Nonlinear data assimilation in geosciences: an extremely efficient particle filter

Almost all research fields in geosciences use numerical models and observations and combine these using data-assimilation techniques. With ever-increasing resolution and complexity, the numerical models tend to be highly nonlinear and also observations become more complicated and their relation to the models more nonlinear. Standard data-assimilation techniques like (ensemble) Kalman filters and variational methods like 4D-Var rely on linearizations and are likely to fail in one way or another. Nonlinear data-assimilation techniques are available, but are only efficient for small-dimensional problems, hampered by the so-called ‘curse of dimensionality’. Here we present a fully nonlinear particle filter that can be applied to higher dimensional problems by exploiting the freedom of the proposal density inherent in particle filtering. The method is illustrated for the three-dimensional Lorenz model using three particles and the much more complex 40-dimensional Lorenz model using 20 particles. By also applying the method to the 1000-dimensional Lorenz model, again using only 20 particles, we demonstrate the strong scale-invariance of the method, leading to the optimistic conjecture that the method is applicable to realistic geophysical problems. Copyright c 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Non-D9-tetrahydrocannabinol phytocannabinoids stimulate feeding in rats

Cannabinoid type 1 receptor-mediated appetite stimulation by D9tetrahydrocannabinol (D9THC) is well understood. Recently, it has become apparent that non-D9THC phytocannabinoids could also alter feeding patterns. Here, we show definitively that non-D9THC phytocannabinoids stimulate feeding. Twelve male, Lister-Hooded rats were prefed to satiety prior to administration of a standardized cannabis extract or to either of two mixtures of pure phytocannabinoids (extract analogues) comprising the phytocannabinoids present in the same proportions as the standardized extract (one with and one without D9THC). Hourly intake and meal pattern data were recorded and analysed using two-way analysis of variance followed by one-way analysis of variance and Bonferroni post-hoc tests. Administration of both extract analogues significantly increased feeding behaviours over the period of the test. All three agents increased hour-one intake and meal-one size and decreased the latency to feed, although the zero-D9THC extract analogue did so to a lesser degree than the high-D9THC analogue. Furthermore, only the analogue containing D9THC significantly increased meal duration. The data confirm that at least one non-D9THC phytocannabinoid induces feeding pattern changes in rats, although further trials using individual phytocannabinoids are required to fully understand the observed effects.

Can REDD+ reconcile local priorities and needs with global mitigation benefits? lessons from Angai Forest, Tanzania

The scope of the reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) mechanism has broadened REDD+ to accommodate different country interests such as natural forests, protected areas, as well as forests under community-based management. In Tanzania the REDD+ mechanism is still under development and pilot projects are at an early stage. In this paper, we seek to understand how local priorities and needs could be met in REDD+ implementation and how these expectations match with global mitigation benefits. We examine the local priorities and needs in the use of land and forest resources in the Angai Villages Land Forest Reserve (AVLFR) in the Liwale District of Lindi Region in Tanzania. Primary data was collected in two villages, Mihumo and Lilombe, using semistructured key informant interviews and participatory rural appraisal methods. In addition, the key informant interviews were conducted with other village, district, and national level actors, as well as international donors. Findings show that in the two communities REDD+ is seen as something new and is generating new expectations among communities. However, the Angai villagers highlight three key priorities that have yet to be integrated into the design of REDD+: water scarcity, rural development, and food security. At the local level improved forest governance and sustainable management of forest resources have been identified as one way to achieve livelihood diversification. Although the national goals of REDD+ include poverty reduction, these goals are not necessarily conducive to the goals of these communities. There exist both structural and cultural limits to the ability of the Angai villages to implement these goals and to improve forestry governance. Given the vulnerability to current and future climate variability and change it will be important to consider how the AVLFR will be managed and for whose benefit?

Bridging a yawning chasm: EEG investigations into the debate concerning the role of the human mirror neuron system in contagious yawning

Ongoing debate in the literature concerns whether there is a link between contagious yawning and the human mirror neuron system (hMNS). One way of examining this issue is with the use of the electroencephalogram (EEG) to measure changes in mu activation during the observation of yawns. Mu oscillations are seen in the alpha bandwidth of the EEG (8–12 Hz) over sensorimotor areas. Previous work has shown that mu suppression is a useful index of hMNS activation and is sensitive to individual differences in empathy. In two experiments, we presented participants with videos of either people yawning or control stimuli. We found greater mu suppression for yawns than for controls over right motor and premotor areas, particularly for those scoring higher on traits of empathy. In a third experiment, auditory recordings of yawns were compared against electronically scrambled versions of the same yawns. We observed greater mu suppression for yawns than for the controls over right lateral premotor areas. Again, these findings were driven by those scoring highly on empathy. The results from these experiments support the notion that the hMNS is involved in contagious yawning, emphasise the link between contagious yawning and empathy, and stress the importance of good control stimuli.

