A new method for the characterisation and verification of local spatial predictability for convective scale ensembles

The use of kilometre-scale ensembles in operational forecasting provides new challenges for forecast interpretation and evaluation to account for uncertainty on the convective scale. A new neighbourhood based method is presented for evaluating and characterising the local predictability variations from convective scale ensembles. Spatial scales over which ensemble forecasts agree (agreement scales, S^A) are calculated at each grid point ij, providing a map of the spatial agreement between forecasts. By comparing the average agreement scale obtained from ensemble member pairs (S^A(mm)_ij), with that between members and radar observations (S^A(mo)_ij), this approach allows the location-dependent spatial spread-skill relationship of the ensemble to be assessed. The properties of the agreement scales are demonstrated using an idealised experiment. To demonstrate the methods in an operational context the S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij are calculated for six convective cases run with the Met Office UK Ensemble Prediction System. The S^A(mm)_ij highlight predictability differences between cases, which can be linked to physical processes. Maps of S^A(mm)_ij are found to summarise the spatial predictability in a compact and physically meaningful manner that is useful for forecasting and for model interpretation. Comparison of S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij demonstrates the case-by-case and temporal variability of the spatial spread-skill, which can again be linked to physical processes.

Edible oil from Tiger nut (Cyperus esculentus L.): mechanical pressing and aqueous enzymatic extraction methods

The tiger nut tuber of the Cyperus esculentus L. plant is an unusual storage system with similar amounts of starch and lipid. The extraction of its oil employing both mechanical pressing and aqueous enzymatic extraction (AEE) methods was investigated and an examination of the resulting products was carried out. The effects of particle size and moisture content of the tuber on the yield of tiger nut oil with pressing were initially studied. Smaller particles were found to enhance oil yields while a range of moisture content was observed to favour higher oil yields. When samples were first subjected to high pressures up to 700 MPa before pressing at 38 MPa there was no increase in the oil yields. Ground samples incubated with a mixture of α- Amylase, Alcalase, and Viscozyme (a mixture of cell wall degrading enzyme) as a pre-treatment, increased oil yield by pressing and 90% of oil was recovered as a result. When aqueous enzymatic extraction was carried out on ground samples, the use of α- Amylase, Alcalase, and Celluclast independently improved extraction oil yields compared to oil extraction without enzymes by 34.5, 23.4 and 14.7% respectively. A mixture of the three enzymes further augmented the oil yield and different operational factors were individually studied for their effects on the process. These include time, total mixed enzyme concentration, linear agitation speed, and solid-liquid ratio. The largest oil yields were obtained with a solid-liquid ratio of 1:6, mixed enzyme concentration of 1% (w/w) and 6 h incubation time although the longer time allowed for the formation of an emulsion. Using stationary samples during incubation surprisingly gave the highest oil yields, and this was observed to be as a result of gravity separation occurring during agitation. Furthermore, the use of high pressure processing up to 300 MPa as a pre-treatment enhanced oil yields but additional pressure increments had a detrimental effect. The quality of oils recovered from both mechanical and aqueous enzymatic extraction based on the percentage free fatty acid (% FFA) and peroxide values (PV) all reflected the good stabilities of the oils with the highest % FFA of 1.8 and PV of 1.7. The fatty acid profiles of all oils also remained unchanged. The level of tocopherols in oils were enhanced with both enzyme aided pressing (EAP) and high pressure processing before AEE. Analysis on the residual meals revealed DP 3 and DP 4 oligosaccharides present in EAP samples but these would require further assessment on their identity and quality.