Location, location, location? Analysing property rents in medieval Gloucester

Although medieval rentals have been extensively studied, few scholars have used them to analyse variations in the rents paid on individual properties within a town. It has been claimed that medieval rents did not reflect economic values or market forces, but were set according to social and political rather than economic criteria, and remained ossified at customary levels. This paper uses hedonic regression methods to test whether property rents in medieval Gloucester were influenced by classic economic factors such as the location and use of a property. It investigates both rents and local rates (landgavel), and explores the relationship between the two. It also examines spatial autocorrelation. It finds significant relationships between urban rents and property characteristics that are similar to those found in modern studies. The findings are consistent with the view that, in Gloucester at least, medieval rents were strongly influenced by classical economic factors working through a competitive urban property market.

Integrating woodland with pig production in the United Kingdom: an investigation of potential performance and interactions

Although silvopastoral systems involving pigs were once widespread in Britain, the practice has largely died out. However, recent changes in pig production techniques, consumer demands and the economic climate within which farmers operate, have led to renewed interest in both traditional and novel tree-pig systems. This paper describes a financial spreadsheet model (MAST) that was developed to: provide a means of determining financial performance of integrating finishing pigs with natural woodland; identify the likely importance of different as yet largely unresearched animal-tree interactions; and, determine which interactions warrant attention in research and management. Preliminary analysis suggests that the financial performance of this agroforestry enterprise could be superior to that of a pasture-based enterprise. The most important factors in determining incremental performance are identified as sales premia for ‘forest-reared’ pork, changes to feed conversion ratios arising from the provision of a heterogeneous microclimate, and the availability of cheaper land rents.

Integrating natural woodland with pig production in the United Kingdom: an investigation of potential performance and interactions

Although silvopastoral systems involving pigs were once widespread in Britain, the practice has largely died out. However, recent changes in pig production techniques, consumer demands and the economic climate within which farmers operate, have led to renewed interest in both traditional and novel tree-pig systems. This paper describes a financial spreadsheet model ( MAST) that was developed to: provide a means of determining financial performance of integrating finishing pigs with natural woodland; identify the likely importance of different as yet largely unresearched animal-tree interactions; and, determine which interactions warrant attention in research and management. Preliminary analysis suggests that the financial performance of this agroforestry enterprise could be superior to that of a pasture-based enterprise. The most important factors in determining incremental performance are identified as sales premia for 'forest-reared' pork, changes to feed conversion ratios arising from the provision of a heterogeneous microclimate, and the availability of cheaper land rents.

Community mix, affordable housing and metropolitan planning strategy in Melbourne

Income segregation across Melbourne’s residential communities is widening, and at a pace faster than in some other Australian cities. The widening gap between Melbourne’s rich and poor communities raises fears about concentrations of poverty and social exclusion, particularly if the geography of these communities is such that they and their residents are increasingly isolated from urban services and employment centres. Social exclusion in our metropolitan areas and the government responses to it are commonly thought to be the proper domain of social and economic policy. The role of urban planning is typically neglected, yet it helps shape the economic opportunities available to communities in its attempts to influence the geographical location of urban services, infrastructure and jobs. Under the current metropolitan strategy ‘Melbourne 2030’ urban services and transport infrastructure are to be concentrated within Principal Activity Centres spread throughout the metropolitan area and it is the intention that lower-income households should have ready access to these activity centres. However, the Victorian state government has few housing policy instruments to achieve this goal and there are fears that community mix may suffer as house prices and rents are bid up in the vicinity of Principal Activity Centres, and lower-income households are displaced. But are these fears justified by the changing geography of house prices in the metropolitan region? This is the key research question addressed in this paper which examines whether the Victorian practice of placing reliance on the market to deliver affordable housing, while intervening to promote a more compact pattern of urban settlement, is effective.

Lease maturity and initial rent: is there a term structure for UK commercial property leases?

This paper investigates the relationship between lease maturity and rent in commercial property. Over the last decade market-led changes to lease structures, the threat of government intervention and the associated emergence of the Codes of Practice for commercial leases have stimulated growing interest in pricing of commercial property leases. Seminal work by Grenadier (1995) derived a set of hypotheses about the pricing of different lease lengths in different market conditions. Whilst there is a compelling theoretical case for and a strong intuitive expectation of differential pricing of different lease maturities, to date the empirical evidence is inconclusive. Two Swedish studies have found mixed results (Gunnelin and Soderbergh 2003 and Englund et al 2003). In only half the cases is the null hypothesis that lease length has no effect rejected. In the UK, Crosby et al (2003) report counterintuitive results. In some markets, they find that short lease terms are associated with low rents, whilst in others they are associated with high rents. Drawing upon a substantial database of commercial lettings in central London (West End and City of London) over the last decade, we investigate the relationship between rent and lease maturity. In particular, we test whether a building quality variable omitted in previous studies provides empirical results that are more consistent with the theoretical and intuitive a priori expectations. It is found that initial leases rates are upward sloping with the lease term and that this relationship is constant over time.