Ventilation in a street canyon under diurnal heating conditions

To study the thermal effects on airflow in a street canyon under real heating conditions (due to diurnal solar radiation), a one-way static approach combining an urban canopy model and CFD is proposed in this paper. An urban canopy model was developed to calculate the individual temperatures of surfaces in the street canyon. The calculated surface temperature may be used as a thermal boundary for CFD simulation. The reliability of this model was validated against a field experiment in Harbin, China. Using the coupling calculation method, the wind flow and air exchange process inside an idealized street canyon was studied. The simulation results show that the thermal effect has significant impacts on the transfer process in the street canyon, especially when the approaching wind is weak. Under a real diurnal thermal forcing, the flow structure within the street canyon changes from one primary vortex to two counter-rotating vortices. The change of transfer process, induced by the buoyancy force, was determined by the thermal condition of all surfaces rather than a single one. Key words: thermal effect, street canyon, numerical simulation, transfer process, diurnal heating.

Towards a semiotic approach to practice-oriented knowledge transfer

With the rapid growth of information and technology, knowledge is a valuable asset in organisation which has become significant as a strategic resource. Many studies have focused on managing knowledge in organisations. In particular, knowledge transfer has become a significant issue concerned with the movement of knowledge across organisational boundaries. It enables the exploitation and application of existing knowledge for other organisations, reducing the time of creating knowledge, and minimising the cost of organisational learning. One way to capture knowledge in a transferrable form is through practice. In this paper, we discuss how organisations can transfer knowledge through practice effectively and propose a model for a semiotic approach to practice-oriented knowledge transfer. In this model, practice is treated as a sign that represents knowledge, and its localisation is analysed as a semiotic process.

Semiotic approach to a practice-oriented knowledge transfer

Knowledge is a valuable asset in organisations that has become significant as a strategic resource in the information age. Many studies have focused on managing knowledge in organisations. In particular, knowledge transfer has become a significant issue concerned with the movement of knowledge across organisational boundaries. One way to capture knowledge in a transferrable form is through practice. In this paper, we discuss how organisations can transfer knowledge through practice effectively and propose a model for a semiotic approach to practice-oriented knowledge transfer. In this model, practice is treated as a sign that represents knowledge, and its localisation is analysed as a semiotic process.

Portfolio-Werbung als Technik des Impression Management: Eine Untersuchung zur gegenseitigen Stärkung von Dachmarke und Produktmarken in komplexen Markenarchitekturen

In recent years, the importance of the corporate brand (e.g. P&G, Nestlé, Unilever) has grown significantly and companies increasingly strive to strengthen their corporate brand. One way to strengthen the corporate brand is portfolio advertisement, in which the corporate brand is presented alongside with several product brands of its portfolio (e.g. VW with its product brands Touareg, Touran, Golf and Polo). The aim of portfolio advertising is to generate a positive image spill-over effect from the product brands onto the corporate brand in order to enhance the consumers’ perceived competence of the corporate brand. In four experimental settings Christian Boris Brunner demonstrates the great potential of portfolio advertising and highlights the risks associated with portfolio advertising in practice. In a first experiment, he compares portfolio advertising with single brand advertisements. Moreover, in case of portfolio advertising he manipulates the fit between the product brands, because the consumer has to establish a logical coherence between the individual brands. However, asconsumers have limited capacity for processing information, special attention should be paid to the number of product brands and to the processing depth of the consumer during confrontation with portfolio advertising. These key factors are taken into consideration in a second extensive experiment involving fictitious corporate and product brands. The effects of portfolio advertising on a product brand are also examined. Furthermore, the strength of product brands, i.e. brand knowledge as well as brand image and consumer’s knowledge of the brands, must be taken into consideration. In a third experiment, both the brand strength of real product brands as well as the fit between product brands are manipulated. Portfolio advertising could also have a positive image spill-over effect when companies introduce a new product brand under the umbrella of the corporate brand while communicating all product brands together. Based on considerations, in a fourth experiment, Christian Boris Brunner shows that portfolio advertising could also have a positive image spill-over effect on a new (unknown) product brand. Concluding his work, Christian Boris Brunner provides implications for future research concerning portfolio advertising as well as the management of a corporate brand in complex brand architectures. Concerning practical implications, these four experiments underline a high relevance to marketing and brand managers, who could increase corporate and product brands’ potential by means of portfolio advertising.

