Managing invasive alien species with professional and hobby farmers: insights from ecological-economic modelling

Biosecurity is a great challenge to policy-makers globally. Biosecurity policies aim to either prevent invasions before they occur or to eradicate and/or effectively manage the invasive species and diseases once an invasion has occurred. Such policies have traditionally been directed towards professional producers in natural resource based sectors, including agriculture. Given the wide scope of issues threatened by invasive species and diseases, it is important to account for several types of stakeholders that are involved. We investigate the problem of an invasive insect pest feeding on an agricultural crop with heterogeneous producers: profit-oriented professional farmers and utility-oriented hobby farmers. We start from an ecological-economic model conceptually similar to the one developed by Eiswerth and Johnson [Eiswerth, M.E. and Johnson, W.S., 2002. Managing nonindigenous invasive species: insights from dynamic analysis. Environmental and Resource Economics 23, 319-342.] and extend it in three ways. First, we make explicit the relationship between the invaded state carrying capacity and farmers' planting decisions. Second, we add another producer type into the framework and hence account for the existence of both professional and hobby fanners. Third, we provide a theoretical contribution by discussing two alternative types of equilibria. We also apply the model to an empirical case to extract a number of stylised facts and in particular to assess: a) under which circumstances the invasion is likely to be not controllable; and b) how extending control policies to hobby farmers could affect both types of producers. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trophic interactions in a changing world: modelling aboveground-belowground interactions

The rate and scale of human-driven changes can exert profound impacts on ecosystems, the species that make them up and the services they provide that sustain humanity. Given the speed at which these changes are occurring, one of society's major challenges is to coexist within ecosystems and to manage ecosystem services in a sustainable way. The effect of possible scenarios of global change on ecosystem services can be explored using ecosystem models. Such models should adequately represent ecosystem processes above and below the soil surface (aboveground and belowground) and the interactions between them. We explore possibilities to include such interactions into ecosystem models at scales that range from global to local. At the regional to global scale we suggest to expand the plant functional type concept (aggregating plants into groups according to their physiological attributes) to include functional types of aboveground-belowground interactions. At the scale of discrete plant communities, process-based and organism-oriented models could be combined into "hybrid approaches" that include organism-oriented mechanistic representation of a limited number of trophic interactions in an otherwise process - oriented approach. Under global change the density and activity of organisms determining the processes may change non-linearly and therefore explicit knowledge of the organisms and their responses should ideally be included. At the individual plant scale a common organism-based conceptual model of aboveground-belowground interactions has emerged. This conceptual model facilitates the formulation of research questions to guide experiments aiming to identify patterns that are common within, but differ between, ecosystem types and biomes. Such experiments inform modelling approaches at larger scales. Future ecosystem models should better include this evolving knowledge of common patterns of aboveground-belowground interactions. Improved ecosystem models are necessary toots to reduce the uncertainty in the information that assists us in the sustainable management of our environment in a changing world. (C) 2004 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Generic unified modelling process for developing semantically rich, dynamic and temporal models

Models play a vital role in supporting a range of activities in numerous domains. We rely on models to support the design, visualisation, analysis and representation of parts of the world around us, and as such significant research effort has been invested into numerous areas of modelling; including support for model semantics, dynamic states and behaviour, temporal data storage and visualisation. Whilst these efforts have increased our capabilities and allowed us to create increasingly powerful software-based models, the process of developing models, supporting tools and /or data structures remains difficult, expensive and error-prone. In this paper we define from literature the key factors in assessing a model’s quality and usefulness: semantic richness, support for dynamic states and object behaviour, temporal data storage and visualisation. We also identify a number of shortcomings in both existing modelling standards and model development processes and propose a unified generic process to guide users through the development of semantically rich, dynamic and temporal models.

Modelling the reorientation of sea-ice faults as the wind changes direction

A discrete-element model of sea ice is used to study how a 90° change in wind direction alters the pattern of faults generated through mechanical failure of the ice. The sea-ice domain is 400km in size and consists of polygonal floes obtained through a Voronoi tessellation. Initially the floes are frozen together through viscous–elastic joints that can break under sufficient compressive, tensile and shear deformation. A constant wind-stress gradient is applied until the initially frozen ice pack is broken into roughly diamond-shaped aggregates, with crack angles determined by wing-crack formation. Then partial refreezing of the cracks delineating the aggregates is modelled through reduction of their length by a particular fraction, the ice pack deformation is neglected and the wind stress is rotated by 90°. New cracks form, delineating aggregates with a different orientation. Our results show the new crack orientation depends on the refrozen fraction of the initial faults: as this fraction increases, the new cracks gradually rotate to the new wind direction, reaching 90° for fully refrozen faults. Such reorientation is determined by a competition between new cracks forming at a preferential angle determined by the wing-crack theory and at old cracks oriented at a less favourable angle but having higher stresses due to shorter contacts across the joints