Uses of airborne scanning laser altimetry for river flood modelling and coastal geomorphology

Two ongoing projects at ESSC that involve the development of new techniques for extracting information from airborne LiDAR data and combining this information with environmental models will be discussed. The first project in conjunction with Bristol University is aiming to improve 2-D river flood flow models by using remote sensing to provide distributed data for model calibration and validation. Airborne LiDAR can provide such models with a dense and accurate floodplain topography together with vegetation heights for parameterisation of model friction. The vegetation height data can be used to specify a friction factor at each node of a model’s finite element mesh. A LiDAR range image segmenter has been developed which converts a LiDAR image into separate raster maps of surface topography and vegetation height for use in the model. Satellite and airborne SAR data have been used to measure flood extent remotely in order to validate the modelled flood extent. Methods have also been developed for improving the models by decomposing the model’s finite element mesh to reflect floodplain features such as hedges and trees having different frictional properties to their surroundings. Originally developed for rural floodplains, the segmenter is currently being extended to provide DEMs and friction parameter maps for urban floods, by fusing the LiDAR data with digital map data. The second project is concerned with the extraction of tidal channel networks from LiDAR. These networks are important features of the inter-tidal zone, and play a key role in tidal propagation and in the evolution of salt-marshes and tidal flats. The study of their morphology is currently an active area of research, and a number of theories related to networks have been developed which require validation using dense and extensive observations of network forms and cross-sections. The conventional method of measuring networks is cumbersome and subjective, involving manual digitisation of aerial photographs in conjunction with field measurement of channel depths and widths for selected parts of the network. A semi-automatic technique has been developed to extract networks from LiDAR data of the inter-tidal zone. A multi-level knowledge-based approach has been implemented, whereby low level algorithms first extract channel fragments based mainly on image properties then a high level processing stage improves the network using domain knowledge. The approach adopted at low level uses multi-scale edge detection to detect channel edges, then associates adjacent anti-parallel edges together to form channels. The higher level processing includes a channel repair mechanism.

Global hydrology modelling and uncertainty: running multiple ensembles with a campus grid.

Uncertainties associated with the representation of various physical processes in global climate models (GCMs) mean that, when projections from GCMs are used in climate change impact studies, the uncertainty propagates through to the impact estimates. A complete treatment of this ‘climate model structural uncertainty’ is necessary so that decision-makers are presented with an uncertainty range around the impact estimates. This uncertainty is often underexplored owing to the human and computer processing time required to perform the numerous simulations. Here, we present a 189-member ensemble of global river runoff and water resource stress simulations that adequately address this uncertainty. Following several adaptations and modifications, the ensemble creation time has been reduced from 750 h on a typical single-processor personal computer to 9 h of high-throughput computing on the University of Reading Campus Grid. Here, we outline the changes that had to be made to the hydrological impacts model and to the Campus Grid, and present the main results. We show that, although there is considerable uncertainty in both the magnitude and the sign of regional runoff changes across different GCMs with climate change, there is much less uncertainty in runoff changes for regions that experience large runoff increases (e.g. the high northern latitudes and Central Asia) and large runoff decreases (e.g. the Mediterranean). Furthermore, there is consensus that the percentage of the global population at risk to water resource stress will increase with climate change.

Northern hemisphere snow: measurement, modelling and predictability

Northern hemisphere snow water equivalent (SWE) distribution from remote sensing (SSM/I), the ERA40 reanalysis product and the HadCM3 general circulation model are compared. Large differences are seen in the February climatologies, particularly over Siberia. The SSM/I retrieval algorithm may be overestimating SWE in this region, while comparison with independent runoff estimates suggest that HadCM3 is underestimating SWE. Treatment of snow grain size and vegetation parameterizations are concerns with the remotely sensed data. For this reason, ERA40 is used as `truth' for the following experiments. Despite the climatology differences, HadCM3 is able to reproduce the distribution of ERA40 SWE anomalies when assimilating ERA40 anomaly fields of temperature, sea level pressure, atmospheric winds and ocean temperature and salinity. However when forecasts are released from these assimilated initial states, the SWE anomaly distribution diverges rapidly from that of ERA40. No predictability is seen from one season to another. Strong links between European SWE distribution and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are seen, but forecasts of this index by the assimilation scheme are poor. Longer term relationships between SWE and the NAO, and SWE and the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are also investigated in a multi-century run of HadCM3. SWE is impacted by ENSO in the Himalayas and North America, while the NAO affects SWE in North America and Europe. While significant connections with the NAO index were only present in DJF (and to an extent SON), the link between ENSO and February SWE distribution was seen to exist from the previous JJA ENSO index onwards. This represents a long lead time for SWE prediction for hydrological applications such as flood and wildfire forecasting. Further work is required to develop reliable large scale observation-based SWE datasets with which to test these model-derived connections.