A conceptual framework of patient satisfaction with a pharmacy adherence service

Background Patients do not adhere to their medicines for a host of reasons which can include their underlying beliefs as well as the quality of their interactions with healthcare professionals. One way of measuring the outcome of pharmacy adherence services is to assess patient satisfaction but no questionnaire exists that truly captures patients' experiences with these relatively new services. Objective Our objective was to develop a conceptual framework specific to patient satisfaction with a community pharmacy adherence service based on criteria used by patients themselves. Setting The study was based in community pharmacies in one large geographical area of the UK (Surrey). All the work was conducted between October 2008 and September 2010. Methods This study involved qualitative non-participant observation and semi-structured interviewing. We observed the recruitment of patients to the Medicines Use Review (MUR) service and also actual MUR consultations (7). We also interviewed patients (15). Data collection continued until no new themes were identified during analysis. We analysed interviews to firstly create a comprehensive account of themes which had significance within the transcripts, then created sub-themes within super-ordinate categories. We used a structure-process-outcome approach to develop a conceptual framework relating to patient satisfaction with the MUR. Favourable ethical opinion for this study was received from the NHS Surrey Research Ethics Committee on 2nd June 2008. Results Five super-ordinate themes linked to patient satisfaction with the MUR service were identified, including relationships with healthcare providers; attitudes towards healthcare providers; patients' experience of health, healthcare and medicines; patients' views of the MUR service; the logistics of the MUR service. In the conceptual framework, structure was conceptualised as existing relationships, environment, and time; process was conceptualised as related to recruitment and consultation stages; and outcome as two concepts of immediate patient outcomes and satisfaction on reflection. Conclusion We identified and highlighted factors that can influence patient satisfaction with the MUR service and this led to the development of a conceptual framework of patient satisfaction with the MUR service. This can form the basis for developing a questionnaire for measuring patient satisfaction with this and similar pharmacy adherence services. Impact of findings on practice * Pharmacists and researchers can access the relevant ideas presented here in relation to patient satisfaction with pharmacy adherence services. * Researcher can use the conceptual framework as a basis for measuring the quality of pharmacy adherence services. * Community pharmacists can improve the quality of healthcare they provide by realizing concepts relevant to patient satisfaction with adherence services.

A Kind of Integrity: explorations in history and drama

All of our knowledge of history is mediated in one way or another. Even the experience of first hand witnesses are, it may be argued, subject to semiotic influences such as physical and emotional position, attitudinal point of view and accuracy of recall. A great deal of historical knowledge is acquired through dramatised versions of historical events. As the characters who actually took part in historical events become the dramatis personae of re-enacted accounts, their stories are edited not only to meet dramatic necessities but the social, psychological and cultural needs of both storytellers and audience. The process of popularising history in this way thus becomes as much about the effects of events on people as the events themselves. This chapter describes and analyses the way in which four historical events have formed the basis of school based drama workshops that explore this process. The Player in Tom Stoppard’s ‘Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead’ posits that actors do on stage what others are supposed to do off, which, he claims, ‘is a kind of integrity.’ The chapter discusses how drama may be used to explore not only stories from history but how those stories may be mediated and so become open to multiple interpretations. The process of dramatising events from history provides opportunities to develop and exercise a critical literacy that is concerned not so much with either fact or empathy as with interrogating both why and how stories are told. Thus, the experience of exploring the symbiotic relationship between drama and history is dependent on an internal logic which may indeed be perceived as a kind of integrity.

Review: the predictability of the extra-tropical stratosphere on monthly timescales and its impact on the skill of tropospheric forecasts

Extreme variability of the winter- and spring-time stratospheric polar vortex has been shown to affect extratropical tropospheric weather. Therefore, reducing stratospheric forecast error may be one way to improve the skill of tropospheric weather forecasts. In this review, the basis for this idea is examined. A range of studies of different stratospheric extreme vortex events shows that they can be skilfully forecasted beyond five days and into the sub-seasonal range (0-30 days) in some cases. Separate studies show that typical errors in forecasting a stratospheric extreme vortex event can alter tropospheric forecasts skill by 5-7% in the extratropics on sub-seasonal timescales. Thus understanding what limits stratospheric predictability is of significant interest to operational forecasting centres. Both limitations in forecasting tropospheric planetary waves and stratospheric model biases have been shown to be important in this context.

