, respectively, in 1:2 molar proportions. While in a reaction with [Ru-(C6H6)Cl-2](2), HL yields the cation [Ru(C6H6){5,6-diphenyl-3-(pyridin-2-yl)- 1,2,4-triazine}Cl](+), MeL gives the cation [Ru(C6H6)(MeL)Cl](+). Both the cations are isolated as their hexafluorophosphate salts and characterised by X-ray crystallography. In the case of HL, double domino electrocyclic/elimination reactions are found to occur. The electrocyclic reaction occurs in a C=N-N=C-C=N fragment of HL and the elimination reaction involves breaking of a C-H bond of HL. Density functional calculations on model complexes indicate that the identified electrocyclic reaction is thermochemically as well as kinetically feasible for both HL and MeL in the gas phase. For a double domino reaction, similar to that operative in HL, to occur for MeL, breaking of a C-C bond would be required in the elimination step. Our model calculations show the energy barrier for this elimination step to be much higher (329.1 kJ mol(-1)) for MeL than that for HL (96.3 kJ mol(-1)). Thus, the domino reaction takes place for HL and not for MeL. This accounts for the observed stability of [Ru(C6H6)-(MeL)Cl](+) under the reaction conditions employed.

Buffering of recovery from acidification by organic acids

In the United Kingdom, as in other regions of Europe and North America, recent decreases in surface water sulphate concentrations, due to reduced sulphur emissions, have coincided with marked increases in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations. Since many of the compounds comprising DOC are acidic, the resulting increases in organic acidity may have the potential to offset the benefits of a decrease in mineral (sulphate) acidity. To test this, we used a triprotic model of organic acid dissociation to estimate the proportional organic acid buffering of reduced mineral acidity as measured in the 22 lakes and streams monitored by the UK Acid Waters Monitoring Network. For an average non-marine sulphate decrease of 30 μeq l− 1 over 15 years from 1988–2003, we estimate that around 28% was counterbalanced by rising strong organic acids, 20% by rising alkalinity (partly attributable to an increase in weak organic acids), 11% by falling inorganic aluminium and 41% by falling non-marine base cations. The situation is complicated by a concurrent decrease in marine ion concentrations, and the impact this may have had on both DOC and acidity, but results clearly demonstrate that organic acid increases have substantially limited the amount of recovery from acidification (in terms of rising alkalinity and falling aluminium) that have resulted from reducing sulphur emissions. The consistency and magnitude of sulphate and organic acid changes are consistent with a causal link between the two, possibly due to the effects of changing acidity, ionic strength and aluminium concentrations on organic matter solubility. If this is the case, then organic acids can be considered effective but partial buffers to acidity change in organic soils, and this mechanism needs to be considered in assessing and modelling recovery from acidification, and in defining realistic reference conditions. However, large spatial variations in the relative magnitude of organic acid and sulphate changes, notably for low-deposition sites in northwestern areas where organic acid increases apparently exceed non-marine sulphate decreases, suggest that additional factors, such as changes in sea-salt deposition and climatic factors, may be required to explain the full magnitude of DOC increases in UK surface waters.

Influence of drought-induced acidification on the mobility of dissolved organic carbon in peat soils

A strong relationship between dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and sulphate (SO42−) dynamics under drought conditions has been revealed from analysis of a 10-year time series (1993–2002). Soil solution from a blanket peat at 10 cm depth and stream water were collected at biweekly and weekly intervals, respectively, by the Environmental Change Network at Moor House-Upper Teesdale National Nature Reserve in the North Pennine uplands of Britain. DOC concentrations in soil solution and stream water were closely coupled, displaying a strong seasonal cycle with lowest concentrations in early spring and highest in late summer/early autumn. Soil solution DOC correlated strongly with seasonal variations in soil temperature at the same depth 4-weeks prior to sampling. Deviation from this relationship was seen, however, in years with significant water table drawdown (>−25 cm), such that DOC concentrations were up to 60% lower than expected. Periods of drought also resulted in the release of SO42−, because of the oxidation of inorganic/organic sulphur stored in the peat, which was accompanied by a decrease in pH and increase in ionic strength. As both pH and ionic strength are known to control the solubility of DOC, inclusion of a function to account for DOC suppression because of drought-induced acidification accounted for more of the variability of DOC in soil solution (R2=0.81) than temperature alone (R2=0.58). This statistical model of peat soil solution DOC at 10 cm depth was extended to reproduce 74% of the variation in stream DOC over this period. Analysis of annual budgets showed that the soil was the main source of SO42− during droughts, while atmospheric deposition was the main source in other years. Mass balance calculations also showed that most of the DOC originated from the peat. The DOC flux was also lower in the drought years of 1994 and 1995, reflecting low DOC concentrations in soil and stream water. The analysis presented in this paper suggests that lower concentrations of DOC in both soil and stream waters during drought years can be explained in terms of drought-induced acidification. As future climate change scenarios suggest an increase in the magnitude and frequency of drought events, these results imply potential for a related increase in DOC suppression by episodic acidification.