Did pterosaurs feed by skimming? Physical modelling and anatomical evaluation of an unusual feeding method

Similarities between the anatomies of living organisms are often used to draw conclusions regarding the ecology and behaviour of extinct animals. Several pterosaur taxa are postulated to have been skim-feeders based largely on supposed convergences of their jaw anatomy with that of the modern skimming bird, Rynchops spp. Using physical and mathematical models of Rynchops bills and pterosaur jaws, we show that skimming is considerably more energetically costly than previously thought for Rynchops and that pterosaurs weighing more than one kilogram would not have been able to skim at all. Furthermore, anatomical comparisons between the highly specialised skull of Rynchops and those of postulated skimming pterosaurs suggest that even smaller forms were poorly adapted for skim-feeding. Our results refute the hypothesis that some pterosaurs commonly used skimming as a foraging method and illustrate the pitfalls involved in extrapolating from limited morphological convergence.

Computer modelling and estimation of recruitment patterns of non-branching coral colonies at three sites in Wakatobi Marine Park, S.E. Sulawesi, Indonesia; implications for coral reef conservation

We have studied growth and estimated recruitment of massive coral colonies at three sites, Kaledupa, Hoga and Sampela, separated by about 1.5 km in the Wakatobi Marine National Park, S.E. Sulawesi, Indonesia. There was significantly higher species richness (P<0.05), coral cover (P<0.05) and rugosity (P<0.01) at Kaledupa than at Sampela. A model for coral reef growth has been developed based on a rational polynomial function, where dx/dt is an index of coral growth with time; W is the variable (for example, coral weight, coral length or coral area), up to the power of n in the numerator and m in the denominator; a1……an and b1…bm are constants. The values for n and m represent the degree of the polynomial, and can relate to the morphology of the coral. The model was used to simulate typical coral growth curves, and tested using published data obtained by weighing coral colonies underwater in reefs on the south-west coast of Curaçao [‘Neth. J. Sea Res. 10 (1976) 285’]. The model proved an accurate fit to the data, and parameters were obtained for a number of coral species. Surface area data was obtained on over 1200 massive corals at three different sites in the Wakatobi Marine National Park, S.E. Sulawesi, Indonesia. The year of an individual's recruitment was calculated from knowledge of the growth rate modified by application of the rational polynomial model. The estimated pattern of recruitment was variable, with little numbers of massive corals settling and growing before 1950 at the heavily used site, Sampela, relative to the reef site with little or no human use, Kaledupa, and the intermediate site, Hoga. There was a significantly greater sedimentation rate at Sampela than at either Kaledupa (P<0.0001) or Hoga (P<0.0005). The relative mean abundance of fish families present at the reef crests at the three sites, determined using digital video photography, did not correlate with sedimentation rates, underwater visibility or lack of large non-branching coral colonies. Radial growth rates of three genera of non-branching corals were significantly lower at Sampela than at Kaledupa or at Hoga, and there was a high correlation (r=0.89) between radial growth rates and underwater visibility. Porites spp. was the most abundant coral over all the sites and at all depths followed by Favites (P<0.04) and Favia spp. (P<0.03). Colony ages of Porites corals were significantly lower at the 5 m reef flat on the Sampela reef than at the same depth on both other reefs (P<0.005). At Sampela, only 2.8% of corals on the 5 m reef crest are of a size to have survived from before 1950. The Scleractinian coral community of Sampela is severely impacted by depositing sediments which can lead to the suffocation of corals, whilst also decreasing light penetration resulting in decreased growth and calcification rates. The net loss of material from Sampela, if not checked, could result in the loss of this protective barrier which would be to the detriment of the sublittoral sand flats and hence the Sampela village.