Atmospheric electric fields during the Carrington flare

Karen Aplin and Giles Harrison examine international records of the 1859 Carrington flare and consider what they mean for our understanding of space weather today. Space weather is increasingly recognized as a hazard to modern societies, and one way to assess the extent of its possible impact is through analysis of historic space weather events. One such event was the massive solar storm of late August and early September 1859. This is now widely known as the “Carrington flare” or “Carrington event” after the visual solar emissions on 1 September first reported by the Victorian astronomer Richard Carrington from his observatory in Redhill, Surrey (Carrington 1859). The related aurorae and subsequent effects on telegraph networks are well documented (e.g. Clark 2007, Boteler 2006), but use of modern techniques, such as analysis of nitrates produced by solar protons in ice cores to retrospectively assess the nature of the solar flare, has proved problematic (Wolff et al. 2012). This means that there is still very little quantitative information about the flare beyond magnetic observations (e.g. Viljanen et al. 2014).

Investigating preferences for dynamic electricity tariffs: the effect of environmental and system benefit disclosure

Dynamic electricity pricing can produce efficiency gains in the electricity sector and help achieve energy policy goals such as increasing electric system reliability and supporting renewable energy deployment. Retail electric companies can offer dynamic pricing to residential electricity customers via smart meter-enabled tariffs that proxy the cost to procure electricity on the wholesale market. Current investments in the smart metering necessary to implement dynamic tariffs show policy makers’ resolve for enabling responsive demand and realizing its benefits. However, despite these benefits and the potential bill savings these tariffs can offer, adoption among residential customers remains at low levels. Using a choice experiment approach, this paper seeks to determine whether disclosing the environmental and system benefits of dynamic tariffs to residential customers can increase adoption. Although sampling and design issues preclude wide generalization, we found that our environmentally conscious respondents reduced their required discount to switch to dynamic tariffs around 10% in response to higher awareness of environmental and system benefits. The perception that shifting usage is easy to do also had a significant impact, indicating the potential importance of enabling technology. Perhaps the targeted communication strategy employed by this study is one way to increase adoption and achieve policy goals.

Roles of the non-medical prescribing leads within organisations across a Strategic Health Authority: perceived functions and factors supporting the role

Objectives Extending the roles of nurses, pharmacists and allied health professionals to include prescribing has been identified as one way of improving service provision. In the UK, over 50 000 non-medical healthcare professionals are now qualified to prescribe. Implementation of non-medical prescribing ( NMP) is crucial to realise the potential return on investment. The UK Department of Health recommends a NMP lead to be responsible for the implementation of NMP within organisations. The aim of this study was to explore the role of NMP leads in organisations across one Strategic Health Authority (SHA) and to inform future planning with regards to the criteria for those adopting this role, the scope of the role and factors enabling the successful execution of the role. Methods Thirty-nine NMP leads across one SHA were approached. Semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted. Issues explored included the perceived role of the NMP lead, safety and clinical governance procedures and facilitators to the role. Transcribed audiotapes were coded and analysed using thematic analytical techniques. Key findings In total, 27/39 (69.2%) NMP leads were interviewed. The findings highlight the key role that the NMP lead plays with regards to the support and development of NMP within National Health Service trusts. Processes used to appoint NMP leads lacked clarity and varied between trusts. Only two NMP leads had designated or protected time for their role. Strategic influence, operational management and clinical governance were identified as key functions. Factors that supported the role included organisational support, level of influence and dedicated time. Conclusion The NMP lead plays a significant role in the development and implementation of NMP. Clear national guidance is needed with regards to the functions of this role, the necessary attributes for individuals recruited into this post and the time that should be designated to it. This is important as prescribing is extended to include other groups of non-medical healthcare professionals.

Shared parenting, law and policy: considering power within the framework of autopoietic theory

This paper uses the last few decades’ developments in the area of shared parenting to explore power within the framework of autopoietic theory. It traces how, prompted by turbulence from the political subsystem, family law has made several unsuccessful attempts to solve the perceived problem of post-separation dual-household parenting. It agrees with Luhmann and Teubner that closed autopoietic systems’ developments are limited by their normative and cognitive frameworks, and also argues that changes, which have occurred in family law, show that closed social systems do not function in total isolation. It considers power as ego’s ability to limit alter’s choices. In our functionally differentiated society, with its recent proliferation of communication, power appears more diffuse and impossible to plot into causal one-way relationships.