Rifaximin modulates the colonic microbiota of patients with Crohn's disease: an in vitro approach using a continuous culture colonic model system.

Rifaximin, a rifamycin derivative, has been reported to induce clinical remission of active Crohn's disease (CD), a chronic inflammatory bowel disorder. In order to understand how rifaximin affects the colonic microbiota and its metabolism, an in vitro human colonic model system was used in this study. We investigated the impact of the administration of 1800 mg/day of rifaximin on the faecal microbiota of four patients affected by colonic active CD [Crohn's disease activity index (CDAI > 200)] using a continuous culture colonic model system. We studied the effect of rifaximin on the human gut microbiota using fluorescence in situ hybridization, quantitative PCR and PCR–denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis. Furthermore, we investigated the effect of the antibiotic on microbial metabolic profiles, using 1H-NMR and solid phase microextraction coupled with gas chromatography/mass spectrometry, and its potential genotoxicity and cytotoxicity, using Comet and growth curve assays. Rifaximin did not affect the overall composition of the gut microbiota, whereas it caused an increase in concentration of Bifidobacterium, Atopobium and Faecalibacterium prausnitzii. A shift in microbial metabolism was observed, as shown by increases in short-chain fatty acids, propanol, decanol, nonanone and aromatic organic compounds, and decreases in ethanol, methanol and glutamate. No genotoxicity or cytotoxicity was attributed to rifaximin, and conversely rifaximin was shown to have a chemopreventive role by protecting against hydrogen peroxide-induced DNA damage. We demonstrated that rifaximin, while not altering the overall structure of the human colonic microbiota, increased bifidobacteria and led to variation of metabolic profiles associated with potential beneficial effects on the host.

Model inter-comparison between statistical and dynamic model assessments of the long-term stability of blanket peat in Great Britain (1940-2099)

We compared output from 3 dynamic process-based models (DMs: ECOSSE, MILLENNIA and the Durham Carbon Model) and 9 bioclimatic envelope models (BCEMs; including BBOG ensemble and PEATSTASH) ranging from simple threshold to semi-process-based models. Model simulations were run at 4 British peatland sites using historical climate data and climate projections under a medium (A1B) emissions scenario from the 11-RCM (regional climate model) ensemble underpinning UKCP09. The models showed that blanket peatlands are vulnerable to projected climate change; however, predictions varied between models as well as between sites. All BCEMs predicted a shift from presence to absence of a climate associated with blanket peat, where the sites with the lowest total annual precipitation were closest to the presence/absence threshold. DMs showed a more variable response. ECOSSE predicted a decline in net C sink and shift to net C source by the end of this century. The Durham Carbon Model predicted a smaller decline in the net C sink strength, but no shift to net C source. MILLENNIA predicted a slight overall increase in the net C sink. In contrast to the BCEM projections, the DMs predicted that the sites with coolest temperatures and greatest total annual precipitation showed the largest change in carbon sinks. In this model inter-comparison, the greatest variation in model output in response to climate change projections was not between the BCEMs and DMs but between the DMs themselves, because of different approaches to modelling soil organic matter pools and decomposition amongst other processes. The difference in the sign of the response has major implications for future climate feedbacks, climate policy and peatland management. Enhanced data collection, in particular monitoring peatland response to current change, would significantly improve model development and projections of future change.