The production and consumption of commercial real estate market forecasts

Whilst the vast majority of the research on property market forecasting has concentrated on statistical methods of forecasting future rents, this report investigates the process of property market forecast production with particular reference to the level and effect of judgemental intervention in this process. Expectations of future investment performance at the levels of individual asset, sector, region, country and asset class are crucial to stock selection and tactical and strategic asset allocation decisions. Given their centrality to investment performance, we focus on the process by which forecasts of rents and yields are generated and expectations formed. A review of the wider literature on forecasting suggests that there are strong grounds to expect that forecast outcomes are not the result of purely mechanical calculations.

The management of positive inter-store externalities in shopping centres: some empirical evidence

In enclosed shopping centres, stores benefit from the positive externalities of other stores in the centre. Some stores provide greater benefits to their neighbours than others – for example anchor tenants and brand leading stores. In managing shopping centres, these positive externalities might be captured through rental variations. This paper explores the determinants of rent – including externalities – for UK regional shopping centres. Two linked databases were utilised in the research. One contains characteristics of 148 shopping centres; the other has some 1,930 individual tenant records including rent level. These data were analysed to provide information on the characteristics of centres and retailers that help determine rent. Factors influencing tenant rents include market potential factors derived from urban and regional economic theory and shopping centre characteristics identified in prior retail research. The model also includes variables that proxy for the interaction between tenants and the impact of positive in-centre externalities. We find that store size is significantly and negatively related to tenant with both anchor and other larger tenants, perhaps as a result of the positive effects generated by their presence, paying relatively lower rents while smaller stores, benefiting from the generation of demand, pay relatively higher rents. Brand leader tenants pay lower rents than other tenants within individual retail categories.

Tenant mix variety in regional shopping centres: some UK empirical analyses

The variety and quality of the tenant mix within a shopping centre is a key concern in shopping centre management. Tenant mix determines the extent of externalities between outlets in the centre, helps establish the image of the centre and, as a result, determines the attractiveness of the centre for consumers. This then translates into sales and rents. However, the management of tenant mix has largely been based on perceived “optimum” arrangements and industry rules of thumb. This paper attempts to model the impact of tenant mix on the rent paid by retailers in larger UK shopping centres and, hence, the returns made by shopping centre landlords. It extends work on shopping centre rent determination (see Working Paper 10/03) utilising a database of 148 regional shopping centres in the UK, with detailed data for over 1900 tenants. Econometric models test the relationship between rental levels and the levels of retail concentration and diversity, while controlling for a range of continuous and qualitative characteristics of each tenant, each retail product, and each shopping centre. Factor analysis is then used to extract the core retail and service categories from the tenant lists of the 148 shopping centres. The factor scores from these core retailer factors are then tested against rent payable. The results from the empirical analysis allow us to generate some clear analytical and empirical implications for optimal retail management.

Intrinsic and rational speculative bubbles in the U.S. housing market 1960-2011

This paper examines the dynamics of the residential property market in the United States between 1960 and 2011. Given the cyclically and apparent overvaluation of the market over this period, we determine whether deviations of real estate prices from their fundamentals were caused by the existence of two genres of bubbles: intrinsic bubbles and rational speculative bubbles. We find evidence of an intrinsic bubble in the market pre-2000, implying that overreaction to changes in rents contributed to the overvaluation of real estate prices. However, using a regime-switching model, we find evidence of periodically collapsing rational bubbles in the post-2000 market

Capital market expectations and the London office market

The analysis of office market dynamics has generally concentrated on the impact of underlying fundamental demand and supply variables. This paper takes a slightly different approach to many previous examinations of rental dynamics. Within a Vector-Error-Correction framework the empirical analysis concentrates upon the impact of economic and financial variables on rents in the City of London and West End of London office markets. The impulse response and variance decomposition reveal that while lagged rental values and key demand drivers play a highly important role in the dynamics of rents, financial variables are also influential. Stock market performance not only influences the City of London market but also the West End, whilst the default spread plays an important role in recent years. It is argued that both series incorporate expectations about future economic performance and that this is the basis of their influence upon rental values.

