Influence-matrix diagnostic of a data assimilation system

The influence matrix is used in ordinary least-squares applications for monitoring statistical multiple-regression analyses. Concepts related to the influence matrix provide diagnostics on the influence of individual data on the analysis - the analysis change that would occur by leaving one observation out, and the effective information content (degrees of freedom for signal) in any sub-set of the analysed data. In this paper, the corresponding concepts have been derived in the context of linear statistical data assimilation in numerical weather prediction. An approximate method to compute the diagonal elements of the influence matrix (the self-sensitivities) has been developed for a large-dimension variational data assimilation system (the four-dimensional variational system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). Results show that, in the boreal spring 2003 operational system, 15% of the global influence is due to the assimilated observations in any one analysis, and the complementary 85% is the influence of the prior (background) information, a short-range forecast containing information from earlier assimilated observations. About 25% of the observational information is currently provided by surface-based observing systems, and 75% by satellite systems. Low-influence data points usually occur in data-rich areas, while high-influence data points are in data-sparse areas or in dynamically active regions. Background-error correlations also play an important role: high correlation diminishes the observation influence and amplifies the importance of the surrounding real and pseudo observations (prior information in observation space). Incorrect specifications of background and observation-error covariance matrices can be identified, interpreted and better understood by the use of influence-matrix diagnostics for the variety of observation types and observed variables used in the data assimilation system. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society

Selfish genetic elements favor the evolution of a distinction between soma and germline

Many multicellular organisms have evolved a dedicated germline. This can benefit the whole organism, but its advantages to genetic parasites have not been explored. Here I model the evolutionary success of a selfish element, such as a transposable element or endosymbiont, which is capable of creating or strengthening a germline-soma distinction in a primitively multicellular host, and find that it will always benefit the element to do so. Genes causing germline sequestration can therefore spread in a population even if germline sequestration is maladaptive for the host organism. Costly selfish elements are expected to survive only in sexual populations, so sexual species may experience an additional push toward germline-soma distinction, and hence toward cell differentiation and multicellularity.

Diverse mariner-like elements in fig wasps

Mariner transposable elements are widespread and diverse in insects. We screened 10 species of fig wasps (Hymenoptera: Agaonidae) for mariner elements. All 10 species harbour a large diversity of mariner elements, most of which have interrupted reading frames in the transposase gene region, suggesting that they are inactive and ancient. We sequenced two full-length mariner elements and found evidence to suggest that they are inserted in the genome at a conserved region shared by other hymenopteran taxa. The association between mariner elements and fig wasps is old and dominated by vertical transmission, suggesting that these 'selfish genetic elements' have evolved to impart only very low costs to their hosts.

The genome strikes back: The evolutionary importance of defence against mobile elements

Increasingly, we regard the genome as a site and source of genetic conflict. This fascinating 'bottom-up' view brings up appealing connections between genome biology and whole-organism ecology, in which populations of elements compete with one another in their genomic habitat. Unlike other habitats, though, a host genome has its own evolutionary interests and is often able to defend itself against molecular parasites. Most well-studied organisms employ strategies to protect their genomes against the harmful effects of genomic parasites, including methylation, various pathways of RNA interference, and more unusual tricks such as repeat induced point-mutation (RIP). These genome defence systems are not obscure biological curiosities, but fundamentally important to the integrity and cohesion of the genome, and exert a powerful influence on genome evolution.

The coordination chemistry of 1,2,4-triazinyl bipyridines with lanthanide(III) elements - implications for the partitioning of americium(III)

It has been established that 6-(5,6-dialkyl-1,2,4-triazin-3-yl)-2,2'-bipyridines (R,hemi-BTPs) have properties which are intermediate between those of the terpyridines and the bis(1,2,4-triazin-3-yl)pyridines (BTPs). However, they resemble the terpyridines much more closely than the BTPs. It has been shown that Et, hemi-BTP when dissolved in TPH-a dodecane-like solvent-is a selective reagent for the separation of americium(III) from europium(III). Solution NMR in acetonitrile largely confirmed the crystallographic results. There was no evidence for a 1 : 3 complex cation, or for significant differences between metal(III)-N distances for the pyridine and 1,2,4-triazine rings. Intramolecular hydrogen bonding plays a crucial role in the formation of metal coordination spheres, which explains the differences between the terpyridyl, R,hemi-BTPs and the BTPs. Protonation of the R,hemi-BTPs facilitates a conformational change which is necessary for complexation.