Global climate change and soil carbon stocks: predictions from two contrasting models for the turnover of organic carbon in soil

Enhanced release of CO2 to the atmosphere from soil organic carbon as a result of increased temperatures may lead to a positive feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, resulting in much higher CO2 levels and accelerated lobal warming. However, the magnitude of this effect is uncertain and critically dependent on how the decomposition of soil organic C (heterotrophic respiration) responds to changes in climate. Previous studies with the Hadley Centre’s coupled climate–carbon cycle general circulation model (GCM) (HadCM3LC) used a simple, single-pool soil carbon model to simulate the response. Here we present results from numerical simulations that use the more sophisticated ‘RothC’ multipool soil carbon model, driven with the same climate data. The results show strong similarities in the behaviour of the two models, although RothC tends to simulate slightly smaller changes in global soil carbon stocks for the same forcing. RothC simulates global soil carbon stocks decreasing by 54 GtC by 2100 in a climate change simulation compared with an 80 GtC decrease in HadCM3LC. The multipool carbon dynamics of RothC cause it to exhibit a slower magnitude of transient response to both increased organic carbon inputs and changes in climate. We conclude that the projection of a positive feedback between climate and carbon cycle is robust, but the magnitude of the feedback is dependent on the structure of the soil carbon model.

Modeling the plant uptake of organic chemicals, including the soil-air-plant pathway

The soil−air−plant pathway is potentially important in the vegetative accumulation of organic pollutants from contaminated soils. While a number of qualitative frameworks exist for the prediction of plant accumulation of organic chemicals by this pathway, there are few quantitative models that incorporate this pathway. The aim of the present study was to produce a model that included this pathway and could quantify its contribution to the total plant contamination for a range of organic pollutants. A new model was developed from three submodels for the processes controlling plant contamination via this pathway: aerial deposition, soil volatilization, and systemic translocation. Using the combined model, the soil−air−plant pathway was predicted to account for a significant proportion of the total shoot contamination for those compounds with log KOA > 9 and log KAW < −3. For those pollutants with log KOA < 9 and log KAW > −3 there was a higher deposition of pollutant via the soil−air−plant pathway than for those chemicals with log KOA > 9 and log KAW < −3, but this was an insignificant proportion of the total shoot contamination because of the higher mobility of these compounds via the soil−root−shoot pathway. The incorporation of the soil−air−plant pathway into the plant uptake model did not significantly improve the prediction of the contamination of vegetation from polluted soils when compared across a range of studies. This was a result of the high variability between the experimental studies where the bioconcentration factors varied by 2 orders of magnitude at an equivalent log KOA. One potential reason for this is the background air concentration of the pollutants under study. It was found background air concentrations would dominate those from soil volatilization in many situations unless there was a soil hot spot of contamination, i.e., >100 mg kg−1.

Chemical ageing and transformation of diffusivity in semi-solid multi-component organic aerosol particles

Recent experimental evidence underlines the importance of reduced diffusivity in amorphous semi-solid or glassy atmospheric aerosols. This paper investigates the impact of diffusivity on the ageing of multi-component reactive organic particles representative of atmospheric cooking aerosols. We apply and extend the recently developed KM-SUB model in a study of a 12-component mixture containing oleic and palmitoleic acids. We demonstrate that changes in the diffusivity may explain the evolution of chemical loss rates in ageing semi-solid particles, and we resolve surface and bulk processes under transient reaction conditions considering diffusivities altered by oligomerisation. This new model treatment allows prediction of the ageing of mixed organic multi-component aerosols over atmospherically relevant time scales and conditions. We illustrate the impact of changing diffusivity on the chemical half-life of reactive components in semisolid particles, and we demonstrate how solidification and crust formation at the particle surface can affect the chemical transformation of organic aerosols.