The impact of energy performance certificates on the rental and capital values of commercial property assets: some preliminary evidence from the UK

This paper focuses on the effect of energy performance ratings on the capital values, rental values and equivalent yields of UK commercial property assets. Of which a small number are also BREEAM rated, the study is based upon 708 commercial property assets held in the IPD UK Universe drawn from across all PAS segments. Incorporating a range of controls such as unexpired lease term, vacancy rate and tenant credit risk, hedonic regression procedures are used to estimate the effect of EPC rating. The study finds no evidence of a strong relationship between environmental and/or energy performance and rental and capital value. Bearing in mind the small number of BREEAM rated assets, there was a small but statistically significant effect on equivalent yield only. Similarly, there was no evidence that the EPC rating had any effect on Market Rent or Market Value with only minor effects of EPC ratings on equivalent yields. The preliminary conclusion is that energy labelling is not yet having the effects on Market Values and Market Rents that provide incentives for market participants to improve the energy efficiency of their commercial real estate assets.

Office rent determinants: a hedonic panel analysis

It has been frequently observed that office markets are subject to particularly high fluctuations in rents and vacancy levels, thus exposing real estate investors to considerable risk regarding expected future income streams. This paper analyzes the determinants of office rents and their variability over time and across sub-markets to gain insight into the rent price formation and its stability across space and over time. No support is found for the single-market hypothesis which states that arbitrage opportunities effectively align real estate pricing schemes in various parts of city. Instead, the results suggest that the importance of hedonic pricing factors varies both over time and across submarkets.

Green noise or green value? Measuring the price effects of environmental certification in commercial buildings

This paper investigates the price effects of environmental certification on commercial real estate assets. It is argued that there are likely to be three main drivers of price differences between certified and non-certified buildings. First, certified buildings offer a bundle of benefits to occupiers relating to business productivity, image and occupancy costs. Second, due to these occupier benefits, certified buildings can result in higher rents and lower holding costs for investors. Third, certified buildings may require a lower risk premium. Drawing upon the CoStar database of US commercial real estate assets, hedonic regression analysis is used to measure the effect of certification on both rent and price. We first estimate the rental regression for a sample of 110 LEED and 433 Energy Star as well as several thousand benchmark buildings to compare the sample to. The results suggest that, compared to buildings in the same metropolitan region, certified buildings have a rental premium and that the more highly rated that buildings are in terms of their environmental impact, the greater the rental premium. Furthermore, based on a sample of transaction prices for 292 Energy Star and 30 LEED-certified buildings, we find price premia of 10% and 31% respectively compared to non-certified buildings in the same metropolitan area

Building communities: reducing energy use in tenanted commercial property

Reducing energy use in tenanted commercial property requires a greater understanding of ‘buildings as communities’. Tenanted commercial properties represent: (1) the divergent communities that share specific buildings; and (2) the organizational communities represented by multi-site landlord and tenant companies. In any particular tenanted space the opportunity for environmental change is mediated (hindered or enabled) through the lease. This discussion draws on theoretical and practical understandings of (1) the socio-legal relationships of landlords, tenants and their advisors; (2) the real performance of engineering building services strategies to improve energy efficiency; (3) how organizational cultures affect the ability of the sector to engage with energy-efficiency strategies; and (4) the financial and economic basis of the relationship between owners and occupiers. The transformational complexity stems from: (1) the variety of commercial building stock; (2) the number of stakeholders (solicitors, investors, developers, agents, owners, tenants and facilities managers); (3) the fragmentation within the communities of practice; and (4) leasehold structures and language. An agenda is proposed for truly interdisciplinary research that brings together both the physical and the social sciences of energy use in buildings so that technological solutions are made effective by an understanding of the way that buildings are used and communities behave.

The determinants of competitive success in the interwar British radio industry

This article discusses the sources of competitive advantage in the interwar British radio industry. Specifically, it examines why sections of the industry that reaped substantial monopoly rents from the downstream value chain failed to dominate the industry. During the 1920s Marconi (which controlled the fundamental UK patents) had a key cost advantage, as had other members of the ‘Big Six’ electrical engineering firms which formed the BBC and were granted preferential royalties. Meanwhile the valve manufacturers' cartel was also able to extract high rents from set manufacturers. The vertical integration literature suggests that input monopolists have incentives to control downstream production. Yet—in contrast to the gramophone industry, which became concentrated into two huge companies following market saturation in the 1930s—radio retained a much more competitive structure. The Big Six failed to capitalize fully on their initial cost advantages owing to logistical weaknesses in supplying markets subject to rapid technical and design obsolescence. Subsequently, during the 1930s, marketing innovations are shown to have played a key role in allowing several independents to establish successful brands. This gave them sufficient scale to provide strong bargaining positions with input suppliers, negating most of their initial cost disadvantage.