Spatial offset of test field elements from surround elements affects the strength of motion aftereffects

Static movement aftereffects (MAEs) were measured after adaptation to vertical square-wave luminance gratings drifting horizontally within a central window in a surrounding stationary vertical grating. The relationship between the stationary test grating and the surround was manipulated by varying the alignment of the stationary stripes in the window and those in the surround, and the type of outline separating the window and the surround [no outline, black outline (invisible on black stripes), and red outline (visible throughout its length)]. Offsetting the stripes in the window significantly increased both the duration and ratings of the strength of MAEs. Manipulating the outline had no significant effect on either measure of MAE strength. In a second experiment, in which the stationary test fields alone were presented, participants judged how segregated the test field appeared from its surround. In contrast to the MAE measures, outline as well as offset contributed to judged segregation. In a third experiment, in which test-stripe offset wits systematically manipulated, segregation ratings rose with offset. However, MAE strength was greater at medium than at either small or large (180 degrees phase shift) offsets. The effects of these manipulations on the MAE are interpreted in terms of a spatial mechanism which integrates motion signals along collinear contours of the test field and surround, and so causes a reduction of motion contrast at the edges of the test field.

High-performance infrared narrow-bandpass filters for the Indian National Satellite System meteorological instrument (INSAT-3D)

This paper describes the design and manufacture of a set of precision cooled (210K) narrow-bandpass filters for the infrared imager and sounder on the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) INSAT-3D meteorological satellite. We discuss the basis for the choice of multilayer coating designs and materials for 21 differing filter channels, together with their temperature-dependence, thin film deposition technologies, substrate metrology, and environmental durability performance. (C) 2008 Optical Society of America.

The impact of genome defense on mobile elements in Microbotryum

Repeat induced point mutation (RIP), a mechanism causing hypermutation of repetitive DNA sequences in fungi, has been described as a ‘genome defense’ which functions to inactivate mobile elements and inhibit their deleterious effects on genome stability. Here we address the interactions between RIP and transposable elements in the Microbotryum violaceum species complex. Ten strains of M. violaceum, most of which belong to different species of the fungus, were all found to contain intragenomic populations of copia-like retrotransposons. Intragenomic DNA sequence variation among the copia-like elements was analyzed for evidence of RIP. Among species with RIP, there was no significant correlation between the frequency of RIP-induced mutations and inferred transposition rate based on diversity. Two strains of M. violaceum, from two different plant species but belonging to the same fungal lineage, contained copia-like elements with very low diversity, as would result from a high transposition rate, and these were also unique in showing no evidence of the hypermutation patterns indicative of the RIP genome defense. In this species, evidence of RIP was also absent from a Class II helitron-like transposable element. However, unexpectedly the absolute repetitive element load was lower than in other strains.