Chemical ageing and transformation of diffusivity in semi-solid multi-component organic aerosol particles

Recent experimental evidence underlines the importance of reduced diffusivity in amorphous semi-solid or glassy atmospheric aerosols. This paper investigates the impact of diffusivity on the ageing of multi-component reactive organic particles approximating atmospheric cooking aerosols. We apply and extend the recently developed KMSUB model in a study of a 12-component mixture containing oleic and palmitoleic acids. We demonstrate that changes in the diffusivity may explain the evolution of chemical loss rates in ageing semi-solid particles, and we resolve surface and bulk processes under transient reaction conditions considering diffusivities altered by oligomerisation. This new model treatment allows prediction of the ageing of mixed organic multi-component aerosols over atmospherically relevant timescales and conditions. We illustrate the impact of changing diffusivity on the chemical half-life of reactive components in semi-solid particles, and we demonstrate how solidification and crust formation at the particle surface can affect the chemical transformation of organic aerosols.

Kinetic multi-layer model of gas-particle interactions in aerosols and clouds (KM-GAP): linking condensation, evaporation and chemical reactions of organics, oxidants and water

We present a novel kinetic multi-layer model for gas-particle interactions in aerosols and clouds (KM-GAP) that treats explicitly all steps of mass transport and chemical reaction of semi-volatile species partitioning between gas phase, particle surface and particle bulk. KM-GAP is based on the PRA model framework (Pöschl-Rudich-Ammann, 2007), and it includes gas phase diffusion, reversible adsorption, surface reactions, bulk diffusion and reaction, as well as condensation, evaporation and heat transfer. The size change of atmospheric particles and the temporal evolution and spatial profile of the concentration of individual chemical species can be modelled along with gas uptake and accommodation coefficients. Depending on the complexity of the investigated system, unlimited numbers of semi-volatile species, chemical reactions, and physical processes can be treated, and the model shall help to bridge gaps in the understanding and quantification of multiphase chemistry and microphysics in atmo- spheric aerosols and clouds. In this study we demonstrate how KM-GAP can be used to analyze, interpret and design experimental investigations of changes in particle size and chemical composition in response to condensation, evaporation, and chemical reaction. For the condensational growth of water droplets, our kinetic model results provide a direct link between laboratory observations and molecular dynamic simulations, confirming that the accommodation coefficient of water at 270 K is close to unity. Literature data on the evaporation of dioctyl phthalate as a function of particle size and time can be reproduced, and the model results suggest that changes in the experimental conditions like aerosol particle concentration and chamber geometry may influence the evaporation kinetics and can be optimized for eðcient probing of specific physical effects and parameters. With regard to oxidative aging of organic aerosol particles, we illustrate how the formation and evaporation of volatile reaction products like nonanal can cause a decrease in the size of oleic acid particles exposed to ozone.

Kinetic multi-layer model of gas-particle interactions in aerosols and clouds (KM-GAP): linking condensation, evaporation and chemical reactions of organics, oxidants and water

We present a novel kinetic multi-layer model for gas-particle interactions in aerosols and clouds (KMGAP) that treats explicitly all steps of mass transport and chemical reaction of semi-volatile species partitioning between gas phase, particle surface and particle bulk. KMGAP is based on the PRA model framework (P¨oschl-Rudich- Ammann, 2007), and it includes gas phase diffusion, reversible adsorption, surface reactions, bulk diffusion and reaction, as well as condensation, evaporation and heat transfer. The size change of atmospheric particles and the temporal evolution and spatial profile of the concentration of individual chemical species can be modeled along with gas uptake and accommodation coefficients. Depending on the complexity of the investigated system and the computational constraints, unlimited numbers of semi-volatile species, chemical reactions, and physical processes can be treated, and the model shall help to bridge gaps in the understanding and quantification of multiphase chemistry and microphysics in atmospheric aerosols and clouds. In this study we demonstrate how KM-GAP can be used to analyze, interpret and design experimental investigations of changes in particle size and chemical composition in response to condensation, evaporation, and chemical reaction. For the condensational growth of water droplets, our kinetic model results provide a direct link between laboratory observations and molecular dynamic simulations, confirming that the accommodation coefficient of water at 270K is close to unity (Winkler et al., 2006). Literature data on the evaporation of dioctyl phthalate as a function of particle size and time can be reproduced, and the model results suggest that changes in the experimental conditions like aerosol particle concentration and chamber geometry may influence the evaporation kinetics and can be optimized for efficient probing of specific physical effects and parameters. With regard to oxidative aging of organic aerosol particles, we illustrate how the formation and evaporation of volatile reaction products like nonanal can cause a decrease in the size of oleic acid particles exposed to ozone.

