Correlated observation errors in data assimilation

Data assimilation provides techniques for combining observations and prior model forecasts to create initial conditions for numerical weather prediction (NWP). The relative weighting assigned to each observation in the analysis is determined by its associated error. Remote sensing data usually has correlated errors, but the correlations are typically ignored in NWP. Here, we describe three approaches to the treatment of observation error correlations. For an idealized data set, the information content under each simplified assumption is compared with that under correct correlation specification. Treating the errors as uncorrelated results in a significant loss of information. However, retention of an approximated correlation gives clear benefits.

Improvements to the accuracy of measurements of NO2 by zenith-sky visible spectrometers II: errors in zero using a more complete chemical model

Using a flexible chemical box model with full heterogeneous chemistry, intercepts of chemically modified Langley plots have been computed for the 5 years of zenith-sky NO2 data from Faraday in Antarctica (65°S). By using these intercepts as the effective amount in the reference spectrum, drifts in zero of total vertical NO2 were much reduced. The error in zero of total NO2 is ±0.03×1015 moleccm−2 from one year to another. This error is small enough to determine trends in midsummer and any variability in denoxification between midwinters. The technique also suggests a more sensitive method for determining N2O5 from zenith-sky NO2 data.

Errors associated with the preparation of aseptic products in UK hospital pharmacies: lessons from the national aseptic error reporting scheme

Background Pharmacy aseptic units prepare and supply injectables to minimise risks. The UK National Aseptic Error Reporting Scheme has been collecting data on pharmacy compounding errors, including near-misses, since 2003. Objectives The cumulative reports from January 2004 to December 2007, inclusive, were analysed. Methods The different variables of product types, error types, staff making and detecting errors, stage errors detected, perceived contributory factors, and potential or actual outcomes were presented by cross-tabulation of data. Results A total of 4691 reports were submitted against an estimated 958 532 items made, returning 0.49% as the overall error rate. Most of the errors were detected before reaching patients, with only 24 detected during or after administration. The highest number of reports related to adult cytotoxic preparations (40%) and the most frequently recorded error was a labelling error (34.2%). Errors were mostly detected at first check in assembly area (46.6%). Individual staff error contributed most (78.1%) to overall errors, while errors with paediatric parenteral nutrition appeared to be blamed on low staff levels more than other products were. The majority of errors (68.6%) had no potential patient outcomes attached, while it appeared that paediatric cytotoxic products and paediatric parenteral nutrition were associated with greater levels of perceived patient harm. Conclusions The majority of reports were related to near-misses, and this study highlights scope for examining current arrangements for checking and releasing products, certainly for paediatric cytotoxic and paediatric parenteral nutrition preparations within aseptic units, but in the context of resource and capacity constraints.

Communicating information about medication side effects: effects on satisfaction, perceived risk to health, and intention to comply

Previous research has shown that people's evaluations of explanations about medication and their intention to comply with the prescription are detrimentally affected by the inclusion of information about adverse side effects of the medication. The present study (Experiment 1) examined which particular aspects of information about side effects (their number, likelihood of occurrence, or severity) are likely to have the greatest effect on people's satisfaction, perception of risk, and intention to comply, as well as how the information about side effects interacts with information about the severity of the illness for which the medication was prescribed. Across all measures, it was found that manipulations of side effect severity had the greatest impact on people's judgements, followed by manipulations of side effect likelihood and then number. Experiments 2 and 3 examined how the severity of the diagnosed illness and information about negative side effects interact with two other factors suggested by Social Cognition models of health behaviour to affect people's intention to comply: namely, perceived benefit of taking the prescribed drug, and the perceived level of control over preventing or alleviating the side effects. It was found that providing people with a statement about the positive benefit of taking the medication had relatively little effect on judgements, whereas informing them about how to reduce the chances of experiencing the side effects had an overall beneficial effect on ratings.

Is 15 per cent very common? Informing people about the risks of medication side effects

Objectives - To assess the general public's interpretation of the verbal descriptors for side effect frequency recommended for use in medicine information leaflets by a European Union (EU) guideline, and to examine the extent to which differences in interpretation affect people's perception of risk and their judgments of intention to comply with the prescribed treatment. Method - Two studies used a controlled empirical methodology in which people were presented with a hypothetical, but realistic, scenario about visiting their general practitioner and being prescribed medication. They were given an explanation that focused on the side effects of the medicine, together with information about the probability of occurrence using either numerical percentages or the corresponding EU verbal descriptors. Interpretation of the descriptors was assessed. In study 2, participants were also required to make various judgments, including risk to health and intention to comply. Key findings - In both studies, use of the EU recommended descriptors led to significant overestimations of the likelihood of particular side effects occurring. Study 2 further showed that the "overestimation" resulted in significantly increased ratings of perceived severity of side effects and risk to health, as well as significantly reduced ratings of intention to comply, compared with those for people who received the probability information in numerical form. Conclusion - While it is recognised that the current findings require replication in a clinical setting, the European and national authorities should suspend the use of the EU recommended terms until further research is available to allow the use of an evidence-based approach.

Characterising errors in airborne laser altimetry data to extract soil roughness

Airborne laser altimetry has the potential to make frequent detailed observations that are important for many aspects of studying land surface processes. However, the uncertainties inherent in airborne laser altimetry data have rarely been well measured. Uncertainty is often specified as generally as 20cm in elevation, and 40cm planimetric. To better constrain these uncertainties, we present an analysis of several datasets acquired specifically to study the temporal consistency of laser altimetry data, and thus assess its operational value. The error budget has three main components, each with a time regime. For measurements acquired less than 50ms apart, elevations have a local standard deviation in height of 3.5cm, enabling the local measurement of surface roughness of the order of 5cm. Points acquired seconds apart acquire an additional random error due to Differential Geographic Positioning System (DGPS) fluctuation. Measurements made up to an hour apart show an elevation drift of 7cm over a half hour. Over months, this drift gives rise to a random elevation offset between swathes, with an average of 6.4cm. The RMS planimetric error in point location was derived as 37.4cm. We conclude by considering the consequences of these uncertainties on the principle application of laser altimetry in the UK, intertidal zone monitoring.