Equitability revisited: why the “equitable threat score” is not equitable

In the forecasting of binary events, verification measures that are “equitable” were defined by Gandin and Murphy to satisfy two requirements: 1) they award all random forecasting systems, including those that always issue the same forecast, the same expected score (typically zero), and 2) they are expressible as the linear weighted sum of the elements of the contingency table, where the weights are independent of the entries in the table, apart from the base rate. The authors demonstrate that the widely used “equitable threat score” (ETS), as well as numerous others, satisfies neither of these requirements and only satisfies the first requirement in the limit of an infinite sample size. Such measures are referred to as “asymptotically equitable.” In the case of ETS, the expected score of a random forecasting system is always positive and only falls below 0.01 when the number of samples is greater than around 30. Two other asymptotically equitable measures are the odds ratio skill score and the symmetric extreme dependency score, which are more strongly inequitable than ETS, particularly for rare events; for example, when the base rate is 2% and the sample size is 1000, random but unbiased forecasting systems yield an expected score of around −0.5, reducing in magnitude to −0.01 or smaller only for sample sizes exceeding 25 000. This presents a problem since these nonlinear measures have other desirable properties, in particular being reliable indicators of skill for rare events (provided that the sample size is large enough). A potential way to reconcile these properties with equitability is to recognize that Gandin and Murphy’s two requirements are independent, and the second can be safely discarded without losing the key advantages of equitability that are embodied in the first. This enables inequitable and asymptotically equitable measures to be scaled to make them equitable, while retaining their nonlinearity and other properties such as being reliable indicators of skill for rare events. It also opens up the possibility of designing new equitable verification measures.

Meteorology and climate inspire secondary school students

As part of its National Science and Engineering Week activities in 2009 and 2010, the University of Reading organised two open days for 60 local key stage 4 pupils. The theme of both open days was ‘How do we predict weather and climate?’ Making use of the students’ familiarity with weather and climate, several concepts of relevance to secondary science were investigated. The open days also provided an opportunity for more than 30 research staff from the university to interact with the students. Feedback from students and teachers was extremely positive. This article shows how meteorological science can be used to illustrate elements of the secondary science and mathematics curricula.

Application of Gaussian multi-scale representation to feature tracking in meteorological satellite imagery

Gaussian multi-scale representation is a mathematical framework that allows to analyse images at different scales in a consistent manner, and to handle derivatives in a way deeply connected to scale. This paper uses Gaussian multi-scale representation to investigate several aspects of the derivation of atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) from water vapour imagery. The contribution of different spatial frequencies to the tracking is studied, for a range of tracer sizes, and a number of tracer selection methods are presented and compared, using WV 6.2 images from the geostationary satellite MSG-2.

Effects of biochar and the earthworm Eisenia fetida on the bioavailability of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and potentially toxic elements

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and potentially toxic elements (PTEs) were monitored over 56 days in calcareous contaminated-soil amended with either or both biochar and Eisenia fetida. Biochar reduced total (449 to 306mgkg(-1)) and bioavailable (cyclodextrin extractable) (276 to 182mgkg(-1)) PAHs, PAH concentrations in E. fetida (up to 45%) but also earthworm weight. Earthworms increased PAH bioavailability by >40%. Combined treatment results were similar to the biochar-only treatment. Earthworms increased water soluble Co (3.4 to 29.2mgkg(-1)), Cu (60.0 to 120.1mgkg(-1)) and Ni (31.7 to 83.0mgkg(-1)) but not As, Cd, Pb or Zn; biochar reduced water soluble Cu (60 to 37mgkg(-1)). Combined treatment results were similar to the biochar-only treatment but gave a greater reduction in As and Cd mobility. Biochar has contaminated land remediation potential, but its long-term impact on contaminants and soil biota needs to be assessed.

A simple, coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in climate predictions

A simple and coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in multi-model climate ensembles is presented. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) is used to decompose a measure of total variation additively into scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty and internal variability. This approach requires fewer assumptions than existing methods and can be easily used to quantify uncertainty related to model-scenario interaction - the contribution to model uncertainty arising from the variation across scenarios of model deviations from the ensemble mean. Uncertainty in global mean surface air temperature is quantified as a function of lead time for a subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 ensemble and results largely agree with those published by other authors: scenario uncertainty dominates beyond 2050 and internal variability remains approximately constant over the 21st century. Both elements of model uncertainty, due to scenario-independent and scenario-dependent deviations from the ensemble mean, are found to increase with time. Estimates of model deviations that arise as by-products of the framework reveal significant differences between models that could lead to a deeper understanding of the sources of uncertainty in multi-model ensembles. For example, three models are shown diverging pattern over the 21st century, while another model exhibits an unusually large variation among its scenario-dependent deviations.