Sources of variation in the ampicillin-resistant Escherichia coli concentration in the feces of organic broiler chickens

Currently, there are limited published data for the population dynamics of antimicrobial-resistant commensal bacteria. This study was designed to evaluate both the proportions of the Escherichia coli populations that are resistant to ampicillin at the level of the individual chicken on commercial broiler farms and the feasibility of obtaining repeated measures of fecal E. coli concentrations. Short-term temporal variation in the concentration of fecal E. coli was investigated, and a preliminary assessment was made of potential factors involved in the shedding of high numbers of ampicillin-resistant E. coli by growing birds in the absence of the use of antimicrobial drugs. Multilevel linear regression modeling revealed that the largest component of random variation in log-transformed fecal E. coli concentrations was seen between sampling occasions for individual birds. The incorporation of fixed effects into the model demonstrated that the older, heavier birds in the study were significantly more likely (P = 0.0003) to shed higher numbers of ampicillin-resistant E. coli. This association between increasing weight and high shedding was not seen for the total fecal E. coli population (P = 0.71). This implies that, in the absence of the administration of antimicrobial drugs, the proportion of fecal E. coli that was resistant to ampicillin increased as the birds grew. This study has shown that it is possible to collect quantitative microbiological data on broiler farms and that such data could make valuable contributions to risk assessments concerning the transfer of resistant bacteria between animal and human populations.

How will organic carbon stocks in mineral soils evolve under future climate? Global projections using RothC for a range of climate change scenarios

We use a soil carbon (C) model (RothC), driven by a range of climate models for a range of climate scenarios to examine the impacts of future climate on global soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. The results suggest an overall global increase in SOC stocks by 2100 under all scenarios, but with a different extent of increase among the climate model and emissions scenarios. The impacts of projected land use changes are also simulated, but have relatively minor impacts at the global scale. Whether soils gain or lose SOC depends upon the balance between C inputs and decomposition. Changes in net primary production (NPP) change C inputs to the soil, whilst decomposition usually increases under warmer temperatures, but can also be slowed by decreased soil moisture. Underlying the global trend of increasing SOC under future climate is a complex pattern of regional SOC change. SOC losses are projected to occur in northern latitudes where higher SOC decomposition rates due to higher temperatures are not balanced by increased NPP, whereas in tropical regions, NPP increases override losses due to higher SOC decomposition. The spatial heterogeneity in the response of SOC to changing climate shows how delicately balanced the competing gain and loss processes are, with subtle changes in temperature, moisture, soil type and land use, interacting to determine whether SOC increases or decreases in the future. Our results suggest that we should stop looking for a single answer regarding whether SOC stocks will increase or decrease under future climate, since there is no single answer. Instead, we should focus on improving our prediction of the factors that determine the size and direction of change, and the land management practices that can be implemented to protect and enhance SOC stocks.

John Lewis Partnership lessons in logical incrementalism and organic growth: a case study and interview with the Chairman, Mr Charlie Mayfield

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how strategy is developed and implemented in an organisation with an unusual ownership model. Partnerships are not a prevalent form of ownership but as this case demonstrates they can be extremely effective. Furthermore this case demonstrates how logical incrementalism can be used to implement major strategic decisions. Design/methodology/approach – The paper draws on company documentary evidence and a semi-structured interview with Mr Charlie Mayfield, Chairman of John Lewis Partnership. A chairman has a helicopter view of business whose perspectives are rarely captured by strategy researchers. This case study offers an insight into strategic thinking of a chairman and chief executive of a successful company. Research limitations/implications – The case study and interview offer a unique insight into the rationale behind strategic decisions within a successful partnership that has grown organically in a highly competitive retail market without high gearing. Originality/value – This case study sheds light on strategic moves within partnership. Furthermore, very few case studies offer insight into the thinking of a chief executive who has successfully managed a business in a turbulent environment.