Gas phase kinetic and quantum chemical studies of the reactions of silylene with the methylsilanes. Absolute rate constants, temperature dependences, RRKM modelling and potential energy surfaces

Time resolved studies of silylene, SiH2, generated by the 193 nm laser. ash photolysis of phenylsilane, have been carried out to obtain rate coefficients for its bimolecular reactions with methyl-, dimethyl- and trimethyl-silanes in the gas phase. The reactions were studied over the pressure range 3 - 100 Torr with SF6 as bath gas and at five temperatures in the range 300 - 625 K. Only slight pressure dependences were found for SiH2 + MeSiH3 ( 485 and 602 K) and for SiH2 + Me2SiH2 ( 600 K). The high pressure rate constants gave the following Arrhenius parameters: [GRAPHICS] These are consistent with fast, near to collision-controlled, association processes. RRKM modelling calculations are consistent with the observed pressure dependences ( and also the lack of them for SiH2 + Me3SiH). Ab initio calculations at both second order perturbation theory (MP2) and coupled cluster (CCSD(T)) levels, showed the presence of weakly-bound complexes along the reaction pathways. In the case of SiH2 + MeSiH3 two complexes, with different geometries, were obtained consistent with earlier studies of SiH2 + SiH4. These complexes were stabilised by methyl substitution in the substrate silane, but all had exceedingly low barriers to rearrangement to product disilanes. Although methyl groups in the substrate silane enhance the intrinsic SiH2 insertion rates, it is doubtful whether the intermediate complexes have a significant effect on the kinetics. A further calculation on the reaction MeSiH + SiH4 shows that the methyl substitution in the silylene should have a much more significant kinetic effect ( as observed in other studies).

Solid phases of cyclopentane: combined experimental and simulation study

The phase diagram of cyclopentane has been studied by powder neutron diffraction, providing diffraction patterns for phases I, II, and III, over a range of temperatures and pressures. The putative phase IV was not observed. The structure of the ordered phase III has been solved by single-crystal diffraction. Computational modeling reveals that there are many equienergetic ordered structures for cyclopentane within a small energy range. Molecular dynamics simulations reproduce the structures and diffraction patterns for phases I and III and also show an intermediate disordered phase, which is used to interpret phase II.

Design, testing, and simulation of fibre composite leaf springs for heavy axle loads

This paper summarizes the design, manufacturing, testing, and finite element analysis (FEA) of glass-fibre-reinforced polyester leaf springs for rail freight vehicles. FEA predictions of load-deflection curves under static loading are presented, together with comparisons with test results. Bending stress distribution at typical load conditions is plotted for the springs. The springs have been mounted on a real wagon and drop tests at tare and full load have been carried out on a purpose-built shaker rig. The transient response of the springs from tests and FEA is presented and discussed.

Did pterosaurs feed by skimming? Physical modelling and anatomical evaluation of an unusual feeding method

Similarities between the anatomies of living organisms are often used to draw conclusions regarding the ecology and behaviour of extinct animals. Several pterosaur taxa are postulated to have been skim-feeders based largely on supposed convergences of their jaw anatomy with that of the modern skimming bird, Rynchops spp. Using physical and mathematical models of Rynchops bills and pterosaur jaws, we show that skimming is considerably more energetically costly than previously thought for Rynchops and that pterosaurs weighing more than one kilogram would not have been able to skim at all. Furthermore, anatomical comparisons between the highly specialised skull of Rynchops and those of postulated skimming pterosaurs suggest that even smaller forms were poorly adapted for skim-feeding. Our results refute the hypothesis that some pterosaurs commonly used skimming as a foraging method and illustrate the pitfalls involved in extrapolating from limited morphological convergence.

Techno-economic modelling and cost functions of CO2 capture processes

The paper presents the techno-economic modelling of CO2 capture process in coal-fired power plants. An overall model is being developed to compare carbon capture and sequestration options at locations within the UK, and for studies of the sensitivity of the cost of disposal to changes in the major parameters of the most promising solutions identified. Technological options of CO2 capture have been studied and cost estimation relationships (CERs) for the chosen options calculated. Created models are related to the capital, operation and maintenance cost. A total annualised cost of plant electricity output and amount of CO2 avoided have been developed. The influence of interest rates and plant life has been analysed as well. The CERs are included as an integral part of the overall model.

Modelling and validation of Lactobacillus plantarum fermentations in cereal-based media with different sugar concentrations and buffering capacities

An unstructured mathematical model is proposed to describe the fermentation kinetics of growth, lactic acid production, pH and sugar consumption by Lactobacillus plantarum as a function of the buffering capacity and initial glucose concentration of the culture media. Initially the experimental data of L plantarum fermentations in synthetic media with different buffering capacity and glucose were fitted to a set of primary models. Later the parameters obtained from these models were used to establish mathematical relationships with the independent variables tested. The models were validated with 6 fermentations of L. plantarum in different cereal-based media. In most cases the proposed models adequately describe the biochemical changes taking place during fermentation and are a promising approach for the formulation of cereal-based probiotic foods. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.